Four Injured High-Ceiling Pitchers the Twins Could Add at the MLB Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s front office has received criticism for acquiring pitchers who have quickly ended up on the injured list. Does targeting a currently injured pitcher before the MLB trade deadline make sense?

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Injuries are part of the baseball landscape, especially for pitchers who continue to push the limits of how hard pitches can be thrown while increasing spin rates. Minnesota’s current front office has tended to trade for injured pitchers or injury-prone players who lived up to that reputation immediately after arriving. Anthony DeSclafani (0 appearances), Sam Dyson (12 appearances), Chris Paddack (five appearances), and Tyler Mahle (9 appearances) all were limited after being acquired by the current regime. It’s time for the front office to double down and find another injured pitcher to add to the team for the second half. 

I wrote about why the Twins continue acquiring injured pitchers during spring training. Some of those reasons include increased pitching injuries across the baseball landscape and the front office's valuation of the team’s top prospects. At the trade deadline, these reasons remain true, and the names below might come at a discounted price because of their current injury situations.

Blake Snell, Giants
Injury: Groin
Snell sustained a groin injury during his June 2 start versus the New York Yankees and was placed on the IL the next day. The reigning NL Cy Young winner had a tumultuous offseason searching for a long-term deal before signing a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants. There is an opt-out after the 2024 season. Snell has made six starts this season and allowed 25 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings. San Francisco sits below .500 and has multiple teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. Snell has expressed frustration with the Giants wanting him to rush back and help the big-league team. A change of scenery may help Snell to regain his previous form. 

Justin Verlander, Astros
Injury: Neck
Verlander went on the 15-day IL in the middle of June after trying to pitch through a neck issue. The three-time AL Cy Young winner also missed the season’s start due to inflammation in his right shoulder. In ten starts this season, he has posted a 3.95 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP, a 21.3 K%, and a 7.1 BB%. Houston struggled to start the year and has slowly crawled back to .500. The Twins, Royals, and Red Sox sit ahead of the Astros in the Wild Card standings. Houston hasn’t missed the playoff since 2016, and the team has been in the ALCS for seven consecutive years. Verlander would need to agree to a trade, and it seems unlikely for the Astros to be sellers, but a poor stretch in July might force their hand. 

Alex Cobb, Giants
Injury: Hip, Shoulder
Cobb underwent hip labrum surgery in November and has been dealing with shoulder soreness in recent weeks. He had an MRI on the shoulder, and there was no structural damage, so the Giants gave him a cortisone shot. Cobb is starting to throw live bullpens, which should put him closer to making a rehab start if everything goes as planned. He would need to get into game action and prove his splitter is back for a team to take a chance on him. That said, Cobb has a chance to be a playoff-caliber starter and might come at a lower cost than some of the other names on this list. 

Paul Blackburn, A’s
Injury: Foot
Blackburn has a stress reaction in the fifth metatarsal of his right foot and has been on the IL since mid-May. He made eight starts this season and posted a 4.11 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. Over the last three seasons, he has been a mid-rotation starter with a 91 ERA+, 7.9 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9. Blackburn is also intriguing because he is still arbitration-eligible next season, which means he likely comes at a higher cost. At this point, he might not be an upgrade over some of the Twins’ internal options. However, the front office values depth and acquiring Blackburn would add depth through the end of next season. 

The Twins acquired a playoff-caliber starter with questionable health in the form of Tyler Mahle, but fans may have PTSD because of how poorly it went for the club. At this year's deadline, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will be in the market for some of the bigger-named starting pitchers like Chicago’s Garrett Crochet and Detroit’s Jack Flaherty since they currently play on AL Central rivals. This will leave the front office searching for other options, including some of the names listed above. With injury risk, there can be reward or discontent. The Twins can hope for more positive results by acquiring one of these starting pitchers.

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Should the Twins trade for a pitcher with a recent injury? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[old nurse]

Snell, 30 million player option for next year.  The FO can’t trade for that. Blackburn only makes sense if his trade value is a low minor league reliever with a high era. Cobb might be a good add

[Doctor Gast]

I wouldn't take Snell even if he was healthy & had a lower price tag, Verlander will not be for sale, I don't trust Cobb's health & Blackburn, IMO not worth risk. Normally I wouldn't go for a recently injured SP who isn't 100% & doesn't know how soon or if he'll be 100% & then go through the ramp-up.

One idea of mine is (CIN) Montas. Montas is 100%, coming off past injuries. He has also gone the same path as Sonny Gray. Ace for OAK, stumbled in NYY & recovered in CIN then traded to MN, where he's developed into a CY candidate. Since Montas has the same path as Gray, could that mean they have the same destination? I liked both Gray & Montas while in OAK & I like to think so. IMO he'll be a cheap rental. What do you think?

[mikelink45]

Good grief - no.  Haven't we already proved this is not a good idea.  I know we think it is bargaining pricing but add the lost year to the possible good one and the cost is too high.  Has anyone added the salaries paid to Mahle, DeSclafini, Dyson, Paddock, Pineda, Topa during their injury years?  We could probably sign a good pitcher for the amount spent.  

[DocBauer]

Nope.

[CRF]

Yeah, right...let's go down this road again. 

[olerud]

Much ado about nothing the twins are not going to spend at the deadline to Suggest so is dumb

[tony&rodney]

Really?

[Linus]

The first filter for all of these articles should be is the proposed player making any money?  If yes just move on as the Twins aren’t going to add anything significant to payroll. 

[bean5302]

I'm all for Snell if he's pitching like the ace he was last year. If Snell finishes the season out strong, he is not going to opt in to $30MM. He's going to take his 5yrs $100MM vs. risking another down year. The Twins have never traded for an ace mid year to the best of my memory. Snell shouldn't really be that expensive, if available, due to the rough start to the season and his current payroll.

Joe Ryan's having a career year right now, and there's nothing in his advanced metrics to suggest there's huge regression coming, and Lopez has not pitched dominantly this year. The Twins really need a #1 starter to take Gray's spot for the playoffs. 

[Old Crow]

Nooooo!

[Hubie29]

I would look for a pitcher that has had their pitching arm amputated.  If you even have to pose this question, why not?

[Major League Ready]

Trading for Snell (right now) might be the worst idea I have ever read on this site.  Who knows, he could get healthy and thrive but there has to be a better option.

[DocBauer]

29 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Trading for Snell (right now) might be the worst idea I have ever read on this site.  Who knows, he could get healthy and thrive but there has to be a better option.

Additionally, while he's had an OK career, that's pretty much his career in a nutshell except for 2 amazing seasons isn't it?

I mean, healthy, he's had a fine career. But he hasn't been worth $30M a year except for those two special years. And if he continues to have issues...or at least be average at best...he might just opt in for 2025 and the Twins ownership would have multiple coranaries were that to happen! LOL!

IF the Twins WANTED to trade for an injured arm, they should call up the Rockies and ask about German Marquez. He'll be coming off TJ surgery in 2025, has some untapped potential still, and will only cost about $10M.

That one would at least make SOME sense.

Pineda was a smart signing on a rehab deal. Dyson and Mahle were traded for SEEMINGLY healthy. Dyson was hiding an injury and Mahle had a few issues, but NOTHING showed up in tests or imaging to say his elbow was giving out.

The Twins...and every team I'd say...don't trade for injured pitchers.

What the Twins DO at times is sign someone who is coming OFF injuries and might turn in to something. Again, Pineda, and Stewart in the pen. 

Just a ridiculous notion that probably should have been a Randball Stu comedy piece.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I wouldn't take Snell even if he was healthy & had a lower price tag, Verlander will not be for sale, I don't trust Cobb's health & Blackburn, IMO not worth risk. Normally I wouldn't go for a recently injured SP who isn't 100% & doesn't know how soon or if he'll be 100% & then go through the ramp-up.

One idea of mine is (CIN) Montas. Montas is 100%, coming off past injuries. He has also gone the same path as Sonny Gray. Ace for OAK, stumbled in NYY & recovered in CIN then traded to MN, where he's developed into a CY candidate. Since Montas has the same path as Gray, could that mean they have the same destination? I liked both Gray & Montas while in OAK & I like to think so. IMO he'll be a cheap rental. What do you think?

I live in Cincinnati……Montas started the season red hot …….not so impressive since. The Reds organization thinks they are a decent club that’s been snake bitten by injuries……couple guys that have maintained health are underperforming.

National League has a real chance of a Wildcard getting in with 85 wins. Due to this, everyone “has a chance” and few will sell. They also have a bunch of guys that are up & coming or hurt - no NEED. for prospects. 

Montas is interesting. He may not be much different than Paddack though. The Reds only have him this year - somebody that can contribute, that they can control, may be enough……,they’d be dumping salary, which they like.

Maybe for Okert? Maybe for Sands?….,these guys could help the Reds in ‘25.

[Brandon]

The Twins have 5 solid starters right now:

1. Lopez

2.  Ryan

3. Ober

4. Paddack

5. Woods-Richardson 

We even have Festa and Varland as back up starters 

Why do we need a starter exactly?  

At best I can see us acquiring a reliever or maybe a backup OF to replace Margot.  I doubt the Twins are willing to add much to payroll at the deadline.  If anything, I can see them shopping Farmer, Margot or Velazquez to cut payroll back a little. 

[Fatbat]

None of those are realistic. A premium position at a premium price this trade deadline is not a smart business decision….

[Doctor Wu]

I'll join the chorus: No no no no no ... and no again. Trading for players with injury histories is always risky, and the Twins haven't played the odds well in that respect. And this particular bunch profiled doesn't do anything to make me change my mind. A very hard pass on these guys. 

[TopGunn#22]

None of the listed pitchers would probably be of any interest to the Twins.  If the Twins really had ANY interest in Snell, they would have signed him before all of his current struggles, both in performance and with health.  

The Twins need a pitcher with a solid major league track record, who is currently healthy and who would sign for a very cheap contract, maybe throw in some incentives, because I'm sure we would all agree, they are probably NOT adding much to the payroll for the rest of this season.  

There might be a guy who fits this profile out there, but I doubt the Twins would want to trade any minor league talent to get this kind of guy.  Paddack is currently hurt and out of the rotation.  If we're honest, Festa didn't really pitch that well in his first start, giving up 5 runs in 5 innings, but they've got to give him a longer look.  Lopez has looked better.  Ryan is pitching really well, and Ober has looked better recently.  SWR has earned the #4 spot unless he goes on a month long slide.  

[Trov]

I would not look for any of them.  Snell will pick up his option for next year most likely, so unless the Giants put in a ton of cash, it will be hard taking on his money for next year.  Snell has had 2 Cy Young seasons wrapped around several injury filled middle of road seasons. Verlander is someone I would take on but he will not leave Houston for Minnesota.  He like Houston and unless they are fully out of it he will not go anywhere.  The other 2 just no. 

[Otaknam]

No thanks. Been there, done that. And it was disastrous! 

[Whitey333]

No to all of them.  

[LambchoP]

Twins aren't taking on payroll this year. Sure they could use a number 1 or 2 type starter. But the few that will be available such as Crochet will have astronomical price tags. Sellers market. Just not gonna happen for us this year. I think if anything they'll pick up a reliever or two. Hopefully a good lefty to replace Theilbar. Then dump Farmer and call up Lee. Thatd be s great deadline imo...

[Mike Sixel]

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Trading for Snell (right now) might be the worst idea I have ever read on this site.  Who knows, he could get healthy and thrive but there has to be a better option.

This entire article! Glad I skimmed it and didn't waste two minutes of my life. Wowsers. 

[minman1982]

I would rather have the Twins add a high impact relief pitcher or two before the deadline, unless there is an offer that is so good that you have to take it. Of these four, Snell costs too much, Verlander isn't leaving Houston, Cobb's hip surgery plus now sore shoulder are a real concern, and Blackburn is no better than the options currently at the back end of the Twins rotation or sitting in St. Paul. 

[bean5302]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Additionally, while he's had an OK career, that's pretty much his career in a nutshell except for 2 amazing seasons isn't it?...

I mean, healthy, he's had a fine career. But he hasn't been worth $30M a year except for those two special years...

..Just a ridiculous notion that probably should have been a Randball Stu comedy piece.

2016 = 3.39 FIP 
2017 = 4.19 FIP 
2018 = 2.94 FIP, Cy Young
2019 = 3.32 FIP
2020 = 4.35 FIP
2021 = 3.82 FIP
2022 = 2.80 FIP
2023 = 3.44 FIP, Cy Young

Better than you could expect from any Twins pitcher on the roster.

Blake Snell ranks 17th in MLB for pitcher fWAR from his rookie season on (21.5) despite time missed due to pretty frequent injury woes vs. say a bottom #2 or very good #3 workhorse like Jose Berrios (19.3). Snell's biggest issue is injuries. Now, would I like Snell on a $30MM AAV contract? Nope. But if Snell is pitching well enough for a team to acquire, he's opting out of that barring serious injury anyway.

Even better news, assuming the Twins ate the remainder of his contract this year, it's not $30MM, it's $10MM, but because it's $10MM, and because Snell's $30MM opt out is actually a negative, he's not going to command a huge trade deal package.

Snell isn't my favorite target, but he's one I'd be interested in because if he's healthy, he becomes our #1 starter. By all means, though, skimp on the front of the rotation and do the same thing which led to the Twins not winning a single playoff game for the longest streak in pro sports history.

[Hubie29]

14 hours ago, Brandon said:

The Twins have 5 solid starters right now:

1. Lopez

2.  Ryan

3. Ober

4. Paddack

5. Woods-Richardson 

We even have Festa and Varland as back up starters 

Why do we need a starter exactly?  

At best I can see us acquiring a reliever or maybe a backup OF to replace Margot.  I doubt the Twins are willing to add much to payroll at the deadline.  If anything, I can see them shopping Farmer, Margot or Velazquez to cut payroll back a little. 

Paddack? Seriously, you must be joking. 

[jkcarew]

Because, the FO has a GREAT track record of identifying injured pitchers who are on the verge of regaining full effectiveness.

No, wait…that’s not it.

Because the FO has a GREAT track record of identifying pitchers on the verge of retiring due to injury.

Never mind.

[SotaSports in NM]

Not saying I agree or disagree with this theoretical approach, but have y'all considered that guys with injuries in their past likely come with a discount, thus they are more palatable to the Twins? Of course, this wouldn't be the case for all pitchers we've traded for, but nonetheless. I don't think I would automatically say no to a trade until considering the cost, including those proposed above.