Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospect: #3 Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF

Seems like just about everyone put Erod in one trade or another all winter long. Emmanuel has some work to do to prove that he can be a force at some future point in an MLB lineup. He needs to cut his k-rate and also show solid contact on some of those pitches he takes. Still, having watched a ton of his at bats last year Erod looks like the type of player who can make a huge difference to a team, at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. 2024 should reveal where he is headed because AA baseball can separate the players who can and cannot handle better pitching. I'm big on Erod and am willing to bet that his zone awareness and bat speed play in the Texas League. I'm hopeful for a month or so at St. Paul for Rodriguez.

I can understand the K-rate and not swinging often will be an issue, but it may be he is looking for pitches in certain areas and if he does not get it he will take it.  It could be he just needs to work on the plan at the plate to attack certain pitches.  If he starts taking too many pitches in the zone that are good pitches to hit that will become an issue.  However, you give him credit for not chasing, it could be he just will not swing at borderline pitches. 

Well, for the longer term we have five outstanding to reasonable outfield prospects to go along with Wallner, Martin, and theoretically Larnach. It’s unlikely any of the five - Jenkins (19)  ERod (21) Gabby (20) Winokur (19) and Rosario (21) - will break camp with the big club prior to 2026 at best due to level and age.

Let’s see how things go this season - there’s a lot going on in our outfield between Buxton’s health, Wallner’s sophomore year, Kepler’s assumed last stint with the team, and uncertain innings for Castro, Gordon, Martin, and Larnach.  We are definitely not long bankable outfield depth over the next two seasons.  But if Wallner and ideally one of Martin, Larnach or Gordon turn out ok, we should be in great shape after that.

Dude gives me some Ozzie Albies vibes. Good eye, excellent patience, can hit to all parts of the field...and with power. He might be a quick riser. 

His numbers definitely improved after June 1st last year.  His BAbip is on the higher side but not too surprising based on his exit velocity numbers.

A number of comments reminded me of what I posted numerous times in the past concerning Erod. It seems like he has moments where his concentration or attention is lost. I watched a few times where he took three pitches right down the middle and walked back to the dugout. Each of those times Cedar Rapids was ahead by multiple runs. It sure seemed like he didn't care and gave away at bats. Emmanuel may need a little maturation. Playing in AA (Wichita) and his presence on the 40 person roster as well as him perhaps being more aware of falling former top prospects may awake his drive to draw notice from the front office. I would hope to see increased concentration on a consistent basis. The upper minor leagues demand more of a player than the lower levels.

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Rodriguez is the kid I'm most fascinated by in the system. Probably the one I'll watch the most ABs for this year. He has such a sky-high ceiling that it's hard not to be excited for him, but his floor is so low it's really hard to have too much faith in him. The jump to AA will be super interesting to watch. Ball vs strike recognition is huge. It can be taught, but mostly only to an extent. Kids who have it naturally like Rodriguez seem to have a leg up on their peers from the jump. If he can tweak his approach a little and not "give away" so many at bats (in watching a handful of his games last year there were a number where he seemed overly passive to me) he could take off and blow through AA by mid-season. If he's too passive AA pitchers are going to start eating him up. Big test coming for Emma and I'm excited to see how it plays out. I love upside, and his is gigantic. I hope he puts some of the doubts about whether or not he can reach it to bed this year by dominating AA.

Same position, exactly. i will tune in to watch Wichita.

I haven't given up hope on ERod. He's not on any of my trades. AA will be a challenge for him because of the better pitchers but IMO in that challenge is where he'll find that balance that'll take him to the next level. IMO that adjustment is a minor one for him but he needs to be forced to make it.

He seems like the type of guy that wants to take on the biggest challenges. He is going to see more strikes early in the count this year and he will be crushing them. He just seems to have that extra star quality some guys lack. His bat speed and thump are simply impressive!  It sounds like his goal is a late season call up this year so if he does crush early in AA, don’t underestimate that he could be a starting COF in ‘25 with Buxton and Wallner. 

I like this batting style more than the Gabby one (prospect 3.5). I'm glad Julien had a successful year and can serve as a good template for.selective aggression. Fingers crossed, but it'll be interesting regardless.

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Clearly no one likes to see the strikeouts, but it doesn't seem to be a huge deterrent to many young players or the prospect wonks who rank them. His age  20 season is basically the same as last year's #1 prospect Gunnar Henderson. Except, better considering how much more E-Rod gets on base and that he was significantly better at high A ball than Henderson

 

 

 

Maybe we suffer from Sano syndrome. During Sano’s age 20 A+ season, he struck out less (and slashed better) than ERod…and Sano did so in a tougher environment (the FSL) for hitting than the Midwest league.

Having said that, Sano never developed really at all beyond age 22. If anything he regressed. And that doesn’t have to be the case for Rodriquez. We’ll see.

I had mentioned on a different post (a Doc Gast article) that early in the off season, while playing around with the BBTV site, I had included E-Rod in a number of trades to get that #2 SP.  His value "fit" into the deal I was trying to make.  But as I've read more about it him and chewed on that analysis I can see why the Twins probably never considered any trade with him in it.

His upside is just to good and this jump to AA is really important to track his development.  If he mashes at AA it would be a safe assumption to think he could do that at St. Paul, and then he's not long to being on a major league roster.  It's been pointed out that at this time, the Twins have good outfield prospects in the minor leagues but with this probably being the final year of Max Kepler in RF they are quite thin at the major league level, especially when you toss in the "Buxton Wildcard."

This year of development for E-Rod (I like E-Rod or Em-Rod FAR better than "Emma") as well as Jenkins, Gonzalez, Winekour and Rosario (as well as Austin Martin) will be key to filling some of those OF holes come 2025.  We could see   E-Rod up late this season.  If not, possibly fairly early in 2025.  Martin will be in the mix.  Kepler will have moved on with Wallner taking over RF.  E-Rod in LF/CF and Martin in CF/LF is possible.  Kirilloff and/or Larnach are possible corner OF going forward.  

This is a key year for development and there's always Walker Jenkins lurking.  I for one, believe he could move quickly through the Twins system.  

Emma is a heck of a prospect. He still has things to work on, but he's still so young, and the talent leaps off the page. It will be very interesting to see how his contact skills develop in AA, which should be a good challenge for him. Facing more advanced pitchers might actually help him, as there will be fewer guys he can simply wait out and get the walk. But he's been young for his level every step of the way and excelled at every level as well.

He finished last season very well, and I think it's fair to say that his early struggles were related to recovery and rust from the surgery. From June on, he was a monster but also pretty dang consistent. I'm impressed with how well he did against LHP last season; it's a small sample to be sure, but he clearly didn't have any trouble there and was actually better against LHP than RHP.

It's interesting to look at Rodriguez's 2023 against Julien's in 2021. Lots of patience, lots of Ks...more contact and power from Julien, but you have to also factor in that Julien was 2 years older and did it against Low A and High A whereas Rodriguez did it against high A alone. When you pull Rodriguez's first 2 months out of the equation, when he was still coming back from injury, the K-rates get fairly close. Julien's a great hitter who is doing wonderfully in MLB; look at where Rodriguez is at age 20. That kind of strike zone recognition is pretty remarkable.

It'll be interesting to see how much run he gets in CF this season; he's trending towards a corner spot, but he's got the bat to sustain that kind of shift. A great prospect, he's going to be in AA at 21 and has fantastic upside. The fact that he's easily #3 on our prospect rankings is pretty great as well, because he'd be a fine #1 overall prospect otherwise.

If E Rod can show what we think he can its not inconceivable that he could be called up in September. With Kepler likely moving on after 2024 it is a good chance that E Rod is starting in the Twins OF on opening day 2025. Just my opinion.

It seems to me that it would be easier to teach patient hitters to be more aggressive earlier in the count than to get aggressive hitters to be more patient. 

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, it would be a disappointment if the expectation is he's a star. It would put him more on track with being a good regular instead of being a star. You can think it sounds harsh, but that's just what history tells us. There is a difference between 3 year college players and guys who get to pro ball as teens. The speed with which you're able to jump levels matters when it comes to the expectations of ceiling.

Rodriguez starts using up options this year. If it takes him 2 more years before he's getting real playing time it changes his situation because then he's in his final option year and either needs to figure it out or you're looking at a Gordon situation. Stars generally don't take until they're out of options to figure it out. There's more to it than just age. Once you hit the 40-man roster things change. 

Of course he has some time to develop. I didn't say he'd be a lost cause or we should give up on him, but it very much changes his outlook if he has to go 1 level at a time through the minors. Stars don't do that. Maybe you don't see him as a star, and then it's totally fine if he keeps climbing 1 rung at a time season after season. But if your hope is that he's a star then, yes, taking 2 more years to hit the majors would be a disappointment. Wallner reached the majors before he had to be put on the 40-man. If Lee reaches it this year he'd accomplish that as well. Stars generally don't wait until their 3rd option year to reach the majors. I'm sorry if that sounds harsh, but it's the truth. If the expectation is Rodriguez is a star we should be expecting him to step foot between the lines at Target Field in 2024 or early 2025.

No question that Emmanuel elicits a variety of responses from trade high to hold at all costs. There are (understandably) a number of folks who have reservations on how well Rodriguez will show once he faces much better pitching. Articles, posts, comments, and those who put out videos have all questioned where ERod lands.

This season will be a huge tell for the young slugger. I'm expecting he gets  some time with the Saints and may be a late call up to the Twins. Among those on the spectrum, I am thinking ERod is a force in the Twins lineup out of Spring Training next year. i would be disappointed a little if he took until 2026 to be a lineup regular.

58 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

No question that Emmanuel elicits a variety of responses from trade high to hold at all costs. There are (understandably) a number of folks who have reservations on how well Rodriguez will show once he faces much better pitching. Articles, posts, comments, and those who put out videos have all questioned where ERod lands.

This season will be a huge tell for the young slugger. I'm expecting he gets  some time with the Saints and may be a late call up to the Twins. Among those on the spectrum, I am thinking ERod is a force in the Twins lineup out of Spring Training next year. i would be disappointed a little if he took until 2026 to be a lineup regular.

I would say this assessment is spot on. If we don't see Rodriguez up until 2026 sometime then  my estimation is that we have  next to nothing in this player. He's just a player and not a special one.

2024 is a huge year for him. 

Are expectations of a global MLB.com #42 prospect reasonable?

Go back 10 years and look at the 42s from 2014-2018. All of these players have had a chance to establish themselves.

2014 - Carl Edward’s Jr.

2015 - Michael A Taylor

2016 - Anthony Alford

2017 - Hunter Renfroe

2018 - Michel Baez

They are surrounded by Jorge Soler and AJ Puk in 2013 and 2019. If you expand to the 41s and 43s you will find Max Fried and little else.

If he needs three options years in order to become an average regular through his service time that will be a huge plus and better than most in that grouping. If he makes multiple all star teams he is with the top of this class.