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Even if you knew the name Connor Prielipp a couple years ago, you may have forgotten about him since. The Twins used the 48th overall pick of the 2022 MLB Draft on the southpaw out of Alabama. The Twins were ecstatic to take a chance on Prielipp, who entered the season as a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick but fell to the Twins in the second round due to an elbow injury.
I’ll give you 10 seconds to get your jokes off about the Twins acquiring another guy with bad medicals for a discount. Yes, yes, I know. I remember Tyler Mahle. You don’t forget Tyler Mahle. You know what, I’ll name some myself. Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Kenta Maeda, Chris Paddack. Now, let’s get back to business.
Prielipp, despite the questions, still had one of the highest ceilings for a pitcher in the draft, and after selecting a low-risk guy like Brooks Lee in the first round, the team probably felt a little more comfortable taking a gamble. Picks flop all the time, so why not take a chance on a potential frontline starter?
Well, after throwing two innings in 2023, Prielipp went under the knife again. There were more concerns about his elbow. This time they inserted an internal brace. The internal brace is a newer procedure that addresses the same issues as Tommy John surgery.
Now, obviously, Prielipp has missed a lot of time. He threw 13 and two-thirds innings between 2021 and 2023. He’s been labeled with the injury-prone red flag. But it’s worth considering how warranted that label is right now. Prielipp has effectively had one injury that has kept him sidelined for most of the last four years. He had a UCL tear. The surgery didn’t do its job. That’s not really the same as having a string of injuries or chronic soft-tissue issues. It’s one injury that’s taken a long time to recover from, and we’ve gotten pretty good at treating elbows.
That’s not to say that the injury isn’t a bad thing. It definitely is. You’d prefer he’d have had one elbow surgery, or—even better—none. But it’s worth reserving a little judgment until he’s actually recovered from his one injury.
Prielipp did make his triumphant return to pro ball last summer, and it looked good. We’re limited in what information we can gather from games in the low minors. Here’s some stuff that we do know. He started nine games. He never went over three innings pitched. He never reached 50 pitches. He dominated.
He allowed one baserunner across two innings in each of his starts in Rookie ball and Low-A Ft. Myers, striking out nine in four innings. He struck out 32 hitters in 19 1/3 innings (41.6 K%) at High-A Cedar Rapids, with a WHIP under 1.00 and a 3.26 ERA, though he walked 10% of the batters he faced. His DRA- (a stat that controls for factors including defense, park, and opponent quality) was a 58, with 100 being league-average in his seven high-A starts. I know, I'm really scraping the bottom of the barrel for this information, but that's all we've got.
He embarrassed low-minors hitters. But that doesn’t mean he is ready for the bigs, of course. Unfortunately, we also have limited data on how his pitches looked. We know that in his one start with Ft. Myers, he threw about half fastballs and his slider and changeup about a quarter of the time each.
His slider is his calling card, and for the only game we have metrics on, he was throwing it 86 MPH with three inches of glove-side movement and negative two inches of induced vertical break. It’s already MLB-ready, with public evaluations grading it out as a 60- or 70-grade pitch on the 20-80 scale, better known as plus-plus, bordering on elite. Scouts noticed it wasn’t quite as lively in his return, but it was still a great offering, and it might take a little time to get it back, anyway.
His four-seam fastball is also nice, and he was throwing it 94-96 MPH in the game we have access to. Scouts have generally said it’s already MLB-ready, but it will never be on the same level as his slider, though it might already be a plus pitch. The changeup was a work in progress in college and will likely continue to be, but it’s already at least usable and sits around 86-87 MPH with an intriguing 16 inches of arm-side break.
And here’s the beautiful thing about pitchers: if the stuff plays, it plays.
If healthy, Prielipp might not need much time to prove himself. Like many recovering from elbow surgery, his biggest hurdle is probably his control, which was already the weakest part of his profile. But it’s not unreasonable to think that after six weeks or so of minor-league ball in 2025, he could be knocking on the door to the big leagues.
There’s some optimism that he could still eventually be a frontend rotation piece. That optimism doubles as an apprehensiveness to move a 24-year-old to the bullpen, even temporarily. However, given that Prielipp has thrown 58 total innings since high school in 2019, spending a year in the bullpen might not be the worst thing for his development. He’s not going to be throwing beaucoup innings, even if he’s healthy and in a rotation. There’s a clear argument to not waste any of those bullets in Double A. That phrase often gets thrown around, used to mean “burn him out before his arm falls off,” but that’s not necessarily the case here. If he’s going to be getting used to throwing again, and the stuff plays in the bigs, why not is the question.
Many worry that good arms sent to the pen never come out. But Prielipp is a special case, and we don’t have to look far to find a player who made it work. Garrett Crochet went straight from the draft to the 2020 White Sox bullpen because he was ready for it. He spent all of 2021 in the pen, mainly as a lefty short relief guy. He missed 2022 due to elbow injury, before returning to the pen in 2023. There were questions, as recently as nine months ago, about whether he’d ever start. Now we know how that turned out, as he was a deserving All-Star in 2024 and made 32 starts. Why not give Prielipp a similar chance if he is healthy? He might be destined for the pen, anyway.
But he’s also got the ability to be substantially better than internal options Brent Headrick and Kody Funderburk today. There's maybe one remaining free agent I’d prefer as the lefty in the pen over Prielipp, if he’s healthy. I guess that I need to keep adding that disclaimer because it’s the key here. But why not? Even if the Twins make a trade for a lefty option, it’s almost assuredly going to be someone in the Steven Okert mold.
Just turn Prielipp loose and see what happens.
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