Is This Process Worth the Results for Byron Buxton?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have been ripping off wins at a breakneck pace to get their start of the season turned around, and Byron Buxton has remained on the field for the vast majority of their games. Despite an uptick in production of late, does what seems like a failing process have greater concerns as the year goes on?

 

A season ago the Twins were forced to play Byron Buxton only in the designated hitter role as his body continued to fail him and a nagging knee injury wasn’t going to let him play the field. That only worked for a period of time before it was determined his offensive production wasn’t suited for a lineup-only role.

As Buxton got off to a strikeout stretch last season I wondered if he had sold out for too much Miguel Sano-like tendencies in the process. Less of the doubles hitter he was earlier in his career, Buxton adopted a career-high 58.2% pull rate in 2022. That resulted in a swing from 30 doubles in 2019, and 23 in 2021, to a career-best 28 home runs to propel him towards a first time All-Star Game appearance.

It’s not necessarily fair to create substantive opinions based on 2023 after it was revealed the level of pain Rocco Baldelli’s center fielder was playing through. Now healthy though, Buxton has played in 26 of Minnesota’s first 28 games with 18 starts coming in the outfield. It is also fair to note that Buxton is now 30 years old, with additional mileage on his lower half due to the myriad of injuries he has suffered.

So, what’s going wrong? A very notable piece of the problem is an inability to catch up with the fastball. Having seen very little live action since shutting things down last August, there was always going to be a level of rust. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever, and as Nick Nelson pointed out a couple of weeks ago, Buxton is doing nothing with a pitch he used to feast on. Getting behind on the fastball is something that compounds everything else, and that’s where the picture gets murkier.

Buxton has never seen less fastballs at any point in his career. Getting them just 46% of the time, pitchers know that when he’s going well he will do damage there. They are combatting his tendencies and lack of plate discipline with the highest amount of sliders and changeups he has ever seen. The lack of discipline has played out to the tune of a 37.1% chase rate, something he hasn’t touched since 2019. The whiff rate at 19.8% is causing a 33% strikeout rate, and combining with the third-worst walk rate among qualified hitters is an issue.

For Buxton to be productive with this process, he has to hit for power. He changed that aspect of his game a few years ago, and he’s not enough of an on-base threat to make anything else work. His 110.5 mph max exit velocity is down 6 mph from where it was last season and his 90.0 mph average exit velocity is diminished as well. When he is making contact, it’s not hard enough to do anything productive and it took him 21 games to crush his first home run.

There are very few players that can strike out at a rate as gaudy as Buxton does, while having the rest of the pieces work. A 32/2 K/BB isn’t going to get it done even with a boatload of home runs, and doing it with only a few extra-base hits sprinkled in makes things complicated. Signs of life are improving as the Twins center fielder owned an .849 OPS over his last 13 contests coming into Tuesday night’s game against the White Sox, but with a 14/1 K/BB in that same stretch, the needle is still being threaded entirely too thin.

For a guy who talked about his health this spring, and has backed it up, his process doesn't currently play into his strengths. While he's not the slap hitter the Twins initially groomed his as, any desire he had to steal bases (let alone 30) is entirely rooted in getting on base. He doesn't hit a ton of singles, and there's often little benefit in him grabbing the 90 feet between second and third. If he's going to start swiping second and utilizing his 29.3 feet per second (97th percentile) sprint speed, then walking to first every once in a while would be a good idea.

It’s great to see Buxton back in full capacity, but either there’s a significant amount of rust or some tweaks still keeping him from being the player that the Twins need in the lineup on a nightly basis.

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[bean5302]

Buxton got overhyped by writers and fan sites. It's not a surprise he's unable to live up to the "MVP!!!!" type of production he's now expected to show. That said, it's strange to see an article like this now when he's been raking for the past couple weeks.

Last 10 games .324/.395/.529 OPS .924 wRC+ 167. 5.3% BB, 26.3% K.

Buxton is coming around and I expect he'll produce at the wRC+ 120ish level on the season, which is the kind of hitter he's been from 2019-2024.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Buxton got overhyped by writers and fan sites. It's not a surprise he's unable to live up to the "MVP!!!!" type of production he's now expected to show. That said, it's strange to see an article like this now when he's been raking for the past couple weeks.

Last 10 games .324/.395/.529 OPS .924 wRC+ 167. 5.3% BB, 26.3% K.

Buxton is coming around and I expect he'll produce at the wRC+ 120ish level on the season, which is the kind of hitter he's been from 2019-2024.

This was the exact response to be expected. The problem is how he's getting there is not sustainable. His counting stats are fine, the stuff under the hood is beyond ugly. He's struggling with the fastball, but pitch recognition largely looks like a guessing game until he eventually runs into something. He's toting a .400 BABIP in that stretch, which is enough to make Danny Santana blush.

It's an approach that he turned towards a few years ago, but the more extreme it gets, the greater the peaks and valleys.

Edited May 1, 2024 by Ted Schwerzler

[Jocko87]

Short answer, yes.

Longer answer, also yes, very much please.  He is worth his contract just on defense, as Willi Castro will attest and the bat will be fine. 

As long as he's healthy, we will be ultimately be pleased with the results.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Buxton got overhyped by writers and fan sites. It's not a surprise he's unable to live up to the "MVP!!!!" type of production he's now expected to show.

Also, I'm not sure how a guy with multiple 4.0+ fWAR seasons, and his trajectories minus the injuries, constitutes being overhyped. With his defense, an .800 OPS or so makes him a perennial MVP candidate. This just isn't the way to sustain his offensive production.

[Parfigliano]

He should quit quit quit trying to pull every single pitch.  He cant do it and hasnt been able to for years.  DBs and TRs are his sweet spot.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

He should quit quit quit trying to pull every single pitch.  He cant do it and hasnt been able to for years.  DBs and TRs are his sweet spot.

bunt every ball, and he will get on a base a hell of a lot more 😉

[Jocko87]

8 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

He should quit quit quit trying to pull every single pitch.  He cant do it and hasnt been able to for years.  DBs and TRs are his sweet spot.

When we see some right center line drives, buckle up. It's always been his key.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Buxton got overhyped by writers and fan sites. 

Overhyped?  Not sure where that is coming from... When healthy, he has been very productive.  Streaky, but very productive.

Even a Buck playing 120 games in the OF with average offensive production is worth what he brings.

[EGFTShaw]

The correct answer is this totally speculative.  Fairness it was not presented as anything else, but we just hit May 1st.  This would be a good conversation to have on July 1st if the usage is the same.

It lies with Buxton, training staff and team as to how he feels and how much management wants to manage his workload.

All of us Chair GM, Chair Managers and Chair Physical Trainers all have opinions without any actual data to the day-to-day health of Buxton.

He looks healthy.  There was no way in hell that ChiSox were going to get him at the plate from 2nd based on the RBI hit by Kepler Monday night.

Let's just hope Buxton is honest with the trainer and training staff.

 

[IndianaTwin]

2023: Byron only DHs at the beginning of the season (and as it turns out, for the year as a whole).

TD response: "What?!?!? Byron has to play CF to be valuable. Just stick him in CF and let him play as long as he can. Then put him on the IL."  

 

2024: Byron plays in 27 of the first 29 games, with 18 starts in CF. 

TD response: "Does Byron need more rest?" 

 

I fear we're well on the way to Brock's dead-horse emoji. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Agreed Ted. Buxton prospered under his own process but him morphing into the Twins process has done him bad, especially him having the rust set in, he can't catch up to the fastball. Trying to catch up to the FB makes him vulnerable to the off-speed. He needs to find the swing that he can comfortably stay with the FB. Buxton has been MVP caliber player, IMO he can return to be one if he changes & finds himself.

[h2oface]

And the man of glass hurts himself trying to steal a base today. Damn. And he was doubled up easily.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

This was the exact response to be expected. The problem is how he's getting there is not sustainable. His counting stats are fine, the stuff under the hood is beyond ugly. He's struggling with the fastball, but pitch recognition largely looks like a guessing game until he eventually runs into something. He's toting a .400 BABIP in that stretch, which is enough to make Danny Santana blush.

It's an approach that he turned towards a few years ago, but the more extreme it gets, the greater the peaks and valleys.

 

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Also, I'm not sure how a guy with multiple 4.0+ fWAR seasons, and his trajectories minus the injuries, constitutes being overhyped. With his defense, an .800 OPS or so makes him a perennial MVP candidate. This just isn't the way to sustain his offensive production.

We're talking about 60 batted balls this year for Buxton, who will always be a very streaky hitter because he strikes out a ton, doesn't take walks and typically hits a lot of fly balls (and a lot of those are usually popups) where he depends on home runs. Just like you pointed out in the article. Because of his batted ball tendencies and the sample size we're working with, it doesn't take more than a handful of well hit balls to shift the expected outcomes for him pretty dramatically at this point. His 100 PA rolling xwOBA this year was fine for the first couple weeks, and then he started slumping. I expect he'll be fine as the same size expands. Right now, he's getting results, and hopefully he'll get some confidence and his timing will improve just like Willi Castro's has.

I maintain Buxton is not, never has been, and never will be a legitimate MVP candidate now that he's in decline and age 30. He does not get on base, and there are plenty of center fielders who provide more value than he does like Trout, Judge, and Rodriguez in the AL alone. You still pushing the idea Buxton is an MVP caliber player is exactly what I'm talking about when I say how overrated Buxton has been. In a full year, Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player. That's great, perennial All Star caliber. It's not an MVP caliber player, not by a long shot. It's 60-70% of where he needs to be. When there was a .900-1.100 OPS center fielder like Mike Trout, .800 OPS doesn't get it done. Then there was a two way wonder, Ohtani. Donaldson and Altuve snuck in there for a couple years, but even they were much better than a full year Buxton would be.

AL MVP Winner bWAR vs. Buxton vs. Buxton 150 G and percentage of WAR vs. MVP in 150 G (that he'll never ever play)
2015 = 7.1 vs. 0.4 vs. 3.3, 46%
2016 = 10.5 vs. 1.7 vs. 2.7, 26%
2017 = 7.7 vs. 4.9 vs. 5.0, 65%
2018 = 9.9 vs. (0.3) vs. (1.6), 0%
2019 = 7.9 vs. 3.0 vs. 5.2, 66%
2020 = 3.0 vs. 2.1 vs. N/A, 70%
2021 = 8.9 vs. 4.6 vs. 11.3, 127%
2022 = 10.5 vs. 3.9 vs. 6.4, 61%
2023 = 9.9 vs. 0.8 vs. 1.4, 14%

2021 was a complete aberration for Buxton in what was, yet again, a SSS for a very streaky hitter. It was never sustainable, and apart from that year, Buxton was never even close to MVP numbers even if projected to 150 games when he will never play that much.
 

[mikelink45]

What is the correct answer:

1. Overhyped?
2. What if?
3. What now?
4. Will he ever be what we expected?

He is the ultimate conundrum and it is sad. 

[Riverbrian]

On 4/29/2024 at 11:06 PM, Ted Schwerzler said:

It’s great to see Buxton back in full capacity

Timing is everything. 

[roger]

Not a good day to write this, Ted.

[D.C Twins]

Well.... time to get Martin back up for some extended playing time. 

Only potential positive outcome with Buck that I can think of is that he broke up some scar tissue... that can be sudden and painful but not a long recovery. 

DH is NOT an option though for all the reasons pointed out in this article 

[Patzky]

What have you done? 😭

[RpR]

Buxton not in center field is a large hole in the defense, far bigger loss than his bat.

Twins have no Taylor to fill the gap.  Margot seems to have lost what made him an above average fielder and neither Martin or Castro are more than average on their best days.

[jkcarew]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Last 10 games .324/.395/.529 OPS .924 wRC+ 167. 5.3% BB, 26.3% K.

Buxton is coming around and I expect he'll produce at the wRC+ 120ish level on the season,

Better start hitting HR’s if he’s going to get anywhere near 120. His wRC+ has always been extremely reliant on high HR%. He’s had streaks, but he’s never been able to maintain BA/OBP…to inconsistent and too K prone. It’s all about the SLG for him.

And his career wRC+ is 105

[jkcarew]

The primary reason it’s not worth the process is the time he misses…which is easily greater than the time he plays.

It prevents the club…or provides an excuse/reason…to not invest in a legitimate major-league center fielder. So instead, MORE than half the club’s games…every year…are played by the likes of Jake Cave and Castro, an out-of-position Kepler or a retread hopeful.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

What is the correct answer:

1. Overhyped?
2. What if?
3. What now?
4. Will he ever be what we expected?

He is the ultimate conundrum and it is sad. 

This is exactly the problem with Buxton.  He has shown us flashes (even extended flashes) of what could be, but has never been able to be either consistent enough or on the field enough to convert those into the MVP caliber player that those flashes hint at.  And now. . . he is hurt again.  My hope is that they will immediately take him out of the lineup and put him on the IL so he can heal completely before he comes back.  Half as many games from healthy Buxton will be better than lots of games of unhealthy Buxton. 

I do also agree that he is a tremendous centerfielder when he is healthy, but the gap is probably less than it has been in the past as he ages, making that part of his performance less of a difference maker as well.  I worry less about his replacements in centerfield than I do about the issues he's having with his bat.

Just think, and some of us thought that Tony Oliva was a big injury problem!

[jkcarew]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

As long as he's healthy, we will be ultimately be pleased with the results.

If by pleased you mean a league average-ish hitter with good center field defense…yes. He’s currently below league average despite favorable batted ball luck.

Still, I WOULD be pleased with that. But it’s completely theoretical. It’s never happened…he’s had one season where he was healthy enough to play anything more than half a season in center, and that year he was solidly below average offensively.

 

[jkcarew]

6 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Overhyped?  Not sure where that is coming from... When healthy, he has been very productive.  Streaky, but very productive.

Even a Buck playing 120 games in the OF with average offensive production is worth what he brings.

So one year then. He played more than 92 games in CF exactly once. Although he wasn’t quite an average hitter that year.

His 105 career wRC+ speaks for itself. The bat has always been overhyped. Here’s the narrative: “every good week/month/2-month stretch he’s had is because he’s healthy…and every bad week/month/2-month stretch he’s has is because he’s hurt”. That narrative is almost a perfect example of how a player gets overhyped.

No arguing the defense. I just wish he could complete a full-ish season.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

13 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Here’s the narrative: “every good week/month/2-month stretch he’s had is because he’s healthy…and every bad week/month/2-month stretch he’s has is because he’s hurt”. That narrative is almost a perfect example of how a player gets overhyped.

No arguing the defense. I just wish he could complete a full-ish season.

The "narrative" you are talking about just also happens to be the the truth.  When healthy, he can be among the best in the game.  The issue is he can't stay healthy, and when he tries to play at substantially less than 100%, he is pretty much brutal at the plate.

You can really go down a rabbit hole discussing the semantics of the word overhyped.  I just don't think that fits here.  When I hear overhyped, I think of guys that have had all the publicity and never backed it up. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

The primary reason it’s not worth the process is the time he misses…which is easily greater than the time he plays.

It prevents the club…or provides an excuse/reason…to not invest in a legitimate major-league center fielder. So instead, MORE than half the club’s games…every year…are played by the likes of Jake Cave and Castro, an out-of-position Kepler or a retread hopeful.

Castro has a great arm - he’s got good speed - he’s fairly durable - and after today’s game his BA is at .273 for the season. He’s as good as they come for a depth guy. 295 innings in LF & 265 innings in CF in ‘23.

Correa is back (no need for Castro in infield) - Miranda is hitting and will play 3B a bunch now.

Farmer will get some off days now v. RH pitching.

Should be OK……..Kirilloff in LF - Castro in CF - Kepler in RF with Larnach at DH v. Right Handed pitching.

Byron’s out 3-8 weeks after what it looked like this afternoon.

Martin back up Friday I guess.

[LambchoP]

And Mr. Glass only lasted a month after being "healthiest he's ever been lol. Shame....

[stringer bell]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Castro has a great arm - he’s got good speed - he’s fairly durable - and after today’s game his BA is at .273 for the season. He’s as good as they come for a depth guy. 295 innings in LF & 265 innings in CF in ‘23.

Correa is back (no need for Castro in infield) - Miranda is hitting and will play 3B a bunch now.

Farmer will get some off days now v. RH pitching.

Should be OK……..Kirilloff in LF - Castro in CF - Kepler in RF with Larnach at DH v. Right Handed pitching.

Byron’s out 3-8 weeks after what it looked like this afternoon.

Martin back up Friday I guess.

The thing that made Willi so valuable last year was that he could play almost anywhere, but wasn't assigned to any one role. I hope he isn't the six-day-a-week center fielder, but rather starts games at third, in left and in center with some of the other players also moving around. It also probably wouldn't hurt to give Correa a bit more rest than he would like, with Castro playing short on those days. 

[dxpavelka]

I'd like to point out that in the year of our Lord 2024 a .242 batting average is no longer considered below average.