Do the Twins Already have their Lefty Bullpen Arm?

[Greggory Masterson]

It’s been on many fans’ shopping lists, but it really doesn’t seem like the Twins will be bringing in a left-handed reliever. Maybe one reason is that they already have a candidate with a higher ceiling than most potential targets.

Image courtesy of © Gary Cosby Jr. via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Even if you knew the name Connor Prielipp a couple years ago, you may have forgotten about him since. The Twins used the 48th overall pick of the 2022 MLB Draft on the southpaw out of Alabama. The Twins were ecstatic to take a chance on Prielipp, who entered the season as a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick but fell to the Twins in the second round due to an elbow injury.

I’ll give you 10 seconds to get your jokes off about the Twins acquiring another guy with bad medicals for a discount. Yes, yes, I know. I remember Tyler Mahle. You don’t forget Tyler Mahle. You know what, I’ll name some myself. Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Kenta Maeda, Chris Paddack. Now, let’s get back to business.

Prielipp, despite the questions, still had one of the highest ceilings for a pitcher in the draft, and after selecting a low-risk guy like Brooks Lee in the first round, the team probably felt a little more comfortable taking a gamble. Picks flop all the time, so why not take a chance on a potential frontline starter?

Well, after throwing two innings in 2023, Prielipp went under the knife again. There were more concerns about his elbow. This time they inserted an internal brace. The internal brace is a newer procedure that addresses the same issues as Tommy John surgery.

Now, obviously, Prielipp has missed a lot of time. He threw 13 and two-thirds innings between 2021 and 2023. He’s been labeled with the injury-prone red flag. But it’s worth considering how warranted that label is right now. Prielipp has effectively had one injury that has kept him sidelined for most of the last four years. He had a UCL tear. The surgery didn’t do its job. That’s not really the same as having a string of injuries or chronic soft-tissue issues. It’s one injury that’s taken a long time to recover from, and we’ve gotten pretty good at treating elbows.

That’s not to say that the injury isn’t a bad thing. It definitely is. You’d prefer he’d have had one elbow surgery, or—even better—none. But it’s worth reserving a little judgment until he’s actually recovered from his one injury.

Prielipp did make his triumphant return to pro ball last summer, and it looked good. We’re limited in what information we can gather from games in the low minors. Here’s some stuff that we do know. He started nine games. He never went over three innings pitched. He never reached 50 pitches. He dominated.

He allowed one baserunner across two innings in each of his starts in Rookie ball and Low-A Ft. Myers, striking out nine in four innings. He struck out 32 hitters in 19 1/3 innings (41.6 K%) at High-A Cedar Rapids, with a WHIP under 1.00 and a 3.26 ERA, though he walked 10% of the batters he faced. His DRA- (a stat that controls for factors including defense, park, and opponent quality) was a 58, with 100 being league-average in his seven high-A starts. I know, I'm really scraping the bottom of the barrel for this information, but that's all we've got.

He embarrassed low-minors hitters. But that doesn’t mean he is ready for the bigs, of course. Unfortunately, we also have limited data on how his pitches looked. We know that in his one start with Ft. Myers, he threw about half fastballs and his slider and changeup about a quarter of the time each.

His slider is his calling card, and for the only game we have metrics on, he was throwing it 86 MPH with three inches of glove-side movement and negative two inches of induced vertical break. It’s already MLB-ready, with public evaluations grading it out as a 60- or 70-grade pitch on the 20-80 scale, better known as plus-plus, bordering on elite. Scouts noticed it wasn’t quite as lively in his return, but it was still a great offering, and it might take a little time to get it back, anyway.

His four-seam fastball is also nice, and he was throwing it 94-96 MPH in the game we have access to. Scouts have generally said it’s already MLB-ready, but it will never be on the same level as his slider, though it might already be a plus pitch. The changeup was a work in progress in college and will likely continue to be, but it’s already at least usable and sits around 86-87 MPH with an intriguing 16 inches of arm-side break.

And here’s the beautiful thing about pitchers: if the stuff plays, it plays.

If healthy, Prielipp might not need much time to prove himself. Like many recovering from elbow surgery, his biggest hurdle is probably his control, which was already the weakest part of his profile. But it’s not unreasonable to think that after six weeks or so of minor-league ball in 2025, he could be knocking on the door to the big leagues.

There’s some optimism that he could still eventually be a frontend rotation piece. That optimism doubles as an apprehensiveness to move a 24-year-old to the bullpen, even temporarily. However, given that Prielipp has thrown 58 total innings since high school in 2019, spending a year in the bullpen might not be the worst thing for his development. He’s not going to be throwing beaucoup innings, even if he’s healthy and in a rotation. There’s a clear argument to not waste any of those bullets in Double A. That phrase often gets thrown around, used to mean “burn him out before his arm falls off,” but that’s not necessarily the case here. If he’s going to be getting used to throwing again, and the stuff plays in the bigs, why not is the question.

Many worry that good arms sent to the pen never come out. But Prielipp is a special case, and we don’t have to look far to find a player who made it work. Garrett Crochet went straight from the draft to the 2020 White Sox bullpen because he was ready for it. He spent all of 2021 in the pen, mainly as a lefty short relief guy. He missed 2022 due to elbow injury, before returning to the pen in 2023. There were questions, as recently as nine months ago, about whether he’d ever start. Now we know how that turned out, as he was a deserving All-Star in 2024 and made 32 starts. Why not give Prielipp a similar chance if he is healthy? He might be destined for the pen, anyway.

But he’s also got the ability to be substantially better than internal options Brent Headrick and Kody Funderburk today. There's maybe one remaining free agent I’d prefer as the lefty in the pen over Prielipp, if he’s healthy. I guess that I need to keep adding that disclaimer because it’s the key here. But why not? Even if the Twins make a trade for a lefty option, it’s almost assuredly going to be someone in the Steven Okert mold.

Just turn Prielipp loose and see what happens.

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[thelanges5]

Does he start 2025 at AA Wichita?

[Doctor Gast]

I was thinking the same thing Gregg. I thought Prielipp was going to the pen, he might make it to the bigs, he's a LHP, we need a LHRP. You add everything up, it all adds up. His health is my main concern & his control especially having TJ. Committing him to the BP is a step in the right direction. Hope it all works out because we could really use his stuff, I also put Canterino in that camp. They have to be managed right.

[tony&rodney]

Nash Walker has a video blurb up on Connor Prielipp suggesting his use in the pen, or at least positing that it may be a solution of sorts. 

The Twins have been a little stubborn about keeping Matt Canterino in a starting pitcher role but I think there is a chance to use Prielipp. FWIW, he has great stuff in the half dozen outings I saw last summer via milb.com

 

[Blyleven2011]

I like this idea ...

Preillip and canterino are getting older and probably have the best stuff ...

Because of injuries the haven't pitched alot of innings in the minors  , I'm ready to see these two as bullpen options sometime in 2025 .

Like the article said crochet went right to the bullpen for Chicago  , so because there getting older , it's worth the risk to see what they can accomplish and develop in a major league bullpen to limit their innings , doesn't have to be pressure situations , their pitches are major league ready , so let them pitch to major league ball players  ...

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

And here’s the beautiful thing about pitchers: if the stuff plays, it plays.

If healthy, Prielipp might not need much time to prove himself.

It does make me wonder, if Prielipp is already on the verge of helping the major league team with only 30 minor league innings under his belt, why do most prospects need to spend so much time developing, at least when it comes to college arms like Prielipp? Clearly he has some special stuff given how highly he was drafted, but it makes me wonder if some college pitchers were moved to the bullpen quicker we could see more MLB results compared to the usual struggles of minor league pitchers becoming viable starters and waiting until year 2-4 of their careers to move them to the pen.

But it's a no-nonsense move to put him and Canterino in the pen at this point in their careers, they are likely to never have the durability to make it as starters. Might as well extract what you can from their dynamic arms while they are healthy.

[Greggory Masterson]

5 minutes ago, Danchat said:

if Prielipp is already on the verge of helping the major league team with only 30 minor league innings under his belt, why do most prospects need to spend so much time developing, at least when it comes to college arms like Prielipp?

You'll generally see an arm like Prielipp move pretty quickly, but we're talking about about a college arm that was pushing #1 in the draft before injury. For instance, Fangraphs already had his slider as a 70-grade offering before he was drafted. Not all prospects are like that, even high-end college arms.

Second, part of the reason that starters are held in the minors is to build up their arms to handle a full-season workload and pitching every 5 days, which they often don't in college. For a guy like Prielipp who might max out at 60 innings on a normal recovery plan next year, given that he hasn't thrown 60 in the previous 4 years combined, it makes a little more sense.

It worked with Crochet, but again that's in part because he's one of the guys who immediately had the stuff to make it work. During that draft evaluators had him pegged as the one guy most people were confident could actually move to the majors for a playoff run.

[PatPfund]

For sure, I'd give him a taste in Spring Training with a planned start in St Paul, and let his pitching determine next moves.

[Greggory Masterson]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have been a little stubborn about keeping Matt Canterino in a starting pitcher role but I think there is a chance to use Prielipp.

I would be shocked if the Canterino starting efforts weren't over

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Does he start 2025 at AA Wichita?

Just start him in the major league All-Star Game and cut out all this in-between stuff.

[Linus]

I am all for letting him work out of the pen and giving him some high level opportunities.  However we have to remember that any really good D1 player is going to do well in A ball.  He hasn’t got anybody out in AA or above so the idea that he is going to help the big league club this year is a long shot.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

He hasn’t got anybody out in AA or above so the idea that he is going to help the big league club this year is a long shot.

It is totally a long shot, perhaps similar to Crochet. I have no idea how Prielipp will do but his pitches should play if his health holds.

[Brandon]

I can see him getting more three or four inning starts in AA with a call up to the pen in June.  If he has a future as a starter he can move to the rotation in 2026.  

[mnfireman]

Most on this board will say "No."

Give the kid a shot in ST and if he earns it, call him up May 1st to delay his MLB clock and let others fail... [insert sarcasm emoji here]

[Jocko87]

I don’t say this lightly as the resident optimist, but seeing him in the bullpen this year is a huge stretch. 

It is his destiny but the hurdles he will have to clear even to see 50 total innings are immense. 

Next year…

[Jocko87]

There is a better chance someone from the June draft makes it to the pen this year.  

[Twinsgypsy]

8 hours ago, Danchat said:

It does make me wonder, if Prielipp is already on the verge of helping the major league team with only 30 minor league innings under his belt, why do most prospects need to spend so much time developing, at least when it comes to college arms like Prielipp? Clearly he has some special stuff given how highly he was drafted, but it makes me wonder if some college pitchers were moved to the bullpen quicker we could see more MLB results compared to the usual struggles of minor league pitchers becoming viable starters and waiting until year 2-4 of their careers to move them to the pen.

But it's a no-nonsense move to put him and Canterino in the pen at this point in their careers, they are likely to never have the durability to make it as starters. Might as well extract what you can from their dynamic arms while they are healthy.

I think as stated that there is still a chance to make Prielipp  a starter down the road because he is only 24 years old, But Canterino is 4 years older and he was overused in college by Rice and that is why he has had continual are issues.  Rice University baseball has a history of doing this to young developing arms.

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, Danchat said:

It does make me wonder, if Prielipp is already on the verge of helping the major league team with only 30 minor league innings under his belt, why do most prospects need to spend so much time developing, at least when it comes to college arms like Prielipp? Clearly he has some special stuff given how highly he was drafted, but it makes me wonder if some college pitchers were moved to the bullpen quicker we could see more MLB results compared to the usual struggles of minor league pitchers becoming viable starters and waiting until year 2-4 of their careers to move them to the pen.

But it's a no-nonsense move to put him and Canterino in the pen at this point in their careers, they are likely to never have the durability to make it as starters. Might as well extract what you can from their dynamic arms while they are healthy.

Building up innings at a major level wastes cost controlled years. Unfortunate for the player. 

[rdehring]

Canterino comes up in May, Prielipp in July.  LOve it.

Still believe Prielipp is a future starter, but this is a great idea in 2025.

[Dman]

I was wondering last year if he might be the answer to a dominant lefty pen arm, but he was pretty erratic outing to outing. While his K rate  was amazing last year just going into the second or third inning he ran into trouble every other game or so.

Such a small sample last year hard to see trends but coming back from TJ it looked like starter innings were out of the question.  Granted this year hopefully he could build up better, but if not what a weapon he would be in the pen. 

the stuff is real as you don’t see many arms with that kind of K rate even at the lower levels.  After essentially two TJs I have to believe they will be extremely careful with him no matter what. The pen sure looks like a good place for him IMO.

[Elliot]

The unfortunate reality for the Twins is that they do not have the budget to build a team in the same way as the larger market/budget organizations. 2025 will sink or swim based on the health of the big 3 on offense, the continued development of young veterans, and the emergence of rookies. 
In terms of rookies, Prielipp sits along side of Lee, Rodriguez, Festa, Matthews, Raya, … as potential breakout contributors. Personally I have no problem with any young pitcher getting his MLB career under way in the BP. To me it is similar to Lee and Lewis, minor league SS’s getting started at different positions. It will work itself out if they have ML ability. 

[nclahammer]

I saw Connor Prielipp pitch on two occasions for Cedar Rapids, at home and at Davenport, and it's easy to buy into the hype.   His stuff is electric.   His 23.1 innings pitched in 2024 at three levels with the Twins is nearly any many IP in his entire college career at Alabama (21 IP in 2020-then COVID; 7 IP in 2021 then TJ surgery.)   The last time the kid pitched more than 50 innings in one season was his junior year in high school in Tomah, WI (2018.)  All of this is not a lot to go off of for an evaluation, but what is there so far, I know has the Minnesota Twins (and fans like me) salivating.     Like Greggory said, the Twins took a gamble when they drafted him, so think of Prielipp as a lottery ticket...and the ping pong balls that have dropped so far are looking pretty good.     Could the rest fall this season?   I sure hope so.

[chpettit19]

I don't want to shut the door on him as a starter, but his innings are going to be severely limited this year. He wouldn't be in my opening day pen, but if he's needed or kicking down the door then by all means put him there at some point. But I'd start him in the minors (AA likely) and have him working 2 innings to start and see how it goes from there. If he continues to dominate then move him up and to the pen to get him MLB experience and limit his innings. Then reassess next year. 

Plenty of relievers get hurt. Sending him to the pen doesn't guarantee him health. If it did, sure make him a reliever and forget about it, but it doesn't. I don't like the idea of giving up their best chance at an ace from the system yet. Be smart and conservative with him in 2025, but all options should remain on the table for his career. Get through 2025 healthy and make a decision on 2026 from there. Having him be Crochet is significantly more valuable than having him be Duran.

[Otaknam]

If Prielipp pitches well at AA and AAA for the first two months, regardless of whether it’s as a starter or BP, I would like to see him with the Twins. Let him throw 60 pitches as a starter and give him some experience in the major leagues. 

[LambchoP]

I say put Prelipp and Canterino in the pen and see how they do in ST. Maybe they earn an opening day place in the pen. If not, let them earn it in AA or AAA. 

[rv78]

Like most Twins players he is a "Hope and a Prayer". You Hope he is good enough to play at the major league level and Pray it is good enough to keep him there.

[Fatbat]

It would be nice if we don’t waste bullets on below average vets that turnstile from team to team. Weather Preillip goes to the pen or Raya/Adams/Canterino, we need to get these young guys to the majors at some point and see who will stick. Every prospect has a unique timeline and Preillip isn’t any different. Its a little surprising that he has been dealing with the same injury for 4 years and it didn’t get fixed sooner. Hopefully its finally behind him and he gets his shot this season!  

[gman]

6 hours ago, Twinsgypsy said:

I think as stated that there is still a chance to make Prielipp  a starter down the road because he is only 24 years old, But Canterino is 4 years older and he was overused in college by Rice and that is why he has had continual are issues.  Rice University baseball has a history of doing this to young developing arms.

That was the history of Wayne Graham long time head coach at Rice. He retired in 2018 and passed away last September.

[gman]

Prielipp will probably take most of 2 years to build up to full time starter innings, whether in the minors or majors. Would you hold your breath until the later part of 2026 to see if he can make it as a big league starter?

[DocBauer]

I don't want to see the Twins give up on him as a starter yet, and I don't think they want to either. Best option, IMO, is to start games at AA and go 2-3 IP as you think best based on pitch counts. He dominates enough at AA, then maybe jump him to AAA when it seems right. 

He can move to the pen later to save his arm, or potentially help the Twins later in the season. You still build up his innings to some degree, but can still preserve some bullets for later in the year. 

I just don't see any way he's ready for a Twins pen role right out of the gate, or early. But I also have doubts about moving him back to being a starter if he's in the pen all of 2025.