There's No Path to a Passing Grade for Twins' Offseason Moves

[Cody Christie]

Some front offices have been very active this winter, while the Twins’ front office has sat on the sidelines and let the market play out. Looking ahead, there is no path to a passing grade for the Twins’ offseason moves. 

 

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

As the offseason unfolds, national outlets are rolling out their early grades for teams based on winter transactions. For the Minnesota Twins, however, it’s hard to envision any scenario where the front office emerges with a passing grade. Ownership-imposed payroll limitations and the reality of subtracting value via free-agent departures and likely salary dumps (while gaining little in return) paint a bleak picture for the weeks leading to spring training.

The Twins are staring down a challenging decision-making process. Key players like Christian Vázquez, Chris Paddack, and Willi Castro are all on expiring, moderately expensive contracts. Minnesota’s current payroll projects are in the neighborhood of $140 million, and the ownership group would like that total to be closer to $130 million. Trading one or more of these players seems likely, but the return is expected to be underwhelming. None of these pieces are the kind of players who command top-tier prospects or impact talent in a deal. Yet, dealing them would weaken the team’s depth, which this front office highly values.

Take Vázquez, for example. The veteran catcher was brought in to stabilize the position and guide the pitching staff. Trading him would leave the Twins heavily reliant on Ryan Jeffers, who has struggled with consistency in the past. Minnesota has added some catching depth this winter by trading for Diego Cartaya. However, Minnesota has employed an even split of playing time behind the plate in recent seasons, and it's not clear that Cartaya would be a viable backstop for 75-plus games. 

Similarly, trading Paddack or Castro removes insurance from an already injury-prone rotation and lineup. If Paddack is dealt, Simeon Woods Richardson or David Festa will slide into the fifth spot in the rotation, which might be an upgrade over Paddack—but would reduce their resiliency in case of an injury. Castro’s value comes from his defensive versatility, but the Twins might be able to use someone like Austin Martin or Michael Helman in a utility role. These are calculated risks, but they only make sense if the front office believes some other players on the roster can take a step forward.

Could Minnesota swing for a bigger deal to alter the trajectory of their offseason? The possibility exists, but it’s not without significant risk. Trading from the young core would be a gamble. The candidates for such a move—Royce Lewis, first and foremost—represent not only the future but also the present hope of sustainable success. The organization has one of baseball’s best farm systems, and prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez or Marco Raya could be used as trade chips. However, depleting the pipeline has long-term consequences that the Twins have historically avoided.

It’s not as if this front office is incapable of pulling off a win-now move. The trade of Luis Arraez for Pablo López is a shining example from two years ago. That deal worked out as close to ideally as the front office could hope, with López anchoring the rotation and signed to a long-term deal with the club. But those kinds of trades are exceedingly rare. It would take another masterstroke for the Twins to escape this offseason unscathed.

On paper, Minnesota might already have the best roster in the AL Central, which some fans might find hard to believe after last year’s collapse. There are no glaring holes on the roster, and they have depth at multiple positions. Many of Minnesota’s top prospects finished last season at Double-A or higher, putting them on a path to debut in 2025. The challenge now is returning to 2023’s level of success, while working within financial constraints. This roster can compete if healthy, but health has been anything but a guarantee for this franchise.

The reality is that the Twins’ front office is operating in a nearly impossible situation. Any significant subtraction will hurt the team’s chances in 2024, while any addition seems unlikely to move the needle enough to justify the cost. Grading this offseason will be about context, but the final marks won't be kind, even understanding the challenges.

Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll must walk a tightrope in the weeks ahead. Their decisions will shape not only the 2025 season, but also the perception of this regime’s ability to build a contender under constraints. No matter what they do, it’s hard to see a path to a grade above a C for this offseason. The pieces don’t fit, the math doesn’t work, and the Twins are left in the unenviable position of trying to tread water while the rest of baseball races ahead.

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What grade has the front office gotten for the offseason so far? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Saving this article for when trade(s) start to happen :)

[thelanges5]

I for incomplete. Hopefully I can change it in the near future ⚾️

[chpettit19]

If they can trade Vazquez and Paddack and sign Kim and Elias Diaz I'd give the FO a passing grade on this offseason.

I want Emma on the opening day roster (assuming he doesn't face plant in spring), but he comes with enough question marks that trading him wouldn't be anything crazy if you can get a legit MLB piece in return for him plus another piece or 2. And that'd earn a passing grade from me.

I also disagree with the "injury prone" label for the rotation. They've been abnormally healthy for 2 straight years now. They're less injury prone than the average MLB rotation. So, losing Paddack (who should be in the pen anyways, if you ask me) isn't really that big of a blow at all.

This was always going to be a tough offseason to thread the needle, but there's still a path to improving the team. It may not be easy, but it's possible.

[LambchoP]

Nothing but minor league signings, a rule 5 draft pickup and a few lottery ticket international signings. Hard to get excited for the season after an off-season like that...

[tony&rodney]

It is certainly possible for the Twins to complete any number of trades from now until the start of the 2025 season. Perhaps Falvey & Sons see little reason to change the current makeup of the team. This is a legitimate stance to take and we have heard and seen that the front office does like the rostered players. 

I'm not privy to any conversations or interests between the Twins and any team in baseball, but deals are always possible. The author mentions Royce Lewis and counts him as a core member of the team. This seems to be a pretty safe statement. At his best Royce is a dynamic third baseman. At his worst, he is a DH/1B player. I'm not accounting for more injuries. I'm in favor of keeping Lewis but would Seattle like him? The return could be rich. Similarly, Matt Wallner has enormous potential but surely Pittsburgh might be willing to make a trade. Same thing regarding Emmanuel Rodriguez. If the Twins have doubts, it seems like a number of teams (PIT, ATL, SDP to start) would return a premium player. Again, I'm just suggesting that opportunities exist not suggesting action.

IMO the Twins seem quite content with their current players and are not very interested in making the types of challenge trades that may boost the team or blow up in their face. They could though. It is a conscious choice by the front office. Nothing but their own opinions is holding back change.

[IndianaTwin]

Out of curiosity, what was the "budget" that was assumed by those of us with incomplete information* throughout the winter of 2021-22? 

Because that number changed pretty dramatically, to the tune of $35.1 million, on March 22. 

To say there's no path to a passing grade in mid-January, when we've barely passed the Baseball Solstice** seems silly. In addition to the aforementioned signing, the Pablo Lopez trade happened on January 20 and the Jake Odorizzi trade on February 17, and those are just the first few late-offseason moves that come to mind.

 

*I.e., all of us on TwinsDaily.
**That date that is midway between the last day of the World Series and Opening Day.  

[Mike Sixel]

Paddock is a "key player"? For what team? I've never felt they were trading Vazquez, and have no idea why anyone else did. 

[Jocko87]

There was never a path in the Twins Daily world.

[Vanimal46]

8 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

There was never a path in the Twins Daily world.

Sure there is. But Falvey is choosing to stand at the park entrance instead of making a decision. 

[Jocko87]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sure there is. But Falvey is choosing to stand at the park entrance instead of making a decision. 

That I don't know what fork in the road you are describing kinda proves my point.

[NYCTK]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Paddock is a "key player"? For what team? I've never felt they were trading Vazquez, and have no idea why anyone else did. 

It was exclusively fans playing Armchair GM, trying to find a way to clear salary. I don't think it'd be a bad idea, but that's because I am on the record of thinking its best to effectively punt this season. And a backup catcher isn't going to have any value at the trade deadline. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

There's No Path to a Passing Grade for Twins' Offseason Moves
No matter what they do, it’s hard to see a path to a grade above a C for this offseason.  - Cody

Last time I checked a C was a passing grade. At least it was for me!

[Heiny]

Considering the payroll, it doesn't make any sense to me to trade any of our young and cheap players because what you are trading for is most likely going to raise the payroll not drop it.  The only players that make any sense to trade are Vasquez, Paddock or Castro.  I don't see us trading someone like Lee, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, or Erod while lowering the payroll and also making the team better.  And while trading Vasquez, Paddock, or Castro may lower the payroll, but making the team better at the same time seems like a very tough task.  I think standing pat at this point may be the best option unless they get some unusually good offer. Which I doubt is going to happen.  Maybe after ST starts and someone on another team gets injured they may get an offer.  Time will tell.

 

[Dman]

Things always looked tight payroll wise for 2025 to me.  I don't see any "big" moves on the horizon for the Twins this year as they are in the process of an ownership change and Payroll feels tight for them without a full understanding of TV revenue.  Couple that with Correa's highest salary and Lopez's increase and the arb raises and it always felt like it would be hard to maneuver in 2025.

This team needs its young players to step up and take over to be successful this year and I think that was the plan when they made those past moves.  You were thinking some of the players like Lewis, Miranda, Lee, Martin and Wallner were going to be there for 2025.  Maybe Rodriquez and Keaschal can be in that mix as well at some point, but to offset what they are paying Correa, Buxton and Lopez they knew they were going to need young players to step up to make it all work.  This is the year it needs to happen as they don't have much room for moves.

[Doctor Gast]

Last offseason was filled with spending money on fringe RPs that never panned out. Adding DeSclavani & Margot's salaries were a waste of money plus Margot took up a valuable roster spot for the whole season & valuable MLB experience for Keirsey. If they had done nothing I would have given them a C because we still had a very good core, if they had filled a couple of minor holes via trades I'd have given them a B+. The idea of the offseason is to become better for the season & seasons to come. But since they spent money & we became worse not only that we did nothing to better ourselves for this season, then I gave them a F.

This season I'd still give them a C if they do nothing. Like last offseason they have done a lot of busy stuff acquiring fringe catchers & 1Bmen that won't make an impact on the team this year. Cartaya could help us next year but not this year. If they trade Vazquez or Castro, I'd give them a D, if they trade both, I'd give them another F & expect another poor season because it'd be hard to replace them. If they have to cut salary & trade Paddack, I'd give them a C+ because Paddack is replaceable. If they don't trade Castro & Vazquez & trade for a high-leverage LHRP then I'd give them a B. If they trade for at least 1 promising young MLB-ready future starting catcher then I'd give them an A.

There is a clear path to have a very successful offseason but that means to stop sitting around & waiting, get up & take that path

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

So, losing Paddack (who should be in the pen anyways, if you ask me) isn't really that big of a blow at all.

I don't think Paddack is needed in the bullpen. Losing him might actually make the team better by subtraction. You're talking about a pitcher who has a total of 0.2 WAR and ERA of 4.90 over the last 5 seasons.

Quote

Castro’s value comes from his defensive versatility, but the Twins might be able to use someone like Austin Martin or Michael Helman in a utility role

That's a 3 WAR hit to the team. They're already one bat short. They can't afford to lose another.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Out of curiosity, what was the "budget" that was assumed by those of us with incomplete information* throughout the winter of 2021-22? 

Because that number changed pretty dramatically, to the tune of $35.1 million, on March 22. 

To say there's no path to a passing grade in mid-January, when we've barely passed the Baseball Solstice** seems silly. In addition to the aforementioned signing, the Pablo Lopez trade happened on January 20 and the Jake Odorizzi trade on February 17, and those are just the first few late-offseason moves that come to mind.

*I.e., all of us on TwinsDaily.
**That date that is midway between the last day of the World Series and Opening Day.  

Thank you for the reminder that the Twins front office hibernates with TC Bear until TwinsFest.

[Craig Arko]

There’s one; complete the sale.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Paddock is a "key player"? For what team? I've never felt they were trading Vazquez, and have no idea why anyone else did. 

I'm with Mr Sixel.  Paddack "key player"?  In his 3 years with TC he has started 22 games and thrown a whopping 115.2 innings.  He's a nothing burger.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Out of curiosity, what was the "budget" that was assumed by those of us with incomplete information* throughout the winter of 2021-22? 

Because that number changed pretty dramatically, to the tune of $35.1 million, on March 22. 

To say there's no path to a passing grade in mid-January, when we've barely passed the Baseball Solstice** seems silly. In addition to the aforementioned signing, the Pablo Lopez trade happened on January 20 and the Jake Odorizzi trade on February 17, and those are just the first few late-offseason moves that come to mind.

 

*I.e., all of us on TwinsDaily.
**That date that is midway between the last day of the World Series and Opening Day.  

Wouldn't the midway point be the baseball equinox.

[gman]

Sign up some new owners. Explain the baseball needs and operations to them. Off season won!

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Wouldn't the midway point be the baseball equinox.

I would argue for that as well, but apparently the "solstice" term has gotten traction. 

https://science.abainternational.org/2025/01/03/a-solstice-and-a-whole-lot-of-scallops/

[farmerguychris]

IF the owners were not planning on selling the team, I envision they would in the near future be looked at nationally like the owners of the Rockies and Pirates - Purely about making as much money as possible.  Ownership change can't come fast enough!

They may not get a passing grade, but if they make money, I bet you can take your failing grade and shove it in their opinion.

[bean5302]

Not sure what the point of this article was. Apologists lining up for their hero, Derek Falvey already, I guess?

The Twins are currently projected as sitting right about 16th or 17th in MLB payroll, and it's unlikely they're going to be much lower than that. It's time to quit whining about it as if Falvey's been building a house with scraps left over from another job site. It'd be nice if the Pohlads were on board with the concept of spend money to make money, but they're not.

There are plenty of paths to a passing grade. Even an "A" available to Falvey, but he usually waits until there is A) a great deal or B) absolutely no deals on the market.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

There are plenty of paths to a passing grade. Even an "A" available to Falvey, but he usually waits until there is A) a great deal or B) absolutely no deals on the market.

Which is why I repeatedly state that it is impossible for me to understand what Falvey has in mind. I know her prefers bats to defense, speed, or athleticism and I know he prefers veteran depth on the roster. How he goes about putting it all together is completely a mystery. In some ways this aligns with the above great deal or no deal, which blithely ignores the needs of the team. Oh well, it is his team. 

[Greglw3]

6 hours ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

There's No Path to a Passing Grade for Twins' Offseason Moves
No matter what they do, it’s hard to see a path to a grade above a C for this offseason.  - Cody

Last time I checked a C was a passing grade. At least it was for me!

I think everyone could agree that if nothing else is done, it’s the worst offseason in baseball and deserves a solid F.

I see the Twins with a question mark at every position.

C-Two substandard catchers return. Both are question marks, both with horrible BA last year.

LF-Larnach has a .236 lifetime BA. Definite ?

CF-Buxton is always a ? due to his missing a colossal amount of games virtually every season.

RF-Wallner would be my pick as most solid but he had to be sent back down last year for K ineptitude. IF he performs as in 2nd half of last season, he’ll be a ? positively answered.

3B Lee-Can he stay healthy and can he rebound from rookie hitting struggles

SS-Correa-Can see stay healthy for the 1st time in 3 years?

2B-Lewis Can he stay healthy and can he overcome a horrid 2nd half slump

1B-?

I do like Martin and Keirsey as insurance but they carry their own ?

My overriding point is how does the Twins FO  feel happy with 8 question marks. Some will be answered positively but highly unlikely all and maybe only 1/3. That’s why they get an F for their miserable offseason.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

I think everyone could agree that if nothing else is done, it’s the worst offseason in baseball and deserves a solid F.

I see the Twins with a question mark at every position.

C-Two substandard catchers return. Both are question marks, both with horrible BA last year.

LF-Larnach has a .236 lifetime BA. Definite ?

CF-Buxton is always a ? due to his missing a colossal amount of games virtually every season.

RF-Wallner would be my pick as most solid but he had to be sent back down last year for K ineptitude. IF he performs as in 2nd half of last season, he’ll be a ? positively answered.

3B Lee-Can he stay healthy and can he rebound from rookie hitting struggles

SS-Correa-Can see stay healthy for the 1st time in 3 years?

2B-Lewis Can he stay healthy and can he overcome a horrid 2nd half slump

1B-?

I do like Martin and Keirsey as insurance but they carry their own ?

My overriding point is how does the Twins FO  feel happy with 8 question marks. Some will be answered positively but highly unlikely all and maybe only 1/3. That’s why they get an F for their miserable offseason.

No. Everybody cannot agree on that as there are other teams who needed to make moves as much or more than the Twins, plus many teams had the budget to make the moves. Instead those teams just wound up being mostly tire-kickers and also rans in competitions for talent so far. Teams like the Orioles and Tigers.

I have to wonder what players you'd consider non-questions...

 

[NYCTK]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

No. Everybody cannot agree on that as there are other teams who needed to make moves as much or more than the Twins, plus many teams had the budget to make the moves. Instead those teams just wound up being mostly tire-kickers and also rans in competitions for talent so far. Teams like the Orioles and Tigers.

I have to wonder what players you'd consider non-questions...

 

What are you talking about? The Tigers are the only team in the AL Central that HAVE done anything to improve. Not to mention they were already better than the Twins and lost basically no one in the off-season. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

2B-Lewis Can he stay healthy and can he overcome a horrid 2nd half slump

Hmm, Lewis has played 7 games in his entire pro career at 2nd base and was not good there.

So he is going to take a proton-neutron energy pill and suddenly hope he is not as bad as Julien.🤪