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This will be Max Kepler's eighth consecutive Opening Day start in right field for the Twins. Ever since the 2017 season he's been a constant out there in a career that has included some lofty highs and frustrating lows. Now, we finally appear to be reaching the end of the road for Max in Minny. Kepler evaded the swirling trade rumors this past offseason, but he's due for free agency after 2024 and the team appears in no position to extend or re-sign him.
The stakes are high as he looks to bolster his market and help elevate one of the most clear-cut contenders of his lengthy tenure.
TWINS RIGHT FIELDERS AT A GLANCE
Starter: Max Kepler
Backup: Manuel Margot
Depth: Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff
Prospects: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kala'i Rosario
Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 8th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 10th out of 30
THE GOOD
It was business as usual for Kepler last year. Then it wasn't. He slumped his way into the All-Star break with a .688 OPS but then a switch finally flipped for the outfielder. He came out of the break on a six-game hitting streak and never looked back, slashing .306/.377/.549 in the second half and playing a pivotal role as Minnesota went 42-29 to lock up the division.
Kepler finished with 2.6 fWAR, third-highest on the team and second-best of his career, which is awfully impressive when you consider that as of mid-July he was at about zero. Just as it seemed he was completing his gradual descent into mediocrity, Kepler stunningly turned the tables and recaptured the high-end form of his 2019 season. Now we'll see if it sticks.
Nothing about Kepler's second-half emergence seemed illegitimate. He was crushing the ball consistently, with a 92.4 MPH post-break average exit velocity that led the Twins and ranked 15th in the majors. His approach at the plate was dialed in. Kepler's always graded out pretty well on the Statcast sliders and last year he was blazing red, with all the attributes of a well-rounded star player.
Offensive output was the icing on the cake for a right fielder of rare defensive caliber. Kepler's range and athleticism are extremely uncommon in the province of slow-footed sluggers. Over the past five seasons he ranks second among MLB right fielders in defensive value, per FanGraphs. It's been an underrated aspect of the outfielder's value, and when he's hitting Kepler's impact in the field really shines.
Over the past few seasons, Kepler has mostly been healthy and available, but he's run into the occasional IL stint. If that happens again, Wallner is an obvious choice to slide over from left. It seems clear that beyond 2024 this position will belong to the strong-armed Wallner, and as we discussed in the left field preview, there's much to like about his outlook now and going forward.
THE BAD
Kepler's huge second half reversed a long-running trend of performance decline spanning several seasons. Since his career year in 2019, his OPS+ had dropped from 109 to 98 to 92, and the 2023 campaign was looking like another step downward. By the All-Star break, calls for the Twins to move on were loudening.
In spite of newly implemented shift limitations, Kepler's signature struggle – generating consistent results when putting the ball in play – continued to hold him back, with a .213 BABIP in the first half. After mid-July it all came together, as Kepler enjoyed a run of batted-ball success like never before, posting a .351 BABIP in the second half. He finished with a career-high .260 average, driven by an overall .288 BABIP that bested his previous career benchmark by 40 points.
How much of that was legit and how much was the byproduct of an extended locked-in hot streak? That's really the key question entering a pivotal walk year for Kepler. The talent has always been there, and we've seen sporadic bursts of standout production at times, but outside of 2019 he's never been able to sustainably harness it.
Even in looking at Kepler's excellent second half in 2023, we can see the emergence of another negative trend leading up to the finish line, with a flat postseason performance.
Another point of regression risk for Kepler is his performance against left-handed pitching. This will be important since it's likely he will be platooned out of the lineup far less frequently than Wallner or Edouard Julien. Kepler held his own against southpaws last year, slashing .250/.320/.432 after posting a .677 OPS against them in 2022 and .509 in 2021.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Kepler's post-break surge last year secured him a place in the team's 2024 plans, but it's hard to see a future for him here beyond that. The Twins are banking on the right fielder channeling his turnaround into a big year that approximates his 4-WAR campaign in 2019. If he's able to do so it would be huge for both him and the team, setting Kepler up for a big free-agent payday while adding another All-Star performer to Minnesota's potentially loaded lineup.
If Kepler lapses once again and reverts to the same sub-mediocre form as he did in the first half last year, the Twins may feel compelled to accelerate their plans for Wallner to succeed him as long-term right fielder. It will be interesting how much his lengthy tenure and status factor into that decision as the team chases championship aspirations and, as always, keeps an eye to the future.
Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:
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