What Does the Rotation Depth Chart Look Like After Louie Varland?

[Nick Nelson]

On Saturday, the Minnesota Twins confirmed some unfortunate news: Anthony DeSclafani will miss the entire season after undergoing elbow surgery, thus removing the single layer of added rotation depth from the offseason.

Needing a sixth (and seventh, and eighth) starter is a matter of when, not if. Let's size up the line of succession for Minnesota's starting corps.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Kyle Ross, Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Starting pitching is an interesting area for the 2024 Twins. On the one hand, they've got admirable talent packed into the starting five, reflected by statistical projections that ranked them among the league's best coming into the campaign. We saw the upside of this unit in the first two games of the season, with Pablo López and Joe Ryan overpowering opponents and spearheading comfortable wins.

On the other hand, the relative lack of depth compared to last year was noticeable, even before Anthony DeSclafani went down. By elevating Louie Varland into the season-opening rotation, the Twins used up the one proven contingency plan they had in the chamber. 

Chances are, it won't take long for the now-questionable rotation depth to be tested. While he appears to be healthy, Bailey Ober got annihilated by Kansas City in his first start on Sunday – an ominous early sign for a rotation looking to reconfigure itself in the absence of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. We haven't yet gotten a look at Varland, who had a 5.30 ERA as a starter in 2023, nor Chris Paddack, who threw a grand total of five innings last season.

Once the Twins start turning to the minors for help, they're not going to find a solution as inspiring as the 2023 version of Ober, or even the 2023 version of Varland. Here are the four pitchers who are seemingly in consideration as MLB rotation reinforcements, ranked in the order that I perceive them to be lined up:

1. Brent Headrick, LHP
Headrick has a leg up on the competition, in that he's got major-league experience (14 relief appearances with the Twins last year) and is already on the 40-man roster. The 26-year-old lefty started St. Paul's second game of the season in Triple-A on Sunday, striking out eight with no walks allowed in 3 ⅔ innings. He threw 76 pitches, so clearly, the club is keeping him stretched as a starter, ready to step in as the first line of defense.

Headrick is next in line for the Twins rotation. This much seems clear. From there, the picture gets much murkier.

2. Randy Dobnak, RHP
Dobnak is not currently on the 40-man roster, which seemingly puts him at a disadvantage for an MLB call-up. But I'm not sure it's that much of an impediment. Matt Canterino and Royce Lewis are among the candidates to go on the 60-day injured list and open a spot for Dobnak, who is making $2.25 million this year under a contract he signed before his career was derailed by injuries.

With 125 big-league innings under his belt, including a playoff start at Yankee Stadium, Dobnak has the most experience of anyone on the rotation depth chart. If he's actually healthy, there's little reason the Twins wouldn't turn back to him, and he looked plenty healthy during a sparkling season debut for the Saints on Saturday: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K.

I think there's a decent chance the Twins could promote Dobnak ahead of Headrick, depending on the timing of when a need emerges. Cody Pirkl wrote a good piece about Dobnak's situation Sunday.

3. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Theoretically, Woods Richardson should be at the top of this list. He is on the 40-man roster (unlike Dobnak) and he has made starts in the majors (unlike Headrick). Personally, though, I need to see more out of the angular righty to inspire legitimate confidence, and I wonder if the Twins feel the same way.

Coming off an extremely discouraging season at Triple-A, the 23-year-old stirred up some optimism by flashing improved velocity and stuff early in spring training. But he still got shipped out of MLB camp pretty early, and interestingly, he hasn't appeared in the first two games for St. Paul, unlike all others on this list.

Even after turning a corner and posting better results down the stretch for the Saints last year, Woods Richardson didn't display the traits of a guy built to succeed in the major leagues. He's got some work to do to be viewed as anything more than an emergency stopgap. 

4. David Festa, RHP
In terms of upside, Festa ranks No. 1 on this list, ranked by Twins Daily as the system's No. 5 prospect entering the 2024 season. After starting for the Twins in the Spring Breakout prospect showcase in mid-March, Festa got the Opening Day nod for the Saints on Saturday, tossing three scoreless innings with one hit allowed.

I wouldn't put it past the Twins to spring Festa immediately into action, if they find themselves looking for an impact replacement. But his "clean" opening outing at Triple-A included three walks and a 53% strike rate. Control was an issue for him last year; he posted a 10.6% BB rate in the minors.

As electric as his stuff is, there's a very good chance he'll struggle with walks against major-league hitters, which is a scenario the Twins want to avoid at all costs. I view him as more of an ongoing development project and mid-season option, as opposed to any short-term fix.

That leaves the Twins lacking any other immediate rotation depth outside of the aforementioned shaky trio: Headrick, Dobnak, and Woods Richardson. I'm not really sure how to size up the hierarchy beyond them, because you're suddenly turning to Double-A at that point. (Marco Raya? Cory Lewis? These names could enter the fold sooner than expected.)

I'm curious to hear thoughts from the community on the Twins' starting pitching depth chart, and your level of confidence in it. As I reviewed the current situation to write up this piece, I found myself pretty awestruck by the paper-thin nature of their dependable depth. Is the rotation equipped to endure a loss at the level of Lewis for the lineup, or Jhoan Durán for the bullpen? Or anything close?

View full article

[Dman]

Yeah I think they all have question marks and non of them really dominated their league last year either.  They all definitely showed flashes but consistency was a problem.  Of the names mentioned and I know I will get killed for this, but I think Dobnak makes some sense as he keeps the ball on the ground and in the park.  That being said hitters foul so much of his stuff off he gets in long counts and can be lucky to make it 5 innings.  Also since he can't miss bats even when he gets weak contact balls fall through for hits.  If he could find an out pitch he could be a strong 5th starter.

I might regret saying this, but I am on the SWR train.  I have seen him give up very loud contact, but he has a good mix and when he has control that changeup is a difference maker.  Still the consistency just hasn't been there and his fastball is\was very hittable last year.  He has some good stuff though and it all would work better if the fastball plays better.

Headrick has some mean stuff, but at times can't find the strike zone and then bam, gives up the Home Run.  I just struggle to trust him more than an inning or two, but the K rate seems to be there when he is on.  He certainly is an option for the 5th starter type role, but I don't trust him inning to inning. 

I agree with the OP's assessment of Festa.  I think he is better than all of the above names when he can throw strikes, but walking guys at the MLB level is trouble and Festa wears down easier than most as well.  I don't think he would be good as an early option, but maybe the Twins think otherwise.

It's not a group of arms that I feel you can bank on, but any of them could emerge to get the job done.  There's just more question marks than you would like IMO.

 

[Karbo]

At this point I agree it looks a little scary, But, the season is so young yet its just too soon to panic. Lets see what SWR can do. Both Headrick and Dobber were all right so far. Its springtime when hope should be high!

[Cory Engelhardt]

Woods Richardson is slated to start for the Saints tomorrow (Tuesday.) I have a hard time NOT having him at #1 on this list, especially with how he looked in the spring with a bit of added velocity. Hopefully Headrick and continue to look solid as well.

[DJL44]

1) Woods-Richardson - he's on the 40 man roster, has the most upside, has already made his debut. They need to find out what they have.

2) Headrick - could flip-flop with Woods-Richardson if the callup is for one game and he's the guy scheduled to make the start.

3) Festa - I don't think they will have much trouble adding him to the 40-man roster if they need to do it

4) Dobnak - Twins Daily needs to quit trying to make Randy Dobnak a thing. The only good thing about Dobnak is they can immediately cut him from the 40 man roster and nobody will claim him on waivers.

[jorgenswest]

The next pitcher in line is likely the pitcher is rested when there is a need. Last year Ober appeared to be next in line but Varland got the earlier opportunity since he was rested.

The Twins would be wise to sync the player they perceive most ready with the starter more likely to need replacement. I think that is Paddack or Varland so I would line up that pitcher so that they are in sync with those two or maybe a day earlier. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

A hearty thanks to Ownership and the FO for gutting the rotation this offseason...

There really is no "first choice" for who is up next.  Each has upside and each has glaring issues (which is why they are in AAA at the moment).  Outside of Dobnak (40-man roster thing), Headrick and SWR are the next men up.  Festa needs to see a few months of AAA success before he joins the mix.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The next pitcher in line is likely the pitcher is rested when there is a need.

If it is a short-term move, yes. If someone has a serious injury they'll promote their best pitcher.

[USAFChief]

It looks pretty uninspiring, is how it looks. 

Byproduct of the lack of legit pitching prospects, gutting the MLB salary, getting fleeced in the Polanco trade, and lack of any other offseason attempt to bolster the rotation.

My personal guess is SWR would be the first callup, but as jorganswest notes above, timing will most likely matter. 

And more than one of these four will almost surely get MLB starts anyway, so who is first probably isn't all that important. 

[jmlease1]

Quote

I found myself pretty awestruck by the paper-thin nature of their dependable depth. Is the rotation equipped to endure a loss at the level of Lewis for the lineup, or Jhoan Durán for the bullpen? Or anything close?

Well, it depends on how you look at it. If the expectation is that the rotation should always have the same level of depth that we had last season, where 2 younger guys with MLB experience, are waiting in AAA for no other reason than the team had better options ahead of them...then yeah: the rotation depth is thin and we might not have anyone capable of stepping in if Lopez or Ryan go down for an extended period.

But isn't that the case for most teams? How many teams have two MLB-ready starters with a ceiling of being at least a #2-3 guy just hanging out in AAA?

2023's rotation depth was the aberration in that we had Ober and Varland ready to go in AAA. But it's also important to remember that behind them the rotation depth was arguably worse than what we have now. Sure, we're running Headrick back again as an option, but we've also got Festa in the mix, SWR seems better positioned than last season, and Dobnak looks like a much more reasonable option as well.

And we certainly didn't have the depth in the bullpen last season to handle a loss like Duran last year.

We're now in the world where we're taking some risk on in the rotation and expecting that some of our pitching prospects will step in if called upon. This year, it's Festa. Next year it might be Raya, Lewis, or Ohl. (Much as I wish it was Canterino, you simply can't make that bet) I feel like that's the kind of bet you make when your rotation is all under 30?

I think who gets called up depends a little on timing, but the most likely choices are SWR and Headrick, unless it's already June and Festa's command and control look good. Dobnak is less likely to get grabbed for a spot-start because of the 40-man issue, but if he's pitching well and say Paddack goes to the IL, I could see him being added to the 40-man and given a chance if he's pitching well in Saint Paul.

I still like SWR's talent and with Festa...either you believe in him as a prospect or you don't. If you do then he's a legit option. If you don't, then you're probably going to spend most of the season mad at the Twins, because you don't agree with their prospect investment or development...

[GNess]

It seems to me if the Twins had a young starting pitcher they deemed ready to handle a rotation spot that pitcher would be in the Twins' rotation now and Varland would be in the bullpen or in St Paul because Varland's "readiness" is far from certain.

Now having said that at least there is a strength in numbers effect with the handful of reasonably speculative prospects, including Varland, who might well prove to be effective SP for the Twins, discerning which one or two is up the FO.

[TwinsDr2021]

19 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

2023's rotation depth was the aberration in that we had Ober and Varland ready to go in AAA. But it's also important to remember that behind them the rotation depth was arguably worse than what we have now.

Last year was Ober, Varland, De Leon, Dobnak, SWR, Sanchez, and they had to go get Keuchel because after Varland it really was terrible.

This year it is Dobnak, SWR, Festa and prospects, and this year at any level is better, I am not buying it.

Remember last year the starters were pretty healthy and the Twins started 43 games from depth in 22 they started around 60 from depth.

[Riverbrian]

It is vital that the Twins develop pitching and keep developing it. The depth that this article refers to is always going to come from the farm and players with options.

It should never come from players like DeSclafini or Bundy or Archer. 

At some point the depth players listed in this article are going into the rotation. 

It is up to the Twins to have them ready for the opportunity that is coming soon. It is critical.  

We all know that the Twins are not going to sign the big name free agent pitcher and if they are not going to sign the big name free agent pitcher. They must DEVELOP their own pitching. 

The loss of Desclafini is quite possibly helpful. 

It's up to the Twins pitching pipeline development. 

BTW... Another consideration in case creativity is needed.  

Bullpen games every 5th day are not out of the question. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

If we had focused & obtained a dominating 2nd postseason SP, our rotation would look so much better, Varland would have been the piggyback option with Paddack. Lopez is a solid & dependable SP, if we lose him due to the hole in our rotation, it'd be a greater loss than losing Duran or Lewis. Ober's performance discourages hope of him becoming that #2 SP we need. Our problem has never been our #5 SP it's our gap at #2

I'm on the SWR train also but I'm impressed with Festa, Headrick & Dobnak so far (although Dobnak isn't the pitcher he used to be). We'll see how SWR does.

I was hoping Canterino would develop into a SP but the way things look now, he might be destined to stay in the BP. If Raya & Lewis really turn it up at AA & get promoted to AAA early, they might get a shot at the show. But a dependable vet MiLB signing would be good insurance.

[Doctor Gast]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It is vital that the Twins develop pitching and keep developing it. The depth that this article refers to is always going to come from the farm and players with options.

It should never come from players like DeSclafini or Bundy or Archer. 

At some point the depth players listed in this article are going into the rotation. 

It is up to the Twins to have them ready for the opportunity that is coming soon. It is critical.  

We all know that the Twins are not going to sign the big name free agent pitcher and if they are not going to sign the big name free agent pitcher. They must DEVELOP their own pitching. 

The loss of Desclafini is quite possibly helpful. 

It's up to the Twins pitching pipeline development. 

BTW... Another consideration in case creativity is needed.  

Bullpen games every 5th day are not out of the question. 

 

You have my vote

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

It looks pretty uninspiring, is how it looks. 

Byproduct of the lack of legit pitching prospects, gutting the MLB salary, getting fleeced in the Polanco trade, and lack of any other offseason attempt to bolster the rotation.

My personal guess is SWR would be the first callup, but as jorganswest notes above, timing will most likely matter. 

And more than one of these four will almost surely get MLB starts anyway, so who is first probably isn't all that important. 

I'm curious ... But how many teams have pitching even half as good as the Twins? If the AAA guys had no faults, they'd be in the majors. 

Imo, people are really unrealistic in their thoughts on pitching depth across the league. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

A hearty thanks to Ownership and the FO for gutting the rotation this offseason...

Blaming the ownership for Falvey's spending habits is cruel. It's like giving a college kid $100 for groceries and stuff for the week only for them to spend $95 on a vintage mushroom lamp that looks cool in the dorm room.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm curious ... But how many teams have pitching even half as good as the Twins? If the AAA guys had no faults, they'd be in the majors. 

Imo, people are really unrealistic in their thoughts on pitching depth across the league. 

Half as good? Every team other than the Rockies are projected as at least 50% as much fWAR as the Twins' rotation. It all depends on how you look at guys like Ryan, Paddack and Ober. None of them have a career FIP south of 3.93. If you believe they're better now than what they have been over their career (back end starters), then the Twins are in good shape.

If you don't believe they'll all be better than their careers this year, the Twins aren't in nearly as good of shape.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

If we had focused & obtained a dominating 2nd postseason SP, our rotation would look so much better, Varland would have been the piggyback option with Paddack. Lopez is a solid & dependable SP, if we lose him due to the hole in our rotation, it'd be a greater loss than losing Duran or Lewis. Ober's performance discourages hope of him becoming that #2 SP we need. Our problem has never been our #5 SP it's our gap at #2

I'm on the SWR train also but I'm impressed with Festa, Headrick & Dobnak so far (although Dobnak isn't the pitcher he used to be). We'll see how SWR does.

I was hoping Canterino would develop into a SP but the way things look now, he might be destined to stay in the BP. If Raya & Lewis really turn it up at AA & get promoted to AAA early, they might get a shot at the show. But a dependable vet MiLB signing would be good insurance.

Bauer rhymes with Mauer

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The next pitcher in line is likely the pitcher is rested when there is a need. Last year Ober appeared to be next in line but Varland got the earlier opportunity since he was rested.

The Twins would be wise to sync the player they perceive most ready with the starter more likely to need replacement. I think that is Paddack or Varland so I would line up that pitcher so that they are in sync with those two or maybe a day earlier. 

Might be why SWR is pitching on the same schedule as Paddack.

[Mike Sixel]

39 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Half as good? Every team other than the Rockies are projected as at least 50% as much fWAR as the Twins' rotation. It all depends on how you look at guys like Ryan, Paddack and Ober. None of them have a career FIP south of 3.93. If you believe they're better now than what they have been over their career (back end starters), then the Twins are in good shape.

If you don't believe they'll all be better than their careers this year, the Twins aren't in nearly as good of shape.

come on. It was clearly an exaggeration.

The Twins are projected as one of the best SP and RP teams in the league. So, either believe in the projections or not, up to you.

[Mike Sixel]

45 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Blaming the ownership for Falvey's spending habits is cruel. It's like giving a college kid $100 for groceries and stuff for the week only for them to spend $95 on a vintage mushroom lamp that looks cool in the dorm room.

The owner said they were cutting costs, and they did. The second most by percent in the league. 20 million less spent on payroll this year than last. I'm not sure how that's on anyone but the owner.

[farmerguychris]

Sure, the list isn't impressive - but what team has studs as their #6-10 starters just waiting for a chance.  I'm sure Pablo was at one time sitting in the minors waiting for his chance to try it in the bigs.

 

[Rosterman]

I think the Twins may be giving Duarte a chance to be a starter if an opening happens. Look for him to be pushed to three innings next time someone goes short. 

[bean5302]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The owner said they were cutting costs, and they did. The second most by percent in the league. 20 million less spent on payroll this year than last. I'm not sure how that's on anyone but the owner.

The Twins were losing money. They cut costs. I'm not excited about it as a season ticket holder, but I do understand why they did it.

How they cut costs was up to Falvey. Falvey elected to keep Kepler, Farmer and took on substantial salary when trading Polanco. He signed a has-been 1B he didn't need and who can't hit right handed. None of that was necessary.

It amounted to squandering the money he had to spend because Falvey is like a dog at a squirrel park. That's the point. He spends money poorly.

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

I think the Twins may be giving Duarte a chance to be a starter if an opening happens. Look for him to be pushed to three innings next time someone goes short. 

That would be a desperation move  None of Duarte's MLB organizations have given him a start, even in the minors, since he was 19 years old.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm curious ... But how many teams have pitching even half as good as the Twins? 

 

Fair point. I guess we'll find out.

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Fair point. I guess we'll find out.

 

that was an exaggeration....but they are projected by most sites to be one of the top 5 pitching teams this year.....which I find kind of mind boggling, but when you look at other staffs, you realize there just aren't that many pitchers very good or better out there.

[1985Fan]

Given Desclafini injury and Obers shaky start, I wonder if Falvey will deviate from his offseason blueprint. Or if he is allowed to. Too early to make judgement on Ober, but go sign Clevinger if he’s available. Lorenzen signed a reasonable one year deal. Clevinger should be signed for the same deal. He’d be a decent 5th SP and would move Varland back into a depth role. That is a much better looking depth chart than now. Unless there is something wrong with Clevinger? Strange that the Mets or others with pitching injuries haven’t been engaged with him. No rumors out there about him. 
 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

The lack of news on Clevinger is odd. The Mets had a starter go down and they are supposedly talking with Julio Teheran.  No one is reported to be negotiating or talking to Clevinger at all.  He turned down a $12m option if memory serves. Maybe he just wants too much money?