This Jhoan Durán Trade Could Jumpstart the Twins' Offseason Activity

[Cody Schoenmann]

Should the Twins send their star closer to Los Angeles for a package of young, controllable talent in areas of need?

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers almost seem to exist on different planes. Offseason after offseason, Los Angeles has pursued and signed the priciest, most sought-after free agents on the market, while Minnesota has been forced to sift through the secondary and tertiary market, investing its limited resources in reclamation projects or slightly-above-replacement-level veterans—especially the last two winters, under their sudden austerity budget.

Coming off the eighth World Series championship in franchise history, the Dodgers have extended or signed the following players:

• Tommy Edman - five years, $74 million
• Blake Snell - five years, $182 million
• Michael Conforto - one year, $17 million
• Blake Treinen - two years, $22 million
• Teoscar Hernández - three years, $66 million

Meanwhile, Minnesota (which has yet to sign a player to a guaranteed MLB contract) has acquired Mickey Gasper, a 29-year-old utility infielder/catcher not guaranteed to make the roster, and due only $800,000 in 2025. Still, despite spending $360.2 million less than the Dodgers so far this offseason, the Twins are in position to contend for the AL Central crown again, meaning not all is bleak.

Given where each team has surplus talent and where they have needs, the Twins would be wise to execute their first significant offseason transaction with the reigning World Series champs. When assessing the Dodgers' 26-man roster, one will notice very few areas of weakness. They have a surplus of star power with position players Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani and starting pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and the aforementioned Snell (and Ohtani, of course).

Los Angeles also has oodles of depth. That said, there is one area that could use more star power, and that is their bullpen. At a glance, their closer and top set-up relievers for next season are projected to be Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and the previously mentioned Treinen. Anthony Banda, Ryan Brasier, and Alex Vesia are expected to function as the team's primary mid-leverage relievers, with young arms Edgardo Henriquez and Michael Grove rounding out the eight-reliever unit.

Now, the Dodger bullpen isn't a weakness, per se. However, it is not formidable, and would significantly benefit from acquiring an established high-leverage arm. Veteran arms like Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, and Kirby Yates are still available on the free-agent market. Signing free agents means paying a tax of roughly $1 on every $1 at this stage, though, and those guys are non-superstars whose salaries would effectively become superstar prices after factoring in the competitive-balance tax. Los Angeles would be best advised to scour the trade market for a high-leverage late-inning arm instead, and the Twins' fire-throwing closer Jhoan Durán could be at the top of their list.

Hindered by a 1.3 MPH decrease in his fastball velocity from 2023 to 2024, Durán struggled to keep hitters from reaching base and to strand inherited runners, which amounted to his worst regular season campaign as a Twin. He posted a career-high 3.64 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 54 1/3 innings pitched. Despite this notable decline in performance, Durán was still an effective reliever last season, and his peripheral numbers (2.85 FIP and 2.70 xERA) indicate he was better than his counting statistics suggest. Nevertheless, there is a significant amount of perceived value surrounding Durán, meaning the Twins could net a prodigious package for him.

The Dodgers organization has troves of major league-ready talent sitting at Triple A, waiting for an opportunity with the parent club. Several names could be bundled into a trade package. However, two Los Angeles prospects make the most sense for the Twins, lending to the hypothetical trade proposal below:

• Los Angeles receives: RHP Jhoan Durán
• Minnesota receives: C Hunter Feduccia, RHP Ben Casparius

Trading Durán would not be an easy departure to stomach for the team or fans. However, parting ways with the hurler and his $1.8 million price tag could be the move that finally signals movement for the largely inactive Twins front office.

Now, it should be noted that moving Durán to Los Angeles wouldn't be a move that clears salary. Feduccia and Caspirius's contracts would equal roughly $1.6 million, making the payroll space saved from Durán's departure functionally nil. Still, acquiring these two cost-controlled players could get the ball moving on further transactions that reduce the team's payroll. Feduccia, 27, is an MLB-caliber catcher who has been blocked by Los Angeles having arguably the best catching tandem in baseball in veterans Will Smith and Austin Barnes. Acquiring Feduccia would give Minnesota a viable catching partner for Ryan Jeffers, meaning the front office could comfortably part ways with Christian Vázquez and his $10 million price tag.

Feduccia is an above-average defensive catcher whose contact-skilled profile from the left side of the plate would perfectly complement Jeffers's defensively deficient, power-skilled profile. Feduccia possesses enough talent to usurp Jeffers in the catching pecking order and function as a long-term option behind the plate, given that he's under team control until at least the end of the 2030 MLB season. Casparius offers similar value to Feduccia, in that he would function as a back-of-the-rotation option who could soften the blow of trading away Chris Paddack and his $7.5 million price tag.

Casparius, 25, fits the mold of the ideal Twins pitching acquisition, utilizing a fastball-sweeper combo 85% of the time. Casparius's sweeper is an elite pitch that could become one of the best in baseball, given extended play at the major-league level. He could compete with Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews for the club's fourth and fifth rotations spots while costing a mere $800,000 next season. Both he and Feduccia can still be optioned to the minors, too. In the long run, though, Casparius might lack the command to start, and he could slide in as more of a direct replacement for Durán over time.

Durán's departure would be a significant blow to the Twins bullpen. That said, the club's relief core is deep, meaning they should be able to absorb the loss. Griffin Jax or Brock Stewart could slot into the closer role, with Jorge Alcalá, Cole Sands, and Justin Topa taking on most of the other medium- to high-leverage situations. Durán's departure could also permit Louie Varland an extended opportunity to become a fixture in the back of the bullpen.

Given their aspirations and a relative lack of needs elsewhere, Los Angeles would be wise to acquire a bona fide high-end closer. Durán fits the bill, and while watching him depart from Twins Territory after three seasons would be a tough pill to swallow, acquiring a cost-controlled platoon catcher and a high-octane swingman with untapped potential would be a worthwhile swap. Also, acquiring Feduccia and Casparius would provide Twins decision-makers the depth pieces necessary to part ways with Vázquez and Paddack comfortably. Trading Vázquez and Paddack would also give the Twins more salary flexibility, allowing them to attack the rest of the roster (albeit in cost-efficient fashion) more aggressively.

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[Mark G]

I like it, but only if we spend the savings on BP help.  Between Jax wanting to be a starter, and the health of some of the other above mentioned BP guys, I would want to add an arm or two to back them up.  Otherwise, we fill a need behind the plate we may not be able to fill from the farm or from free agency for a long time; it may be a good trade, as you say, for both sides.  

[old nurse]

Given their injury history it would seem foolish to count on Topa or Stewart for anything more than that it is a bonus that they are healthy.  I thought the discussion in the recent past was Jax to starter. So if the team trades Duran for a catcher to start it could leave a hole in the bullpen. 

The Dodgers would have to also take a player of excess contract for the Twins for Margot being worse than. Expected. 

[old nurse]

3 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I like it, but only if we spend the savings on BP help.  Between Jax wanting to be a starter, and the health of some of the other above mentioned BP guys, I would want to add an arm or two to back them up.  Otherwise, we fill a need behind the plate we may not be able to fill from the farm or from free agency for a long time; it may be a good trade, as you say, for both sides.  

As we were typing at the same time, should there be a contest to see how many people can state the obvious about the bullpen  

[CRF]

The only thing that's gonna jumpstart this team...is a new ownership group. 

[LambchoP]

I don't hate the idea of trading Duran IF it allows us to fill the clear cut holes on our roster, OR, if we get MLB or near MLB talent back and clear salary. Then use that savings to fill more roster holes. That said, I don't think our pen is as deep as they say. Stewart and Topa will be lucky to pitch much, Varland could be a DFA candidate if he can't figure it out in the pen. If Jax were to get injured we'd be left without any clear cut closing options. I still think we need a late inning lefty too 

[chpettit19]

Absolutely not. I'm not trading Duran for a 27 year old with 14 MLB PAs and a 25 year old who's not better than any of the younger arms they already have stacked up at MLB and AAA. 

"Hey, we have to salary dump these 2 veteran contracts so we'll just trade our closer to fill their spots with a 27 year old catching "prospect" who was never really even a top-30 system guy and a 25 year old pitching prospect who's likely on his way to the pen instead of the rotation where he'd be fighting it out with the younger, better prospects we already have there."

No thanks. I'm open to trading Duran, but it better be for something significantly better than this. I'd guess Duran is viewed as the next step down from 2022 Josh Hader, but the Padres got 1.5 years of control of Hader compared to 3 years of Duran control a team would be getting in a trade right now. The Brewers got an active MLB closer in Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, a top-10 system prospect in Robert Gasser, and a top-30 system guy in Esteury Ruiz (became the #9 prospect for the Brewers on MLB at the time of the trade) for 1.5 years of Hader but the Twins should trade 3 years of Duran for a non-prospect catcher and a borderline top-30 pitcher? No freaking way.

[Finlander]

Reading the line "..parting ways with the hurler and his $1.8 million dollar price tag..." transported me back to about 1979. How depressing! It doesn't seem that long ago that we signed FA Correa, extended Buxton, and traded for and extended would-be ace Lopez. And now we're sweating bullets about $1.8M. Calvin is laughing.

[Russ]

Need more from the Dodgers.

This is another Twins trade, sending 26 man roster players for prospects that don't jump off the page.  Need more.

 

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Absolutely not. I'm not trading Duran for a 27 year old with 14 MLB PAs and a 25 year old who's not better than any of the younger arms they already have stacked up at MLB and AAA. 

"Hey, we have to salary dump these 2 veteran contracts so we'll just trade our closer to fill their spots with a 27 year old catching "prospect" who was never really even a top-30 system guy and a 25 year old pitching prospect who's likely on his way to the pen instead of the rotation where he'd be fighting it out with the younger, better prospects we already have there."

No thanks. I'm open to trading Duran, but it better be for something significantly better than this. I'd guess Duran is viewed as the next step down from 2022 Josh Hader, but the Padres got 1.5 years of control of Hader compared to 3 years of Duran control a team would be getting in a trade right now. The Brewers got an active MLB closer in Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, a top-10 system prospect in Robert Gasser, and a top-30 system guy in Esteury Ruiz (became the #9 prospect for the Brewers on MLB at the time of the trade) for 1.5 years of Hader but the Twins should trade 3 years of Duran for a non-prospect catcher and a borderline top-30 pitcher? No freaking way.

Agreed.

Gotta get a “real” player for a guy as valuable as Duran! I have no problem trading him while his value is still very good/excellent and moving Jax to Closer. The “needs”, to me are offensive!! 1B & Catcher are positions without organizational depth and of immediate need at the MLB level.

Don’t need a prospect arm…….,Morris - Matthews - Lewis - Raya are those prospect arms.

Couple another guy (Matthews), with Duran, & get a real 1B or Catcher…….not a couple “controllable…….Top 10 organization prospects”……need an immediate above average contributor. It’s a high bar! A young starter and a Top 10 reliever in the game (arguably) is worth “real player” back. IF it’s a Top 5 organization option at Catcher (for only Duran), then you keep both Jeffers & Vazquez to start the year and possibly look to move 1 guy at the deadline.

Duran’s salary is projected at $3.7M - not $1.8M suggested above, so there is minor $$ help in moving him as well ……..not the driver for the move since he is of great value!

Bottom line is that I think Duran is a big chip! Also, Jax is an employee. He wants an opportunity to make more money. If he’s a Closer and he performs there’s as good a chance he makes as much in that role as he could as an average starter. Comments about him wanting to be a starter aren’t going to drive how the Team behaves. ……….I equate this to the 28 year old that has had some success in business and “wants” to be Vice President……..not happening.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

9 minutes ago, Finlander said:

Reading the line "..parting ways with the hurler and his $1.8 million dollar price tag..." transported me back to about 1979. How depressing! It doesn't seem that long ago that we signed FA Correa, extended Buxton, and traded for and extended would-be ace Lopez. And now we're sweating bullets about $1.8M. Calvin is laughing.

Actually in 1979, a $1.8M salary would have been a huge deal, not something minor.  Our top salary that year was indeed a closer, Mike Marshall, who made $300K.  The minimum salary was $21K. back then so the investment was substantially smaller.  In fact, the first million dollar player, Nolan Ryan, came in 1980. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Not enthralled with the return.  A pitcher and a catcher would be fine, but I'd like them to be better than these two guys.  Just because they are coming from the "World Champion" Dodgers doesn't make prospects better than if they come from anywhere else, but sometimes we are just as guilty of big market bias as the media is. 

[Brandon27]

I would rather keep Duran we haven't had good closer in a long time and I think getting rid of paddock and Vazquez would be better 

[LewFordLives]

The price of pitching keeps going up, and so now there's all these articles about how the Twins should trade their reasonably priced/controllable pitchers (Lopez and Duran) to maximize their value.  But how would the Twins replace them? They can't! These discussions make no sense to me. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I concur with chepettit. I'm open to trading Duran, but not if the return is a long the lines of this proposal.

[beckmt]

For me it depends on how good the catcher is.  If he is good enough to make the roster and move Vasquez elsewhere, it has it chances, and you can never have enough pitching.  I am a big bullpen guy, but some of the Twins minor league starters will have to end up in the pen or gone.  It seems better than many of the Pablo trades I have seen where you are getting prospects in the 4 - 10 range from lower or much lower ranked farm systems. On the fence about this one, but if it will move Vasquez and his 10 million and Paddock and his 7.5 off the roster, it has some merit. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Alex Freeland, Diego Cartaya and another player I'd be willing to consider. Cartaya's star may have burned up never to shine again,so maybe not. But if the other pieces are tantalizing I'd consider it. Duran has great value.

[Fatbat]

Dobnak is making Duran type $$$ isn't he? We got other things to mess around with before we destroy our bullpen. 

[saviking]

I'm not sure the back of the rotation started is high on my list of Twins needs, but I like the catcher. Who else could they throw in that, either player's outfield or first base.

[Elliot]

Echoing a number of the above. Not opposed to moving Duran to improve the team but this doesn’t seem like enough. They seem interchangeable with the AAA options the Twins have to fill those spots. 

[miller761]

Cleveland 2024. That is what an outstanding bullpen gets you. I would like some of that. Keep the bullpen intact and take a chance on the young players we have developed. 

[Otaknam]

This isn’t enough for Duran and it weakens the team without adding well regarded prospects. Casparius is a back of the rotation starter, which the Twins have a half dozen of already, and a 27 year old catcher who isn’t an upgrade or does not have  projected upside. I would support a trade if it included two Dodgers prospects like  Justin Wrobleski, a lefty starter with mid rotation ability, and their top prosects,  catcher Dalton Rushing, who is blocked by other players. Otherwise keep Duran.

[jorgenswest]

I wouldn’t think a catcher entering his age 28 season or a pitcher entering his age 26 are young.

Should we be concerned that Fedducia allowed 102 stolen bases in just 70 AAA starts at catcher throwing out 20%? That is both a high volume and a low rate. The 20% is an improvement after three years in AAA where it was it was 10% and 15% the previous two years. It makes me wonder if the 28 year old has peaked. Should we be concerned that much of his value as a batter is his walk rate? With little power those walks don’t often translate well to the majors. The walk rate is also something that has improved at AAA (10%, 15%, 17%). 

Casparius will be 26 and is still struggling with walks. His numbers have been amazingly consistent at each stop with walk rates of 11-12%. He throws 95 so he really needs better control. We saw what a happened to Thielbar when his walk rate moved from the 5-7% range from 21-23 to 11% in 2024. He did open game 4 of the World Series so there was some trust there.

I think at least one of these two will be DFA’d this year or traded for a minor prospect in order to clear 40 man space. The Twins helped the Dodgers taking Margot to free up a space for Hernandez. They could have waited until Margot was released. I wouldn’t help the Dodgers with these two players likely on the fringe of their 40 man roster. Casparias would be more interesting if the Dodgers don’t have a bullpen spot for him and need to make space on the 40 so if he were the second player in the deal paired with a top prospect it could work.

They need to trade Duran for established major league ready help or trade him for prospects that are truly young and have time to grow,

 

[Otaknam]

12 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Dobnak is making Duran type $$$ isn't he? We got other things to mess around with before we destroy our bullpen. 

Dobnak hasn’t done anything in the past couple of years to think he can contribute. His $9 million contract was always a head scratcher. He would have been released already if not for his contract.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I’d be open to these pieces if they truly would upgrade catcher and somewhere in our pitching rotation. I think I would actually pull the trigger IF there was a true prospect added to this. Like these two with Jackson Ferris, or even Andy Pages, then you have my attention

[strumdatjag]

Durán appears to be slipping to me, albeit slipping from a very high level.  This would seem to be a classic “sell-high” opportunity if another team is willing to give a little bit more than you described.  

[Mahoning]

One thing for sure: If they made that deal, Casparius would immediately require arm surgery.

[USAFChief]

Wow, this is an absolutely terrible proposal. 

Duran for 2 non prospects. 

 

Wow.

 

[mnfireman]

New Year, same let's suggest a ridiculous trade/signing article. Only this one sounds like it is coming from Dodgers Daily...

[JD-TWINS]

41 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

They better confirm with Jax that he is OK with a closer role and associated $ as if this trade were to occur and Mr. Jax is still intent on starting, then we'd be in a real bind with one unhappy player.

I don’t get the “worry” with Jax? He’s a human being with emotions, yes, but he’s also a former Air Force officer. He’s of high character and used to taking orders. He is an employee. The concern about him “being unhappy” to be in the Closer role seems to be way over the top to me.

Jax - Funderburk - Topa - Blewett - Henriquez - Alcala - Stewart - Headrick - Varland - Paddack - Castellano - Tonkin……….try to sign Coloumbe for $4-$5.5M or like guy. Keep Paddack for 85-100 Pen innings and a handful of spot starts. Canterino or Prielipp or Raya to supplement Pen if needed by August is more of a blue sky thought but one of them may be able to contribute.

To me, Duran is a real chip that can bring back offensive help. Gotta fill void at 1B and Catcher. There are other approaches but Team won’t get anywhere if they don’t trade value for value.