Edouard Julien is On the Clock

[Cody Pirkl]

Edouard Julien has followed the path of several other young players who appeared to break out in 2023. In other words, he's been a massive disappointment in 2024. As he continues to struggle, could he be running out of time?

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Edouard Julien burst onto the scene last season, with a plate approach that made him a lock as a future core piece of the lineup. His elite eye at the plate was complemented by enough power to make pitchers pay when he was ahead in the count. So far in 2024, that approach isn’t working, and he’s been one of the least productive regulars in the team's inconsistent lineup.

On the season, Julien is slashing .199/.302/.372, and he’s struck out nearly 35% of the time. His numbers don’t even tell the story of how badly he’s struggled recently, as he’s slashing .167/.225/.183 in May, with a strikeout rate closer to 40%. He’s now a below-average hitter on the season, and at least for Sunday’s game against the Rangers, has finally been removed from the leadoff spot.

Julien’s plate approach may have been more of a highwire act than initially believed, as several plate discipline numbers have slightly regressed. He’s chasing about 3% more than he did in 2023 and swinging at pitches in the zone slightly less. The result has been a complete disaster. So far this season, there has been no challenger for his job at second base for the big-league club, but that’s about to change.

At long last, Brooks Lee has begun a rehab assignment, after a back injury delayed the start of his season. After flashing the skills that made him a top prospect in spring training, he’s gotten off to a hot start. In his first five games, Lee has posted an OPS over 1.000. These numbers don’t have much objective meaning, as they come from the low levels of the minor leagues. Still, they’re a good reminder that Lee would have almost certainly been on the Twins roster already if healthy and will be pushing them to make the addition shortly.

The question is where Lee fits. Royce Lewis will likely retake third base, and Carlos Correa occupies Lee’s natural position at shortstop. Considering how the season has gone offensively for Julien and Kyle Farmer at second base, if Lee shows that he’s healthy, the Twins may have an obvious decision to make in the coming weeks.

It’s a disappointing conversation to have regarding Julien, who looked locked into the top of the Twins lineup for years to come just a month or two ago. If the swap is indeed made for Lee at some point, we have to hope that a demotion to St. Paul leads to an opportunity to stabilize his approach and return quickly, rather than sinking further into the abyss, as we’ve seen from Matt Wallner.

We’re reaching the point of the season where it’s time to shake up the unproductive parts of the roster. Last year, Julien was one of the replacements who led the Twins to their dominant second half. This year, he could be one of the ones getting replaced. Should the Twins be quick to make the Julien-for-Lee swap when the latter is ready to go?

View full article

[Brandon]

Sounds like a good idea to me.  

[Craig Arko]

I’d hire Joe Mauer as a special consultant to work with Eddie, mostly on developing a good two-strike approach. He’s got to learn to foul off those close pitches he’s been taking for called third strikes.

[Karbo]

10 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I’d hire Joe Mauer as a special consultant to work with Eddie, mostly on developing a good two-strike approach. He’s got to learn to foul off those close pitches he’s been taking for called third strikes.

I agree that his 2 strike approach must change. He just can't let these close pitches go by. He needs to learn to just foul them off. But its not just that. He is taking good pitches to hit in the zone. I think when Lewis gets back they should send him back down for a reset. I'm not giving up on him, just think he needs some time to rebuild his confidence.

[Parfigliano]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I agree that his 2 strike approach must change. He just can't let these close pitches go by. He needs to learn to just foul them off. But its not just that. He is taking good pitches to hit in the zone. I think when Lewis gets back they should send him back down for a reset. I'm not giving up on him, just think he needs some time to rebuild his confidence.

This.

[DJL44]

I think you need to go down another layer to figure out what's happening. Chasing 3% more often is sample size noise.

I have a feeling this is about pitch location. He has a hole down and in, knows it and doesn't like to swing at pitches down and in. Now the pitchers know that as well and he will need to adjust. Even the photo you have above shows him swinging late on a pitch down and in. To pull that pitch for power he needs to make contact in front of the plate.

[Greglw3]

27 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I’d hire Joe Mauer as a special consultant to work with Eddie, mostly on developing a good two-strike approach. He’s got to learn to foul off those close pitches he’s been taking for called third strikes.

Good idea!

[Greglw3]

With Lee going 4 for 5 at ST. Paul and Lewis healthy, I’d say it’s time to call them both up now. And I’d call up Keirsey as the main Buxton backup and 4th OF while I’m at it. Keirsey had .400 OBP s OPS about .846 vs lefties last I checked.

[BH67]

So, this is Eddie's Miranda warning.

[Doctor Gast]

The "all or nothing" swing that the Twins have pushed has a lot of holes in it. Students of that swing throughout their development Larnach, Wallner & Julien had success & Kepler adapted that swing & was successful. But MLB pitchers easily adjusted, Like Jeffers who ditched that approach last year, Kepler & Larnach adjusted. Unfortunately, Wallner & Julien have not & suffered greater than-expected regression & have had trouble adjusting their swing. Like Wallner, Julien needs to go down & reset & it won't be easy to unlearn the old swing & relearn a new one.

[Greglw3]

8 minutes ago, BH67 said:

So, this is Eddie's Miranda warning.

Ha ha!!! He’s been read his rights!

[Greglw3]

6 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The "all or nothing" swing that the Twins have pushed has a lot of holes in it. Students of that swing throughout their development Larnach, Wallner & Julien had success & Kepler adapted that swing & was successful. But MLB pitchers easily adjusted, Like Jeffers who ditched that approach last year, Kepler & Larnach adjusted. Unfortunately, Wallner & Julien have not & suffered greater than-expected regression & have had trouble adjusting their swing. Like Wallner, Julien needs to go down & reset & it won't be easy to unlearn the old swing & relearn a new one.

I agree with you and recall too that they almost ruined Austin Martin by insisting he produce more home runs until he went back to his old line drive approach. `When will the Twins braintrust ever learn?

[Eris]

This comment isn’t necessarily about Julian but about the Twins hitting in general. I have seen this year too many occasions when hitters would not swing at a fastball right down the middle of the plate. It seems that they are being coached to look for a certain pitch in a specific location that they can drive and if it is not that they let it go. 
 

I have often wondered how many times in his career Ted Williams did not swing at a fastball in the heart of the hitting zone. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 minute ago, Greglw3 said:

I agree with you and recall too that they almost ruined Austin Martin by insisting he produce more home runs until he went back to his old line drive approach. `When will the Twins braintrust ever learn?

They do that with all their players. Lewis did the same thing, all the good hitters are able to reject that approach & find their swing on their own. Others who aren't that confident like Noah Miller (who's doing well away from MN) flounder. We are losing out on good players.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

16 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

With Lee going 4 for 5 at ST. Paul and Lewis healthy, I’d say it’s time to call them both up now. And I’d call up Keirsey as the main Buxton backup and 4th OF while I’m at it. Keirsey had .400 OBP s OPS about .846 vs lefties last I checked.

Who goes?

DFA Margot is an easy one.

Option Kirilloff?

DFA Santana?

They could DFA Farmer, but then SS gets rather thin if Correa gets injured. Castro is bad there, Lewis and Lee have both been injured and probably can’t jump into the deep end with both feet.

that’s where I get a bit nervous DFAing the vets. The young guys have been hurt and inconsistent. Better inconsistent than consistently bad…. But the injuries 

[mrtwinsfan]

Austin martin is and will never be a above average outfielder, he has a zero arm for any outfield , We all see it dont they ? he was tried there only because of the surplus of infield at the pro and aaa level , Fine i get that - but now it hasent worked , why not give Julien-[Mr Picky]a reset in a.a.a and use martin at 2b, , Twins and this Positional flexibility is not for EVERY player, Martin has played the infield -Drafted very high as a S.S. has played 2b plenty,  no arm strength issues then either,  Only problem with this is Roccos  Kyle Farmer issue , who is at the end of a Career soon, and Martin who ?? Twins have alot invested in -  Berrios Trade --, and now Brooks Lee is close also, Twins need to know what we have for now and long term , Julien is lost at hitting and it shows , So why even play Farmer there for Eddie, makes zero sense if they go that way,  and if Martin gets hot - Great or Julien does in st paul ,  July trade for More starting pitchers  ??  I.D.K.  but Rocco needs to look beyond one or 2 games, 

[Linus]

Julien had an unsustainable babip last year. Several of us posted that he was a huge regression candidate especially as the league adjusted to him. He now needs to go to St Paul just to get his confidence back  Lee has not played any second base yet so I would put Castro there. It won’t be perfect but he handles things in the field ok no matter where they put him. 

[Blyleven2011]

It hurts to say it but Julian's struggles need to get straightened out or someone else is always fighting for a spot ...

Looks like he needs a different scenery in St Paul  to light a fire in him ,,, did the homeruns in April  ruin his hitting ???  ...

I'm sure he is working hard to get straightened out but he isn'thelping the team right now ...

We need his 2023 bat ...

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

With Lee going 4 for 5 at ST. Paul and Lewis healthy, I’d say it’s time to call them both up now. And I’d call up Keirsey as the main Buxton backup and 4th OF while I’m at it. Keirsey had .400 OBP s OPS about .846 vs lefties last I checked.

That's too much change too fast for the Twins and many fans! But re Julien.. someone has to take grandpa's keys.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Can Castro play second base? A Castro - Farmer platoon is underwhelming. As bad as Julien has looked, I think you take your chances with him and hope he turns it around. 

It is not deserved but I think Miranda does when Lewis is ready.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Part of the problem is whatever the big league team is preaching to the hitters, it's not working. 

If you look at the young guys who come up, they typically get off to a fast start, adjustments are made and they fall off a cliff. Lewis was the outlier but he's a special player. Guys like Julien, Wallner, Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda and Martin have had stretches where they don't look like major league hitters. Why is that?

[RpR]

30 minutes ago, Linus said:

Julien had an unsustainable babip last year. Several of us posted that he was a huge regression candidate especially as the league adjusted to him. He now needs to go to St Paul just to get his confidence back  Lee has not played any second base yet so I would put Castro there. It won’t be perfect but he handles things in the field ok no matter where they put him. 

Put Farmer there, his K rate is low and he will overcome the horrid fortune he has had with his batted balls finding a fielder.

Time for Julien to take the train Gordon did.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

The "all or nothing" swing that the Twins have pushed has a lot of holes in it. Students of that swing throughout their development Larnach, Wallner & Julien had success & Kepler adapted that swing & was successful. But MLB pitchers easily adjusted, Like Jeffers who ditched that approach last year, Kepler & Larnach adjusted. Unfortunately, Wallner & Julien have not & suffered greater than-expected regression & have had trouble adjusting their swing. Like Wallner, Julien needs to go down & reset & it won't be easy to unlearn the old swing & relearn a new one.

Seems like Wallner has not learned yet.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Who goes?

DFA Margot is an easy one.

Option Kirilloff?

DFA Santana?

They could DFA Farmer, but then SS gets rather thin if Correa gets injured. Castro is bad there, Lewis and Lee have both been injured and probably can’t jump into the deep end with both feet.

that’s where I get a bit nervous DFAing the vets. The young guys have been hurt and inconsistent. Better inconsistent than consistently bad…. But the injuries 

DFA Margot.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

Put Farmer there, his K rate is low and he will overcome the horrid fortune he has had with his batted balls finding a fielder.

Time for Julien to take the train Gordon did.

Farmer has the lowest hard hit rate and the highest ground ball rate on the team. That is not a recipe for BABIP progression to the mean

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

DFA Margot.

When bringing up 3 players, one must take 3 players off the roster. Assuming Julien, that’s two

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Farmer has the lowest hard hit rate and the highest ground ball rate on the team. That is not a recipe for BABIP progression to the mean

What? You're not clamoring for more of Farmer's .163/.265/.244 "hitting?"

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, mrtwinsfan said:

Austin martin is and will never be a above average outfielder, he has a zero arm for any outfield , We all see it dont they ? he was tried there only because of the surplus of infield at the pro and aaa level , Fine i get that - but now it hasent worked , why not give Julien-[Mr Picky]a reset in a.a.a and use martin at 2b, , Twins and this Positional flexibility is not for EVERY player, Martin has played the infield -Drafted very high as a S.S. has played 2b plenty,  no arm strength issues then either,  Only problem with this is Roccos  Kyle Farmer issue , who is at the end of a Career soon, and Martin who ?? Twins have alot invested in -  Berrios Trade --, and now Brooks Lee is close also, Twins need to know what we have for now and long term , Julien is lost at hitting and it shows , So why even play Farmer there for Eddie, makes zero sense if they go that way,  and if Martin gets hot - Great or Julien does in st paul ,  July trade for More starting pitchers  ??  I.D.K.  but Rocco needs to look beyond one or 2 games, 

Martin played mainly 3B at Vanderbilt. TOR & MN wanted to convert him into a power-slugging SS. IMO 2B is Martins best position until he learns OF, like getting down his throwing. Martin once he gets situated at MLB will be a tremendous lead-off guy. Even better than Arraez because Martin can really steal bases.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Put Farmer there, his K rate is low and he will overcome the horrid fortune he has had with his batted balls finding a fielder.

Time for Julien to take the train Gordon did.

I kind of admire your blind allegiance to veterans like Farmer, Margot, Santana, and Vazquez. 

We all get older though, so far at least.

[twinstalker]

This is just a guess, but it appears that Julien sees the ball's path much better than he sees it out of the hand.  Problem with that is the path is misleading if you aren't sure of the pitch itself, which seems to be the issue.  And that could be total bunk, I don't know.

The best hitters flirt with a 15% K rate in the minors.  Julien's was never less than 24% in any year-level.  EmRod's similar or worse than Julien in that respect.  Take even a power hitter like Pete Alonso, his K rate was between 15-20%.

So it's not surprising that MLB pitchers get Julien out.  To strike out 25-30% in the minors means there's a hole in your swing.  MLB pitchers inevitably find it.

So last year during spring training when certain people were talking up Julien, you might have found a couple scoffing comments from yours truly.  K rate doesn't lie, generally.  25-30% K rate in MiLB means there's a hole in your swing, and MLB pitchers will find it.  15-20% K rate in MiLB means you likely can pay attention to other predictors, such as exit velocity and such.  No hard and fast rules, but that's my take from years and years of determining predictors of MLB success.

Royce Lewis is going to be an interesting case study for many reasons.  His K rate wasn't great, and it wasn't horrible, but his barrel rates and exit velocities are likely excellent.  Nobody's had time to find his weaknesses.  That portends early success, and from there it's all about his smarts, work ethic, and ability to adapt, which is far more likely than it is with Julien or EmRod, because he probably doesn't have a pronounced hole in his swing like they do.

Honestly, if they could get real value (and $$$ efficiency), trading EmRod this year is probably the smartest move they could make.  The question is if they could find that perfect player in return.  I think a superb defensive CF like Ceddanne Rafaela has hitting chops that haven't been shown in MLB, but I doubt the Red Sox would give him up for EmRod, even with his slow start.

Note on re-read:  I've always like Julien and think he has a chance to be good.  There are a lot of things to like and seemingly only one thing to figure out.  He has power, speed, eye, and doesn't chase much.  I just didn't think he'd slide seamlessly into MLB.  On the other hand, I grabbed him early (years ago) on my dynasty teams.