Oberdrive: Bailey Ober Looks to Up His Game and Boost Top of Rotation

FT. MYERS, FL – Bailey Ober was better than you think last year. There seems to be a widespread perception that he was a fine mid-rotation starter, but little more. Opening the season in the minors, and getting sent back down in August, may play a role in that perception, along with his strikeout rate looking pedestrian compared to the likes of Pablo López and Joe Ryan. But when you take a step back and look at the overall numbers, Ober was fantastic: a true top-of-rotation starter from a production perspective.

Only 17 pitchers in the major leagues threw 140 or more innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better in 2023. Ober was one of them. What more could you want from a No. 2 starter? 

Maybe that's why, when asked about how Ober can improve and take the next step this season, manager Rocco Baldelli finds it tough to summon an answer.

"Bailey’s a difficult one to talk about in that conversation because he does a lot of different things really well, and has from truly the day he walked in the door at the big-league level," Baldelli said after Ober's latest start against Toronto on Thursday. "Could he go from exceptional to very exceptional? It's like, I don't know, maybe."

Possibly, Baldelli too has taken notice of the way Ober seems to be underrated in discussions of the Twins rotation and its caliber. As the Twins skipper points out, Ober has already made a lot of the necessary adjustments and improvements necessary to unlock the success he had last year. So it might be more about sustaining than gaining for the big righty. 

Still, it's hard to overlook how much pressure is on him, along with Ryan and Chris Paddack, to help fill the void of Sonny Gray's loss. And for as good as Ober was, there are a couple of key areas in which he has a chance to up his game. Fortunately, there have been promising signs on both fronts.

The first is fastball velocity. While it plays up for hitters due to Ober's extension and release point, his four-seamer averaged just 91.3 MPH last year, which ranked in the 13th percentile among all major-league starters. The pitch still worked for him, holding opponents to a .306 xwOBA, in part because – as mentioned – it feels like it's coming in harder since he releases it so close to the plate. (Known as perceived velocity.) But this underscores how much more effective that pitch could be if he can add just a couple ticks.

Encouragingly, Ober threw a fastball earlier this spring that registered as his fastest ever measured by Statcast (94.8 MPH). He's been in the 92-93 MPH range quite often, including the first couple innings of Thursday's start, though there was a noticeable dropoff thereafter. It should be noted that Ober also flashed increased velo last spring but it didn't carry over to the regular season. 

Ober doesn't see any secret formula to keeping his fastball in the 92-93 range deeper into starts and through the season. It's a matter of staying healthy, putting his work in, and not overthinking it. "My movement and mechanics are gonna take care of the rest," he said. "I feel like whenever it’s coming out good is when I’m not thinking as much out there and it’s just coming natural."

The other area where Ober is aiming to level up his repertoire is the addition of a new breaking ball, potentially to replace his slider, which got hit harder than any other pitch last year (.320 xwOBA). Statcast classifies the new pitch as a cutter, though some people view it as simply a harder slider than the 81-MPH version he used in 2023. "Whatever you want to call it. Something that's hard and goes to the left," Ober said earlier this spring.

He's been using it plentifully in spring action as he attempts to "have it pretty dialed in and consistent when the season starts." In his latest outing he threw more cutters (nine) than curveballs and sliders combined (five). The same was true in his previous starts this spring. Averaging around 85 MPH, the cutter gives hitters a harder offspeed pitch to complement his outstanding changeup and big slow curveball. A new go-to breaking ball for Ober?

"We'll see what it turns into," he said. "We’ll see what the hitters keep telling us. It’ll be good to have both to play with. Something softer with bigger movement, and then something that’s a little bit harder."

Circumstances have changed dramatically for Ober in one year's time. Last spring he was the odd man out in a crowded rotation; now he's an essential fixture in their starting pitching mix, and maybe the team's best chance for a legitimate No. 2 behind López. 

Fastball velocity and the success of his cutter will be key things to watch early in the season as he looks to add the finishing touches to his already impressive game. While it might be a tall order (pun intended), Ober going from exceptional to very exceptional might be just what the Twins rotation needs to maintain the latter distinction in Gray's absence.