There's No Path to a Passing Grade for Twins' Offseason Moves

[Greglw3]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Profar got cut by the Rockies in 2023. The Rockies. That's how bad he was. He didn't hit over .280 in 2023 and 2024 combined, he hit .263. So, your stats are already wrong. Because he hit .236 in 111 games with the Rockies. It's why he wasn't able to get more than $1 million last year. 

Yes, he has 3 seasons of 20 or more homers. The first 2 were 20 on the dot and he managed to be a slightly above average hitter in the first one (107 OPS+) and below average in the second one (91 OPS+). And, out of 10 full seasons he's had 4 seasons with double digit HRs. So less than half of his MLB seasons he's even reached 10 HRs.

If you believe in WAR then 3.6 out of his 8.4 total career bWAR came in 2024. Nearly half of his entire career WAR came in that one season. He's the very definition of an outlier and question mark.

He was a very well thought of prospect. And then he played 9 seasons in the majors. Who cares what his prospect ranking in 2010 was? That was 15 freaking years ago. That has nothing to do with whether or not he's had a successful MLB career. Because he hasn't.

Yes, his 2024 was incredible. And a complete and total outlier of a season. There's a reason he isn't signed yet. Every team could have signed him by now and haven't. Because he wants to cash in on his 1 big season with a multi-year deal and teams don't tend to trust outlier seasons in your age 31 season after 9 bad seasons.

The Twins have a lot of guys who have shown flashes before. And were well thought of. If "showing flashes" suddenly makes a guy not a question mark anymore you have to change your list of question marks. Jurickson Profar is a massive question mark. He has 9 seasons of previous MLB play that show that. Maybe he figured something out at the age of 31, but that one season doesn't make him a non-question mark. Sorry, his entire career disagrees with you.

And, yes the Twins get revenue sharing. That isn't a new revenue stream for them. They get that every year. And they also lost well more than $15 million on their TV deal. Those numbers you're throwing out aren't changing their payroll. It's money they already knew they were getting. 

If you think that his most recent season is less predictive of the season to follow than past seasons, you may have a point. I’ve seen many late bloomers over my decades of following baseball.  Nelson Cruz for one.  Many, many others including Mickey Tettleton, etc.

It’s a matter of taste. I am and have been for a couple years a Jurickson Profar fan and you, obviously are not. 

WHat’s your solution? Do you want to go with the same team that was 15 games below .500 for an extended period in crunch time, using 3 rookies in the rotation with horrid offensive struggles MINUS Kepler, Farmer and Thielbar? 

I think the Twins are gonna have to draw an inside straight or close with their young players, Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Rodriguez, Keaschall, Julien, Morris, Festa and Zebby, Keirsey Jr, Martin to be winners in 2025 unless Falvey gets up off his can and makes some real trades to improve the team.

I do like every one of the young guys I named but usually experience counts in MLB and young players struggle. Maybe, Lee, Julien and Lewis have that out of the way.

I, for one, yearn for the outlier Falvey, who only once in his 8 year tenure, went out and kicked ass in the offseason, bringing in almost 100 home runs in C.J. Cron, Schoop and Nelson Cruz. Since, for the last 5 years, the Twins average 81.8 wins per season with the two following the 101 win season being dreadful and last year being a huge disappointment. Now, this historically dreadful offseason so far.

I’m actually an optimist with the Twins, I would have never lasted from 65 to 25 as an unrelentingly avid Twins fan if I couldn’t take the lows of Griffith post free agency, Terry Ryan part 2 and this mediocre Falvey reign so far. Logical, no, An in-love-with-the-Minnesota-Twins-since-very-young ultra fan. Yes.

Sean Johnson would be my #1 pick for most important organization member due to the farm system being a huge bright spot.

My disappointment, is, I’m afraid, born of my high aspirations for the Twins and profound disappointment with the Happ’s, Shoemakers, Mahler, Bundy’s, and our 0 for 30 pinch hitting friend.

 

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

If you think that his most recent season is less predictive of the season to follow than past seasons, you may have a point. I’ve seen many late bloomers over my decades of following baseball.  Nelson Cruz for one.  Many, many others including Mickey Tettleton, etc.

It’s a matter of taste. I am and have been for a couple years a Jurickson Profar fan and you, obviously are not. 

WHat’s your solution? Do you want to go with the same team that was 15 games below .500 for an extended period in crunch time, using 3 rookies in the rotation with horrid offensive struggles MINUS Kepler, Farmer and Thielbar? 

I think the Twins are gonna have to draw an inside straight or close with their young players, Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Rodriguez, Keaschall, Julien, Morris, Festa and Zebby, Keirsey Jr, Martin to be winners in 2025 unless Falvey gets up off his can and makes some real trades to improve the team.

I do like every one of the young guys I named but usually experience counts in MLB and young players struggle. Maybe, Lee, Julien and Lewis have that out of the way.

I, for one, yearn for the outlier Falvey, who only once in his 8 year tenure, went out and kicked ass in the offseason, bringing in almost 100 home runs in C.J. Cron, Schoop and Nelson Cruz. Since, for the last 5 years, the Twins average 81.8 wins per season with the two following the 101 win season being dreadful and last year being a huge disappointment. Now, this historically dreadful offseason so far.

I’m actually an optimist with the Twins, I would have never lasted from 65 to 25 as an unrelentingly avid Twins fan if I couldn’t take the lows of Griffith post free agency, Terry Ryan part 2 and this mediocre Falvey reign so far. Logical, no, An in-love-with-the-Minnesota-Twins-since-very-young ultra fan. Yes.

Sean Johnson would be my #1 pick for most important organization member due to the farm system being a huge bright spot.

My disappointment, is, I’m afraid, born of my high aspirations for the Twins and profound disappointment with the Happ’s, Shoemakers, Mahler, Bundy’s, and our 0 for 30 pinch hitting friend.

 

I'm not going to be a victim of recency bias. The Twins finished with 82 wins despite an epic run of failure at the end of the season. They were one of the best teams in baseball over a far longer stretch. Minus Kepler, Farmer, and Thielbar doesn't bother me. None of those guys were vital parts to the Twins success and all are easily replaced or improved upon.

A number of their young guys will fail. I'm not a Julien believer, and I don't think Lee is a star. Lewis ran out of gas, hopefully his new offseason program helps with that. But they have no choice, the young guys are what supplies every team, especially those in the lower payroll regions, with the chances to win.

I don't know what "outlier Falvey" means in how you're describing things. He hasn't stopped bringing in the Cron, Schoop, and Cruz types. That season just happened to come with a juiced ball that allowed the non-Cruz players to play above their career norms for a season. The reason they've averaged 81.8 wins a season since then is because the rest of the "outlier Falvey" signings have played as expected, not very well. Farmer, Margot, Gallo, Santana, Solano, Vazquez, MAT, Luplow, Garlick, Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela, Andrelton Simmons, Refsnyder, Donaldson. These guys are all in that Cron, Schoop, Cruz type mold of "outlier Falvey." It's why they've been bad. Because relying on outliers to succeed is a bad bet. 

You're disappointed in the Happ, Shoemakers, Mahle, Bundy, and Margot acquisitions, but it's what you're asking for. That's my point. You point to Cron, Schoop, and Cruz like they were somehow different than the collection of players I've named and the 5 you did. The only difference is that 2019 team played above career norms that season. That's not a good team building plan. And Cron, Schoop, and Cruz all had a higher percentage of successful seasons before they came here than Profar has had. 

You can be a Profar fan. Not telling you not to be. But I doubt you were watching him play in Colorado in 2023 and thinking he was the answer to the Twins problems while he hit .236/.316/.364/.680 over 111 games. Maybe you enjoyed his 2022 season where he was a slightly above average hitter. But suggesting he's not a question mark just because you've been a fan of his and the Twins are full of question marks even though they've performed as well or consistently as he has doesn't make sense. Profar has had 1 clearly above average season in 10 seasons. You can suggest that's enough to make you want to take a chance on him, but claiming the Twins problem is that they're full of question marks and then pointing to a guy with a 10% success rate as a clear answer is contradictory. 

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not going to be a victim of recency bias. The Twins finished with 82 wins despite an epic run of failure at the end of the season. They were one of the best teams in baseball over a far longer stretch. Minus Kepler, Farmer, and Thielbar doesn't bother me. None of those guys were vital parts to the Twins success and all are easily replaced or improved upon.

A number of their young guys will fail. I'm not a Julien believer, and I don't think Lee is a star. Lewis ran out of gas, hopefully his new offseason program helps with that. But they have no choice, the young guys are what supplies every team, especially those in the lower payroll regions, with the chances to win.

I don't know what "outlier Falvey" means in how you're describing things. He hasn't stopped bringing in the Cron, Schoop, and Cruz types. That season just happened to come with a juiced ball that allowed the non-Cruz players to play above their career norms for a season. The reason they've averaged 81.8 wins a season since then is because the rest of the "outlier Falvey" signings have played as expected, not very well. Farmer, Margot, Gallo, Santana, Solano, Vazquez, MAT, Luplow, Garlick, Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela, Andrelton Simmons, Refsnyder, Donaldson. These guys are all in that Cron, Schoop, Cruz type mold of "outlier Falvey." It's why they've been bad. Because relying on outliers to succeed is a bad bet. 

You're disappointed in the Happ, Shoemakers, Mahle, Bundy, and Margot acquisitions, but it's what you're asking for. That's my point. You point to Cron, Schoop, and Cruz like they were somehow different than the collection of players I've named and the 5 you did. The only difference is that 2019 team played above career norms that season. That's not a good team building plan. And Cron, Schoop, and Cruz all had a higher percentage of successful seasons before they came here than Profar has had. 

You can be a Profar fan. Not telling you not to be. But I doubt you were watching him play in Colorado in 2023 and thinking he was the answer to the Twins problems while he hit .236/.316/.364/.680 over 111 games. Maybe you enjoyed his 2022 season where he was a slightly above average hitter. But suggesting he's not a question mark just because you've been a fan of his and the Twins are full of question marks even though they've performed as well or consistently as he has doesn't make sense. Profar has had 1 clearly above average season in 10 seasons. You can suggest that's enough to make you want to take a chance on him, but claiming the Twins problem is that they're full of question marks and then pointing to a guy with a 10% success rate as a clear answer is contradictory. 

I think we could talk for 5,000 hours and still be in disagreement. I will say Cron, School and Cruz were all accomplished. Cruz was very good for a long time. Cron whacked 20+ homers the year before and has had some good power years since. Schoop had been good and was good, then fell apart. I don’t agree that Falvey has brought in anywhere near the caliber of that trio since.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I think we could talk for 5,000 hours and still be in disagreement. I will say Cron, School and Cruz were all accomplished. Cruz was very good for a long time. Cron whacked 20+ homers the year before and has had some good power years since. Schoop had been good and was good, then fell apart. I don’t agree that Falvey has brought in anywhere near the caliber of that trio since.

Cruz is an outlier in the names you provided. He's not at all comparable to Cron and Schoop. Here's 6 batters and their stats from the 3 years before the Twins brought them in. See if you can pick out Cruz, Cron, and Schoop vs 3 guys who the Twins brought in after 2019 (I included 2019 if 2020 was one of the 3 years since that year was so short).

And, for comparison sake, Profar's last 3 is 435 G, 1598 PA, 409 H, 48 HR, 189 RBI, 16 SB, .256/.346/.409/.755, 109 OPS+.