Minnesota Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher

Jeffers isn’t Johnny Bench but the expectations for nearly every Twin, other than Correa & Buxton & Vazquez (the bottomed out trio), to go backward seems to be midwesterners (Minnesotans) shooting low to not be embarrassed in the end. Low expectations to not draw attention. (am from MN!)

Specific to catchers on roster…….if Jeffers hits .240 with an OBP of .330 and a slug% of .460, it’s regression but still All Good! Vazquez was embarrassed in the Playoffs after being acquired for his playoff experience & playing zero innings……..he’s been working hard on bat speed and has lost 7-8lbs and is dedicated to bounce back. Fingers crossed.

Line-up OPS+:

130 - 98 - 117 - 150 - 121 - 94 - 139 - 134 - 106

Buxton & Correa are the guys expected to improve in ‘24………..#2 & #6 respectively above. Yet, this team “needs offensive help” because most hitters will regress or fail in ‘24.

Nobody repeats success - nobody improves…….I don’t get it???

Julien - Buxton - Kirilloff - Lewis - Kepler - Correa - Wallner - Jeffers - Castro

Vazquez - Farmer - Satana veterans that play defense & POST & don’t make mistakes…..,that’s bench depth…………FO, working with ownership imposed budget, assembled a really solid team!!

Projected best bullpen in AL!! 3 good starters and another is pretty elite. Will have to piece together the 5th slot with 4-5 capable guys starting with Varland & DeSclafani.

Seems like there should be a bit more optimism - tired of the “we lost Sonny Gray & all is lost”…….

5 minutes ago, danielp19653 said:

Not sure about the percentage of runner's thrown out but remembered an article early in the offseason talking about how a lot of Jeffer's catching def markers dropped last year compared to his norm. In terms of framing looks like Vasquez was 22nd best at 3 runs saved and Jeffers was 51st with -4. a 7 run difference might explain a good chunk of that, especially in a stat that is hard to measure but probably weighted highly for catchers

 

*Edit that was from baseball savant it also has Vazquez at 25th with 0 above/below avg caught stealing and Jeffers at 61st at -5 below avg caught stealing all in all seems like baseball savant saw Vazquez last year as slightly above average and Jeffers as well below avg 

Just to expand a little, Jeffers lost a lot of value in framing last season compared to prior seasons. This is primarily due to a steep drop in how many calls he got just off the plate on either side. Since they track every pitch location, it's pretty easy to trust these numbers but I wouldn't expect Jeffers to have fallen off in his ability to frame. He should rebound next year. 

His blocking has never been strong, but again it was particularly bad last year. It looks like most of his issues here are actually passed balls, which matches up with my eye test. Pitches that you'd expect a catcher to at least knockdown went all the way to the backstop. I wouldn't expect this to be a strong skill for Jeffers. 

Now his throwing metrics just seem off per Statcast/Savant. They give him a -5 for caught stealing relative to average/expected, but they're also saying he only threw out 5 runners for 14% of attempted steals. This doesn't make sense to me, unless he threw out 8 runners at 1B/3B and they're only tracking stolen base attempts at 2B. 

Worth noting that within the -5 caught stealing above average number includes nearly 2 full CS from poor receiving at 2B (comically Vazquez hurt him the most with this poor tag, Polo's lazy attempt comes in 2nd) and that number doesn't include this whiff of a tag from Julien on a great throw.

Nick, not sure if this is accessible information, but it would be interesting to know what the fWAR prediction was for ‘23 for our duo.

They finished 9th of 30 in ‘23…….very respectable. This year, for some reason, they are predicted to drop 20% of the slots to 15 of 30. Am assuming there isn’t much difference from 6-25???

Wondering if &/or by how much they overachieved in ‘23? May lead to a better expectation for ‘24.

3 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Just to expand a little, Jeffers lost a lot of value in framing last season compared to prior seasons. This is primarily due to a steep drop in how many calls he got just off the plate on either side. Since they track every pitch location, it's pretty easy to trust these numbers but I wouldn't expect Jeffers to have fallen off in his ability to frame. He should rebound next year. 

His blocking has never been strong, but again it was particularly bad last year. It looks like most of his issues here are actually passed balls, which matches up with my eye test. Pitches that you'd expect a catcher to at least knockdown went all the way to the backstop. I wouldn't expect this to be a strong skill for Jeffers. 

Now his throwing metrics just seem off per Statcast/Savant. They give him a -5 for caught stealing relative to average/expected, but they're also saying he only threw out 5 runners for 14% of attempted steals. This doesn't make sense to me, unless he threw out 8 runners at 1B/3B and they're only tracking stolen base attempts at 2B. 

Worth noting that within the -5 caught stealing above average number includes nearly 2 full CS from poor receiving at 2B (comically Vazquez hurt him the most with this poor tag, Polo's lazy attempt comes in 2nd) and that number doesn't include this whiff of a tag from Julien on a great throw.

No hate here, just reality, should be an easier job catching without Gray’s slider & curve diving into the dirt off the plate in the Left hander batters box.

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

No hate here, just reality, should be an easier job catching without Gray’s slider & curve diving into the dirt off the plate in the Left hander batters box.

Very true. Worth noting his biggest struggle was blocking pitches that came in basically behind a left-handed batter's back foot.

Here's his 2023 blocking numbers/visual that you can compare to Vazquez.

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I think "regular catcher" in Rocco's book is no more than 100 games behind the plate. If Jeffers hits like he did last year the first quarter of the season we might see him DH a bit more. It would be a huge surprise if both catchers avoid the IL this year. My best guess as to distribution of starts is 90-60-12 with the equal chance that Jeffers or Vázquez gets injured, and it is probably both.

Obviously, guessing here…….Vazquez doing bat speed drills this winter & highly motivated after being embarrassed in last year’s playoffs ……….lost some weight as well…….also, having desire for Jeffers (both) FRESH in October will keep the starts more “even” through the year.

Am assuming only two guys for the whole season again just because injury time is even more of a guess. 86 for Jeffers @ Catcher (53%) with 14 at DH (if his offense stays stellar) & 76 for Vazquez (47%), with a bunch of those (25) coming v. LH pitching.

Vazquez got $10M because of experience - Defense - .271 BA from ‘19 - ‘22……….expecting a bit of an uptick from him in ‘24 is certainly plausible ……….if that happens it may be more like 50/50?

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Anecdotally, here are my thoughts/memories on Jeffers' 2023 defense: 1) Throwing/stolen bases: Jeffers was about league average 13/53 and considering that bases are easier to steal off right handed pitchers and that right handers logged well over 90% of the innings for the team in 2023, I think that number is respectable. 2) I remember Bremer bragging that Jeffers had blocked 100% of expected low pitches sometime during mid-season and he promptly let a low pitch go to the backstop. Overall, I thought RJ was okay blocking low pitches, but he seemed to slip a little as the season wore on. 3) I mentioned in an earlier post that I recalled Jeffers having a good "Catcher's ERA" (better than Vazquez), but I can't find that stat right now, (if someone would enlighten us that would be great). 4) Also mentioned earlier, the various sources are all over the board on defense, not only for Jeffers, but Carlos Santana and many others. I think catchers are probably the hardest to judge with much of their rating depending on an umpire's judgement or how much working well with a pitcher (calling a good game) matters and how much is the catcher. 

I thought Jeffers was more than acceptable defensively in 2023. He may have worn down a bit at the end of the season, but his hitting was so far superior to Vázquez that it was proper that he start all the post season games. 

Catcher ERA isn't used or reported any more because the catcher has as much control over ERA as a pitcher has control over wins. The Twins went 14-18 in Sonny Gray starts and 16-13 in Joe Ryan starts. Nowadays we're able to actually analyze most of the catcher's contributions via framing/blocking/preventing steals. I imagine some smart folks are working on a 'game calling' or pitch sequencing metric, but that probably gets tricky with intended pitch location.

Anyway, to answer your question yes you can still find catcher ERA. It's buried on individual baseball reference player pages under "Advanced Fielding". 

Jeffers had a 3.61 cERA and Vazquez had a 4.09.