Make It Official! Twins 8, Marlins 3: Not Dead Yet

[Steven Trefz]

The Minnesota Twins began their Wednesday night game against the Miami Marlins in desperate need of a victory and a change in momentum, if they were to have any chance of continuing their playoff push. After a horrific start, the Twins re-wrote the narrative of the past month and accelerated to victory, keeping pace for at least one more night. Here is how the comeback win transpired.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Simeon Woods Richardson - 1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 2 K ( 36 pitches, 23 strikes (64% Strikes)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (18), 
Top 3 WPA: Trevor Larnach .238, Carlos Correa .151, Christian Vazquez .144 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Desperation Mode Turns Desperate Early
The Twins entered Wednesday night's matchup versus the Miami Marlins with no margin for error. After dropping the opening game of the series to the 99 loss Miami squad, the Twins dropped to two games behind both Detroit and Kansas City for the final Wild Card slot. Any realistic chance at reclaiming the spot that was mostly theirs throughout the season required a win on Wednesday, and the man on the hill to do his part was Simeon Woods Richardson. Before the game, Simeon discussed the importance of throwing strikes, and getting his team off the field. What followed was another example of the absolute collapse that has made the Twins fanbase turn desperate.

On a 2-1 count, lead-off man Xavier Edwards laced a single to right. Woods Richardson followed that with a four pitch walk to Connor Norby. Struggling slugger Jake Burger came up next, and then the ball went up...and out. 3-0 Marlins and still nobody out. Jesus Sanchez ripped another single, and Jonah Bride did him one better with a double to the gap in left center. Luckily Byron Buxton was able to cut off the ball before Sanchez could head for home, but the Marlins still had runners at second and third with no one out, and most watching the game doubted that Buxton's effort would matter. Cue the bullpen, as Louie Varland started to listen far earlier than anyone hoped for.

With a velocity hovering around 93 mph all season, Woods Richardson hovered around 90 mph in the first inning. His offspeed work mixed in well over the next two batters, however, and two Marlins strike outs led to a chance to escape the jam. In a desperate situation, it was the Twins' righty who rose to the occasion to induce a flyout to leave the runners in place. 3-0 is bad, but it could have been a whole lot worse.

Can the Twins Score?
Edward Cabrera brought a "live" arm and a 5.12 ERA into tonights game. The Twins countered with Edouard Julien in the top spot, with Carlos Correa and Trevor Larnach to follow. 10 pitches later, the Marlins were back in the dugout after two strike outs and a weak ground ball to first base. And that, my friends, is how a team gets a 78% expected win probability in only the first inning. 

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Bullpen Game Begins in the Second
Woods Richardson's velocity and location woes continued in the top of the second, surrendering a chopper up the middle to Jhonny Pereda that Brooks Lee couldn't make the throw to get the out at first. Edwards laced the first pitch to the outfield to once again put runners on second and first with nobody out. This was all that Rocco Baldelli could handle, and Varland came into the game to do what his Twins bullpen mates have struggled to do all summer: strand inherited runners.

Varland and his 98 mph velocity was up to the challenge though, and he struck out the next three batters to give the Twins offense another chance to creep back into this game early.  Cabrera took out Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Santana in 17 pitches this time around, and the expected Marlin win percentage ticked up to 80%. 

Varland kept dealing through traffic, and escaped the top of the third without surrendering more runs. Willi Castro, the last person to hit a home run in the September dinger drought, led off the bottom of the frame with a blast to the wall in deep left-center that bounced off a Marlin for a leadoff double. Lee was unable to advance Castro, and Christian Vazquez followed with an "oh no" dribbler to the pitcher which caught Castro off base. However, perhaps in the season-saving break that the club has been so desperate to find in the past month,  Cabrera went to throw to his short stop and found Castro's inner thigh instead. (Seriously, you can't make this stuff up!) First and second, with nobody out. Julien advanced Castro on a fielder's choice, and suddenly Correa was up as the tying run with two outs. Correa took a close pitch for a full-count walk, and Larnach didn't waste any time cutting that predicted win percentage back down to size, and score into a one-run game.

No Margin for Error
With the Tigers and Royals solidly on their way towards wins on Wednesday night, the Twins had to find a way to keep the Marlins off the board, and to follow up with consistent at-bats of their own. Jorge Alcala returned to the team in the Matt Wallner injury shuffle, and he cleaned up Varland's inherited runner in the top of the fourth. In the bottom of the fourth, Buxton decided a ride on the Buck Truck was far past due.

Where do we Go from Here?
With the game knotted at 3-3, the advantage switched to the home team at 55%, but could the bullpen continue to hold serve against a Marlins squad with nothing to lose other than potentially their 100th game? Through the fifth and sixth innings, the answer was a resounding "Yes!" Could the Twins bats do some damage against the Marlins bullpen. The answer was "sort of." The Marlins bungled themselves into a bases loaded situation with only one out in the bottom of the fifth, with two errors and a Larnach rope single that was hit to hard to score Austin Martin from second. Lewis came up to bat, and delivered what Correa thought was a two-run line drive single to left. Unfortunately for the Twins, and for Correa who was caught running full speed off of second base in an attempt to score, the ball was caught and Correa was doubled-off to prevent Austin's tag-up for the go-ahead run to count. In the bottom of the sixth inning, Buxton ripped a single, only to be doubled-off on a 108 mph line out by Santana to the second baseman.

The Twins bullpen kept on rolling with light traffic, and the Twins kept invited the Marlins to play defense. Lee started the bottom of the seventh with a blast to deep right field that Jesus Sanchez couldn't come up with for a double. Vazquez tried valiantly to bunt, for a while, and eventually succeeded. Reliever Declan Cronin picked up the ball, and provided the Twins the 4th Marlin error of the game by chucking the ball towards the stands instead of the first baseman. Manuel Margot (pinch running for Lee) scored easily, and the Twins were finally in the lead against the Marlins at 4-3. Martin got caught looking, for good reason, at what should have been ball one after failing to lay down a bunt himself.

This brought up the other All-Star, and Correa reminded Twins Territory what they've been missing! A curving double to the right field corner plated Vazquez, and suddenly it was 5-3. Add an intentional walk, and a normal walk, and Cronin found himself with the bases loaded, one out, and the Buck Truck at the plate. The Buck Truck stalled out, and it looked like another threat to put away a game would end on the bat of veteran slugger Santana. What happened next gives Twins fans hope for one...more...day.

With the score now 8-3 Twins, and the squad reaching a 98.5% win probability, the Twins kept the urgency up and sent in the defensive replacements took the field. Griffin Jax even stayed in for his second inning of work and after he successfully retired the first batter, Jhoan Duran got the call to finish the eighth. Justin Topa made his Twins 2024 debut in the ninth, and he had no trouble ending the night 1-2-3 to close out the Twins' first major win of this desperation week.

What’s Next? 
The Twins once again look to gain some ground in the playoff race with a win and some help from the Rays and the Nationals. The Twins send out rookie (and potential Game 1 starter if they do somehow miraculously make the playoffs) RHP David Festa (2-6, 4.80 ERA). Meanwhile the Marlins send out fellow rookie RHP Valente Bellozo (3-4, 3.82 ERA) in hopes of playing spoiler. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm CT.

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Sheet

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Tonkin	0	37	0	25	0	62
Varland	0	0	0	0	48	48
Sands	0	20	0	0	16	36
Blewett	0	7	0	20	0	27
Alcala	0	0	0	0	20	20
Thielbar	0	17	0	3	0	20
Jax	0	0	0	0	20	20
Durán	0	0	0	0	14	14
Topa	0	0	0	0	8	8

 

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[ashbury]

A nice way for Rocco to celebrate his 43rd birthday.

[Parfigliano]

A winning season

[Karbo]

I'm afraid it's too little, too late.

[NYCTK]

I want to say again, because we all rightfully criticized Rocco for poor bullpen usage last week, he actually utilized it tonight in a way that showed some level of urgency. 

No Margot leadoff or PH though. 2/10 /s

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

I want to say again, because we all rightfully criticized Rocco for poor bullpen usage last week, he actually utilized it tonight in a way that showed some level of urgency. 

No Margot leadoff or PH though. 2/10 /s

It looks like Rocco was in a no-win situation in the 1st and 2nd innings. He made the call to remove the starter, and it paid off. 

Never mind that really Miami threw the game away on all those errors.. it's a lonely walk out there to remove your starting pitcher that early in the game, when you want to save your few good arms.

[Peter]

Huge win!!!

[Schmoeman5]

Has Rocco called for a bunt one time in the 10th inning of a tie game with a runner on 2nd base no outs like he did with Vasquez in the 7th inning tonight? I don't recall once. Especially if you're the home team playing for a run. I don't get it. Now in the 158th game. Wow. Yeah they broke it open. But he was playing for a run.

[bean5302]

SWR would be the scheduled Game 1 starter on Oct 1 right now. Festa on short rest? I don't see the Twins doing that, but who knows?

Nice to see a win, but I think the season is done. KC, Seattle and Detroit all won tonight.

[Jocko87]

[Yawn Gardenhose]

Big win. I think the Twins unlocked the secret to activating this offense: get four or five outs in an inning instead of the standard three.  

[TheLeviathan]

Rocco'd again.  If only he had told the team earlier that an entire month OPSing .620 was a good way to lose....they may have scored more to help their rookie laden rotation!

Idiot.  He should pinch hit himself with the lefty Rocco that follows the exact same organizational beliefs and would do everything the same.

[Schmoeman5]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

Rocco'd again.  If only he had told the team earlier that an entire month OPSing .620 was a good way to lose....they may have scored more to help their rookie laden rotation!

Idiot.  He should pinch hit himself with the lefty Rocco that follows the exact same organizational beliefs and would do everything the same.

Twins RH pinch hitters vs LH pitchers are hitting .147 on the season. Twins LH hitters vs LH pitchers are hitting .225. That's not really good at all. Yet it's nearly 80 points higher than the pinch hitters. And why does Rocco wait till the seasons nearly over to attempt to move a runner over to 3rd via a bunt with no one out? I loved that call. Yet it took till the 158th game for him to figure it out! 🤔 

[1985Fan]

They’re lucky that Miami had four errors to allow the offense to get rolling. Hopefully, this is what gets their confidence back to score some runs in the next four games. 
Hope the BP is ready for tomorrow’s game. Festa needs to get into the 5th inning or the BP is going to have to rely on Tonkin, Blewett, and Thielbar. All hands on deck. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

26 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Rocco'd again. 

 

 

[mikelink45]

I'm not holding my breath for the playoffs. Just enjoying each game. And this was a game in which the Marlins demonstrated. What a really bad team can be. It was a good lesson and the fact that Fielding is the third component in a good team. Beyond batting and pitching.  

[Karbo]

7 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Has Rocco called for a bunt one time in the 10th inning of a tie game with a runner on 2nd base no outs like he did with Vasquez in the 7th inning tonight? I don't recall once. Especially if you're the home team playing for a run. I don't get it. Now in the 158th game. Wow. Yeah they broke it open. But he was playing for a run.

Vasky said it wasn't called, he did it on his own

[CRF]

Just prolonging the inevitable. 

[Patzky]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

SWR would be the scheduled Game 1 starter on Oct 1 right now. Festa on short rest? I don't see the Twins doing that, but who knows?

Nice to see a win, but I think the season is done. KC, Seattle and Detroit all won tonight.

Paddack? Would be less risky than Sim at this point in my opinion.

[TwinsDr2021]

Big win, must win, not sure they can afford to lose again. It doesn't help the yanks can't put away Baltimore.

The Twins have benefited greatly from horrible outfield defense this year (at trait good teams do) Lee's double to right could have (should have) have been caught but it wasn't and the Twins took advantage. It felt like after that play and the bunt the Twins dugout went from looking sad and desperate to exited, hopefully those breaks propel the offense going forward.

[thelanges5]

Twins need to keep winning and we need help from the Braves. BIG 4 games coming up. Will we rise to the occasion!

Go Braves!

[Whitey333]

Look, I'm glad they won.  It was needed.  I'm not overly excited.  They beat a very bad team one day after not even showing up to play.  Probably would have lost if playing a good team.  Our great leaders, Correa and Buxton got some hits and RBIs after each getting doubled off in base running gaffes.   Twins have everything near perfect set up for them.  Playing the 100 loss Marlins, then hosting the Orioles who have now stated they won't be starting their best two pitchers and will rest some of their starters.  It's soʻ sad that they put themselves in this situation.  If they somehow sneak into the playoffs I don't see how they can have any quality starting pitchers available for the playoffs.  They don't belong in the playoffs.  They don't deserve it.

[Craig Arko]

5 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Twins need to keep winning and we need help from the Braves. BIG 4 games coming up. Will we rise to the occasion!

Go Braves!

Given the fallout from Helene, it won’t surprise me if that series is relocated to KC.

[jmlease1]

If the other team commits 4 errors and you don't win...man. Twins sure tried to kick it back with all the baserunning issues. 

SWR may be gassed. This is far and away the most innings he's thrown as a professional, and he's done that at the highest level of competition. He's not ending the season on a strong note, but he's still been a godsend this season and I hope a bad finish won't sour too many fans on him. He's just turning 24 (Happy birthday SWR on Friday!) and has shown he belongs.

About time the offense puts 8 on the board, though. There's too much offensive talent for them to have been as bad as they've been in Sept. The bullpen gets most of the stick because of the high-profile implosions, but the offense put them in too many situations where they had to be perfect night after night.

Be nice for them to finish the season strong.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

getting doubled off

That was very uncharacteristic of Correa to just lope back to second without an effort, and then to top it off, run through the bag and be an easy target to be tagged out, if not forced out.

I guess we can conclude that his foot/ankle is bothering him and makes him tentative on pivots and slides. Also just slower than his usual slowness. No where near 100%

[D.C Twins]

THIS was the type of bullpen urgency needed in the second game of the double header on Sunday when the Twins still had a chance!

But no.... Irvin... the castoff that lasted a couple weeks was given the high leverage opportunity at the pivotal point in the season. (all while Alaca down in AAA) 

On a separate note. Julian leading off....REALLY.... Good Lord Rocco... make it stop

[SpicyGarvSauce]

10 hours ago, Peter said:

Huge win!!!

Someone tell Peter.

It's over.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

SWR would be the scheduled Game 1 starter on Oct 1 right now. Festa on short rest? I don't see the Twins doing that, but who knows?

Nice to see a win, but I think the season is done. KC, Seattle and Detroit all won tonight.

Tuesday would be SWR’s turn…….I assume it would be more of an opener situation but he might not “open”. Festa would be on full rest (4 days off) by Tuesday. Probably some combination either way.

Bad news is they have about a 15-20% chance to get in at this point. Detroit is a juggernaut & facing White Sox this weekend - they’re in! Mariners aren’t a concern as they need to pass us due to tie breaker. Royals need to lose & 2 or 3 losses are necessary……..possible since Braves will definitely be playing for something this weekend hosting Royals. Can Twins win 4? Can they win 3 just to have an opportunity?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

Given the fallout from Helene, it won’t surprise me if that series is relocated to KC.

THAT would raise some eyebrows. Braves fans/organization - Twins fans/organization - VEGAS for season long wagers - etc.

[LambchoP]

If only Rocco had started managing like this a month ago. Nice to see a win, but it did take like 4 errors, against one of the worst teams in the game. I'm afraid it's too little too late. Our late season collapse has left us needing to win today then sweep the Orioles on the road, while KC or DET loses. Pretty grim reality. Hopefully someone is held accountable in the off-season. But, I doubt it:)