Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospect: #3 Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF

[Jamie Cameron]

Emmanuel Rodríguez has cemented himself as a top-75 global prospect prior to the 2024 season. What’s next for ‘Emma’ and his potent combination of patience and power at the plate?

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

There might not be a louder total tool set in the Twins farm system than that of Emmanuel Rodriguez. That said, he has plenty of questions left to answer.

Age: 20 (DOB: 02/28/2003)
2023 Stats (A+): 455 PA, .240/.400/.463, 13 2B, 16 HR, 20 SB, 145 wRC+
ETA: 2025
2023 Ranking: 3

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: 53 | MLB: 42 | ATH: 47 | BP: 62

What’s to Like
After joining the Twins in the 2019 international signing period for a $2.5-million signing bonus, Rodríguez has vaulted himself onto top prospect lists, consistently occupying spaces between 40th and 75th overall. Bursting onto the scene at Low-A in 2022, Rodríguez turned heads with a gaudy 196 wRC+ in 47 games, before suffering a season-ending knee surgery in June. The Twins were confident about his availability for the 2023 season, and he produced quite the encore at High-A Cedar Rapids.

In 2023, Rodríguez turned the corner from intriguing to legitimate. After an atrocious start at Cedar Rapids, he slugged his way to a .240/.400/.468 line, with 16 home runs and 20 steals, all while maintaining a walk rate north of 20%. Rodríguez put up a 145 wRC+ in his age-20 season at High-A. That’s some production.

So, what are the skills behind these data? Incredible bat speed, for one. Rodríguez’s 90th-percentile exit velocity in 2023 was 109 mph, his max 117 mph. That’s ‘up there’ with the hardest hitters in MLB. He also possesses an exceptional eye at the plate. Rodríguez chased just 15% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2023. That’s Edouard Julien and Juan Soto territory. It’s hard not to be tantalized by that combination of power and swing decisions.

What’s Left to Work On
What about the final element of the big three of hitting, bat-to-ball skills? This is where Rodríguez gives you pause, or at least tempers expectations. In 2023, the Dominican slugger posted a Swing% of just 36.7%--borderline passive. Combine that with a Contact% of just 69%, (not that nice, really), and you have a potentially dangerous cocktail: an otherwise excellent hitter who doesn’t swing that much, and misses quite a bit when he does. That all added up to a 29.5% strikeout rate, which is concerning for a prospect about to make the challenging jump to Double A.

Rodríguez saw a whopping 4.29 pitches per plate appearance in 2023. Navigating the ‘patience versus passivity’ tension will likely help us zero in on what his eventual ceiling is. As Nick Nelson noted in January, if Rodríguez (like Julien) can become more aggressive early in counts to bypass some of the swing-and-miss in his game, look out. 

What’s Next:
Recently acquired Gabriel Gonzalez should fill the void left in the Cedar Rapids outfield by Rodríguez, who ought to start 2024 at Double-A Wichita. They form a beautifully asymmetrical pair of prospects and (with Walker Jenkins) make the outfield the position of strength in a solid Twins farm system. The transition from High A to Double A is often tough, and I’d expect Rodríguez to have some growing pains in 2024 as he faces better stuff and more consistent strike throwers. The power, on base skills, and the solid speed provide a higher floor than one might associate with a prospect like 'Emma'. If he can settle the patience versus passivity debate, you can look forward to locking him into your big-league lineup cards sooner than later.

Check back Monday to read about our pick for No. 2 on the list! For now, let's hear your thoughts on Emmanuel Rodríguez. Is he the real deal, or will his flaws be exploited in Double A?

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[tony&rodney]

Seems like just about everyone put Erod in one trade or another all winter long. Emmanuel has some work to do to prove that he can be a force at some future point in an MLB lineup. He needs to cut his k-rate and also show solid contact on some of those pitches he takes. Still, having watched a ton of his at bats last year Erod looks like the type of player who can make a huge difference to a team, at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. 2024 should reveal where he is headed because AA baseball can separate the players who can and cannot handle better pitching. I'm big on Erod and am willing to bet that his zone awareness and bat speed play in the Texas League. I'm hopeful for a month or so at St. Paul for Rodriguez.

[Trov]

I can understand the K-rate and not swinging often will be an issue, but it may be he is looking for pitches in certain areas and if he does not get it he will take it.  It could be he just needs to work on the plan at the plate to attack certain pitches.  If he starts taking too many pitches in the zone that are good pitches to hit that will become an issue.  However, you give him credit for not chasing, it could be he just will not swing at borderline pitches. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Well, for the longer term we have five outstanding to reasonable outfield prospects to go along with Wallner, Martin, and theoretically Larnach. It’s unlikely any of the five - Jenkins (19)  ERod (21) Gabby (20) Winokur (19) and Rosario (21) - will break camp with the big club prior to 2026 at best due to level and age.

Let’s see how things go this season - there’s a lot going on in our outfield between Buxton’s health, Wallner’s sophomore year, Kepler’s assumed last stint with the team, and uncertain innings for Castro, Gordon, Martin, and Larnach.  We are definitely not long bankable outfield depth over the next two seasons.  But if Wallner and ideally one of Martin, Larnach or Gordon turn out ok, we should be in great shape after that.

 

[cmoss84]

Dude gives me some Ozzie Albies vibes. Good eye, excellent patience, can hit to all parts of the field...and with power. He might be a quick riser. 

[SF Twins Fan]

His numbers definitely improved after June 1st last year.  His BAbip is on the higher side but not too surprising based on his exit velocity numbers.

[Dman]

I really like that he mainly swings at strikes.  It is generally the skill that separates players that can or cannot make the jump to MLB. It often is a skill that comes later for players. Since Rodriguez already has a good eye he has the potential to be an elite bat IMO.

On the other hand players with 30% K rates can have a tough making it as well.  Joey Gallo was able to draw walks and hit home runs, but a true 3 outcome player isn't exactly pretty.  From what I have read Rodriguez has trouble with certain parts of the zone and I have watched him have some ugly at bats.  So i get the concerns.

Still I think he adjusts and overcomes some of those limitations.  If he hadn't started so slow at High A it would have been another 900 OPS year for him. He sat in the top 5 in his league in most offensive categories and played decent defense in center.  So he has been very productive for a player younger than league average all the way up. If he can make a few more tweaks to the approach he will likely be an offensive force.  AA will be a tough adjustment for him.  Most of the best pitching prospect's hit that level with good to great breaking stuff. 

I am a believer though and like his chances to be a very good player at the MLB level.  This year should tell us quite a bit about where he is at. 

[tony&rodney]

A number of comments reminded me of what I posted numerous times in the past concerning Erod. It seems like he has moments where his concentration or attention is lost. I watched a few times where he took three pitches right down the middle and walked back to the dugout. Each of those times Cedar Rapids was ahead by multiple runs. It sure seemed like he didn't care and gave away at bats. Emmanuel may need a little maturation. Playing in AA (Wichita) and his presence on the 40 person roster as well as him perhaps being more aware of falling former top prospects may awake his drive to draw notice from the front office. I would hope to see increased concentration on a consistent basis. The upper minor leagues demand more of a player than the lower levels.

[chpettit19]

Rodriguez is the kid I'm most fascinated by in the system. Probably the one I'll watch the most ABs for this year. He has such a sky-high ceiling that it's hard not to be excited for him, but his floor is so low it's really hard to have too much faith in him. The jump to AA will be super interesting to watch. Ball vs strike recognition is huge. It can be taught, but mostly only to an extent. Kids who have it naturally like Rodriguez seems to have a leg up on their peers from the jump. If he can tweak his approach a little and not "give away" so many at bats (in watching a handful of his games last year there were a number where he seemed overly passive to me) he could take off and blow through AA by mid-season. If he's too passive AA pitchers are going to start eating him up. Big test coming for Emma and I'm excited to see how it plays out. I love upside, and his is gigantic. I hope he puts some of the doubts about whether or not he can reach it to bed this year by dominating AA.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Rodriguez is the kid I'm most fascinated by in the system. Probably the one I'll watch the most ABs for this year. He has such a sky-high ceiling that it's hard not to be excited for him, but his floor is so low it's really hard to have too much faith in him. The jump to AA will be super interesting to watch. Ball vs strike recognition is huge. It can be taught, but mostly only to an extent. Kids who have it naturally like Rodriguez seem to have a leg up on their peers from the jump. If he can tweak his approach a little and not "give away" so many at bats (in watching a handful of his games last year there were a number where he seemed overly passive to me) he could take off and blow through AA by mid-season. If he's too passive AA pitchers are going to start eating him up. Big test coming for Emma and I'm excited to see how it plays out. I love upside, and his is gigantic. I hope he puts some of the doubts about whether or not he can reach it to bed this year by dominating AA.

Same position, exactly. i will tune in to watch Wichita.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Same position, exactly. i will tune in to watch Wichita.

I always appreciate your breakdowns of prospects because you watch more games than I do of the younger teams, and you're always paying attention to more than just what their numbers are. So I'm counting on you to keep us all up to date on how he's looking as we get into the year!

[nicksaviking]

Clearly no one likes to see the strikeouts, but it doesn't seem to be a huge deterrent to many young players or the prospect wonks who rank them. His age  20 season is basically the same as last year's #1 prospect Gunnar Henderson. Except, better considering how much more E-Rod gets on base and that he was significantly better at high A ball than Henderson

 

 

 

[DocBauer]

He's a fascinating player to consider when you look at the floor vs ceiling outcome potential.

Interesting that he and Gonzalez have a similar but very different swing issue. One needs to hold back on swinging too much, and one might need to swing more, or at least earlier in the count.

Other than some highlight videos, I confess to not watching him live. So there's a lot of opinions here I like to read for their perspective. Emma feels like he's teetering on being Julien or being Gallo. By that I mean the Julien approach where you look for something to drive early, but work the count for a BB if that's what the pitcher gives you, and some K's are OK because of the hit/power/OB ability. In Gallo's case, he was virtually nothing but HR, BB, or K. In fact, late in the year, it seemed like Gallo was only going up to the plate hoping to take a walk.

I almost wonder if being at AA this next year, where the pitchers should have even better command, if that might not help him. Better control, more pitches around and in the zone might "force" him to identify pitches to swing at earlier in the count.

That's what I'm hoping for as his upside is tremendous.

[Doctor Gast]

I haven't given up hope on ERod. He's not on any of my trades. AA will be a challenge for him because of the better pitchers but IMO in that challenge is where he'll find that balance that'll take him to the next level. IMO that adjustment is a minor one for him but he needs to be forced to make it.

[gman]

I looking forward to Lee being shoe horned into the lineup this year, ERod next year and Jenkins in 2026.

[Fatbat]

He seems like the type of guy that wants to take on the biggest challenges. He is going to see more strikes early in the count this year and he will be crushing them. He just seems to have that extra star quality some guys lack. His bat speed and thump are simply impressive!  It sounds like his goal is a late season call up this year so if he does crush early in AA, don’t underestimate that he could be a starting COF in ‘25 with Buxton and Wallner. 

[awmonahan]

I like this batting style more than the Gabby one (prospect 3.5). I'm glad Julien had a successful year and can serve as a good template for.selective aggression. Fingers crossed, but it'll be interesting regardless.

[jkcarew]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Clearly no one likes to see the strikeouts, but it doesn't seem to be a huge deterrent to many young players or the prospect wonks who rank them. His age  20 season is basically the same as last year's #1 prospect Gunnar Henderson. Except, better considering how much more E-Rod gets on base and that he was significantly better at high A ball than Henderson

 

 

 

Maybe we suffer from Sano syndrome. During Sano’s age 20 A+ season, he struck out less (and slashed better) than ERod…and Sano did so in a tougher environment (the FSL) for hitting than the Midwest league.

Having said that, Sano never developed really at all beyond age 22. If anything he regressed. And that doesn’t have to be the case for Rodriquez. We’ll see.

 

 

 

[arby58]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

He's a fascinating player to consider when you look at the floor vs ceiling outcome potential.

Interesting that he and Gonzalez have a similar but very different swing issue. One needs to hold back on swinging too much, and one might need to swing more, or at least earlier in the count.

Other than some highlight videos, I confess to not watching him live. So there's a lot of opinions here I like to read for their perspective. Emma feels like he's teetering on being Julien or being Gallo. By that I mean the Julien approach where you look for something to drive early, but work the count for a BB if that's what the pitcher gives you, and some K's are OK because of the hit/power/OB ability. In Gallo's case, he was virtually nothing but HR, BB, or K. In fact, late in the year, it seemed like Gallo was only going up to the plate hoping to take a walk.

The point about Gallo last year is valid. It's too bad that Gallo's career fell off the table, because he had some really strong early years. 2017 and 2018 he averaged 40 HRs and 86 RBIs with OPS of .869 and .810 respectively. Then, in 2019, in just 241 AB, he had 22 HRs 49 RBI and an OPS of .986. It's easier to accept a lot of Ks when you're putting up those numbers.

[JD-TWINS]

He’s only 20 is what I take away the most. If he has the same stats with no media/TD fans player ranking & expectations, he’d be a really promising “young guy” in the system……..1975 speak.

Anyway, if he’s at AA all year and strikes out a little less while maintaining a similar OBP of .375 plus, down due to a few more swings - being a bit more aggressive……….that’s great progress. End of Kepler’s deal & Buxton’s dubious availability shouldn’t influence this kid’s timing to the Show. AAA in ‘25, with maybe a late call up in September seems to be pretty fast track to me.

I thought for the past 8-9 months that he was 22 or so due to the predictions/talk of him coming up late ‘24. Coming to Spring Training with high hopes in ‘26 at age 22 seems to be a fairly aggressive progression to me!

[TopGunn#22]

I had mentioned on a different post (a Doc Gast article) that early in the off season, while playing around with the BBTV site, I had included E-Rod in a number of trades to get that #2 SP.  His value "fit" into the deal I was trying to make.  But as I've read more about it him and chewed on that analysis I can see why the Twins probably never considered any trade with him in it.

His upside is just to good and this jump to AA is really important to track his development.  If he mashes at AA it would be a safe assumption to think he could do that at St. Paul, and then he's not long to being on a major league roster.  It's been pointed out that at this time, the Twins have good outfield prospects in the minor leagues but with this probably being the final year of Max Kepler in RF they are quite thin at the major league level, especially when you toss in the "Buxton Wildcard."

This year of development for E-Rod (I like E-Rod or Em-Rod FAR better than "Emma") as well as Jenkins, Gonzalez, Winekour and Rosario (as well as Austin Martin) will be key to filling some of those OF holes come 2025.  We could see   E-Rod up late this season.  If not, possibly fairly early in 2025.  Martin will be in the mix.  Kepler will have moved on with Wallner taking over RF.  E-Rod in LF/CF and Martin in CF/LF is possible.  Kirilloff and/or Larnach are possible corner OF going forward.  

This is a key year for development and there's always Walker Jenkins lurking.  I for one, believe he could move quickly through the Twins system.  

[jmlease1]

Emma is a heck of a prospect. He still has things to work on, but he's still so young, and the talent leaps off the page. It will be very interesting to see how his contact skills develop in AA, which should be a good challenge for him. Facing more advanced pitchers might actually help him, as there will be fewer guys he can simply wait out and get the walk. But he's been young for his level every step of the way and excelled at every level as well.

He finished last season very well, and I think it's fair to say that his early struggles were related to recovery and rust from the surgery. From June on, he was a monster but also pretty dang consistent. I'm impressed with how well he did against LHP last season; it's a small sample to be sure, but he clearly didn't have any trouble there and was actually better against LHP than RHP.

It's interesting to look at Rodriguez's 2023 against Julien's in 2021. Lots of patience, lots of Ks...more contact and power from Julien, but you have to also factor in that Julien was 2 years older and did it against Low A and High A whereas Rodriguez did it against high A alone. When you pull Rodriguez's first 2 months out of the equation, when he was still coming back from injury, the K-rates get fairly close. Julien's a great hitter who is doing wonderfully in MLB; look at where Rodriguez is at age 20. That kind of strike zone recognition is pretty remarkable.

It'll be interesting to see how much run he gets in CF this season; he's trending towards a corner spot, but he's got the bat to sustain that kind of shift. A great prospect, he's going to be in AA at 21 and has fantastic upside. The fact that he's easily #3 on our prospect rankings is pretty great as well, because he'd be a fine #1 overall prospect otherwise.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s only 20 is what I take away the most. If he has the same stats with no media/TD fans player ranking & expectations, he’d be a really promising “young guy” in the system……..1975 speak.

Anyway, if he’s at AA all year and strikes out a little less while maintaining a similar OBP of .375 plus, down due to a few more swings - being a bit more aggressive……….that’s great progress. End of Kepler’s deal & Buxton’s dubious availability shouldn’t influence this kid’s timing to the Show. AAA in ‘25, with maybe a late call up in September seems to be pretty fast track to me.

I thought for the past 8-9 months that he was 22 or so due to the predictions/talk of him coming up late ‘24. Coming to Spring Training with high hopes in ‘26 at age 22 seems to be a fairly aggressive progression to me!

Judging the "speed" of his progression really is about the likelihood to reach his ceiling. Taking until his 3rd option year to really earn a chance would mean he's likely continued to struggle with his contact rates and hasn't made "the jump." Once prospects of his stature hit AA the expectations are that they aren't going station to station year by year through the upper minors. 

Kepler's deal and Buxton's availability concerns shouldn't play any role whatsoever in Emma's progression beyond possibly providing openings on the MLB roster. A 2025 September call up for his first MLB action would be a little slow in terms of him being a possible elite player. Not overly concerning by any means, but an entire season at both AA and AAA would be a disappointment in some sense and dampen his outlook a bit. I think the hope should be a solid push for real ABs in 2025 without having our opinions of him crater if that doesn't happen.

[sweetmusicviola16]

If E Rod can show what we think he can its not inconceivable that he could be called up in September. With Kepler likely moving on after 2024 it is a good chance that E Rod is starting in the Twins OF on opening day 2025. Just my opinion.

[Otaknam]

It seems to me that it would be easier to teach patient hitters to be more aggressive earlier in the count than to get aggressive hitters to be more patient. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Judging the "speed" of his progression really is about the likelihood to reach his ceiling. Taking until his 3rd option year to really earn a chance would mean he's likely continued to struggle with his contact rates and hasn't made "the jump." Once prospects of his stature hit AA the expectations are that they aren't going station to station year by year through the upper minors. 

Kepler's deal and Buxton's availability concerns shouldn't play any role whatsoever in Emma's progression beyond possibly providing openings on the MLB roster. A 2025 September call up for his first MLB action would be a little slow in terms of him being a possible elite player. Not overly concerning by any means, but an entire season at both AA and AAA would be a disappointment in some sense and dampen his outlook a bit. I think the hope should be a solid push for real ABs in 2025 without having out opinions of him crater if that doesn't happen.

So, if he were a 3 year college player that was now 22, his path forward should be AA this Spring  - AAA by August or for sure next April, or a disappointment in progress. (basically, a Brooks Lee progression) He’s 20 though. Being in the Show at 22 or a disappointment in his progress/development  seems harsh to me. 

Wallner got his first taste of the Show at 24………..Lee has a pretty good pedigree to date through his college years and draft pick status - he’s starting in AAA at age 23 and he’s the next guy on the Prospect List. 

Seems Rodriguez has plenty of time to develop!

[chpettit19]

56 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, if he were a 3 year college player that was now 22, his path forward should be AA this Spring  - AAA by August or for sure next April, or a disappointment in progress. (basically, a Brooks Lee progression) He’s 20 though. Being in the Show at 22 or a disappointment in his progress/development  seems harsh to me. 

Wallner got his first taste of the Show at 24………..Lee has a pretty good pedigree to date through his college years and draft pick status - he’s starting in AAA at age 23 and he’s the next guy on the Prospect List. 

Seems Rodriguez has plenty of time to develop!

Yes, it would be a disappointment if the expectation is he's a star. It would put him more on track with being a good regular instead of being a star. You can think it sounds harsh, but that's just what history tells us. There is a difference between 3 year college players and guys who get to pro ball as teens. The speed with which you're able to jump levels matters when it comes to the expectations of ceiling.

Rodriguez starts using up options this year. If it takes him 2 more years before he's getting real playing time it changes his situation because then he's in his final option year and either needs to figure it out or you're looking at a Gordon situation. Stars generally don't take until they're out of options to figure it out. There's more to it than just age. Once you hit the 40-man roster things change. 

Of course he has some time to develop. I didn't say he'd be a lost cause or we should give up on him, but it very much changes his outlook if he has to go 1 level at a time through the minors. Stars don't do that. Maybe you don't see him as a star, and then it's totally fine if he keeps climbing 1 rung at a time season after season. But if your hope is that he's a star then, yes, taking 2 more years to hit the majors would be a disappointment. Wallner reached the majors before he had to be put on the 40-man. If Lee reaches it this year he'd accomplish that as well. Stars generally don't wait until their 3rd option year to reach the majors. I'm sorry if that sounds harsh, but it's the truth. If the expectation is Rodriguez is a star we should be expecting him to step foot between the lines at Target Field in 2024 or early 2025.

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, it would be a disappointment if the expectation is he's a star. It would put him more on track with being a good regular instead of being a star. You can think it sounds harsh, but that's just what history tells us. There is a difference between 3 year college players and guys who get to pro ball as teens. The speed with which you're able to jump levels matters when it comes to the expectations of ceiling.

Rodriguez starts using up options this year. If it takes him 2 more years before he's getting real playing time it changes his situation because then he's in his final option year and either needs to figure it out or you're looking at a Gordon situation. Stars generally don't take until they're out of options to figure it out. There's more to it than just age. Once you hit the 40-man roster things change. 

Of course he has some time to develop. I didn't say he'd be a lost cause or we should give up on him, but it very much changes his outlook if he has to go 1 level at a time through the minors. Stars don't do that. Maybe you don't see him as a star, and then it's totally fine if he keeps climbing 1 rung at a time season after season. But if your hope is that he's a star then, yes, taking 2 more years to hit the majors would be a disappointment. Wallner reached the majors before he had to be put on the 40-man. If Lee reaches it this year he'd accomplish that as well. Stars generally don't wait until their 3rd option year to reach the majors. I'm sorry if that sounds harsh, but it's the truth. If the expectation is Rodriguez is a star we should be expecting him to step foot between the lines at Target Field in 2024 or early 2025.

No question that Emmanuel elicits a variety of responses from trade high to hold at all costs. There are (understandably) a number of folks who have reservations on how well Rodriguez will show once he faces much better pitching. Articles, posts, comments, and those who put out videos have all questioned where ERod lands.

This season will be a huge tell for the young slugger. I'm expecting he gets  some time with the Saints and may be a late call up to the Twins. Among those on the spectrum, I am thinking ERod is a force in the Twins lineup out of Spring Training next year. i would be disappointed a little if he took until 2026 to be a lineup regular.

[sweetmusicviola16]

58 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

No question that Emmanuel elicits a variety of responses from trade high to hold at all costs. There are (understandably) a number of folks who have reservations on how well Rodriguez will show once he faces much better pitching. Articles, posts, comments, and those who put out videos have all questioned where ERod lands.

This season will be a huge tell for the young slugger. I'm expecting he gets  some time with the Saints and may be a late call up to the Twins. Among those on the spectrum, I am thinking ERod is a force in the Twins lineup out of Spring Training next year. i would be disappointed a little if he took until 2026 to be a lineup regular.

I would say this assessment is spot on. If we don't see Rodriguez up until 2026 sometime then  my estimation is that we have  next to nothing in this player. He's just a player and not a special one.

2024 is a huge year for him. 

[jorgenswest]

Are expectations of a global MLB.com #42 prospect reasonable?

Go back 10 years and look at the 42s from 2014-2018. All of these players have had a chance to establish themselves.

2014 - Carl Edward’s Jr.

2015 - Michael A Taylor

2016 - Anthony Alford

2017 - Hunter Renfroe

2018 - Michel Baez

They are surrounded by Jorge Soler and AJ Puk in 2013 and 2019. If you expand to the 41s and 43s you will find Max Fried and little else.

If he needs three options years in order to become an average regular through his service time that will be a huge plus and better than most in that grouping. If he makes multiple all star teams he is with the top of this class.