Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Nick used the word "hope" three times in this article.  That basically sums up the Twins SP this year behind Lopez.

Teams that have WS aspirations should not be using the words "hope" and "starting pitcher" in the same sentence.

Very very sad. 

"The Twins are in much better shape with starting pitching than a vast majority of teams around the league"

This is why I'm not too worried about the rotation to start the season. Looking around the division, Louie Varland is probably the best healthy 5th starter.  The Minnesota starters should also have the benefit of more run support than any of the other rotations in the division.

54 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Nick used the word "hope" three times in this article.  That basically sums up the Twins SP this year behind Lopez.

Teams that have WS aspirations should not be using the words "hope" and "starting pitcher" in the same sentence.

Very very sad. 

Hope was especially used when talking about DeSclavani because there was nothing to back anything up. I am confident that our SPs will bring us a Central Division Title. But as mentioned I doubt we advance in the postseason. For Ryan & or Ober to take that big step is where hope comes in. The Twins got the max out of Gray, I doubt that STL will replicate it.

IMO our depth is fine although signing Rich Hill to a minor league contract would be wise yet giving our in-house SPs plenty of opportunity to shine. I see Festa & even Raya able to see some time at MLB. Whereas signing a FA would block them & cost us. We have to be lucky at the deadline if that's the route they are thinking.

As long as health isn't an issue. I see all of Lopez, Ryan and Ober getting up towards 180+ innings and making their regular turns in the rotation. I also think Varland is capable of fulltime seasonal work.

I love watching Ryan and Varland work. Ryan, when he can set the timing of a game, is a gem. He needs to work on crafty pitching locations, maybe make Vasquez his regular catcher. You will give up his, but don't let it affect your timing. The homer-run ball still happens. But I ike that he will chalenge a hitter.

Same can be said for Varland. No one works faster than Varland. And he, too, will challenge the hitter. But if he can keep the hitter off-balance, watch out. Sure, we maight've like to see him start the season and egt real comfortable in St. Paul. He still could, if the Twins want to pitch him that way for the first 10-12 days before coming across town.

Paddack will be fine, but I see a max of 25 starts and maybe 130+ innings at best. What then? Some bullpen work? Hopefully we have someone at St. Paul capable of settling into the rotation.

Woods Richardson, Headrick, Festa are all on the lightrail if the time comes. Dbnak could still be a player. Be curious to see what the rotation is in St. Paul. Too bad about Canterino. Was hoping he might blossom into someone other than the next Burdi of the Twins.

One could've dreamed. A one-year flyer on Blake Snell for $32m...humm, I would've gone for it, even with the second year option that he would walk from if he pitches great. Who would've thought.

Looks like Louie was "working on a few things" today.  No need to worry.  😉

37 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

A lot of hope/trust being heaped on Varland as a starter. I don’t know. Maybe I missed something.

Agreed.  Plus an almost equal amount of hope on Paddack being both effective and healthy.  Add in a little hope for Ryan and Ober too.  I feel good about the lineup, the bench, the bullpen, and positional depth in the minors.  But starting pitching... oof, it isn't hard to imagine a disaster if we get 1 injury and one of the top 3 starters has a bad year.

I think the "trust" issue on Ober & Ryan is a little overblown. Ober got that call and didn't pitch that great so he got pulled to hopefully keep the game within reach with a fully-loaded bullpen. Ryan was pitching in an elimination game, so why not throw everything you have at it, especially with Pablo Lopez ready to go for game 4? (unfortunately, the offense didn't show in game 4) There weren't exactly a ton of opportunities for either in the playoffs.

I'm a little concerned about the depth, because having DeSclafani pull a Mahle isn't great. but Varland deserves to start. I've always been a little higher on SWR than others, so I still feel like there's some depth to draw on later in the season, and it's kind of nice to have all 5 starters be on the good side of 30 for once.

I wouldn't expect this rotation to be as strong as last season's, but it's hardly a trash fire. I like what we have in there better than any season in the last 5 years excepting 2023. I mean, in 2020 we were still relying on Randy Dobnak & the corpse of Rich Hill. 2021 had Matt Shoemaker, JA Happ, and Griffin Jax getting 44 effin' starts. 2022 we were trying to plug the holes with Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer. I'd certainly rather have Varland & Paddack be my last 2 guys in the rotation than any of those guys.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I think the "trust" issue on Ober & Ryan is a little overblown. Ober got that call and didn't pitch that great so he got pulled to hopefully keep the game within reach with a fully-loaded bullpen. Ryan was pitching in an elimination game, so why not throw everything you have at it, especially with Pablo Lopez ready to go for game 4? (unfortunately, the offense didn't show in game 4) There weren't exactly a ton of opportunities for either in the playoffs.

I'm a little concerned about the depth, because having DeSclafani pull a Mahle isn't great. but Varland deserves to start. I've always been a little higher on SWR than others, so I still feel like there's some depth to draw on later in the season, and it's kind of nice to have all 5 starters be on the good side of 30 for once.

I wouldn't expect this rotation to be as strong as last season's, but it's hardly a trash fire. I like what we have in there better than any season in the last 5 years excepting 2023. I mean, in 2020 we were still relying on Randy Dobnak & the corpse of Rich Hill. 2021 had Matt Shoemaker, JA Happ, and Griffin Jax getting 44 effin' starts. 2022 we were trying to plug the holes with Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer. I'd certainly rather have Varland & Paddack be my last 2 guys in the rotation than any of those guys.

Paddack went longer than Ryan in game 4. I definitely think there were trust issues (rightfully so) with Ryan entering that game. 

Yeah, I think Varland is the better option between the two, but that's not saying a whole lot. Louie needs to show he can stick in the back end of a rotation, he's far from a lock. Paddack's innings limit isn't getting the attention it probably should. He's going to require 50-60 innings allocated elsewhere to fill out his rotation spot, and that assumes he's healthy and productive nearly all year. It's a tough outlook for the SP right now. 

Trash fire is an awfully low bar to clear. Sure, I'll take Paddack and Varland over Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, Archer, ect. but the teams that handed that group starts imploded and missed the postseason entirely. Failing to win a pretty pathetic ALC would be a massive **** up. I don't expect anybody (Lopez included) to finish runner up for the AL Cy Young, some regression is/was expected, but right now the 2024 Twins are one injury away from their back end looking eerily similar to those trash fires you mentioned. 

For every comment about these guys in the rotation being "good enough" there is an equal chance of them NOT being "good enough". The FO, in my opinion, bringing in ANOTHER injured arm shows they don't know what they are doing. Counting on an injured DeSclafani and Paddack, who has one season barely over 100 innings in the last 4 years, is a huge gamble and if the rotation implodes, they only have themselves to blame. If the fans turn away due to a poor showing then ownership can join them. In a season where the team should have tried to improve on a decent season, they took a step backward. 

Sure, spring training games mean nothing, so lets not put any stock into the fact that the Twins are 8-15 and the Tigers are 16-8 at this point. Just looks like one team is going thru the motions and the other team is actually trying. Tell me I'm crazy but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tigers take the division.  

Here is how I would rank our rotation in terms of durability.

1 Varland. I think he could handle 180-200 innings.  He has shown to be durable.  The question with him, will his ERA be around 4 so he can pitch those innings or 5+ and spend time in AAA.

2.  Lopez.  He can also pitch 180-200 innings

3.  Ober.  He seems to be in the 160-180 range

4. Ryan.  He also seems to be in the 160-180 range

5. Paddack.  He is coming back from injury so expect 120-140 innings

we can work in depth options from here.  If we have another major injury, we have more prospect trade capital to go get a starter if need be. 

8 hours ago, rv78 said:

For every comment about these guys in the rotation being "good enough" there is an equal chance of them NOT being "good enough". The FO, in my opinion, bringing in ANOTHER injured arm shows they don't know what they are doing. Counting on an injured DeSclafani and Paddack, who has one season barely over 100 innings in the last 4 years, is a huge gamble and if the rotation implodes, they only have themselves to blame. If the fans turn away due to a poor showing then ownership can join them. In a season where the team should have tried to improve on a decent season, they took a step backward. 

Sure, spring training games mean nothing, so lets not put any stock into the fact that the Twins are 8-15 and the Tigers are 16-8 at this point. Just looks like one team is going thru the motions and the other team is actually trying. Tell me I'm crazy but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tigers take the division.  

It wouldn't surprise me either.  The Twins don't look good this spring.  They have the worst record in baseball.  Some say it doesn't matter; and maybe they're right.  I just wish that people would stop talking about who we can count on in "the playoffs."  Talk about counting your chickens.  I mean really! 

Look, you can look worst-case scenario, expect failure and disaster, or not. But tell me, how many teams in MLB aren't at major risk if 2 of their best starters go down for extended periods of time/the season? (how does the Yankees rotation look right now? How concerning is it for the Red Sox that their big pitching acquisition is done for the year?) The idea that you should realistically have 5 starters with no injury history, under the age of 30, with at least one ace and 1-2 more pitchers with high ceilings, no one a retread or trying to come back from a significant injury, along with 3 guys ready in AAA (2 young high-value prospects with high ceilings who have already at least had a cup of coffee in MLB and shown they can get guys out at this level and 1 veteran who signed with you because the rest of the league was too stupid to give them the MLB contract they deserved), etc just isn't how it works.

Twins (like most teams, but especially mid-to-small market ones) have assumed some risks with this club. One of them is in the rotation, where they are counting on a rehab effort (Paddack) and 3 guys with relatively thin resumes (Ober, Ryan, Varland) to carry them alongside their ace, and with reasonably good health (being challenged with DeSclafani going down and very possibly out). They seem to believe that Festa and SWR will be ready to take on MLB hitters if needed.

"It's fair to say that the Twins aren't in nearly as good of a position from a rotation quality and depth standpoint as they were a year ago, with Gray, Maeda and Mahle all on hand."

It's also fair to say that I will be replacing Mahle's production while sitting on my computer reading Twins Daily, so I've got that one covered.

22 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

You don’t think the defending Champion Rangers are hoping that Eovaldi holds up…….Dunning doesn’t suck……Scherzer is not over the hill and bounces back at some point in early season……..& deGrom isn’t on the IL by September 1, after starting 6 games????

How much HOPING are the Dodgers doing with their $324M man getting rocked essentially every time he steps on the mound…….could be a long 12 years! He gave up 5 ER in 1 inning of work v. the Padres in his MLB debut….,,oh, btw, Dodger’s big acquisition from the Rays got lit up in his debut as well.

The Orioles are praying daily that their two rotation guys come back sooner than later.

On & on…….lots of organizations with World Series aspirations with their fingers crossed.

Are you really going to put the Dodgers SP in the same discussion as the Twins?

Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Degrom all have EXTENSIVE history of high to supreme level performances.  Are you really as or more concerned about those guys than Paddack and any of the unproven Twins pitchers they want to fill SP4 and 5?

The Orioles are projected to win 84 games and finish third.  They need more than hope to be WS contenders this year.

If the Twins re-signed Gray and/or Maeda, or made another move (FA or trade) for a quality SP, they would be able to make a legit argument for being a top tier team.  They did not do that.  They let those two go HOPING that Paddack (who has not pitched well since 2019) and Desclafani (a 33 year old injury risk who hasn't pitched well since 2021) somehow pitch well and that some of their AAA prospects (prospects the Twins feel so strongly about they went and got Desclafani anyways) do something at the MLB level.  They are hoping that Ryan (a solid SP3) and Ober (their best chance at a true SP2 IMO) improve.

There is potential for this rotation to be solid, but don't kid yourself.  Many, many things have to go right.

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Look, you can look worst-case scenario, expect failure and disaster, or not. But tell me, how many teams in MLB aren't at major risk if 2 of their best starters go down for extended periods of time/the season? (how does the Yankees rotation look right now? How concerning is it for the Red Sox that their big pitching acquisition is done for the year?) The idea that you should realistically have 5 starters with no injury history, under the age of 30, with at least one ace and 1-2 more pitchers with high ceilings, no one a retread or trying to come back from a significant injury, along with 3 guys ready in AAA (2 young high-value prospects with high ceilings who have already at least had a cup of coffee in MLB and shown they can get guys out at this level and 1 veteran who signed with you because the rest of the league was too stupid to give them the MLB contract they deserved), etc just isn't how it works.

Twins (like most teams, but especially mid-to-small market ones) have assumed some risks with this club. One of them is in the rotation, where they are counting on a rehab effort (Paddack) and 3 guys with relatively thin resumes (Ober, Ryan, Varland) to carry them alongside their ace, and with reasonably good health (being challenged with DeSclafani going down and very possibly out). They seem to believe that Festa and SWR will be ready to take on MLB hitters if needed.

The Twins are at major risk if they lose any single starter for an extended period of time, not just Lopez or Ober/Ryan. Nobody is arguing the worst case scenario, not even close. If this team aims to finish last in their division and start tearing things down Boston might be a decent comp. There was no savvy veteran arm signed. There isn't one, let alone two, high tier arms waiting to break into the rotation. This team is more likely to sign a Kuechel clone, throw bullpen games, or hand a start(s) to Randy Dobnak if somebody gets hurt early enough into the season. They're heavily reliant on health/performance question marks in the rotation, and plan B is a handful of minor league arms that haven't proven they can consistently get AA/AAA hitters out. 

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Degrom all have EXTENSIVE history of high to supreme level performances.  Are you really as or more concerned about those guys than Paddack and any of the unproven Twins pitchers they want to fill SP4 and 5?
 

"One of these things is not like the others..."

Overrated Eovaldi had a good season last year, but he's nowhere near the class of Scherzer or DeGrom. not with that career ERA+ of 103. He's also 34 with an extensive history of injuries (not performances), with literally one great season. He's like half the pitcher Sonny Gray has been over their respective careers and no one is putting Sonny in the same category as Scherzer or DeGrom either. 

I would be at least as concerned about Eovaldi as I am about Paddack; at least Paddack is 6 years younger...