The Twins Need Correa and Vázquez to Live Up to Their Salaries (So Far, So Good)

[Nick Nelson]

Minnesota's two biggest free agent signings from the 2022-23 offseason both fell flat in the first season of their new deals. Last year's team won the division in spite of Carlos Correa and Christian Vázquez. This year's team needs to succeed – at least in part – because of them.

The duo's early-season results, and Wednesday's game specifically, serve as very encouraging indicators on this front.

Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

It may pale in comparison to Carlos Correa's precedent-shattering $200 million deal signed later in the same winter, but at the time, Christian Vázquez's $30 million free agent contract from Minnesota ranked as one of the biggest ever for this front office. Those two signings contributed to a record-setting 2023 payroll, which has been scaled back significantly here in 2024. 

With the Twins slashing payroll by $35 million, they lost a ton of flexibility to add and supplement around their highest and fourth-highest paid players, meaning they'll need both to carry a whole lot more weight now than in Year One of their new deals.

Hampered for most of the season by a foot injury, Correa put forth his worst campaign as a big-leaguer, posting below-average production that was totally out of line with his career norms. Vázquez's offensive struggles were a little less shocking, as a catcher who's rarely been a great hitter, but his 65 OPS+ was terrible by any standard. The two combined to produce just 2.8 fWAR, and were valued by FanGraphs at around $23 million – well below what they were paid.

Of course, it's fairly clear that the Twins invested in these two accomplished veterans for more than just on-field production. Both players bring a level of experience, leadership and savvy that add to their value in the eyes of a club building around homegrown young talent.

Correa already has a legendary postseason track record: a World Series champ and the active MLB leader in playoff RBIs. Vázquez has been part of two championship teams – Boston in 2018 and Houston in 2022 – under the bright spotlights of big-market settings. These two bring plenty to the clubhouse, which is why they were still valuable last year even as their performances bottomed out. 

This year, the spending reduction means that Correa and Vázquez alone account for nearly 40% of the Twins' payroll, so the team is relying on each for more than a steady presence and good vibes. They need these two to deliver on the field, and so far we're seeing good signs.

Wednesday's sweep-averting victory over the Dodgers was a brilliant showcase of what these two defensive stalwarts can do, especially in tandem. In the sixth inning, with LA looking to move the tying run into scoring position on a steal, Vázquez threw a pea down to second, with Correa applying one of his signature seamless tags to retire James Outman on a play where he seemed to have the pitcher beat.

Two innings later, with the Twins still protecting a one-run lead, the roles were reversed with Vázquez on the receiving end of a spectacular throw-and-tag. Freddie Freeman drilled a ball into the right field corner, and it rattled around while Shohei Ohtani charged around the bases. As the play developed, it became clear that nothing short of a perfect relay would even give the Twins a chance to stopping Ohtani from tying the game.

A perfect relay is what they got. Correa wheeled around from shortstop to the right field line (a designed play), received a strong throw from Alex Kirilloff, and threw a laser beam to Vázquez in the exact right spot. Credit goes to the catcher for rapidly turning around and getting his mitt in front of home plate to tag Ohtani in the nick of time. 

 

Two phenomenal plays from two big-time players. The Twins will be looking for a whole lot more of that as the season progresses. Correa obviously has the much bigger role as everyday shortstop and lineup cornerstone, but Vázquez is going to get plenty of playing time himself in a timeshare with Ryan Jeffers.

Through the first couple of weeks, Correa has been stellar across the board, with his bat looking much more on par with his peak form. Running as fast as he has in several years, there are no signs Correa's heel is still an issue. He has a ridiculous 170 OPS+ in 10 games.

Vázquez, who set out on a mission to rejuvenate his bat during the offseason, has seemingly seen no returns in the early going. The catcher has managed just two singles and a walk in 17 plate appearances. But believe me when I say the process does NOT match the results. Vázquez has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball thus far, with an actual batting average (.133) that's about 150 points short of his xBA (.281). His expected slugging percentage is .527. The 33-year-old has been smoking the ball, just as he did in the spring, and if he keeps it up it's going to start paying off. A glance at his (still materializing) Statcast sliders tell the story of a player who's excelling in a lot of areas.

Improvement from Vázquez will help offset any regression from Jeffers, who's struggled so far, and if Jeffers comes around the catcher position could become a massive source of advantage for the Twins. Shortstop already looks to be solidified as one.

When they're playing like this, Correa and Vázquez are well worth the money, even under a crunched budget. Here's hoping the veterans can keep it rolling.

View full article

[gunnarthor]

I don't see how you can write stuff about Vazquez earning his salary with a straight face. Really makes TD look like a shrill for the FO and not, you know, based in reality. 

[TwinsDr2021]

17 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't see how you can write stuff about Vazquez earning his salary with a straight face. Really makes TD look like a shrill for the FO and not, you know, based in reality. 

100% agree with this take he has been a black hole in the lineup since day 1. He is the 7th highest paid catcher in baseball and IMO his defensive doesn't make up for how horrendous he has been offensively. (Just to be transparent I was against the signing from the get go)

[Nick Nelson]

26 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't see how you can write stuff about Vazquez earning his salary with a straight face. Really makes TD look like a shrill for the FO and not, you know, based in reality. 

I'm sorry, was this a "Twins Daily" byline or a "Nick Nelson" byline? I put my name on it so you can just address me directly with your lil potshots my friend. There are plenty of negatively-focused Vazquez pieces to be found on TD.

Personally, I've been consistent since the end of last year that I believe Vazquez is an underrated roster piece, and I think the idea that he's off to a strong start is well substantiated by the reality-based info I laid out here. Would you like to debate those points on merit or just make silly statements about being TD being shills* for the FO, which I assure you most members of said FO would find very amusing.

[Nick Nelson]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

100% agree with this take he has been a black hole in the lineup since day 1. He is the 7th highest paid catcher in baseball and IMO his defensive doesn't make up for how horrendous he has been offensively. (Just to be transparent I was against the signing from the get go)

He hasn't been bad offensively this year and if you think he has you're looking at the wrong numbers in a small sample. Vazquez has the 4th-best xwOBA on the team behind Lewis, Correa and Kirilloff.

[stringer bell]

It is still incredibly early. There has been promise in Vázquez' plate appearances, but the results have been minimal. His throwing has been outstanding, but again, small sample size. The Twins have gotten the calls and great tags to turn those plays into outs. 

Correa has looked very good, in all facets of the game. At 29, this should be a peak season for him. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

He hasn't been bad offensively this year and if you think he has you're looking at the wrong numbers in a small sample. Vazquez has the 4th-best xwOBA on the team behind Lewis, Correa and Kirilloff.

You are correct he hasn't been bad, he has been worse than bad (and yes it is SSS) and having Kepler, Farmer, Castro and Santana also being bad doesn't justify him.

He is 2 for 15, with 1 BB and a OPS .310 (OBP .176 and SLG of .133), xwOBA is a made up stat on what is expected and not what is actually happening in the games. IMO it can be used to project how things hopefully will go forward but in NO way should be used to replace what has actually has happened on the field.

[Major League Ready]

25 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

He hasn't been bad offensively this year and if you think he has you're looking at the wrong numbers in a small sample. Vazquez has the 4th-best xwOBA on the team behind Lewis, Correa and Kirilloff.

Defense is more important than offense from a catcher but offence does matter.  He is 11th on the team in wRC+ with -11 and 11th in OPS at a paltry .310.  That's bad.  He rates 48th out of 53 Catchers with 17 ABs or more.  The sample size is so small as to be relatively irrelevant, but he has been bad.

[Patzky]

18 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I'm sorry, was this a "Twins Daily" byline or a "Nick Nelson" byline? I put my name on it so you can just address me directly with your lil potshots my friend. There are plenty of negatively-focused Vazquez pieces to be found on TD.

Personally, I've been consistent since the end of last year that I believe Vazquez is an underrated roster piece, and I think the idea that he's off to a strong start is well substantiated by the reality-based info I laid out here. Would you like to debate those points on merit or just make silly statements about being TD being shills* for the FO, which I assure you most members of said FO would find very amusing.

He's had horrible luck hitting with multiple line drive atom balls. 

[Doctor Gast]

Great job Nick! Teams who are serious know defense up the middle is essential for winning, any offense is icing on the cake. The Correa/ Vazquez duo has saved us a lot of runs. The strikeouts are piling up & HRs are hard to come by we need their defense to compete. With the experience they pass on they are well worth the money spent. Where would we be w/o them. for one we'd have been swept by LAD.

Very interesting that that Correa relay was planned which makes all the sense in the world because of Correa's arm. It'd was incredible if there was any bobble, any off throw, decrease in velo or hesitation in what to do, Ohtani would have been safe. It was more than perfect. That experience of Correa / Vazquez is invaluable. 

[2wins87]

The amount of love that Vazquez gets from fans is truly baffling to me.  He has been really good defensively this year, true (and quite good last year too), but he's given back pretty much all of that value on offense.

I'm more used to fans overlooking defensive value than offensive value.  Kepler is a primary example in my mind. How many calls were there for him to be DFA'ed over the last few years?  Not just benched or traded for minimal value, a lot of people thought he actually had negative value over several years and the team would have been better off giving him away for nothing 3 years ago.  Even when he was a bit below average offensively, he was still a low-end starter due to his defensive value.

I don't dislike Vazquez really.  I think he probably ends up hitting a little better than last year overall, and if he provides equal or better defensive value to last year, he'll probably be worth around his $10 million salary.  At his worst, he's probably a low end starter just like Kepler.

I still find myself reflexively groaning every time he comes up in an RBI spot though.

[Jocko87]

They are both players will high values not reflected on their baseball reference pages. If Vasquez hits anywhere near his career averages his salary is covered. A 2 WAR season is not out of the equation and would be a tremendous result.

[2wins87]

30 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

He hasn't been bad offensively this year and if you think he has you're looking at the wrong numbers in a small sample. Vazquez has the 4th-best xwOBA on the team behind Lewis, Correa and Kirilloff.

I don't think it's a large enough sample for xwOBA to be much more meaningful than wOBA.  I watched him be a black hole in the lineup for an entire season.

I think it's unlikely he'll be as bad as last year, but it's still too early to base my opinion on much other than what I saw last year.

[Riverbrian]

Vazquez will play 50% of the time. Catchers are pricey. 

Correa on the other hand. 

He absolutely needs to live up to at least a significant portion of his salary. 

 

[Brandon]

22 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You are correct he hasn't been bad, he has been worse than bad (and yes it is SSS) and having Kepler, Farmer, Castro and Santana also being bad doesn't justify him.

He is 2 for 15, with 1 BB and a OPS .310 (OBP .176 and SLG of .133), xwOBA is a made up stat on what is expected and not what is actually happening in the games. IMO it can be used to project how things hopefully will go forward but in NO way should be used to replace what has actually has happened on the field.

I think that what Nick is saying in using the xwOBA stat is that it shows the odds of improvement moving forward a very high if he continues to hit the way he has thus far.  more of his line drives will find holes and we will have better results.  statistically this is accurate thus a good point.

[CRF]

CC is worth every penny. I'd sign him again in a heart beat. Not so sure about Vazquez. Defense is fine, but disappointing at the plate. 

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I think that what Nick is saying in using the xwOBA stat is that it shows the odds of improvement moving forward a very high if he continues to hit the way he has thus far.  more of his line drives will find holes and we will have better results.  statistically this is accurate thus a good point.

Well he typed "He hasn't been bad offensively " and this "Vazquez has the 4th-best xwOBA on the team behind Lewis, Correa and Kirilloff. "

Not sure how to interpret it as the odds are improvement going forward? (That is how I use xwOBA but that isn't at all what he typed)

I find it funny that that people like  @RpR thumbs down facts, without an actual response as to why.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

He hasn't been bad offensively this year and if you think he has you're looking at the wrong numbers in a small sample. Vazquez has the 4th-best xwOBA on the team behind Lewis, Correa and Kirilloff.

Oh, gee, well if his xwOBA is good, there's no debate to be had here....case closed!

My take:  an OPS around .300 is bad.  

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You are correct he hasn't been bad, he has been worse than bad (and yes it is SSS) and having Kepler, Farmer, Castro and Santana also being bad doesn't justify him.

He is 2 for 15, with 1 BB and a OPS .310 (OBP .176 and SLG of .133), xwOBA is a made up stat on what is expected and not what is actually happening in the games. IMO it can be used to project how things hopefully will go forward but in NO way should be used to replace what has actually has happened on the field.

Not understanding something doesn't make it "made up".

Here's what is happening on the field, Vazquez is:

7th among all catchers in line drive rate by BIS (4th per MLB %)

In the 64th percentile in all MLB for average exit velocity (tied with Julio Rodriguez and Brent Rooker)

97th percentile in all MLB for barrel rate (barrels have resulted in a .708/.697/2.350 slash line in 2024)

In the bottom 10th percentile of MLB in BABIP with a .154 - even last year's objectively awful contact produced a .264 BABIP

 

What has been taught in baseball for over a century? Hit hard line drives. It's really that simple, none of this is new or contrary to old school baseball thought - it's just putting numbers to the old teaching. He's hitting the ball hard, it's just going right at the fielders right now. Hard to fault a guy for that. 

[Nick Nelson]

54 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Well he typed "He hasn't been bad offensively " and this "Vazquez has the 4th-best xwOBA on the team behind Lewis, Correa and Kirilloff. "

Not sure how to interpret it as the odds are improvement going forward? (That is how I use xwOBA but that isn't at all what he typed)

I find it funny that that people like  @RpR thumbs down facts, without an actual response as to why.

He hasn't produced offensively, in 15 at-bats. I don't think that equates to him being bad offensively. He's accomplishing what he's trying to do and getting unlucky. I care much more about how he's swinging, and how that trend is carrying over from a spring that drew some rave reviews. 

Vazquez has been a solid hitter in the not too distant past. It'd be huge if he can get back to that level, building on early positives, which is the premise of the article. I don't know why people are choosing to interpret "Vazquez needs to earn that salary" as "Vazquez has earned his salary."

[Beast]

Correa is worth every penny.  Those acting like a $200M contract is some sort of albatross might as well just quit watching baseball or find a new team.  That’s peanuts for player of his caliber.  There is no hope if we can’t stomach that contract.

He’s one of the premier defenders in the entire game.  Had a down year last while being injured, but still led the clubhouse in route to a playoff birth, then nearly single handed it took over in the playoffs and got them a consolation play-in series win (for those inclined to celebrate such things as a major success).

He’s been absolutely phenomenal this year.  A .924 OPS, 169 OPS+, 8 walks to 8 Ks, getting on base at a .452 clip, has two 3 hit games already, has hit into 0 double plays.  If not for him, this is a 1 or 2 win team right now.

It’s no coincidence that they did what they couldn’t for two decades once they finally ponied up some cash for a premier free agent.  The money ballers living in baseball upside down thinking it’s a safer bet to keep payroll down by relying solely on the prospect roulette wheel and AAAA guys, because a couple of teams have had minuscule levels of success with in the entire modern baseball era via random lightning strikes, should learn a lesson there.  

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, he can't hit as badly as last year.....but I'm not sure I'd say he's earned his money this year (luck or not, it hasn't worked). I expect him (as many of us said in the off season) to be much better than he was last year, given his career. CC? He's great.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Not understanding something doesn't make it "made up".

Here's what is happening on the field, Vazquez is:

7th among all catchers in line drive rate by BIS (4th per MLB %)

In the 64th percentile in all MLB for average exit velocity (tied with Julio Rodriguez and Brent Rooker)

97th percentile in all MLB for barrel rate (barrels have resulted in a .708/.697/2.350 slash line in 2024)

In the bottom 10th percentile of MLB in BABIP with a .154 - even last year's objectively awful contact produced a .264 BABIP

 

What has been taught in baseball for over a century? Hit hard line drives. It's really that simple, none of this is new or contrary to old school baseball thought - it's just putting numbers to the old teaching. He's hitting the ball hard, it's just going right at the fielders right now. Hard to fault a guy for that. 

I understand completely what it is, and it is a predictive tool for hitters, using exit velocity, launch angle and topped or weakly hit balls sprint speed.

I also know that he has came to the plate 17 times and have gotten on base 3 times, all those stats you listed show that going forward things should be much better for him (and I hope that is true).

If I am comparing two guys with bad actual stats, I want the guy going forward with the better predictive stats.

[TwinsDr2021]

19 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

He hasn't produced offensively, in 15 at-bats. I don't think that equates to him being bad offensively. He's accomplishing what he's trying to do and getting unlucky. I care much more about how he's swinging, and how that trend is carrying over from a spring that drew some rave reviews.

That is a funny argument sure his actual stats are incredibly bad, but that doesn't mean he has been bad offensively? Like I have said before it is a SSS and predictive stats look good, so hopefully his actual stats start reflecting that.

EDIT - I will add I have watched more games on TV this year than the last 3 or 4 years combined and it doesn't seem to me that he is just being unlucky.

[jorgenswest]

Vazquez is valuable defensively and I think he has been valuable to the starting rotation in planning how to pitch to hitters in those meeting. Last year his salary fit a lot better in the context of a budget approaching 160 million. In this year’s budget the salaries of Vazquez and Correa are harder to justify but I think the 30 million reduction was not anticipated by Falvey. Falvey did make decisions this winter based on that 30 reduction that I would have made differently. I will leave that for other threads.

I did have a reaction to the belief that there truly is a free way to watch the Twins on TV. If that is the case then I would expect the Twins TV revenue to take another big drop next year and more cuts will be necessary. Why should anyone pay? If no one is paying, how do they secure a significant enough deal to sustain a competitive team?

[Joe A. Preusser]

Vasquez had a very tough time at the plate last year.  He wasn't happy about that AS A PROFESSIONAL and took it upon himself to be better.  Early results haven't been there, but the underlying metrics say his PROCESS has improved.  I believe he will have a nice year at the plate.  

At this point, right here, right now, his offensive results have been poor.  At the end of the season, RESULTS matter.  But when looking ahead, PROCESS matters.  And everything points to Vasquez's new process as being very good.  I would rather he be where he is now, than hitting .400 with terrible underlying metrics.  It's a long season.  

[jkcarew]

The underlying numbers for Vasquez are interesting and encouraging. I guess. Still, as a Twins fan, I’ve seen enough poor results from him, that I’ll have to remain in the  ‘believe it when I see it’ camp. The Twins paid him last year too, right?

Last year Correa was a very good player with a ridiculously low BABiP. This spring, he’s been a very good player with a nice BABiP.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I don't know why people are choosing to interpret "Vazquez needs to earn that salary" as "Vazquez has earned his salary."

Because you included "so far so good," in the headline?

[IndyTwinsFan]

And now Correa has left Friday's game against Detroit with a strained oblique.  I wonder how long he'll be out with that.

Go figure!

[Linus]

And I was just getting ready to post how much I appreciated CC playing all last year injured. This one he ain’t gonna play through.