Oberdrive: Bailey Ober Looks to Up His Game and Boost Top of Rotation

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins are relying on internal improvement to help offset the loss of Sonny Gray atop the rotation. Bailey Ober, with a few new tricks up his sleeve, might be their best hope to emerge as a frontliner alongside ace Pablo López.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

FT. MYERS, FL – Bailey Ober was better than you think last year. There seems to be a widespread perception that he was a fine mid-rotation starter, but little more. Opening the season in the minors, and getting sent back down in August, may play a role in that perception, along with his strikeout rate looking pedestrian compared to the likes of Pablo López and Joe Ryan. But when you take a step back and look at the overall numbers, Ober was fantastic: a true top-of-rotation starter from a production perspective.

Only 17 pitchers in the major leagues threw 140 or more innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better in 2023. Ober was one of them. What more could you want from a No. 2 starter? 

Maybe that's why, when asked about how Ober can improve and take the next step this season, manager Rocco Baldelli finds it tough to summon an answer.

"Bailey’s a difficult one to talk about in that conversation because he does a lot of different things really well, and has from truly the day he walked in the door at the big-league level," Baldelli said after Ober's latest start against Toronto on Thursday. "Could he go from exceptional to very exceptional? It's like, I don't know, maybe."

Possibly, Baldelli too has taken notice of the way Ober seems to be underrated in discussions of the Twins rotation and its caliber. As the Twins skipper points out, Ober has already made a lot of the necessary adjustments and improvements necessary to unlock the success he had last year. So it might be more about sustaining than gaining for the big righty. 

Still, it's hard to overlook how much pressure is on him, along with Ryan and Chris Paddack, to help fill the void of Sonny Gray's loss. And for as good as Ober was, there are a couple of key areas in which he has a chance to up his game. Fortunately, there have been promising signs on both fronts.

The first is fastball velocity. While it plays up for hitters due to Ober's extension and release point, his four-seamer averaged just 91.3 MPH last year, which ranked in the 13th percentile among all major-league starters. The pitch still worked for him, holding opponents to a .306 xwOBA, in part because – as mentioned – it feels like it's coming in harder since he releases it so close to the plate. (Known as perceived velocity.) But this underscores how much more effective that pitch could be if he can add just a couple ticks.

 

Encouragingly, Ober threw a fastball earlier this spring that registered as his fastest ever measured by Statcast (94.8 MPH). He's been in the 92-93 MPH range quite often, including the first couple innings of Thursday's start, though there was a noticeable dropoff thereafter. It should be noted that Ober also flashed increased velo last spring but it didn't carry over to the regular season. 

Ober doesn't see any secret formula to keeping his fastball in the 92-93 range deeper into starts and through the season. It's a matter of staying healthy, putting his work in, and not overthinking it. "My movement and mechanics are gonna take care of the rest," he said. "I feel like whenever it’s coming out good is when I’m not thinking as much out there and it’s just coming natural."

The other area where Ober is aiming to level up his repertoire is the addition of a new breaking ball, potentially to replace his slider, which got hit harder than any other pitch last year (.320 xwOBA). Statcast classifies the new pitch as a cutter, though some people view it as simply a harder slider than the 81-MPH version he used in 2023. "Whatever you want to call it. Something that's hard and goes to the left," Ober said earlier this spring.

 

He's been using it plentifully in spring action as he attempts to "have it pretty dialed in and consistent when the season starts." In his latest outing he threw more cutters (nine) than curveballs and sliders combined (five). The same was true in his previous starts this spring. Averaging around 85 MPH, the cutter gives hitters a harder offspeed pitch to complement his outstanding changeup and big slow curveball. A new go-to breaking ball for Ober?

"We'll see what it turns into," he said. "We’ll see what the hitters keep telling us. It’ll be good to have both to play with. Something softer with bigger movement, and then something that’s a little bit harder."

Circumstances have changed dramatically for Ober in one year's time. Last spring he was the odd man out in a crowded rotation; now he's an essential fixture in their starting pitching mix, and maybe the team's best chance for a legitimate No. 2 behind López. 

Fastball velocity and the success of his cutter will be key things to watch early in the season as he looks to add the finishing touches to his already impressive game. While it might be a tall order (pun intended), Ober going from exceptional to very exceptional might be just what the Twins rotation needs to maintain the latter distinction in Gray's absence.

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[Fezig]

I'll take Crash's view.

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/9011fde1-76ab-462b-b166-b55eadc004b6

[blindeke]

It ain't Ober til it's Ober.

[big dog]

"Only 17 pitchers in the major leagues threw 140 or more innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better in 2023. "

That stat blew my mind.  I had no idea it was such a small number.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO this year is Ober's defining year. Will he pass Ryan as MN's #2? IMO Ober will take a step forward but will he or Ryan take a big enough step to shine in the postseason is yet to be seen. I don't care actually how many innings they're able to pitch or even great they are during the season, I do care that they'll pitch at the top of their game to become that SP  we need coming postseason along side Lopez.

[GKuehl]

I’m curious to see who we start for the 2nd game of the year. It’s likely a choice between Ryan and Ober, and I’d go with Ober. 

[JD-TWINS]

Ober or Ryan as “the #2” …….who cares? They pitch every 5th game and need to be competitive, that’s it……..they face who they face. So much wondering and angst over a pretty trivial thing that nobody will discuss by June, IMO.

Ryan & Ober both rely on command v. velocity. I like they are both working on a “better” pitch. If they command the fastball and Ober has developed a cutter to go along with his change-up he’ll be very good. Ryan has supposedly developed a sinker to go with his sweeper……if he throws high fastball strikes the other two pitches will play.

Lamenting the “production” of Sonny Gray being gone is really old, IMO. Last time from me, TEAM was 14-18 in his starts. There is no advancing deeper into the playoffs due to a low ERA during the season. He was fortunate to pick a guy off in the Toronto playoff game to escape a jam - good baseball play (kudos) - not much to do with ERA. He did not pitch well at all v. Astros in playoffs! I don’t dislike Gray & he will be missed from a competitive spirit standpoint and occasionally when a starter is getting hammered. The TEAM results are what need to be replicated or bettered. IMO Varland/Festa/SWR (assuming worst case & we never see DeScla) can pitch the TEAM to a .500 record, even if their combined ERA is 4.15 v. Gray’s 2.79.

Better offense is anticipated (even a bit better) and the Pen is 10-11 guys deep…….this uptick in TEAM performance should net the Twins a few more wins than ‘23, even without Sonny.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, big dog said:

"Only 17 pitchers in the major leagues threw 140 or more innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better in 2023. "

That stat blew my mind.  I had no idea it was such a small number.

The number of pitchers who have consistently done it over the last 3 years is about 9. This is the reason it is so hard to find pitching in the trade market. They do not exist. A team needs to identify a pitcher on another team that with a little boost can be that  pitcher and have something the other team needs or wants. They got lucky last year, unlucky the year before with acquisitions.  

[mikelink45]

He is a great story and I hope he continues to prosper.  We have had a lot of pitchers like Viola, Goltz, Perry that did not seem as flashy as the strikeout artists but really produced.  I will take them.

[Gamblerssoftball]

If Pablo pitches 180, Ryan and Ober each get 130, and Paddack gets to 100 innings, then we're in pretty good shape. Add in the bullpen depth and fill in starts from Varland (this year's Ober), and I get fairly optimistic. 

The offense looks to be a bit better, just in the fact that Buxton, Lewis,  and Correa are looking healthy and ready to go. Rocco has to be feeling pretty darn good compared to just one year ago.

[saviking]

Ober has been successful every step of his journey 

[PatPfund]

Good to hear about the new pitch. One unmentioned way for Ober to exceed last year is to up the innings pitched while maintaining the quality. Last year was a record IP year for Bailey, and it included the late trip to the minors after he looked like he hit a fatigue wall.

No complaints about last year's usage, but if he can stay healthy another 20-35 innings might come pretty naturally, and would be a big lift.

[gman]

I'd like to see Ober maintain last years performance but up his load to 180 innings. That should get him to #2.

[joefish]

Does saying that there is pressure on Ober to perform make it truer than for any other player?  I don't think so.

[ToddlerHarmon]

7 hours ago, blindeke said:

It ain't Ober til it's Ober.

Roger that

 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

On 3/18/2024 at 8:12 AM, blindeke said:

It ain't Ober til it's Ober.

I appreciate a good. tautology as much as anyone, but if this is advocating moving him to a the closer role, (or  perhaps he only pitches complete games?)  i shall be sad.