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Left field has hosted some of the great power-hitting performances in modern Twins history – from Jacque Jones to Josh Willingham to Eddie Rosario. Last year a rookie entered the fold capable of mashing with the best of these storied sluggers. But Matt Wallner has plenty to prove entering his first full season, and the long-term plan in left field isn't totally clear with the 26-year-old presumably shifting to right after this year.
Here's a rundown of Wallner's outlook as primary left fielder, and what's behind him on the depth chart, now and going forward.
TWINS LEFT FIELDERS AT A GLANCE
Starter: Matt Wallner
Backup: Manuel Margot
Depth: Willi Castro, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach
Prospects: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Austin Martin
Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 14th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 19th out of 30
THE GOOD
Wallner isn't competing for a starting job this spring – left field belongs to him. That's how convincing his showing in 76 games as a rookie for the Twins was. The Forest Lake native launched 14 homers and posted a 139 OPS+ in 214 plate appearances, flashing the core attributes of a prototypical power bat. He ranked third on the Twins in average exit velocity, third in launch angle, and second in barrel rate.
The slugging was impressive, but mostly expected. What really made Wallner's debut exciting was the well-rounded nature of his play. He drew walks at a strong 11% clip. He found enough hits outside of the homers to produce a respectable .249 batting average. He played solid defense, despite mostly being used at a position that he rarely played while coming through the system. (In the minors, 258 of Wallner's 281 defensive starts came in right field.)
This isn't a one-trick pony. Wallner is a ballplayer. But to be sure, pure raw power is the main attraction here. It's the trait that got him drafted in the first round (in 2019), earned him Minor League Player of the Year honors (in 2022) and holds his ticket to potential stardom in the big leagues. Wallner has the kind of power where – when he connects – everyone in the park knows it's gone at that moment. The clip below exemplifies this well:
It will be exciting to see what Wallner can do in a full season. His underlying metrics weren't good just by Twins standards last year – they were elite by the league's standards. His 18.8% barrel rate would've ranked third in the majors if qualified, behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. His average exit velocity was the same as Mike Trout's. As long as he keeps regression at bay, Wallner is going to be a lethal force against right-handed pitching, and possibly the cleanup hitter.
Against lefties, it's best to keep him shielded. Wallner batted .119 against southpaws last year. The addition of Margot forms a natural platoon partnership in left, and heading into the season, that's probably the tentative plan. Margot doesn't have much power, especially in comparison to Wallner, but he's a career .281 hitter against LHP with a .341 on-base percentage, and a superior defender in left.
Margot will be a great backup to Wallner so long as he's not needed in center. That's a fairly big caveat. In all likelihood, we'll see a lot of Castro here, probably a fair amount of Martin, and maybe a bit of Kirilloff if Carlos Santana is stationed at first. Larnach will be stuck in Triple-A waiting for an opportunity, which is unfortunate for him but convenient for the Twins. I still believe in his bat.
THE BAD
I mentioned earlier that Wallner was among the team leaders in exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate. You know who led the Twins in each of those categories? Joey Gallo. Point being: hitting the ball hard doesn't mean much if you're getting beaten in a vast majority of your at-bats. That didn't happen to Wallner in his limited rookie sample, but it's clearly the concern going forward as the league adjusts.
His playoff performance gave a glimpse of Wallner's downside, as opposing pitchers were able to bear down and neutralize his threat, holding him hitless in eight at-bats. He's going to have spells where he slumps badly and strikes out a ton. It's the nature of the beast for his player profile. Minimizing and mitigating those rough patches will hold the key to his sustained impact.
Wallner managed to keep his strikeouts relatively in check as a rookie. His 31.5% K-rate would've led the majors in 2003 but ranked fifth on the Twins in 2023; in other words, it's not really an extreme whiff profile in today's game. If he remains in that range, one can feel fairly confident in the 26-year-old's continued offensive success.
Regardless of what happens with Wallner this season, the future in left field feels uncertain thereafter. With Max Kepler expected to depart as a free agent, the door will be open for Wallner to move back to his natural position, leaving left field unspoken for. Unless Larnach can find a way to re-establish himself this year, it's anyone's guess who might be next in line.
Right now, the next best hope internally looks like Emmanuel Rodriguez, who we have ranked as the No. 3 prospect in the system. He's currently a center fielder but generally viewed as a future corner guy, and Rodriguez could be knocking on the door of the majors by year's end. Like with Wallner, his ability to make consistent contact will be make-or-break. Gabriel Gonzalez, the centerpiece of the Jorge Polanco trade, could also be a factor here in the years to come. But in all likelihood both players are multiple seasons away from being impact big-leaguers. They need to show they can handle the high minors before they enter the conversation to become next in a lineage of slugging Twins left fielders.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Keeping Kepler on the roster for one final go means the Twins have a bit of an overabundance of corner outfielders, in the short term. And so Wallner goes to left, Castro stays on the bench, and Larnach remains in Triple-A as an insurance policy, while Rodriguez and Gonzalez are free to develop in the minors unrushed. These are all good things, as far as the team is concerned – layers of depth to protect against injury or extreme regression. Larnach in particular is a luxury, a 27-year-old former first-rounder who has mashed in the minors and performed decently in the majors.
Even with Nick Gordon – who led the team in left field starts two years ago – shipped out, the Twins have plenty of current and future depth, with the addition of Margot rounding things out nicely. It will be very interesting to see how this position takes shape for Minnesota in the years ahead, because the likelihood of Wallner remaining here past 2024 feels very low.
Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:
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