Minnesota Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Right Field

Last year was an extreme test on Wallner's ability to adjust & maintain his power. He past & IMO he came back as a better fielder from AAA, which has been a long time coming. I still don't like his SO rate hopefully he'll see the need to get better there. Thanks to Wallner we are solid in RF.

Strikeouts are fine for a leadoff hitter. There's nobody on base to advance with a groundout.

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

as a slow-running power threat

Matt Wallner isn't slow. His sprint speed is 55th percentile, or basically average. In fact, the only runners on the Twins who were faster than Wallner last season were Castro, Martin, Helman and Buxton. He's a step faster than Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/142?view=statcast&nav=running&season=2024

If you're looking for a slow runner on the Twins roster, it's Brooks Lee.

i'll start believing when that K rate drops below 25% . that goes for all our K kings.. it just takes away the enjoyment of the game watching these guys flail away at ball out of the zone and then watch strike 3 go by. This team is going no where until they cut down on the K's

10 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

i'll start believing when that K rate drops below 25% .

That's not going to happen for Wallner. His approach will never lead to a below-average strikeout rate. Guess you'll never be a "believer".

Wallner had an “outstanding” season in 2024? He hit .259 in 223 at bats with 13 homers and 37 RBIs, which was solid but a small sample size. I think he is capable of 30/100, but let’s hold the accolades until he proves this over an entire season, hopefully in 2025.

Many reasons to  be optimistic with Wallner, but currently still falls into the same category as Castro, Miranda, Larnach...  We need to see more of the same.  Maintain and/or grow, do not regress.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Strikeouts are fine for a leadoff hitter. There's nobody on base to advance with a groundout.

Matt Wallner isn't slow. His sprint speed is 55th percentile, or basically average. In fact, the only runners on the Twins who were faster than Wallner last season were Castro, Martin, Helman and Buxton. He's a step faster than Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/142?view=statcast&nav=running&season=2024

If you're looking for a slow runner on the Twins roster, it's Brooks Lee.

IMO sprint speed is deceiving. We need to know the distance they use in their calculations. We all know Wallner has very good top-end speed once he gets going but the fact is how long does it takes for him to get going. He doesn't have that quick burst of speed or instincts that a Brooks Lee has. I'm not trying to take away from Wallner's worth.

Interesting, Nick, that your entire discussion was about his bat.  What the Twins are going to miss is Kepler's play in right field.  Will acknowledge that even Kepler didn't seem like himself out there at times last year.  Although he was one of my favorite Twin, I understand it was time for the Twins to move on.

The player I see out there is a big lumbering man who has almost zero quickness.  Yes, he has a cannon for an arm, however, there are a lot of balls he won't get to and others he will misplay.  Will his bat overcome those runs that will score because he didn't make a certain play.  Probably, but having him out there doesn't help the Twins improve their less than stellar defense.

So count me among those who can't wait to see EmRod and Jenkins arrive so Wallner can split his time between being a backup right fielder who gets most of his at bats as DH.

Why isn't Rodriguez listed among the prospects.  Baseball Savant grades his arm at 60.  If Rodriquez makes the team at some point this year, I would think Wallner and Larnach are going to DH and Larnach is a slightly better defender at least by my eye.

While we all would like to be faster rather than slower I think route running is just as important. There are fast outfielders that take poor routes thereby negating their speed and vice versa.  This is the area Wallner needs to improve the most.

A couple of years ago (2023) Wallner looked really rough in the outfield. I'm not so sure he has made much improvement but I feel like I'm getting used to his play. Either way, if Wallner doesn't mash his time out there will be abbreviated because both of the young guys (Jenkins, Rodriguez) can play outfield. It comes down to the bat.

If Wallner can learn to keep his strikeout rate at a manageable level, I could see a 30 HR season for him no problem. One big plus about Wallner is he seems like a tough and durable guy. Twins need more players like that who can remain healthy and on the field throughout the season.

4 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

i'll start believing when that K rate drops below 25% . that goes for all our K kings.. it just takes away the enjoyment of the game watching these guys flail away at ball out of the zone and then watch strike 3 go by. This team is going no where until they cut down on the K's

In a bubble we can complain about K-Rate, but the game has changed in the last 10 years where higher K-rates have become acceptable.  Trading OBP for Slugging % is the norm.

If Wallner were to get his K-Rate to 25% and maintain his other stats, we would be talking about a top 10 player in baseball.  I would be happy if Wallner just got his K-Rate down to the low 30s.

 

I feel pretty good with Wallner as the starter. The power is incredible, and he makes enough contact for it to pay out. While it would be great if he could get better jumps on the ball in RF, he's good enough out there and the arm is definitely a weapon. He's not going to get as much credit for it, because there's not really a stat for bases stopped because the runner was smart enough not to test Wallner's arm and didn't go for the leg double or first to third on a single or something. Runners seem to already know he's got a cannon out there, so if he's fielding the ball cleanly they're not going to run the risk.

The K's aren't fun, but the light tower power makes it worth it. He's been a good RF. He's going to have a stretch or two that will be ugly, but he's also shown that he doesn't expand the zone too much even when he's struggling, which is the sign of a disciplined hitter.

The depth right now isn't great? Larnach can certainly play there (I would assume that they would slide him over rather than waste Bader in RF), but there's not a lot of natural RF guys in the wings if Wallner goes down. Fortunately, he appears to be made out of oak?

Wallner has been very productive. Hopefully we can get a full season of that.

13 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

He's not going to get as much credit for it, because there's not really a stat for bases stopped because the runner was smart enough not to test Wallner's arm and didn't go for the leg double or first to third on a single or something. Runners seem to already know he's got a cannon out there, so if he's fielding the ball cleanly they're not going to run the risk.

Wallner does have a cannon and he is also pretty accurate. There is a hitch though that still needs further correction. Wallner is pretty slow on his transfer and release, partially negating the arm. In fact, teams that run (Cleveland being one) do not hesitate on Wallner. It is something Matt has to refine to stop guys like Kwan and Ramirez going first to third. Scoring from second base is usually the secondary plus the read of the batted ball by the base runner. Guys thrown out at the plate are usually testing an inconsistent outfielder. I do believe Wallner could improve quite a bit this season in RF knowing he is counted on to be a full time regular.

I can see it now as Wallner is making his acceptance speech in Canton, OH, having hit 800 career home runs and registered 150 career WAR. "My only regret is MinnInPA on the TwinsDaily forums never became a believer because I wasn't able to put up 7 consecutive seasons with a 1.200 OPS AND simultaneously get below 25% strike out rates.

Will someone please notify the McKinley Resting Place that Matt Wallner is planning to make an acceptance speech someday down the road?

Matt Wallner is, indeed, a very, very bad OF. His OF jumps are amongst the worst, if not THE worst, in the entire league. Of 180 OF that played at least 10 balls, he covered the least ground, tied with a DH. In 2023 he was 178/181 OF beating out 2 players that teams rightfully have moved to DH, and a player that decided to hang em up. 

His arm doesn't make up for all of that, but it does help make it a bit more acceptable. 

Obviously his power is the reason he's in the majors. But with that K-rate there WILL be extremely bad stretches. There will be 2-3 week periods where he's hitting under .100. But there will also be week-long stretches where his bat alone wins games. 

He's going to be very frustrating, but should be somewhere in the 2.5-3.0 WAR range at the end of the year. I'm actually encouraged to see his K-rate at 25% in spring, a nice improvement from the 39% he showed last spring training which obviously foretold a very, very rough start to the season. 

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Matt Wallner is, indeed, a very, very bad OF. His OF jumps are amongst the worst, if not THE worst, in the entire league. Of 180 OF that played at least 10 balls, he covered the least ground, tied with a DH. In 2023 he was 178/181 OF beating out 2 players that teams rightfully have moved to DH, and a player that decided to hang em up. 

His arm doesn't make up for all of that, but it does help make it a bit more acceptable. 

Obviously his power is the reason he's in the majors. But with that K-rate there WILL be extremely bad stretches. There will be 2-3 week periods where he's hitting under .100. But there will also be week-long stretches where his bat alone wins games. 

He's going to be very frustrating, but should be somewhere in the 2.5-3.0 WAR range at the end of the year. I'm actually encouraged to see his K-rate at 25% in spring, a nice improvement from the 39% he showed last spring training which obviously foretold a very, very rough start to the season. 

 

His throwing accuracy is a butt clenching item.

In his interview the other day, he said Baldelli called him Iron Bone.

This year is his chance to show if he average, or not.