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The Twins managed to win the AL Central and advance in the playoffs last year despite receiving a career-worst season (by far) from Carlos Correa, freshly signed to a franchise-record $200-million contract. Imagine what they're capable of this year, if he can return to something resembling his typical All-Star form.
That's what the Twins are banking on from their $36 million man, whose salary accounts for more than a quarter of total payroll. Spending limitations prevented the front office from being able to add much around Correa and their young core this year, so the Twins will need him to elevate and earn the hefty paycheck on the field if they want to achieve their ambitious goals.
TWINS SHORTSTOPS AT A GLANCE
Starter: Carlos Correa
Backup: Kyle Farmer
Depth: Royce Lewis, Willi Castro
Prospects: Brooks Lee, Danny De Andrade
Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 15th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 6th out of 30
THE GOOD
In a very disappointing 2023 campaign, Correa left a strong lasting impression, posting an .840 OPS in 15 September games and then starring for the Twins in October, where he batted .409 with three doubles and four RBIs in six games. Delivering when it counted most (along with his obvious leadership impact and dependable availability) made it feel like the team got no shortage of value from Correa, even as his on-field results suffered.
While there were definitely concerning signs in his performance decline, Correa is still only 29 and was battling plantar fasciitis for much of the season, so there's reason to view 2023 as a blip, rather than a trend. He experienced similar offensive struggles in the abbreviated pandemic season, when he slashed .264/.326/.383, but bounced back with a career-high 6.2 fWAR in 2021. Minnesota is hoping he's got a similar turnaround in him now, at a critical moment.
Early signs in camp are promising. Correa says he's now pain-free, after the foot issue lingered into the offseason. He reports that he worked on his mechanics during the winter to gain more confidence in his swing, which was evidently out of whack last year.
At his best, Correa is clearly one of the best shortstops in baseball, and his impact goes well beyond what he provides on the field. Even a modest offensive rebound would make him a highly valuable overall asset to the team, while a return to his previous norm will likely put him in the MVP conversation.
THE BAD
It's convenient to pass off Correa's unprecedented struggles last year as entirely the byproduct of his plantar fasciitis, and to assume he'll put it all behind him now that the issue has (ostensibly) been resolved--maybe too convenient.
Correa was originally diagnosed with the foot injury on May 24. At that point, he was slashing .213/.302/.396, which is nearly identical to his total line for the season (.230/.312/.399). April, when the shortstop was theoretically most healthy, was in fact his worst month. As the season progressed, Correa never managed to get going, grounding into a league-leading 30 double plays as he persistently failed to make authoritative contact.
In particular, Correa struggled to crush fastballs, posting a -5 Run Value against them after being plus-17 in 2022. And while he made plenty of flashy plays in the field, his defensive metrics were more ordinary than elite, for a second consecutive campaign. It's difficult to parse how much of this can be attributed to aging, versus physical decline, versus randomness, versus the foot injury specifically. I guess we'll find out soon enough. But it's impossible for Correa's tumultuous free-agent journey prior to last season not to loom in one's mind, when it was followed by such poor performance in year one.
THE BOTTOM LINE
As he proved last year, it'll take a lot to force Minnesota's unofficial captain off the field. In the event he does get sidelined, Farmer is the top backup, having started 27 of the 28 games Correa missed last year, and Castro is back as secondary depth.
In a career-worst year for Correa, the Twins still ranked in the middle of the major-league pack for shortstop production and snapped a 20-year postseason curse. Just think what they can do if he manages to prove that 2023 was, indeed, an outlier.
Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:
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