Even the Twins Don't Seem to Know What Matters Most to Max Kepler

[Matthew Trueblood]

He's been a solid contributor over a long tenure in the organization. He's on the doorstep of free agency, but he's already gotten his biggest payday. Tuesday night, he seemed to make a business decision, at a moment that demanded less business and more carefree #want.

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

There are still managers left in MLB who will throw their players under the bus. Some do it when they sense that it's the only (or simply the most appropriate) way to motivate a player who responds only to certain styles of confrontation or accountability. Some do it when they simply lose composure and can't hold onto their own turbid frustrations any longer. For some, of course, it's a mix of the two.

The salient fact, here, is that Rocco Baldelli is not that type of old-school. Like the majority of managers coming into the game over the last decade or so, he maintains a code of professionalism that doesn't permit making an example of anyone, or pointing fingers. When he feels it's fair, he will sometimes call out the overall effort or focus of his team, but even that is reserved only for time when he truly feels there's been a collective sag that requires a collective rededication. He doesn't ever lay one of his own players bare for media or fan criticism.

He came about as close as he ever will, though, in response to a question after Tuesday night's loss about a play on which outfielder Max Kepler should have attempted to score, but stopped at third. The choice probably cost the Twins a run, and it was a bad, bad look.

The mention of Kepler's lingering knee soreness isn't to be ignored. Kepler is, undoubtedly, playing at a bit less than 100%, something he doesn't do especially well, and it's only fair to account for that issue when evaluating choices or moves he makes on the field. When Baldelli says there was more to a conversation that he'll keep private, though, he's speaking in the code he's gradually developed with Twins media and fans. He was upset with Kepler, and outside the public limelight, he let his player know it.

Well he should have, too. That was an inexcusable failure of effort, from a player who has shown too strong a tendency toward self-preservation before. It was a tricky play, with the ball behind him in the right-field corner, and given the pace with which it was hit, much about the go/stay decision for a runner depends on the prior positioning of the defense and the cleanness of their collection and relay process. Kepler had to count on Tommy Watkins, his third-base coach, for that, and it looked like Watkins was a bit indecisive. He gave his player the wave, but it did come slightly later than might be typical.

The problem is clear, when you see Kepler approaching third base as the camera cuts to him: he was breaking it down even as he approached the bag. A right fielder himself, he knows that corner better than anyone else alive, and he knew that Carlos Santana had hit it so hard into the corner that he would get there very quickly most of the time. He made an independent decision not to extend himself and test his knee.

If he had adequately assessed Atlanta's positioning before the play, though, he would have seen that Jorge Soler was playing well off the line before the pitch. Soler also isn't as fast as even this aged version of Kepler. He does have a strong arm, but he wasn't in a position to use it. Kepler should have scored on the play. If he had kept running, he almost certainly would have been safe. In any scenario in which he was out, the Atlanta defenders would have made such a good play that you just shrug and move on.

Instead, Kepler seemed to shrink from the potential damage of turning on the afterburners with his knee still balking; the danger of a possible collision at the plate; and the difficulty of changing gears after starting to decelerate a bit. He can see free agency from here, and he didn't want to hit the market as damaged goods. Unfortunately, that's as good an explanation for his willingness to play through this issue (when he's so often gone on the shelf with similar ones) as the fact that his star teammates Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are already out.

At this point, Kepler is a marginal contributor. Giving him playing time instead of any of Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, or José Miranda feels like a losing proposition for the Twins, though it occasionally happens, just for the maintenance of all four players' health and out of deference to Kepler's veteran status. It's fair for him to want to protect his own health, but he has to have the situational awareness and baseline hustle to be in position to score on a play like that. With one out, stopping at third could have been harmless; the Twins were a bit unlucky not to score for the balance of the inning. That factor might also have been in Kepler's mind; he's generally been a smart player.

On balance, though, this was an egregious failure of effort, at a juncture of the season when the Twins can't afford it. This is a rough stretch of the schedule, going very badly for the team, and they need to seek out and occasionally force good moments, rather than sit and wait and hope things come round right. It's a stretch that tests what you really want, and how badly.

Modern baseball analysis leans hard toward the mechanical, the strategic, and the antiseptic. There is, however, still a significant role for emotion, intensity, and desire in the game, especially as August tilts toward September and the stakes of every game steadily rise. Great teams need talent and data-driven feedback, but they also need energy, selflessness, and leadership. Kepler is a deeply respected player, and a tone-setter, even if he's not often a vocal leader. On Tuesday night, his energy and his selflessness--and, by extension, his leadership--was insufficient.

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[USNMCPO]

Watching the play it seems to me that Tommy was just as responsible for the play as Kemper. Neither did well.

[Karbo]

Although I agree that Tommy was at least 1/2 the problem, it seems to me there are a few guys that haven't had their head in the game lately. Missed cut-off throws, poor infield play, and what looks like hitters being a little over anxious or jumpy at the plate. In other words, not playing fundamentally well. Max never seems to be running hard, but he usually does all right on the base paths.

[Patzky]

43 minutes ago, USNMCPO said:

Watching the play it seems to me that Tommy was just as responsible for the play as Kemper. Neither did well.

Tommy's judgement has fallen under scrutiny far more often than Max's has this year. Just saying.

[chpettit19]

I haven't seen an overhead shot that shows Watkins so it's hard to tell what happened. Listening to the broadcast clip it sounds like Watkins waived him late. If Rocco is upset with Kepler it would seem the vast majority of the blame should be pointed at him. But I'd like to hear why Watkins was so late waiving him. From the clip it looks like Kepler is at 3B before/as Soler is picking the ball up at the wall. That should've been an easy waive from the start.

I don't like questioning player's character, effort, etc. I don't know them. There was a poster on yesterday who was upset with Lewis because he smiles on the field too much. People used to always get on Mauer because he didn't react as outward emotionally as they wanted. Claimed it meant he didn't care. I think those are outlandish takes. Somebody not reacting the way you would doesn't mean they aren't as competitive, don't care as much, or aren't effected. But if Rocco is throwing veiled jabs at Kepler I'd think it's fair to assume this situation involved more than his knee or a late Watkins waive. Not a good look for Kepler. I don't know if it's about free agency as the article suggests, but not a good look no matter what the real problem is.

[Ricky Vaughn]

None of us knows how bad his knee is. Its possible his knee wouldn't let him run any farther. It's also possible he was trying to stay healthy enough to keep playing knowing Buxton isn't coming back anytime soon, as this team rarely tell the truth about injuries.

Also you don't have any proof that he is thinking about free agency in that moment. He could have stopped for any number of reasons.

[USAFChief]

Seems to me it's 100 percent on Watkins. I strongly doubt Kepler's slowing going into third unless there's a stop sign up, later changed too late. 

Live, you could see Kepler upset with Watkins immediately. 

[Mike Sixel]

If he's not healthy enough to run, maybe someone else should be on the roster. It's not like he's hitting bombs.

As for this play, I'm going with Chief here. 

[bean5302]

Watch the video recap. Max Kepler clearly had a not happy conversation with Tommy Watkins at 3rd. Also, The Twins sent Kepler over and over last year only to watch him be thrown out. He's not even an average runner at this point. Max is at fault for not looking for a potential signal change once he started slowing down. 

This article is quite the personal hack job.

[MMMordabito]

Are you kidding me? Terrible article.

That play was all on Watkins, and you could tell Kepler was pissed at him.

Trueblood joining the clickbait crew.

[Guest]

Life is a little bit too relaxed at Club Rocco....

[Cody Christie]

 

 Here's some of the video with an explanation

[ashbury]

"More to the conversation that he'll keep private."  I would not rule out that the "private" portion concerns Watkins.

Watkins is a great ambassador for the team - I remember a night in the Arizona Fall League when Tommy spotted me and my son Bashbury down low in the stands, post-game, wearing our Twins gear, and waved to us and then initiated a greeting when I didn't respond, as though we were long lost relatives or something.

The Twins perhaps need to find a role now for Tommy that plays to his strengths again. 😀

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

"More to the conversation that he'll keep private."  I would not rule out that the "private" portion concerns Watkins.

Watkins is a great ambassador for the team - I remember a night in the Arizona Fall League when Tommy spotted me and my son Bashbury down low in the stands wearing our Twins gear, and waved to us and then initiated a greeting when i didn't respond, like we were long lost relatives or something.

The Twins perhaps need to find a role now for Tommy that plays to his strengths again. 😀

Yup, no telling what happened behind closed doors and what conversations or instructions each guy had previously.  Really it's just another of those mental oops that have been all too common lately.  Make the mistake at full speed please.

I don't discount the premise of the article though. Max has been in this position before and a private conversation last year led to a pretty strong second half.  As private as Rocco is, we seem to hear about this with Max more than anyone.

[USAFChief]

23 minutes ago, ashbury said:

"More to the conversation that he'll keep private."  I would not rule out that the "private" portion concerns Watkins.

Furthermore, this statement from Rocco does just the opposite of "keeping it private."

If you're not going to discuss it, don't discuss it.

The passive/aggressive "more in private" only serves to increase speculation and finger pointing, rather than prevent it.

For proof I give you the OP.

 

[Doctor Gast]

Never been a fan of our base coaches, IMO it was all on Watkins. Watkin seemed to fit in with the old no stealing don't take any chances philosophy. But now, the Twins need to change their philosophy along with their coaches. Unless the runners make up their minds to go & ignore Watkins's original sign they don't go, especially the veterans.

[Road trip]

Max is Max.  Largely the same player he has been for years, now with a bad knee.  He's had a solid career, even if he never became a star.  We'll likely miss his defense next year, even if we don't miss his bat.

Watkins may be a great coach in many respects....I have no idea, but he doesn't appear to be very good at coaching 3rd.  Accurately determining when to hold or send runners is by far the most impactful part of his in-game job, as he rarely has to relay signs to bunt, steal, hit and run, or take a pitch (because the Twins almost never utilize any of these strategies).  Thus, his performance can be measured almost entirely by his success rate at holding or sending runners.  I don't know if there are stats out there, but I suspect they are not good.  He seems to get it wrong a lot.  I hope someone else is manning that spot next year...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

The mention of Kepler's lingering knee soreness isn't to be ignored.

Ok so I won’t ignore it — do we actually know why Kepler’s knee is sore? 

@Matthew Trueblood

@Cody Christie

 

 

[Schmoeman5]

51 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Never been a fan of our base coaches, IMO it was all on Watkins. Watkin seemed to fit in with the old no stealing don't take any chances philosophy. But now, the Twins need to change their philosophy along with their coaches. Unless the runners make up their minds to go & ignore Watkins's original sign they don't go, especially the veterans.

Yeah but if Max is injured. Why is he in the OF? He will get hurt even more playing out there. Are they trying to sabotage Kepler like they did Kirilloff?

[jmlease1]

Watkins is immensely frustrating as a 3B coach; he's made some real whoppers out there. Feels like a bad fit for him. A little hard to tell clearly in this case whether Watkins is reacting to Kepler or Kepler is reacting to Watkins, maybe? But feels like neither covered themselves in glory. If Kepler's going hard from the jump and aware of the situation, maybe Watkins stays confident in his signals. Then again, it's Tommy Watkins who by all accounts is a really good guy and pretty meh in terms of his stop & go signals.

Maybe Rocco was mad at Kepler for not knowing the situation and going hard. Maybe he was mad at Kepler for getting into it with Watkins. Maybe he thought Kepler threw Watkins under the bus a little. Who knows.

Been a pretty mediocre year for Kepler with a lot of slumps. He's looked rotten the last 2 weeks (last night against the Braves he looked like he'd never seen a slider before when he came up in the 7th) and his 5-35 stretch over the last 2 weeks has dragged his whole month right now into the trash. Plenty to be unhappy about with Kepler, who isn't not exactly having a strong walk year.

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

Are you kidding me? Terrible article.

That play was all on Watkins, and you could tell Kepler was pissed at him.

Trueblood joining the clickbait crew.

Joining?  I believe there was an article in early May. Should Kepler have stayed at 3rd. Where he questioned whether he should have scored after a pitcher was injured.

[twinstalker]

Am I mistaken that Kepler jogged to 3B?  How is that Watkins fault?  Watkins was obviously confused by a guy who wasn't running full speed.  That should have been a run, and it was Kepler's fault it wasn't.  If he can't run, well, then he shouldn't be out there, obviously.  I've had quite enough of him and, frankly, wouldn't mind if he were placed on the 60-day DL with this knee thing.

[Cody Christie]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Ok so I won’t ignore it — do we actually know why Kepler’s knee is sore? 

@Matthew Trueblood

@Cody Christie

 

 

There is a piece of bone floating around in his knee. He's been playing with it all season. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/max-kepler-hits-game-winning-rbi-single

[Linus]

29 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Am I mistaken that Kepler jogged to 3B?  How is that Watkins fault?  Watkins was obviously confused by a guy who wasn't running full speed.  That should have been a run, and it was Kepler's fault it wasn't.  If he can't run, well, then he shouldn't be out there, obviously.  I've had quite enough of him and, frankly, wouldn't mind if he were placed on the 60-day DL with this knee thing.

I think this is part of the mess. Watkins assumed Max would get to third much quicker than he did. Max is a conservative guy when it comes to putting it out there. For example he may dive for sinking liners less than any other good outfielder I’ve seen. Having said all that this isn’t the first time Watkins has pulled the old split second stop and go. More confusion over there than there should be. 

[Ted Schwerzler]

Neither Kepler or Watkins should be absolved, but it’s at least a little funny that this was a headline earlier in the year…

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

31 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

There is a piece of bone floating around in his knee. He's been playing with it all season. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/max-kepler-hits-game-winning-rbi-single

Thanks; I don’t think that’s the reason. Baldelli had Kepler pencilled into the lineup Sunday then Kepler was a late scratch. 

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Joining?  I believe there was an article in early May. Should Kepler have stayed at 3rd. Where he questioned whether he should have scored after a pitcher was injured.

 

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Neither Kepler or Watkins should be absolved, but it’s at least a little funny that this was a headline earlier in the year…

 

Thanks for digging that up. 

[Reptevia]

Rocco’s team is very iffy on fundamentals and hustle. Almost no one runs out a ground ball. 

[chaderic20]

There's a lot of speculation about Kepler's motivation and thought process in that article being unfairly presented as fact.

Watching it on TV I was surprised he didn't score, but even Cory on the broadcast immediately mentioned Tommy's conflicting signals, and yes you can clearly see Max's frustration with Tommy immediately after the play. I think there's enough blame here for each of them to take some. Max does need to be more aware of the situation/play for himself, but when your coach changes his signals THREE times you have every right to be confused about what to do. Remember, Max can't see what's going on behind him, so even though he should have an idea what he's going to do as he rounds second before picking up Tommy, he is relying on Tommy for final confirmation on whether to go or not. 

All that said, I do agree that it seems this whole team has been a little lifeless lately. Things aren't going well and everyone seems be sorta going through the motions just hoping it will get better. No excitement or fire when when someone makes a good play or big hit, no picking each other up or encouragement when someone makes a mistake, mental lapses, poor fundamentals, not taking the extra base, etc. I think this team is sorely missing Correa's leadership.

Edited August 29, 2024 by chaderic20
Typo

[Bodie]

11 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Rocco’s team is very iffy on fundamentals and hustle. Almost no one runs out a ground ball. 

The only thing where you see 100% effort is with a swing.... 

I'd say bring back Gardenhire, but I doubt he'd want anything to do with such a collection of fundamentally BAD players. 

Tom Kelly might... I really don't know what he'd do - he'd be running out 5 man lineups due to his overflowing doghouse!