Is José Miranda a Viable Primary First Baseman in 2025?

[Nick Nelson]

He appears to be the de facto 2025 starter at this point, despite having made just 12 starts at first base for the Twins over the past two seasons. 

How comfortable do the Twins feel with this arrangement? How comfortable should they feel?

Image courtesy of Eric Canha-Imagn Images

One thing I really enjoy about writing for the audience here at Twins Daily is that we have a lot of smart, well informed readers who often challenge my thinking in ways that cause me to at least reconsider my views. One such example played out last week, when I shared a series of notes and thoughts on the offseason, and opined that first base is one of the clearest holes on the roster.

"José Miranda is not an option as primary starter, or shouldn't be," I argued. It was a sentiment that received pushback from several people in the comments. Their points were fair. And if I'm being honest, the odds of Miranda being Opening Day starter at first base are probably higher than I initially portrayed, so it's a subject worth exploring more deeply.

Let's break down the merits of José Miranda as Plan A at first base for 2025.

First, I'll outline the case against, in my mind. There are three factors that make it difficult for me to envision the Twins being comfortable with Miranda as their primary starter at first going into next season:

1. He looked very bad defensively at first base as a rookie in 2022, and the team has shown little interest in playing him there since. Of his 182 games started between majors and minors the past two years, only 24 have been at first.
2. The Twins NEED to get better in the field. It was a clear and critical flaw for their team this past season, biting them repeatedly at crucial moments. This factor compounds the shortcomings of Miranda defensively at first base, a position where I believe Rocco Baldelli and the Twins hold effective glovework to be of particularly high importance.
3. Finally, it's just hard to feel super confident Miranda is going to hit. While he enjoyed a scorching midsummer hot streak in 2024, much like he did in 2022, he waned down the stretch and finished the year hurt. Miranda hit zero home runs in the second half and batted .196 in September. 

This isn't meant as a long-term indictment on Miranda. He's still only 26. It's very possible he will eventually be a bat and glove that the Twins can fully trust at first base. But the reality is that up to this point he's played 286 games in the majors, making more than 1,000 plate appearances, and he has produced just 1.8 fWAR total. 

For me, the idea of handing a guy in his situation the Opening Day starting job at first base, an offense-driven position where the Twins could really use some standout production, felt like a nonstarter. But plenty of people disagree, especially in light of the limited resources at play for the front office. So let's examine that side of the argument.

It's very possible that I'm exaggerating in my own mind Miranda's defensive deficiencies at first base. I know he was unequivocally terrible during his most extensive usage there in 2022, but that was then. Though we haven't had a chance to see him play a whole lot of first since, he's graded out better in the small sample, and it's plausible he's made strides behind the scenes as well.

Out of curiosity, I asked my followers on Twitter whether they'd be comfortable with Miranda as primary first baseman next year from a defensive perspective. To my surprise, the yeses outnumbered the nos by nearly two to one. 

 

Even if Miranda isn't expected to be great first baseman, you can make the argument that first base is a position where being merely capable is fine. While you're involved in a lot of plays, a good majority of them are pretty routine. At 6-foot-2, he has the size to offer a solid target radius for infielders. 

So let's talk about the bat. Clearly Miranda has the upside to profile as a quality hitter at first base, or even an elite one. It's just a question of how much he can be counted on to sustainably harness that ability. He had a .299/.340/.472 line heading into September last year. You'd happily take that at first, even when accompanied by mediocre defense. His final OPS+ of 112, even with the season-ending slump incorporated, represents the kind of above-average production you're looking for at a bat-first position. And Miranda has a .306/.363/.489 career slash line at Triple-A.

 

For a good portion of the season, Miranda was one of Minnesota's best hitters. His final numbers were dragged down by that late drop-off, which was clearly affected by injury. It's not overly optimistic to believe, or at least hope, the lower back strain will fully clear up during the offseason and he'll finally pull it all together at age 27 in 2025.

In fact, it's the sort of thing that the Twins front office has little choice but to put their faith in. At the end of the day, I think this is probably the most convincing argument to be made in favor of going with Miranda as first baseman in 2025. We can all acknowledge that ideally the team might add at least another Carlos Santana type stopgap so that they aren't entirely dependent on Miranda rebounding from his second half at the plate and holding his own defensively. But the Twins can't afford much in the way of luxuries. 

Given ownership's financial impositions, the front office is going to really have to pick their battles in terms of where they can add and upgrade this offseason. I felt strongly that first base was one spot they'd prioritize over perhaps any other. I still feel that way to an extent, but after thinking it through more deeply, I can certainly give credence to the opposite view. Miranda is a talent worth betting on.

It's going to be interesting to track. Following the retirement of Alex Kirilloff, first base is among the most intriguing decision points on the roster this offseason.

View full article

[bean5302]

There are yellow flags with Miranda, and aspects of his game which put a real hard ceiling on him, but I think the floor looks pretty solid as well.

With any pre-arb player, there are reasons to speculate on how sustainable performance is, but Miranda has as much going for him as any pre-arb background character guy slated for an every day starter position.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

They handed him the keys before, that did not go well.  If they choose to go that route again, I sincerely hope they have a plan B in place.

That being said, there is reason to be optimistic here.  I would not fault the Twins for giving him a shot.  If so, they need to tell him NOW so he knows what he needs to work on defensively this offseason.

[tony&rodney]

Miranda is a hitter by trade. This is why he has been moved up the line and why many see him as a reasonable player to fill first base.

The 2024 Twins were horrible on defense and on the bases. They committed few errors because the fielders couldn't get to the batted balls in play. To me, this is a problem. To be fair I was a pitcher and never liked needing to get four or more outs each inning. It results in many more thrown pitches and has a cumulative negative effect on the entire pitching staff. I understand and accept the opinion that many people do not believe that fielding is that important. 

Jose Miranda is weak at first base. He is actually better at third base but still poor. I could actually see him improving more at third base than at first base because the hot corner is more instinctual. Then again, Miranda is pretty slow too.

I would keep Miranda unless another team feels he fits their needs and offers the Twins somebody that Minnesota wants in return. Jose fits fine as a DH and is useful as a reserve as well. 

Who plays first base then? I don't know. That is Falvey's problem. I would move Royce Lewis to first base, which has already been almost universally rejected by those on TD. 

[nicksaviking]

I know a lot of fans won't like it, but if this team doesn't have money to spend, they need to use 2025 to evaluate the in house options. That means see if the younger guys can play and hold down specific defensive positions and let them take their lumps and hopefully improve with repetition against same handed pitching.

They should have done it last year when they slashed payroll and didn't get a Sonny Gray replacement, but it's too late now. They can't just avoid these trials and expect them to magically transpire when they're out of options or when they have to make tough arbitration decisions.  

[umterp23]

Whether we believe it is Miranda or not for 1st base, trade market might be more reliable.  We talk about having some depth in minor leagues for multiple positions, why not throw a package together and take a swing for Mountcastle with the O's.  He seems like he can play first, O's are looking to move him according to some of my MD family as they need some pitching to help solidify their youth balanced team.

 

[farmerguychris]

I sincerely believe it will be a platoon between Miranda against lefties and Julien against righties.  Both can also play other IF possitions, which is unusual for first basemen.  (other than DH).

Hopefully the have asked Julien to keep working on his 1st base footwork over the winter.

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Whether we believe it is Miranda or not for 1st base, trade market might be more reliable.  We talk about having some depth in minor leagues for multiple positions, why not throw a package together and take a swing for Mountcastle with the O's.  He seems like he can play first, O's are looking to move him according to some of my MD family as they need some pitching to help solidify their youth balanced team.

 

What's been talked about is how the Twins do not have any depth. AAA is a ghost farm for positional players.

While the Twins could reach down into the depths of their farm system to package up some future guys, Baltimore isn't going to be interested since they're in their window of competitive play, and Mountcastle will cost $6MM the Twins can't afford to absorb, and he's not a great player.

The Twins will need to trade from their MLB ready players to get Mountcastle, and to get the Orioles to eat salary will be expensive in prospect capital. Marco Raya/Zebby Matthews + Austin Martin or something like that might do it. 

That's also if you believe Mountcastle is actually an upgrade from Miranda, which I don't.

[LambchoP]

There are some really good first baseman available in free agency, but we know that's not happening. There are several interesting trade options though like Mount Castle, Hoskins and a few others. If twins are going to compete for real, they need to bring someone in. Otherwise, with no money to spend, I could see them using this year to debut a lot of young guys and evaluate the talent for next year and beyond. Not what you want to be doing while Buxton, Correa and Lopez are all in their primes. This is when the team should go for it, I just think they lack the motivation to do it at this point. I expect Miranda to be our starter with Severino and maybe Keaschal and Julien as backups. Maybe they go on a spending spree and sign Santana for one more year at five mil lol

[jmlease1]

I do think Miranda can improve at 1B defensively; he basically never played it before MLB and was asked to fill in at the same time that he was really learning 3B still. (he played 2B more than anything in the minors) If there's a full healthy spring training to work on 1B?

My struggle with Miranda is that his splits aren't better against LHP. Especially if he time-shares with Julien. He's been better against RHP and LHP. But the numbers are still relatively small, so hopefully that will improve?

But I do still have a lot of hope for Miranda as a hitter and player

[chpettit19]

Miranda has the same question for me that nearly every Twins position player has...is he and can he stay healthy? I'm ok with them going into the season with him as the primary 1B (depending on the rest of the roster) if he's 100% healthy and there's no reason to think he has some chronic shoulder thing. He's not going to win a gold glove anywhere, but I think he looked much better at 3B after having put in some work and being healthy. I think he can be serviceable at 1B if he's spending time there this offseason putting in some work on getting better.

Going to be an interesting offseason. Jobs are likely on the line. We're going to see how much Falvey and Rocco trust what they've built to this point. Do they think it was the team we saw the first and last month or the 4 in the middle?

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Miranda has the same question for me that nearly every Twins position player has...is he and can he stay healthy? I'm ok with them going into the season with him as the primary 1B (depending on the rest of the roster) if he's 100% healthy and there's no reason to think he has some chronic shoulder thing. He's not going to win a gold glove anywhere, but I think he looked much better at 3B after having put in some work and being healthy. I think he can be serviceable at 1B if he's spending time there this offseason putting in some work on getting better.

Going to be an interesting offseason. Jobs are likely on the line. We're going to see how much Falvey and Rocco trust what they've built to this point. Do they think it was the team we saw the first and last month or the 4 in the middle?

I agree with this entire post. Though I think unless they win playoff series, the new owner will bring in their own people no matter what, so I'm not certain their jobs in MN are on the line, so much as their future elsewhere.

[thelanges5]

Maybe he can platoon with O’Hearn is he’s made available by the Os?

Question 3 is the biggest one IMO. Can he hit well for the entire season?

if they give him enough reps there in the off-season and spring training, he should be ready defensively.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Can he stay healthy? If he is given the chance to settle in I think he would be ok defensively, but just like all the other Twins players he seems to be hurt a lot. 

[MostlyBones220]

Long time lurker, first time commenter. Just wanted to applaud a journalist for writing an article, receiving feedback from the readers, and revisiting it. Seriously, the only reason I created an account. Good work Mr. Nelson. Love the chatter folks, keep it up!

[Riverbrian]

43 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Maybe he can platoon with O’Hearn is he’s made available by the Os?

Question 3 is the biggest one IMO. Can he hit well for the entire season?

if they give him enough reps there in the off-season and spring training, he should be ready defensively.

The Orioles are retaining O'Hearn.

Miranda has thus far been more effective against right handed pitchers and thus far has been a bad short side platoon option. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It wouldn't shock me if Miranda wound up being a decent first baseman defensively, while hitting reasonably enough to keep the job.  However, it also wouldn't shock me the other way and he washes out.  He's a very strange player.  He has enough of a track record that we should be able to project him better, but that track record was so inconsistent and injury affected that we can't really do that.

For me, I'm ok with him as plan A at 1B.  I also think that is where Julien winds up as well.  They are both as athletic as Arraez, who we were comfortable using there (perhaps only while he was a batting title contender though).  I could see a platoon between the two or perhaps a little more equal time share, like we do with our catching tandem. 

[rv78]

The time is now for some serious thought on IF this team can make the leap to being a contender and not a pretender. In the 8 years under the Falvine regime they have been pretenders. If you look at the players at every fielding position you can make an argument that that specific player just isn't good enough, for some reason or another. Whether it is injury prone, defensive liability, can't hit consistantly or hit against the splits, strikes out too much, blah blah blah, we could go on and on....    Some of you might say Correa, but look at his last 2 seasons. Didn't hit worth a lick in 2023 and only played half a season in 2024. Buxton is an injury waiting to happen everytime he takes the field. Lewis is injury prone and completely fell apart down the stretch in 2024. Miranda isn't skilled enough to be considered a fulltime 3rd baseman, 1st baseman or any baseman. Julien looks to be a AAAA player. Lee hasn't played enough to know even remotely what you have there yet. Larnach and Wallner each have about 2 part-time seasons to look at and while they look to be solid they are streaky and not defensive standouts either. So where do you upgrade, IF that's even an option due to payroll? Are any of these players, quality wise, capable of helping this team get to the next level? Almost everyone is talked about on this site as a problem in one way or another. It is WAY past time to play the young guys consistantly everyday and see what you have. No more Margots, Gallos, Santanas, Farmers, ect, ect. That way has PROVEN not to work. Find out what you have and THEN make moves to correspond accordingly. If Miranda isn't capable of playing 1B, 3B or being a fulltime DH then trade him. The same can be said for any other young player on the major league roster. But first and foremost, the FO and Rocco have to quit trying to make these players be something that they are not, along with playing them where it is basically a new position....  Expecting them to learn the position, playing there.....part-time. They should only be using them where they KNOW it will work..... and they shouldn't be finding that out at the major league level.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Who plays first base then? I don't know. That is Falvey's problem. I would move Royce Lewis to first base, which has already been almost universally rejected by those on TD. 

Lee at 3B, Lewis at 1B and Miranda traded is a perfectly reasonable strategic plan. It might be a year too early to benefit from it because Lee isn't quite ready.

[Blyleven2011]

54 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

 He's a very strange player.  He has enough of a track record that we should be able to project him better, but that track record was so inconsistent and injury affected that we can't really do that.

 

I have to agree with this  , we've seen him play for really only 2 seasons , with 2022 on IL list  almost the entire season ...

Yes it is hard to evaluate Miranda  on what type of player he is going to be , so faŕ we can evaluate his defense as average at best  , but what type of hitter  is he going to be exactly , to many injuries so far , 1 more season  to figure out if healthy , does he have the stamina to play an everyday role , I have seen many players over the years , some are just a first half player and tire the second half ...

Coomer  Was a first half player , he barely hit a homerun in the second half of any season  ...

[Franz]

I say Miranda is not a viable first baseman in 2025. I agree that the current Twins roster is deficient in fielding skill and also in athleticism at several positions, and management/coaching needs to reprioritize those areas.

And I have never agreed with the attitude that you can just give someone a different glove and shift them around the infield to an 'easier' position. Some players have the skills and quickly develop the necessary instincts; it was clear in 2022 that Miranda did not have good instincts at first base. I'm not saying that he can't improve, but he should be learning in the minors.

Miranda has enough potential at the plate that I don't think they should give up on him...hopefully his back doesn't become a chronic problem...but if he is healthy next year and his batting skills return, I would rather see him as a majority-DH and emergency backup rather than a regular at third or first.

[Ricky Vaughn]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

 But first and foremost, the FO and Rocco have to quit trying to make these players be something that they are not, along with playing them where it is basically a new position....  Expecting them to learn the position, playing there.....part-time.

This!!! I'm so tired of them thinking everyone needs to be able to play multiple positions and learn them after getting to the majors. Most players can't do it.

[Reptevia]

I would feel a lot more comfortable with it (playing a 3/4 with marginal offensive upside) if we didn’t have the exact same situation at 2B, 3B, LF, RF and CF and SS half the time. Catcher is shaky also. 

[stringer bell]

I don't think Miranda is proven. He's shown flashes, but his overall numbers both in 2022 and 2024 were brought down to near average by bad finishes. I think he could be okay as a first baseman (league-average in SSS) but he needs to be a much better than average hitter. 

[DocBauer]

I thought Miranda showed a lot of improvement at 3B this season. Enough so that I wouldn't be surprised if a team really needing one didn't reach out to the Twins. His defense at 1B so far has been barely average to average. But he basically never played the position until his rookie season in 2022. He was an injured mess in 2023 who barely played and lost much of the year. And with Santana entrenched there in 2024, he saw limited time.

I understand 1B is different than 3B in many aspects. But if Miranda can improve at 3B, as he has, hard shots and grounders at 3B should translate to being able to handle scoops and some hard shots his way at 1B. It's a reverse position, but one he COULD/SHOULD be able to adjust to with work and experience. Maybe not an ideal comparison, but think Sano shifting there on the fly a few years ago. I'm NOT saying he will or won't be above average with work. I'm saying if he was capable of improving at 3B, why can't he improve at 1B?

The key is the bat and being healthy. We saw the potential with the bat his rookie season before wearing down late. Again, I'm dismissing 2023 for obvious reasons. Healthy again in 2024, he was an above league average offensive player until he hurt his back. (I believe I'm right that it was his back). 

I DON'T dismiss having a good glove at 1B! But unless the FO can make a trade for a young 1B who has just graduated to the ML level and is cost controlled, or a top prospect seemingly ready for MLB, they are going to have to find an internal option that can be "solid" at the position for 2025.

Right now, today, the best #1 option is a good bad, line drive doubles with HR pop and HR potential Miranda. I couldn't care less if he actually continues to hit RHP pitching better than LHP, (something that could easily improve), as he'd be facing RHP 75% of the time anyway. It's not a negative.

As a quick aside, if Julien can get out of his own head and get back to being the confident hitter with a solid approach he was previously, and make some adjustments, I can see him being part of the 1B/DH combination as well. As Miranda could possibly still cover 3B here and there, Julien could still play a little 2B as well. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 hours ago, LambchoP said:

There are some really good first baseman available in free agency, but we know that's not happening. There are several interesting trade options though like Mount Castle, Hoskins and a few others. If twins are going to compete for real, they need to bring someone in. Otherwise, with no money to spend, I could see them using this year to debut a lot of young guys and evaluate the talent for next year and beyond. Not what you want to be doing while Buxton, Correa and Lopez are all in their primes. This is when the team should go for it, I just think they lack the motivation to do it at this point. I expect Miranda to be our starter with Severino and maybe Keaschal and Julien as backups. Maybe they go on a spending spree and sign Santana for one more year at five mil lol

I think Severino will be gone from the Twins.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Lewis, Miranda and Walner all will have breakout seasons and the Twins will win the A.L. Central Division against stiff competition. Jax will start and be an All Star starter. Ryan and Ober will continue to improve and win 12 games each. Lopez will continue to be the ace of the staff. Buck will play 120 games and win a gold glove and hit 30 homers. C4 will hit .300 and play 150 games. Duran, Stewart, Sands and Acala will handle the relief chores adequately. Jeffers will hit .250 with 25 HR. I will DH and win the Triple Crown. I will fill in at relief pitcher with a sub1.00 ERA, when I am not DHing.

[DocBauer]

10 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Lewis, Miranda and Walner all will have breakout seasons and the Twins will win the A.L. Central Division against stiff competition. Jax will start and be an All Star starter. Ryan and Ober will continue to improve and win 12 games each. Lopez will continue to be the ace of the staff. Buck will play 120 games and win a gold glove and hit 30 homers. C4 will hit .300 and play 150 games. Duran, Stewart, Sands and Acala will handle the relief chores adequately. Jeffers will hit .250 with 25 HR. I will DH and win the Triple Crown. I will fill in at relief pitcher with a sub1.00 ERA, when I am not DHing.

You almost had me until you winning the triple crown.

I hear your K rate is too high. 🤪

[Fatbat]

It doesn’t look great on paper now but what if his defensive skill growth is adequate and he is a monster at the plate.  Would he look better on paper with a 2.4 fWar in ‘25 after starting 140 games at 1B? 

[RpR]

On 11/4/2024 at 10:40 PM, Fatbat said:

It doesn’t look great on paper now but what if his defensive skill growth is adequate and he is a monster at the plate.  Would he look better on paper with a 2.4 fWar in ‘25 after starting 140 games at 1B? 

Miranda was better at third than Lewis and had a better bat than Lewis; leave him at third, don't screw him up, or trade him while he has value.