Byron Buxton Needs to Catch Up to the Fastball

[Nick Nelson]

With the two other members of Minnesota's core trio sidelined by injuries, pressure is mounting for Byron Buxton to step up and power the lineup. So far, he's been falling short, and it's not very hard to see why.

Ironically, one of the game's fastest players is struggling to adjust to speed.

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Hitting fastballs is a primary ingredient to success for most hitters, and that's certainly true for Byron Buxton. When he's going good, Buxton is reactively turning on heaters with his lightning-quick wrists and bashing those things to all fields with authority. 

Last year, despite mediocre production overall, he still posted a .363 wOBA against fastballs, notching 26 of his 35 extra-base hits against them. In 2022, Buxton's wOBA against fastballs was .373, and in 2021 – when at his absolute best – it was a ridiculous .464. An article on FanGraphs a couple of years ago dubbed him "Byron Buxton, Destroyer of Fastballs."

Early in the 2024 season, Buxton has not lived up this reputation. Instead, it is the fastballs that are destroying him, leading to some very ugly at-bats and poor results. Through 14 games, the 30-year-old is batting .182 with zero extra-base hits against fastballs, good for a .223 wOBA. His most recent at-bats seem perfectly emblematic of the problems that are presenting in Buxton's plate appearances, while also making clear that opposing pitchers are aware, and taking full advantage.

His most recent start came in the nightcap of Saturday's doubleheader at Detroit. In his first at-bat against Matt Manning, Buxton saw two pitches, both fastballs in the zone. He fouled away the first, and hit a sac fly on the second. In the next at-bat, Manning once again came after Buxton with two fastballs in the zone. The outfielder whiffed on the first, fouled away the second, and just like that, he was down 0-2, setting up Manning to unleash sweepers and induce weak contact on a ground-out to third.

In his third AB of the game, facing Manning again, a similar script played out. Buxton fell behind 0-2, fouling away three straight fastballs in the zone, at which point the pitcher froze him by dropping a curveball right over the plate for a called strike three. The inability of Buck to connect solidly with any of these four-seamers, which were barely reaching the mid-90s, is noticeable. It's not just high velocity that's beating him; it's any velocity.

In his fourth and final at-bat of the game, Buxton faced lefthander Joey Wentz – a seemingly favorable match-up suited to help him break free from his growing slump. Wentz followed the same plan as Manning did in each of the previous three at-bats, starting Buxton with two straight fastballs in the zone--although the second was called a ball. The following curveball at the knees was also called a ball, giving Buxton an advantageous 2-1 count, with two runners on and nobody out; a chance to break the game open. Wentz turned back to the fastball, throwing it on the inner part of the plate at the belt. Buxton swung and flied out meekly to center. 

By the conclusion of the game, through 50 plate appearances on the season, Buxton held a .196/.240/.261 slash line with 18 strikeouts and one walk. He has yet to homer, and hasn't notched an extra-base hit since doubling three times in the first five games.

Obviously, Buxton has not been effective offensively. When you watch his at-bats and look closely at the numbers, it isn't too tough to see why. Given what happened last year, when he staggered and slumped into oblivion over the summer before being shut down in August, it's tempting to wonder whether underlying injury issues are at play. But Buxton has looked good and been very valuable both defensively and on the basepaths.

If we assume this fastball futility is not driven by a specific health concern, there are a couple of different ways to view the matter. One is more pessimistic and the other more optimistic.

The pessimistic view: some of the physical gifts that made Buxton a special hitter are eroding. Maybe his wrists just aren't as quick as they used to be, or he's struggling to engage his legs as rapidly as he once did. At 30, he's theoretically moving into the tail end of his athletic prime, and all of the injuries he's dealt with over the years could be evincing their cumulative toll.

It's possible. I don't want to dismiss that scenario. But it does strike me as a potential overreaction to a short period's worth of struggles from a historically slump-prone player – and also a little implausible, when you consider how well he's handling other aspects of the game.

What seems likelier to me is the more hopeful scenario: Buxton simply needs to catch up. He didn't appear after Aug. 1 last year, and played somewhat sparingly in the spring as Rocco Baldelli managed his reps. The Twins, as a team, have faced a disruptive schedule thus far, with off days and rainouts; Buxton has received a couple extra days off, further impeding his ability to see pitches and find a rhythm. (Although, notably, he has appeared at least as a sub in every game.)

For major-league hitters, finding themselves routinely behind on fastballs in the early weeks of the season is not uncommon. It's one reason pitchers are considered to be at an advantage in April. Given Buxton's circumstances, it is perfectly understandable why he might be especially susceptible to this effect. 

Eventually, he will catch up. And as we've seen many times in the past with Buxton, when it starts to click for him things can get serious in a hurry. The Twins could sure use that burst from their best remaining player at this moment. The team's outlook and upside this year hinge so much on the core trio of Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. For the time being, Buxton is left to carry that load individually. As a genuine MVP-caliber talent, he's capable. 

As long as he can stay on the field, it's only a matter of time before Buxton closes this gap, like he has so many others.

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[Karbo]

Buck just needs more AB's IMO. Granted, they're worried about all his injury issues, but are they doing him any favors by not starting him more? I really wonder. He didn't get much playing time in ST either. I don't have the answer but that's just my guess. He needs to get more AB's.

[Gamblerssoftball]

The thing is, it's not just Byron. Up and down the lineup, the guys are struggling to hit with much consistency and authority. Is the pitching that much more advanced early in the year? Sometimes it looks like they are guessing as what the pitch is going to be, and then just watching it sail past, often for a strike. 

It's not just the Twins, because batting averages are quite bad for a lot of teams. Maybe it will just take time. Meanwhile, it's difficult to watch!

[laloesch]

The season is already lost.  This team is not a division winner at this point and they don't look it AT ALL.  Look at the bright side, high draft pick.

[Patzky]

29 minutes ago, laloesch said:

The season is already lost.  This team is not a division winner at this point and they don't look it AT ALL.  Look at the bright side, high draft pick.

It'll never be higher than last year's.

[GKuehl]

So many lazy flyballs from Buxton and this team (especially Carlos Santana). 

[Guest]

Glad to read that he is at least swinging the bat on fastballs and not just watching them. Keep on swinging!

[bean5302]

Catching up to the fastball isn't Buxton's only problem. He's been hyper aggressive as well, swinging at 38% of pitches outside the zone and taking 1 measly walk in 50 plate appearances. He's not going to get the best pitches to hit if he keeps swinging at junk.

I've never been a fan of Buxton's as a premier player. He's a great full season 5-6 WAR player (which he never makes it a full season), but there have always been major holes in his game. His power heavy approach limits his potential value on the basepaths and his batted ball profile along with his poor walk rates really limits his overall value at the plate.

High power, low BB profiles will always be very streaky, like @Bigfork Twins Guy alludes to. It's only 50 PA (83 including Spring Training), but if you include Spring Training, it's clear Buxton was seeing the ball well enough against more limited competition. Buxton's been around long enough to believe he'll come out of the slump soon enough.

Wallner is the one I think needs to go to AAA. I'm a huge fan and I believe Wallner's game will play well at MLB, but he's clearly lost every bit of confidence he had, and I think he's let a few bad calls by the umps get into his head. He needs a reset, and a lesson. Keep your head in the game or somebody else will be happy to take your spot.

[mikelink45]

Good article, but increased fan frustration.  We have always loved Buxton's speed and potential, but ten years and 20.8 WAR - 2 per year and so far this year it is negative. 238/298/464 career slash line is not a superstar.  

Frustration is not about injuries, but 553 appearances in CF over ten years (55 per year) means his bat has to give more value.  

I hope it does, but I do not expect star level play -- I would just like a good major leaguer. 

[bighat]

I think we saw Peak Buxton in 2022 before the All-Star break. He made the All-Star team, homered in that AS game and was really about as good as he'd ever be for that half-season. 

Alas, all the injuries he's suffered have surpassed his natural ability to play at a high level. And perhaps more importantly, the mental anguish he's dealt with over his MLB career has also taken it's toll. 

I say this as a huge Byron Buxton fan: At this point Bux is probably in the bottom tier of outfielders in the AL, and it's hard to find more than 10 teams in baseball where he'd be able to make the starting OF. 

We should probably realistically start considering what the Minnesota outfield looks like without Buxton. The sooner the organization can move on from him, the better. 

I hope he has a resurgent May/June and the last place Twins can find a trade partner at the deadline. 

[Nick Nelson]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Catching up to the fastball isn't Buxton's only problem. He's been hyper aggressive as well, swinging at 38% of pitches outside the zone and taking 1 measly walk in 50 plate appearances. He's not going to get the best pitches to hit if he keeps swinging at junk.

I've never been a fan of Buxton's as a premier player. He's a great full season 5-6 WAR player (which he never makes it a full season), but there have always been major holes in his game. His power heavy approach limits his potential value on the basepaths and his batted ball profile along with his poor walk rates really limits his overall value at the plate..

Good post but IMO the chasing and lack of discipline all tie back to the fastball problems. He's falling behind in the count because he can't hit fastballs in the zone, and then he's getting junk outside the zone when he has to protect. It's a pattern that played out in literally every single AB on Saturday.

I would say his batted ball profile was pretty great prior to last year. 

[Danchat]

I would be less concerned if it was just the 50 PAs so far this year and not how his 2023 season was a far cry from his 2019-22 self. The more I watch the more I think this is who Buxton is now. Spurts of HRs will come, but even then we don't need another Gallo on this roster... who doesn't draw walks.

Not to mention this is the healthiest he's going to be this year (unless he just so happens to be playing through an injury). 

[D.C Twins]

I think he'll warm up.

I do think that one way hitters like him can have their timing and reactions on point for fastballs in April is to actually take Spring training a bit more seriously. 

The pendulum has swung too far in the direction of minimizing in game reps in Spring training. 

And being ready in April would only help player boost their stats and therefore future contracts. 

Current attitude towards Spring training does not make sense for player or clubs. 

[nicksaviking]

Ouch. I'm not even sure a 93 MPH pitch is even considered a fastball anymore.

C'mon Buck, time to step it up.

Silver lining, since everyone now knows everyone's weaknesses these days, if he does figure it out, there'll probably be a point where guys continue to throw him these juicy, hittable pitches over the plate before they re-adjust to coming at him with nasty breaking pitches.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I think he'll warm up.

I do think that one way hitters like him can have their timing and reactions on point for fastballs in April is to actually take Spring training a bit more seriously. 

The pendulum has swung too far in the direction of minimizing in game reps in Spring training. 

And being ready in April would only help player boost their stats and therefore future contracts. 

Current attitude towards Spring training does not make sense for player or clubs. 

He's smacking the ball around tonight off the Orioles' worst starter. That's something though..

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Danchat said:

I would be less concerned if it was just the 50 PAs so far this year and not how his 2023 season was a far cry from his 2019-22 self. The more I watch the more I think this is who Buxton is now. Spurts of HRs will come, but even then we don't need another Gallo on this roster... who doesn't draw walks.

Not to mention this is the healthiest he's going to be this year (unless he just so happens to be playing through an injury). 

With Buxton being a streaky hitter and SSS issues from being injured, he's going to put up some big numbers some seasons. I think his line from 2019-2024 current is probably a pretty good picture of who Buxton is at the plate.
1463 PA, 7.1% BB, 28.0% K, .244/.308/.520 OPS .828 wRC+ 123. Still a very valuable player.

When he's not putting up MVP caliber numbers, I think people assume it's because he's hurt or he's slumping or whatever. He's just not an MVP caliber hitter because he doesn't get on base. He's 30 years old, starting his decline, and in his 10th MLB season. 

In any case, Buxton's full NTC expires at the end of 2026. It may be interesting to see what happens at that point.

[Bodie]

Byron Buxton- the Twins' Ferrari. 

Oh, so very sexy when everything thing is tuned perfectly.  An utter pain in our collective arse when not. 

But even when not optimally tuned, we still know he is a Ferrari and dream of that V8 purring along at 7000 rpm, sexy as a Magnum PI repeat...

[Whitey333]

Buxton is one of the most over-hyped and over rated players the Twins have ever had.  Yes he shows flashes of brilliance fir a week or two at a time.  That does not make him an MVP candidate.  I feel bad for him because of all the injuries he has endured.  But whether because of the injuries or at least part therein he is just another average player.  Nothing more ir nothing less

[ewen21]

On 4/15/2024 at 9:32 AM, laloesch said:

The season is already lost.  This team is not a division winner at this point and they don't look it AT ALL.  Look at the bright side, high draft pick.

You said what a lot of people don’t want to hear, but this offense is brutal.  I saw someone say it’s early and there are a lot of low batting averages around the league.  All I have to say in response is that this team is at the bottom for team batting as of today.  Dead last.  I don’t see many guys with track records to make me feel optimistic either.

Good analysis here by Nick, but we’ve seen this show before.  This is a guy with a lifetime battling average under .240 and a lifetime OBP of .300.  He doesn’t save nearly enough runs with his glove with an offensive history like that.  This is a guy openly admits he doesn’t like batting practice.  That would be like an accountant saying he doesn’t like math.  With Buxton, I think he has a questionable work ethic when it comes to the offensive part of the game.  It’s like he’s learned nothing over the last five or six years.

 

Maybe that’s harsh, but then maybe he needs to start learning how to deal with negative feedback and commit to improving an obvious weakness

 

[Florida Flash]

IMO the organization has put HUGE pressure on Buxton. Hype hype hype. "Come out, buy your tickets  and watch Byron hit 7 homeruns per game."  More hype every year it's Buxton Buxton Buxton.  $200 million dollar contract is actually more pressure to perform. Try backing off on the guy. Now they have him hitting cleanup and he is awful there. ie More pressure to perform. Some people relish high pressure situations, others (like me) do not like it because of the massive expectations. I think Buxton has great talent but the organization has ruined him. I see him traded for virtually nothing in a couple of years, and wont be surprised if he excels there away from the Minnesota hype hype hype.

 

[Florida Flash]

On 4/15/2024 at 2:03 PM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Maybe he can hold out until Walker Jenkins is ready.

As has been stated before, Buck has a no trade clause so the deadline trade option is not available.

With the big contract, like Kepler's, I dont think anyone will be on the phone trying to trade for either one of them or even take them off the Twins hands, without the Twins kicking in a lot of cash for their salaries for absolutely nothing in return.