Make It Official! Twins 4, Rays 3: Early Power, Dominant Pitching Help Twins Split Series in Tampa

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins needed a win on Thursday afternoon. Pablo López and the bullpen delivered. The lineup powered their way to an early lead, and the team’s top horses held on. It was a big win, as the Twins head to Kansas City for a huge AL Central series starting this weekend. 

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Pablo Lopez - 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K (91 pitches, 62 strikes (68.1% strikes))
Home Runs: Edouard Julien (8), Matt Wallner (11).
Top 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (.209), Jhoan Duran (.187), Edouard Julien (.160)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Pregame Transactions  
The Twins announced that Max Kepler was heading to the 10-Day Injured List with his knee injury. He hasn’t played for several days and isn’t experiencing any improvement. In addition, along with his ejection in his rehab game on Wednesday night, Byron Buxton also had a setback in his return from the hip injury. 

That combination meant that the Twins selected the contract of, and called up, outfielder DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. Keirsey has been tremendous at the plate and in the field for the Saints this year and is very deserving of the opportunity. 

To make room on the 40-man roster for Keirsey, LHP Kody Funderburk was transferred to the 60-Day injured list. 

While technically a minor-league transaction, RHP Josh Winder was placed on the 7-Day IL by the Saints. 

Pregame Notes
Since 2019, the Twins have gone 77-60 in September since Rocco Baldelli became manager. Skippers with more wins in September during that stretch include the Dodgers Dave Roberts (91), Atlanta’s Brian Snitker (81), Brewers/Cubs Craig Counsell (81), and Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash (78). 

Early Power from Offense 
Over the Twins’ previous nine games, 18 of their 29 runs had come in the seventh inning or later. While the Twins went scoreless in the first inning, they were able to put a crooked number on the scoreboard in the second inning. 

Jose Miranda led off with a single to left field. Carlos Santana followed with a line drive single to right field. That marked the seventh time he had reached base in his past 10 plate appearances. 

That brought Edouard Julien to the plate. On the first pitch, he saw a splitter that sat right in the middle of the plate at 91.5 mph. With his keen eyesight, Julien was able to see the rotation of the ball and the words “Hit Me Harder” written on the sweet spot. Julien took those words to heart, swung, and watched the ball travel 392 feet, well over the right field fence, at 105.3 mph and a 28 degree launch angle. The Twins led 3-0. 

With one out in the top of the third inning, Matt Wallner came to the plate. He saw a fastball at 96.2 mph for a ball. Taj Bradley tried to keep him off balance with a slow curveball at just 80.0 mph. On 2-0, Bradley likely hoped that showing the slow curve might make his fastball look a bit faster. He threw another fastball, this one at 97.2 mph. Wallner hit it at 105.3 mph with a bat speed of 80.7 mph and a 41 degree launch angle. It landed 357 feet from home plate, just into the bleachers and just beyond the reach of a leaping Jonny DeLuca.  That gave the Twins a 4-0 lead. 

On a side note, that was the 30th overall home run of the season for Wallner. It was his 11th with the Twins, but he also had 19 in his time with the St. Paul Saints. 

A Happy Pablo Day
Pablo Lopez made his 29th start of the season. He came into the game with a stretch of 20 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. He started Thursday’s game with two scoreless innings. However, with two outs in the bottom of the third, Junior Caminero drilled a line-drive single to right field with the bases loaded to drive in two runs. 

Lopez’s streak ended at 23 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings. The last time that number was achieved was in 2019, when Tyler Duffey went 24 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings out of the Twins bullpen between July 28 and September 25. 

Lopez followed the two-run third inning with a scoreless, 10-pitch inning in the fourth, and a scoreless, 14-pitch inning in the fifth in which he struck out three batters. He had a nine-pitch sixth inning. He was also throwing really hard. He had three pitches that registered over 98.0 mph. 

On the season, Lopez has averaged 94.9 mph on his four-seamer. On Thursday afternoon, he threw 38 four-seam fastballs. The slowest came in at 95.0 mph. The max velocity was 98.6 mph, and his average was 96.8 mph, just shy of two mph above his season average. 

Bats go Cold Through Middle Innings
Rays starter Taj Bradley made some adjustments and figured things out with his catcher Logan Driscoll. 

The Twins went scoreless in the fourth through seventh innings. In the fourth, he got three easy ground outs. In the fifth inning, Austin Martin walked and went to second on a wild pitch, but a ground out and a strikeout ended that threat. It was two strikeouts and a groundout for the Twins in the top of the sixth inning. Then in the seventh, Ryan Jeffers singled to right but was erased on a tailor-made double play off the bat of Willi Castro. That was followed with another strikeout. 

He gave up the four runs early, but overall, Bradley went seven innings and gave up six hits. He had just one walk, and he struck out 10 batters.

Wallner and the Wall  
With two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning, Yandy Diaz lined a ball down the right field line to drive in DeLuca and cut the lead to 4-3. In an effort to hold Diaz to a single, Matt Wallner went full speed, fielded the ball, took a couple of steps and then toppled over the side wall in foul territory. 

On the field, it was called a ground rule double, but Rays manager Kevin Cash questioned whether Diaz should get an extra base and get third base. There was a replay, and it took a long time, but this is such a unique play that it’s going to take longer. The delay was 10 minutes and the umpire informed the crowd that the call was made correctly on the field. Diaz gets second base. 

Ultimately, a very confusing play with many potential interpretations was reviewed and it was called correctly. 

Unfortunately, the long delay meant that Pablo Lopez’s day was done with 91 pitches. Rocco Baldelli went to the mound and had a pretty extensive (one-way) conversation with Lopez before pointing to the bullpen and summoning Griffin Jax. Lopez looked disappointed but understanding with the decision. 

Going to the Big Guys in the Bullpen!
In his previous start, Baldelli sprinted out to the mound to talk to Lopez when he was at a 100 pitches in a key spot in the game. In that case, he let him stay in. In this case, he went to the bullpen ace. Either option is a good option for the Twins. 

Jax came in, threw one pitch, and got an inning-ending ground out. He also struck out two batters in a scoreless eighth inning. Jax needed 13 pitches to get four outs. Jhoan Duran slammed the door with a 12-pitch bottom of the ninth for the save. 

How important were those last seven outs? Check out the Top 3 Twins players by Win Probability Added in this game. 

Other Notes
The Twins scored the four early runs, but that is about it. They had just two hits after the third inning. In fact, they were just 1-for-4 with runners in scoring position and left just four on base.

These two teams played seven times this season. The Rays won four of those games. Six of the seven games were decided by just one run!  

More to Come.

What’s Next?
The Twins head to Kansas City for a huge, late-season series against the Royals. On Friday night (on Apple TV+), Zebby Matthews (1-2, 7.41 ERA) will try to bounce back from his first rough outing. He will face left Cole Ragans (10-9, 3.46 ERA). The game begins at 7:10. 

On Saturday at 6:15 pm, Bailey Ober (12-6, 3.95 ERA) will try to overcome the issues that he has had with the Royals the last couple of seasons. He will face right-hander Alec Marsh (7-8, 4.70 ERA). 

On Sunday, Simeon Woods Richardson (5-3, 3.95 ERA) will hope to provide some innings. He faces veteran Michael Wacha (11-7, 3.50 ERA) in a 1:10 start. 

Postgame Interview  

Bullpen Availability Chart    

 

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[Peter]

Whew!!! That was way way way too stressful intense and nerve wracking 😬😬😬😬my nerves are shot!!! 😬😬😬😬huge huge huge huge win!!! Let’s go Twins!!!

[BH67]

Ella Fitzgerald and Nelson Riddle recorded the legendary "Something's Gotta Give" sixty years ago. The delights of love and not the Twins' muddling were Ella's focus in pointing out that tension eventually releases one way or another.

Yet our beloved Twins are facing that inevitability. Today was a hard-earned but stressful win. Something's gotta give one way or the other, and will, very soon.

[TheLeviathan]

Rocco'd again!  A team that's on pace to win 85-90 games despite a roster depleted due to ownership slashing payroll and the 11th most injuries in baseball?  Pathetic.  140-22 is what a real man would do.  Not this spreadsheet-reading nerd. 

We ought to just employ one of those vague, imaginary "better managers" that we will surely love and never toxically, chronically criticize.  Instead, we'll do what rational humans do - we'll say "nice job Imaginary Human Who Doesn't Exist and Never Will...you helped us win today" and when we're upset we'll say "Well, Totally Not Real Person, I disagree a bit with your decision today.  You're a fine Made Up Fantasy Being, but missed that one today"

Toxic TD Gamethread Posters' Imaginary Super Wizard Manager >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> StatfreakRocco

 

[wabene]

Baseball During Wartime

[DJL44]

Six game lead on the Red Sox and Tigers with 22 games left to go!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Pablo is the glue that will hold this wreck together until October 

[IndianaTwin]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Six game lead on the Red Sox and Tigers with 22 games left to go!

And what hasn't been mentioned often is that they are also only 4.5 behind the Orioles for the No. 1 seed. I know it's a very uphill climb given the injury situation and needing to pass three teams (though they play two of them yet), but it's worth noting for context. 

[GNess]

Great to see Pablo Lopez's increase inn velocity - especially this late in the season.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Pablo is the glue that will hold this wreck together until October 

You're right but once a week is asking a lot..

[ashbury]

Keirsey had a chance to make a real statement in CF on what instead ended up being a triple for Morel.  Not a black mark against him, but he could have earned a gold star.  I don't know whether Austin Martin could have hauled that one in either.  In my heart of hearts I'll believe that Buxton would have, of course.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Keirsey had a chance to make a real statement in CF on what ended up being a triple for Morel instead.  Not a black mark against him, but he could have earned a gold star instead.  I don't know whether Austin Martin could have hauled that one in either.  In my heart of hearts I'll believe that Buxton would have, of course.

Got to actually be on the field to make a play.....It's nice to dream on Buxton, but I'm never expecting more than 50-70 healthy games a year at this point. I'd seriously consider not playing him until July next year.*

*not really, but sort of. nah, well....hmmm...

[DJL44]

Twins Magic Number is 17!

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Got to actually be on the field to make a play.....It's nice to dream on Buxton, but I'm never expecting more than 50-70 healthy games a year at this point. I'd seriously consider not playing him until July next year.*

*not really, but sort of. nah, well....hmmm...

Okay, MAT then. 😀

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Okay, MAT then. 😀

I do think it is near certain Kiersey will field better than Martin (but I mostly blame the FO for playing Martin out of position nearly his entire time here at SS, when zero people felt he'd ever play there, zero, nada, none)

[Blyleven2011]

I didn't get to watch or listen to the game but was pleasantly surprised we won when̈ i looked up the results , julien finally hits a homerun , first since april or may and a 3 run homer at that  , tip your hat to miranda and Santana for getting some bloops and then a blast from Julien ...

Also that Kepler was finally put on injured list and twins promoted keirsey Jr  ...

Good luck kid , believe in yourself  and good things will happen  , you earned it ...

[mnfireman]

Accountability needs to be established and enforced. Lewis should have been pulled from the game after the pitch clock strikeout and should be benched tomorrow.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Accountability needs to be established and enforced. Lewis should have been pulled from the game after the pitch clock strikeout and should be benched tomorrow.

What will that do? Other than keep one of the best players out of the game? Do you think this punishment will fix things somehow?

[DocBauer]

A MUCH NEEDED win because we needed it, because we can't afford to slip further back, because we needed some good karma, and because we gained a 1/2 game on Cleveland.

KC has been reeling as of late and the Guardians are off to play the Dodgers in LA for a 3 game set. I'm not dismissing the Royals at all, but I'd still rather play them right now instead of the Dodgers. A chance the Twins pick up a game or two in the next 3 days?

Bad news is Ober...while fantastic all year except for a couple of games...hasn't had much luck against KC. I believe Matthews and SWR are also scheduled to throw. That's a fair amount of pressure on the rotation for this series.

One game at a time.

But I have to say, with no offense intended, Kepler has just been BAD the past couple of weeks with his knee. I think they waited too long, once again, to put him on the IL. Instead of playing short handed, I think he should have been moved a week ago and Keirsey brought up before now. The "maybe he'll be OK in a couple of days" mantra is getting old.

There's no way to predict if Keirsey will perform well or not. (Same for Helman). But you don't know if a prospect, even an older prospect, will show run with an opportunity, or show you he can help and maybe be part of the future, or bottom out, until he gets a chance. But keeping a 30yo OF sitting on the bench and virtually unplayable for a week or more just doesn't make sense vs giving a healthy player a chance to see if they can help.

Go Twins! Muscle up, get your heads clear, and sweep KC!

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What will that do? Other than keep one of the best players out of the game? Do you think this punishment will fix things somehow?

Best players was the cry when he hit timely home runs, that ship has sailed for now.

[mnfireman]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What will that do? Other than keep one of the best players out of the game? Do you think this punishment will fix things somehow?

Accountability in today's game is non-existent. The team is in a play-off race and Lewis gets called out on  strikes because he didn't get back in the box on time. The team has been struggling lately, every out, every AB/PA, every run counts. It was totally unacceptable, but he's "one of the best players" so let's just look the other way?? I call BS!! It's not going to happen so it doesn't matter.

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

And what hasn't been mentioned often is that they are also only 4.5 behind the Orioles for the No. 1 seed. I know it's a very uphill climb given the injury situation and needing to pass three teams (though they play two of them yet), but it's worth noting for context. 

And for further context worth noting, they are only (ONLY) 4 games behind those other two teams, and they are but a .500 team against the league without the 13-1 record against the White Sox. 

No reason to not have urgency, focus, and intensity. They have looked horrible in the field, this series, with little league type of plays. Tic toc. Time is running out.

Also worth noting, is that if they can't win the division and get the first round bye, they may want to finish 3rd and play the Astros in the 3 game wild card series and not the 

[IndianaTwin]

12 hours ago, h2oface said:

And for further context worth noting, they are only (ONLY) 4 games behind those other two teams, and they are but a .500 team against the league without the 13-1 record against the White Sox. 

No reason to not have urgency, focus, and intensity. They have looked horrible in the field, this series, with little league type of plays. Tic toc. Time is running out.

I’m not suggesting they should pack it in. I’m just noting that the whole batch of six current qualifiers is very tightly bunched and that there’s a clear break between 6 and 7 in the overall standings right now. 

 

And for what it’s worth, the Twins aren’t the only team that has feasted on the White Sox. Kansas City is also 12-1 against them. Among the other current playoff teams, the Orioles and Yankees are 5-1 and 6-1 respectively, and Houston is 4-2. And I suppose you could say, “Cleveland is an imposter. They’ve lost five games to a team that is only 27-104 (.206) against everybody else. And with three games to play, they are even in danger of losing the season series to Chicago.” 😄

And if you look behind the Twins, Detroit is 9-1 (three to play), Seattle 6-1 and Boston 2-2 (also three to play). So if you take the take the White Sox out of the picture, guess where the Twins would be sitting right now. Still with the 2nd Wild Card. 

[terrydactyls]

Two comments...

1. 4-3 against two sub .500 teams.  These games were among the "easy" teams listed in an article a few days ago about how soft the September schedule was.

2. Miranda is hitting over .300 for the year but doesn't seem to get nearly the coverage that three veteran players are getting for being on the Injured List.

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

A MUCH NEEDED win because we needed it, because we can't afford to slip further back, because we needed some good karma, and because we gained a 1/2 game on Cleveland.

KC has been reeling as of late and the Guardians are off to play the Dodgers in LA for a 3 game set. I'm not dismissing the Royals at all, but I'd still rather play them right now instead of the Dodgers. A chance the Twins pick up a game or two in the next 3 days?

Bad news is Ober...while fantastic all year except for a couple of games...hasn't had much luck against KC. I believe Matthews and SWR are also scheduled to throw. That's a fair amount of pressure on the rotation for this series.

One game at a time.

But I have to say, with no offense intended, Kepler has just been BAD the past couple of weeks with his knee. I think they waited too long, once again, to put him on the IL. Instead of playing short handed, I think he should have been moved a week ago and Keirsey brought up before now. The "maybe he'll be OK in a couple of days" mantra is getting old.

There's no way to predict if Keirsey will perform well or not. (Same for Helman). But you don't know if a prospect, even an older prospect, will show run with an opportunity, or show you he can help and maybe be part of the future, or bottom out, until he gets a chance. But keeping a 30yo OF sitting on the bench and virtually unplayable for a week or more just doesn't make sense vs giving a healthy player a chance to see if they can help.

Go Twins! Muscle up, get your heads clear, and sweep KC!

KC is w/o Vinnie which is why they are losing. He made up a lot of their offense. With him, they'd give CLE a lot more trouble. We shouldn't have that much trouble even in KC.

[Doctor Gast]

A nice much-needed squeaker win, thanks to good pitching. More than 9 out of 10 CFers wouldn't make that catch that Keirsey missed. That close to the wall the present Buxton might not have made that catch. The ease that Keirsey got to the ball made it look easier than it was. Under different situations, Keirsey would have made that catch.

[stringer bell]

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

A nice much-needed squeaker win, thanks to good pitching. More than 9 out of 10 CFers wouldn't make that catch that Keirsey missed. That close to the wall the present Buxton might not have made that catch. The ease that Keirsey got to the ball made it look easier than it was. Under different situations, Keirsey would have made that catch.

Big picture—I am trying to be impartial about Keirsey Jr. I hope he is a late bloomer who can be a big contributor for the next few seasons, but my skeptical side sees another Andrew Stevenson—speedy, decent glove, but not a big league hitter despite gaudy AAA numbers.

The play in question looked like a tough one—he wasn’t going to be charged with an error if he got leather on the ball—but I don’t know if he got a great jump and I don’t know if he showed elite sprint speed.  He made a better play for the ball than Siri did on Jeffers double in the ninth, that’s for sure.

Further, making one good/great catch doesn’t make him a defensive wizard and not making the catch doesn’t preclude him from playing center field. Perhaps the best catch all year by a Twin was Austin Martin robbing a homer and so far he’s shown to be overmatched as a center fielder. 

[Whitey333]

BUXTON?  Who's that?  Anyway nice win.  The team is only .500 since the all star break.  They were fortunate to split that series against a depleted Ray's team.  The Twins really didn't play well in Tampa.  They have lost 11 of their past 17 games.  The only thing saving them is everyone else in the wild card playoff race is playing crummy too.  They will for sure make the playoffs.  They are pretty firmly entrenched in the second wild card slot.  To blow it now would be catastrophic.  Twins go to KC while Cleveland plays the Dodgers this weekend.  There is a great opportunity there for the Twins to pick up some ground.  Go Twins.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Got to actually be on the field to make a play.....It's nice to dream on Buxton, but I'm never expecting more than 50-70 healthy games a year at this point. I'd seriously consider not playing him until July next year.*

*not really, but sort of. nah, well....hmmm...

May - July - September/October might work for ‘25………it’s a pretty sad situation!

[Patzky]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

What will that do? Other than keep one of the best players out of the game? Do you think this punishment will fix things somehow?

He's kind of an anchor in the lineup right now . Maybe bat 8th and cross your fingers .