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Yawn Gardenhose

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Everything posted by Yawn Gardenhose

  1. Yawn Gardenhose
    Hasn't a version of this article been written prior to the last 3 seasons or so? Smacks of familiarity
  2. Yawn Gardenhose
    I had exactly the same thought. I had to go back to his comments yesterday..."We are not eliminated right now, at this point And I don't have the mindset that we are out of this. I don't care who's available in the pen tomorrow...my intention is to win out and see what happens." (emphasis mine) Fast forward to down 3-0 in the eighth, in a must-win game, and bringing in...Kody Funderburk, lefty specialist, and he's allowed to just eat it, all of it. A situational AAA reliever literally called up today throws *41* pitches while Jax and Duran, your only good relievers, get that all-important rest. I realize that they both pitched yesterday, but it seemed like Baldelli was indicating that his standard bullpen management was out the window in such a dire situation. Nope, managed exactly the same as if this was a game in mid-May. Color me not shocked at all. I certainly don't put *all* the blame on Baldelli, but it's this kind of s*it - and how predictable it has become - that should render him unemployed next week. Though considering the clowns that employ him, I do doubt that he will be fired.
  3. Yawn Gardenhose
    If Detroit wins Thursday afternoon, that guarantees that Baltimore will have something to play for on Friday, regardless of their game with the Yankees on Thursday night. If they beat the Yankees, that means that the Orioles could still win the AL East. If they lose, then they still would need to win at least one game against the Twins to clinch the first wild card, which they would be sure to be motivated to do so considering Detroit plays the White Sox to end the regular season. Even if there's nothing to gain for Baltimore from a standings perspective, I can't believe they'd rest *all* their regulars. They've been scuffling for a while and would like to go into the postseason on something of a high note. They might be starting that kind of momentum with a pair of wins at Yankee Stadium. Sure, I'd expect they don't have Ruschmann catch for maybe the whole series, but I bet we see most of their regular lineup for the first two games at the very least.
  4. Yawn Gardenhose
    Big win. I think the Twins unlocked the secret to activating this offense: get four or five outs in an inning instead of the standard three.
  5. Yawn Gardenhose
    This is flatly wrong. The #1 seed automatically plays the winner of the #4/#5 wild card series. The #2 seed automatically plays the winner of the #3/#6 wild card series. There is no re-seeding after the wild card round, just one of several flagrant flaws in the current postseason format.
  6. Yawn Gardenhose
    Hayes has assumed the role of blocking tackle for the front office with an enthusiasm that is off-putting to say the least. Seems like that spirit has rubbed off on articles like this too. The narrative definitely jibes if you want to make the front office appear to not be utterly incompetent for the umpteenth straight trade deadline. The Wonder Boys just ain't good at this trade deadline thing, no matter how much regime-defending gloss you wish to smother on it.
  7. Yawn Gardenhose
    Counterpoint: The 2018 Guardians made history by having 4 starters with 200+ strikeouts. Only team to have ever done that. They didn't win a game in the playoffs and pitched to a 7.20 ERA in those three playoff games.
  8. Yawn Gardenhose
    Cincinnati is "out of contention"??? They're a half game behind the current 6th seed and 1 game behind the free falling Cubs for the 5th seed. They are literally in the thick of the wild card race and have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way. Very possible that they're in the playoffs when the dust settles.
  9. Yawn Gardenhose
    Wow what a ridiculous article. This year's Twins team is the definition of "cute." They're below .500 versus teams with a winning record. Below .500 in 9-inning games (i.e. games not decided by stupid Manfred extra inning gift runners). Below .500 on the road. On pace to shatter the strikeout record by an offense. Have a bullpen of which Emilio Pagan has been one of the most reliable members. They have the ninth-best record in the AL and are in line for the 3 seed and a home playoff series. If that's not indicative of "playing above their talent level" I don't know what is. If they didn't have the dumb luck of playing in what's literally the worst division in MLB history they'd be dead and buried and probably would have been dumping guys on the waiver wire today like the Angels just did. So cute are they that their "success" this year might force MLB to tweak postseason rules to prevent such a situation where the team with the worst record in the playoff field somehow gets to host a 3-game playoff series. Cute as a button, really.
  10. Yawn Gardenhose
    Twins should send a gift basket to Nick Maton and one to Tigers management for not only playing this guy, but hitting him *fifth* in all seven games against the Twins. Might be the single worst player I've seen in MLB, and he singlehandedly gave the Twins the game today with his horrendous defense. That the Tigers won 4 out of the 7 games so far is truly astounding based on the kind of talent they are trotting out there day in and day out. This is to say, things aren't great for the Twins, but at least they ain't the Tigers. Woof.
  11. Yawn Gardenhose
    I went through the whole season. The only loss where the Twins had over a 90% win probability was the Sunday loss at Toronto (thanks Pagan). They've had three losses where they've had at least an 85% win probability: 4/21 vs Washington 3-2 loss (had 87% win probability) 5/23 vs San Francisco 4-3 loss (89% win probability) 6/3 vs Cleveland 4-2 loss (85% win probability) In addition to the five recent wins where their opponent has had 92%+ win probability (5/29 at Houston, 6/1 vs Cleveland, 6/9 at Toronto, 6/10 at Toronto and 6/13 vs Milwaukee), there's only been one other Twins win wherein the opponent had <85% win probability: 4/14 at New York. There's been a few examples of wins and losses at the 80-84% win probability level, which basically cancel each other out. These are the most extreme examples.
  12. Yawn Gardenhose
    Tonight was the 5th time *in the last 14 games* that the Twins won a game in which their opponent had a 92% or higher win probability during the game. That's incredible - the difference between an angsty 34-33 and a five-alarm-fire 29-38. I'd like to think winning this way isn't sustainable, but buried in the (justified) anxiety during this current 14 game stretch is the fact that the Twins are pulling wins out of their opponents' butts and saving their season doing so.
  13. Yawn Gardenhose
    Nice win. A few stray thoughts: In this three game series, the two teams combined to go 6 for 50 with runners in scoring position (a .120 average), including 1 for 9 with a runner on third base and less than two outs. They struck out a combined 74 times in the series, accounting for 46.5% of the outs. The defenses combined for 8 errors as well as a passed ball that directly accounted for a run today. 11 of the 17 earned runs in the series scored via home run. In a series that pitted two of MLB's supposed "new school" darlings, the results were overwhelmingly difficult to watch as a product. Add in the too-cute opener strategy by the Giants on Monday and Baldelli's manic reaction to that strategy. Overall this series serves as a good case study as to why the game will struggle to remain relevant as an entertainment option in the future with this brand of baseball.
  14. Yawn Gardenhose
    I'm not a doctor, but isn't one's heel close to one's ankle?
  15. Yawn Gardenhose
    He's a glorified Rob Deer as a full time DH. And hey, Rob Deer had value back in his day. But it's not like anyone built a franchise around Rob Deer. When the golf swing is clicking, Buxton can get results. It's just a matter of how often the golf swing is clicking. The Correa thing is laughable and is an indictment of the front office. They would be embarrassed, if they had any shame to begin with.
  16. Yawn Gardenhose
    If Correa was playing like this wearing a Mets uniform, no amount of clever broadcast producing would be able to drown out the torrent of boos. Would be getting absolutely roasted by the New York media jackals too. And deservedly so.
  17. Yawn Gardenhose
    This "Bundy and Archer wrecked the 2022 rotation" narrative has been an interesting development to watch since the end of last season. Bundy was the only pitcher the Twins allowed to face a lineup three full times through the order (i.e. 27 or more batters). He did this twice last season, in fact. So he gave the team the two lengthiest starts in terms of batters faced last year. Archer had seven starts last year where he went 4 innings and had given up two or less hits. In six of those seven starts he gave up one or zero runs, and the other he allowed 2 runs. One of those starts he walked 6 and threw 90 pitches (his season high), but in the others he didn't top 80 pitches in any of those outings. One start he threw 63 pitches, another 62. He never faced more than 20 batters in a start and in four of these seven stellar starts he wasn't even allowed to face the lineup two full times through. Archer wasn't the most aesthetically pleasing pitcher to watch, but it's clear they didn't trust him at all, even when he was performing well. Seems like their philosophy of being deathly afraid of having a pitcher face a lineup a third time definitely ruled the day when it came to intentionally limiting his innings pitched. Not saying these guys were great or even good, but 1) they weren't awful and 2) the Twins absolutely used quick, needless hooks, particularly with Archer. What wrecked them from a pitching standpoint was a systematic approach of refusing to let starters face a lineup three times through which forced them into over-relying on a bad bullpen. Bundy and Archer were just two cogs in that system. I expect the starters to go a *little* deeper because I think they realized their foolishness in being so slavish to the math last year. I hope at least. But I don't expect six inning starts to be the norm for anyone. I think Maeda's closer to being toast than being a workhorse. For all the hype that Ober gets, he's never been allowed to crack 80 pitches a start at any level in this organization. I'll take the under on Lopez hitting 180 innings again. I'd actually bet the under on anyone on the staff qualifying for the ERA title (meaning 162 innings). But hey, I'd love to be wrong.
  18. Yawn Gardenhose
    Lotta blue in that Baseball Savant graphic. Wouldn't have thought that.
  19. Yawn Gardenhose
    Another factor for "expected" payroll should be the wealth of the owner. According to this list, the Pohlads are tied for 8th among MLB ownership wealth. I think that's at least as important as market size when discussing payroll expectations. If Jeff Bezos for some dumb reason decided to buy the Twins, would you be just fine with them having a "league-average" payroll?
  20. Yawn Gardenhose
    On July 5th, the Twins were 10 games over .500 and had a 4.5 game lead on the division. At that time, 11 of these 16 injured players were on the injured list then and most had been shelved for the majority of the season at that point - only Larnach's injury occurred recently to that July 5th date. And of the players whose injuries occurred after 7/5, one was Mahle who was still a Cincinnati Red at this time. Injuries have hit them hard, but I think it's mostly quantity than quality. The most impactful injuries are the latest two - Buxton and Polanco. You could argue that some of the injuries have benefited the Twins too. If Sano doesn't get hurt, Arraez might not have taken off to the extent he did, and it's possible that Miranda doesn't get as long of a look without the opportunity that was created for him. And it's hard for me to put too much stock into Lewis's injury from a "how it affected the 2022 Minnesota Twins" standpoint, as he wasn't expected to be a major contributor to the big-league club this year anyway, particularly after they signed Correa (his injury is much more concerning from a development/big-picture organizational standpoint). The injuries in total are definitely a factor in the collapse, but more importantly I think they've helped to expose some glaring flaws with this organization's philosophy and approach on several fronts. Acknowledging and correcting those flaws will make this season not totally for naught as good organizations adapt and learn from mistakes. Unfortunately I don't think this organization is in the hands of people that are terribly good at identifying their mistakes much less righting them. I hope I'm wrong.
  21. Yawn Gardenhose
    The title of the article is blatantly wrong. I realize what you're implying - that short starts are a league-wide trend - but the plain fact is, short starts are very much a Minnesota Twins thing. Again with the flawed interpretation of the third-time-through stats...sigh. Let me try this again. Let's use Archer for example. This season he's faced 15 batters three times in a game. Read that closely - that's not "15 starts he's gone through the order three times." In total in 2022, he's had *15 plate appearances* against a batter who's facing him for the third time. This is such a comically small sample size that it's fundamentally insignificant from a data standpoint. Furthermore, each of these 15 plate appearances were against the #1 or #2 hitters in an opponents' lineup - typically where teams' best players hit. So again, you're comparing data sets of once through an order and twice through an order - based on facing 9 batters in those samples - against a data set where a pitcher is facing 2 out of the 9 hitters, and 2 of the *best* hitters to boot. Of course the numbers are going to look lopsided when you're comparing two entirely different data sets and assuming a meaningful equivalence between them. I consider this to be a rudimentary error of data analysis. And yet here we are, watching the Twins completely throw away a chance to win perhaps the worst division in the wild-card era largely because of this demonstrably flawed philosophy. "Total system failure," I'd say.
  22. Yawn Gardenhose
    This isn't even half true. The 09 team started September 3.5 games out of first. The 2010 team was leading the division by 4 games on September 1.
  23. Yawn Gardenhose
    You lost me, Alex. Lately pitchers have been cruising and haven't been allowed to face the lineup for a third time. Bundy's last start, in which precisely zero balls were hit hard through 5 innings against the Angels, comes to mind, for one. The bigger flaw is that the 3rd time through numbers are incomplete. I went through Gray's starts and he hasn't been allowed to FULLY face 3rd time through the lineup even once this season. By fully I mean batters 1 through 9. He's been pulled a few batters into the third trip, as have most of the starters. Bundy in Arizona in June was the only starter I found this year that has been allowed to fully go through the lineup 3 times, and that was in an 11-1 game (I haven't checked Ryan and Smeltzer yet but I doubt they've done it. Archer and Ober I don't need to check). Since lineups are top-heavy, the stats against the lineup are going to look worse because you're only facing the BEST hitters 3 times. I'd venture that the statistics would look better if they'd be able to face the 7-8-9 hitters 3 times too. As the old saying goes, there are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
  24. Yawn Gardenhose
    The flaw of the "it's the front office's fault for giving Baldelli a bad bullpen" argument is that Baldelli, through his philosophy, has made the bullpen worse that it already is by overtaxing it. By choosing to have your starters go 4 innings in half of the games, by choosing to pull a cruising Bundy after 60 pitches last night - these unforced decisions create unneeded strain on an already strained bullpen. Now, the front office and Baldelli are simpatico in this philosophy - overthinking pitching staffs and baseball in general are in Falvey, Levine, Baldelli, and Johnson's DNA - so it's maybe a moot point after all. But the mere idea of letting Baldelli getting any extra benefit of the doubt in this argument is a flawed one. He's actively turning a 3/10 bullpen into a 1/10 bullpen through his very intentional decision-making of turning the starting staff into a glorified collection of openers.
  25. Yawn Gardenhose
    Terrible managing bailed out terrible managing today. Baldelli makes a bad move removing Smeltzer for Smith in the seventh, but Francona bailed him out by not pinch hitting Naylor and/or Kwan with Clement/Maile after Smith predictably pitched himself into a jam. And then Naylor doesn't bat in the ninth inning either...very head-scratching move, particularly when the last time Naylor swung a bat he hit a ball halfway to Anoka County. And removing Duran for Thielbar ... sheesh. That's a move that needs to backfire on Baldelli just to clearly show him how idiotic that is on its face. But, instead, he'll chalk it up as a managerial coup, and continue mismanaging this ballclub, whistling in the wind. One win today will translate into 3-4 losses in the future employing that philosophy.
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