Padres 7, Twins 5: Bullpen and Baserunning Blunders Abound

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins feasted off of former Twin Martín Pérez, but some baserunning mistakes and the soft underbelly of the Twins' middle relief corps cost them, as the Padres scored six late-inning runs to secure the series win.

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (83 Pitches, 56 Strikes, 67.4%)
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (20)
Bottom 3 WPA: Steven Okert (-.721), Ober (-.160), José Miranda (-.147)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

In what felt like a blink of an eye, a four-game winning streak and a four-run lead in Texas Sunday became a two-game losing streak. As opposed to the dysfunctional Rangers, Tuesday's opponent was the red-hot San Diego Padres, who authored the second half of what the Twins hoped would be only a miniature backslide. On the plus side, Bailey Ober was starting for the Twins, and he has been outrageous since June, with the changeup becoming a signature pitch for the massive righty.

Opposing Ober was Martín Pérez, an enigmatic relic from the Bomba Squad days. Pérez has periodically been good for a handful of teams throughout his career, and was periodically good in this game, as well. The Twins started quietly, with the first five batters being retired in order without much hard contact to speak of.

Similarly, Ober started efficiently, retiring the first five hitters in 18 pitches. Wünderkind Jackson Merrill (Is it me or does his batting stance look exactly like Freddie Freeman's?), who almost singlehandedly won the game and ruined Zebby Matthews Day on Monday, managed to lace a two-out double into the gap, and scored on a grounder up the middle from veteran David Peralta.

The Twins appeared to counter quickly, with Max Kepler and Austin Martin starting the third inning with singles. Manuel Margot was not told (or chose to ignore it, if he was; let's assume the former, for everyone's sake) to bunt, and that decision was certainly defensible, but he grounded into an easy double play to kill whatever rally there was.

They capitalized, instead, in the fourth. Following a leadoff double from Carlos Santana, Pérez left a cutter in the middle of the plate that Ryan Jeffers demolished for his 20th home run. 

Meanwhile, Ober was lulling the Padres to sleep. He relied on his usual routine of coaxing soft enough contact early in counts that Padres hitters were caught in between jumping on pitches early in counts and hitting medium-deep fly balls, or working the count and risking the wrath of his wipeout change. This one, in particular, made on-base machine Jurickson Profar look like a blindfolded Chris Parmelee:

The top of the fifth began the same way as the top of the third, and the results were almost as disastrous. With Kepler and Martin aboard and no outs, Margot again chose (or was told) not to bunt, but this time singled to left (and all the analytics nerds went wild). That brought up Royce Lewis to face Pérez (.386 BAA the third time through the order). Lewis delivered a sacrifice fly to score Kepler. Martin aggressively took third, and the ball got away from Manny Machado at third. Martin tried to score, but he was thrown out easily, putting a damper on another rally that was extinguished when Santana grounded out to end the frame.

The bottom of the seventh saw Jake Cronenworth open the frame with a bloop double placed perfectly between Miranda and Matt Wallner, in left. That portended doom, with Machado stepping to the plate, and the six-time All-Star did not disappoint his home crowd, launching a no-doubter to left-center to tie the game at 3-3 and end Ober's night. Ober's command was sharp all night, but his 0-1 cutter to Machado was middle-middle.

The Twins got right back to work in the next half-inning against the prize of the trade deadline, lefty reliever Tanner Scott. Lewis led off with a single off the glove of shortstop Tyler Wade, Santana laced a hard single to left, and Jeffers smoked a single up the middle. That brought up Miranda, who popped out after being reprimanded by home plate umpire Malachi Moore for protesting a check-swing call. No matter, as Christian Vázquez pinch-hit and stroked a single to left to score Lewis and Santana. Jeffers was thrown out at third on an incredible play by left fielder Profar, who delivered an accurate throw while running toward the left field stands at top speed. So instead of one out and runners at second and third, it was two outs and a runner at second. Willi Castro then attempted to bunt and was thrown out easily to end the inning.

The two-run rejoinder should have given the Twins and their fans a lot of confidence going into the bottom of the eighth, but these Padres haven't exactly been rolling over when behind late in games. The legend Donovan Solano led off as a pinch-hitter against Steven Okert, who took over for Griffin Jax, and hit a sharp single on an 0-2 pitch. The even more legendary Luis Arráez flipped a single to left, and just like that, the segment of the lineup that had made Okert an appealing choice for Rocco Baldelli had slipped by without an out being recorded. Profar, who had struck out three times against Ober, golfed a go-ahead three-run homer faster than you could say Kody Funderburk.

Okert actually produced a worse WPA in this game than Jorge Alcalá posted Sunday, at -.721. For the season, Okert sits at -1.82.

The Twins went down 1-2-3 in the ninth against Robert Suarez to end it.

Trends:

	Healthy	Hurt
Performing Great
Fine
Poor
IL/Minors
C	Ryan Jeffers 📈	Christian Vazquez 📈
1B	Carlos Santana 📈	Alex Kirilloff 📉	Jose Miranda 📈
2B	Edouard Julien 📉	Kyle Farmer 📈'
3B	Royce Lewis 📉
SS	Carlos Correa 📈	Brooks Lee 📉
LF	Matt Wallner 📉	Trevor Larnach 📈	Austin Martin 📈
CF	Byron Buxton 📉	Manuel Margot 📉
RF	Max Kepler 📉
UTIL	Willi Castro 📉
SP	Pablo Lopez 📈	Bailey Ober 📈	Joe Ryan 📉	Chris Paddack 📉	Louie Varland 📈
RSP	David Festa 📈	Zebby Matthews 📈	Simeon Woods Richardson 📈
CR	Jhoan Duran 📈	Griffin Jax 📈
SR	Brock Stewart 📉	Jorge Alcala 📉	Cole Sands 📈
MR	Trevor Richards 📈	Caleb Thielbar 📈	Steven Okert 📉
LR	Josh Winder 📈	Ronny Henriquez 📈	Randy Dobnak 📉

 

Stray Notes:
-Miranda is hitting a lot of balls on the ground, and although he managed a single in the sixth, he was picked off of first base. That was one of three key outs on the bases

-Jeffers joins an exclusive club of 20-homer Twins catchers. Mitch Garver, Joe Mauer and Earl Battey are the only other members.

What’s Next: Simeon Woods Richardson (4-3, 3.77 ERA), faces knuckleballer Matt Waldron (7-10, 4.29 ERA) trying to salvage the series. Waldron has been a godsend for the Padres, posting 138 solid innings for a rotation that has been decimated by injuries thus far. Waldron doesn't just throw knucklers, although that pitch does constitute 39% of his pitches. It will be interesting to see the Twins' approach against a pitch that no one else in the majors throws in a very important game.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Richards	0	0	13	27	0	40
Jax	19	0	9	0	10	38
Henríquez	0	27	0	0	10	37
Alcalá	0	9	19	0	0	28
Sands	18	9	0	0	0	27
Thielbar	18	0	0	9	0	27
Okert	8	0	0	0	19	27
Durán	13	0	6	0	0	19

View full article

[tony&rodney]

That's the way the world goes round.

[BH67]

I'm a Rocco Baldelli fan. But I need at least a week to process him making bullpen decisions that surpass 41-Doughnut twice in 54 hours.

[knothole61]

Too many weak links in the pen...it's really painful to watch. 

From the beginning this seemed like a trap series to me. Coming off what should have been a four-game sweep of the reigning world champions (and on the road at that!) I sensed a good bit of confidence afoot that the Twins might take 2 of 3 in San Diego. But I knew that the Padres are a good team and, judging from my experiences in Petco Park, the young, well-lubricated, and vocal fan base (truly Wrigley-esque) can create an intense, playoff like, environment even on a pleasant Tuesday evening in August.

Baseball is very streaky and it’s too soon to give up, even on a Division pennant, but this  "54 hours" of bullpen implosions has been hard to take.   

[USAFChief]

We need a MLB manager.

 

 

 

[Alex Wilde]

Does Okert realistically provide any value to the bullpen at this point? His negative WPA and WAR has put a huge damper on the otherwise solid bullpen. I still cannot think about him without remembering the grand slam he gave up against Seattle to lose a game earlier in the year. Just dump him and try someone else at AAA or claim someone off of waivers. It doesn’t really matter that he’s a lefty if his isn’t any good at getting lefties out. He’s the 8th guy in the pen and if he had an option left his ass would have been in St. Paul two months ago.
 

[GNess]

The three losses in a row have seen  multiple failures by the bullpen and lack of discipline running the bases. Alarmed? - No,, but a bit concerned. Given how close the chase for a playoff spot is it's no time for this to be happening. The races will likely come down to a game or two.

On a somewhat related note - this team needs Correa and Buxton back asap.

[CoastiePilot08]

What is the point of Okert?

what an *******. 
 

**** the pohlads in particular tonight 

[Parfigliano]

33 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

We need a MLB manager.

 

 

 

Today he was definitely not bringing his best.  Post game he admitted others were available but repeatedly dodged why Okert was chosen.  Even he knows (now) it was a bad choice.  

[S Bart]

I attended the game this evening in SD (many CA Twins fans in attendance). I simply cannot figure out Baldelli. Similar to Alcala a few days ago, Okert gets rocked BAM BAM.. He should have left Jax in for a 2nd inning. Baldelli inserts left-hand pitcher Okert, Arraez singles (does not matter with him who pitches) and the Padres insert right-hand batter Solano who promptly singles. Then switch hitter Profar homers. Why was is it necessary to make this move constantly? If the Twins do not make the playoffs, the team needs to consider a manager change.

[1985Fan]

With all his analytics tools Rocco still runs Okert out there? We all knew that was going to end badly as it always does when Okert pitches. Since they traded Nick Gordon (since released) for him, they’re going to keep Okert on the roster no matter what he does! It’s the Twins way. 

[Blyleven2011]

38 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

We need a MLB manager.

 

 

 

Awful selection bringing okert in with a lead ...

Okert's melt down  brings back acala's melt down  way to soon ...

We need a major league manager  and a few major league  arms for the bullpen ... 

[Parfigliano]

3 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

With all his analytics tools Rocco still runs Okert out there? We all knew that was going to end badly as it always does when Okert pitches. Since they traded Nick Gordon (since released) for him, they’re going to keep Okert on the roster no matter what he does! It’s the Twins way. 

Yup.  It is.

[Fezig]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

We need a MLB manager.

 

 

 

83 pitches and six innings is enough for the one to remain nameless. I can't call him what I'd like to because the powers that be like to suspend people for that. But I agree, this loss is on the mgr.

[CRF]

Two out of the last three games, are all on the manager. Nice job by Okert. He should be DFA'd today. 

[Riverbrian]

I typically don't comment on the game unless I actually watched the game.  I went to bed around the 4th inning. 

However, I will put my helmet on and say this. 

Okert vs LHB - OPS .530 - 59 PA's

Okert vs RHB - OPS .956 - 88 PA's

The batting order in the 8th for the Padres went Left, Left Switch, Left, Right, Right.

If you have an Okert on your roster... That's when you deploy an Okert. Left Left Switch Left. 

Now... That may sound like a defense of Okert or a defense of Baldelli. It's not. If I could direct your attention to the 88 PA's vs RHB and the 59 PA's vs LHB. 

This is what happens when you roster specialists. Okert gets lefties out but faces more right handers. 

When you face more right handed hitters to the tune of OPS .956 WHIP 2.06. Is there anything special left about this specialist?

I'd contend the benefit has been drowned. 

Okert, Margot... Same damn boat as far as I'm concerned. 

Oh Well... Today is a new day. Strap it on... Go Twins.  

 

 

 

[Peter]

This this can’t happen rest of season!!! First Sunday with Texas and now last night-Crushing loss!!! How do the twins bounce back from this? 😤🤬😥😭

[Whitey333]

Another loss on the manager.  One of many this year.  Twins will likely make the playoffs as a wild card but certainly no guarantees even there. Buxton and Correa are needed in the lineup soon.  Maybe it's more comfortable for them to be on the injured list than to be helping their teammates during this stretch drive.

[Doctor Wu]

Well, that was an ugly loss. But this line you wrote:

This one ... made on-base machine Jurickson Profar look like a blindfolded Chris Parmelee.

Man, that's almost poetic. Good stuff!

[William K Johnson]

There is no way this team can be successful with the current structure of the bullpen.   BTW, Correa and Buxton are not relief pitchers.    The bullpen has been a major problem all season and still cannot believe that the front office did not acquire a left-hander at the trading deadline.   So, this season is essentially going down the drain due to an inadequate bullpen and front office ineptitude.  How frustrating!!

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

We need a MLB manager.

 

 

 

Need an MLB bullpen and our MLB hitters back

[Patzky]

29 minutes ago, CRF said:

Two out of the last three games, are all on the manager. Nice job by Okert. He should be DFA'd today. 

Sounds like you want Jay Jackson back

[Doctor Wu]

In the article you noted that Jeffers joined "an exclusive club of 20-homer Twins catchers" which included Garver, Mauer, and Earl Battey. And my first thought was: what about Tim Laudner? But then I checked the records and the most he hit for the Twins was 16 in 1987. I used to watch him when he played for the Orlando Twins in AA ball, and recall that he DID hit 42 homers back in 1981, thus my recollection of him being a big power hitter. Just not quite big enough!

[CRF]

20 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Sounds like you want Jay Jackson back

Don't want Jackson, don't want Okert...and they can take the manager right along with them. 

[insagt1]

Quote

While the pitching in the 8th was poor, the baserunning in the game was also poor and costly. Why Jax couldn't have gone one more inning is a head-scratcher. Play to win, not play by a book.

 

[Patzky]

5 minutes ago, CRF said:

Don't want Jackson, don't want Okert...and they can take the manager right along with them. 

Maybe you want a six man bullpen hm . Gotta have a better solution than send people away without suitable replacements. You're fired doesn't work.

[TwinsDr2021]

I would like to point out Jax has went more than one inning ONCE this year and that was May 8th against Seattle, I was watching the game and I told my son I would leave Ober in, three innings is asking a lot tonight from this pen. On the SD broadcast they said Ober has been the best pitcher in the MLB for his last ten starts maybe give him a chance to prove it.

 

[MMMordabito]

1 hour ago, Peter said:

This this can’t happen rest of season!!! First Sunday with Texas and now last night-Crushing loss!!! How do the twins bounce back from this? 😤🤬😥😭

You forgot 🤮

[MinnInPa]

these base running blunders are happening way too often..guys getting thrown out at 2nd trying to stretch a single.....getting picked off....running on contact from 3rd and thrown out by a mile.... potential big innings are being wasted by little league mistakes

[Hubie29]

29 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Maybe you want a six man bullpen hm . Gotta have a better solution than send people away without suitable replacements. You're fired doesn't work.

Simple addition by subtraction.