Byron Buxton Needs to Catch Up to the Fastball

Hitting fastballs is a primary ingredient to success for most hitters, and that's certainly true for Byron Buxton. When he's going good, Buxton is reactively turning on heaters with his lightning-quick wrists and bashing those things to all fields with authority. 

Last year, despite mediocre production overall, he still posted a .363 wOBA against fastballs, notching 26 of his 35 extra-base hits against them. In 2022, Buxton's wOBA against fastballs was .373, and in 2021 – when at his absolute best – it was a ridiculous .464. An article on FanGraphs a couple of years ago dubbed him "Byron Buxton, Destroyer of Fastballs."

Early in the 2024 season, Buxton has not lived up this reputation. Instead, it is the fastballs that are destroying him, leading to some very ugly at-bats and poor results. Through 14 games, the 30-year-old is batting .182 with zero extra-base hits against fastballs, good for a .223 wOBA. His most recent at-bats seem perfectly emblematic of the problems that are presenting in Buxton's plate appearances, while also making clear that opposing pitchers are aware, and taking full advantage.

His most recent start came in the nightcap of Saturday's doubleheader at Detroit. In his first at-bat against Matt Manning, Buxton saw two pitches, both fastballs in the zone. He fouled away the first, and hit a sac fly on the second. In the next at-bat, Manning once again came after Buxton with two fastballs in the zone. The outfielder whiffed on the first, fouled away the second, and just like that, he was down 0-2, setting up Manning to unleash sweepers and induce weak contact on a ground-out to third.

In his third AB of the game, facing Manning again, a similar script played out. Buxton fell behind 0-2, fouling away three straight fastballs in the zone, at which point the pitcher froze him by dropping a curveball right over the plate for a called strike three. The inability of Buck to connect solidly with any of these four-seamers, which were barely reaching the mid-90s, is noticeable. It's not just high velocity that's beating him; it's any velocity.

In his fourth and final at-bat of the game, Buxton faced lefthander Joey Wentz – a seemingly favorable match-up suited to help him break free from his growing slump. Wentz followed the same plan as Manning did in each of the previous three at-bats, starting Buxton with two straight fastballs in the zone--although the second was called a ball. The following curveball at the knees was also called a ball, giving Buxton an advantageous 2-1 count, with two runners on and nobody out; a chance to break the game open. Wentz turned back to the fastball, throwing it on the inner part of the plate at the belt. Buxton swung and flied out meekly to center. 

By the conclusion of the game, through 50 plate appearances on the season, Buxton held a .196/.240/.261 slash line with 18 strikeouts and one walk. He has yet to homer, and hasn't notched an extra-base hit since doubling three times in the first five games.

Obviously, Buxton has not been effective offensively. When you watch his at-bats and look closely at the numbers, it isn't too tough to see why. Given what happened last year, when he staggered and slumped into oblivion over the summer before being shut down in August, it's tempting to wonder whether underlying injury issues are at play. But Buxton has looked good and been very valuable both defensively and on the basepaths.

If we assume this fastball futility is not driven by a specific health concern, there are a couple of different ways to view the matter. One is more pessimistic and the other more optimistic.

The pessimistic view: some of the physical gifts that made Buxton a special hitter are eroding. Maybe his wrists just aren't as quick as they used to be, or he's struggling to engage his legs as rapidly as he once did. At 30, he's theoretically moving into the tail end of his athletic prime, and all of the injuries he's dealt with over the years could be evincing their cumulative toll.

It's possible. I don't want to dismiss that scenario. But it does strike me as a potential overreaction to a short period's worth of struggles from a historically slump-prone player – and also a little implausible, when you consider how well he's handling other aspects of the game.

What seems likelier to me is the more hopeful scenario: Buxton simply needs to catch up. He didn't appear after Aug. 1 last year, and played somewhat sparingly in the spring as Rocco Baldelli managed his reps. The Twins, as a team, have faced a disruptive schedule thus far, with off days and rainouts; Buxton has received a couple extra days off, further impeding his ability to see pitches and find a rhythm. (Although, notably, he has appeared at least as a sub in every game.)

For major-league hitters, finding themselves routinely behind on fastballs in the early weeks of the season is not uncommon. It's one reason pitchers are considered to be at an advantage in April. Given Buxton's circumstances, it is perfectly understandable why he might be especially susceptible to this effect. 

Eventually, he will catch up. And as we've seen many times in the past with Buxton, when it starts to click for him things can get serious in a hurry. The Twins could sure use that burst from their best remaining player at this moment. The team's outlook and upside this year hinge so much on the core trio of Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. For the time being, Buxton is left to carry that load individually. As a genuine MVP-caliber talent, he's capable. 

As long as he can stay on the field, it's only a matter of time before Buxton closes this gap, like he has so many others.