Twins Video
Randy Dobnak has been named the St. Paul Saints starter for the home opener. Then, after exactly the kind of twist we should have learned to expect from his career, inclement weather delayed that opener, and when it came, David Festa got the honor of toeing the rubber first. Dobnak responded with four superb innings as Festa' piggyback partner Saturday, though. Could it be the first step of a journey back to the big leagues?
There’s no need to deep dive into what transpired with the payroll and roster this winter. The summary of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda departing and not being effectively replaced is all that matters for Dobnak. While it’s fair to hope that Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack can pick up a lot of the slack, the Twins will need more than the five starters in the Opening Day rotation, regardless of how well the campaign goes. As of Saturday, we have official confirmation that Anthony DeSclafani won't be among the shock troops, as he's set for a season-ending surgery. The rotation depth chart beyond the MLB level is an assortment of names with upside, but there’s no Ober or Louie Varland type like last year. We’re likely to see several arms get an opportunity.
Dobnak is a different pitcher from the one we saw in 2019 and 2020. His bowling ball sinker, which was once an equalizer to any and all hitters, hasn’t been the same since the finger injury that ultimately cost him his roster spot. He’s reinvented himself, leaning more on his offspeed pitches and mixing in a four-seam fastball. His ERA over 5.00 in St. Paul last season may not be impressive, but his ability to limit the long ball is still a plus skill; he yielded just 12 homers in 126+ innings. Reports say that Dobnak has returned to the 93-MPH heat we saw from him at his peak. Indeed, though he only threw a few of the four-seamers Saturday, that was his average velocity on them.
It would be easy to say that arms such as Simeon Woods-Richardson or Brent Headrick should get the first crack at an opportunity with the Twins due to their youth and theoretical long-term upside, and they're certainly ahead of him in line, given their possession of 40-man spots already. It’s worth noting, perhaps, that these two had similar struggles in Triple-A to Dobnak's recent ones. They may have the advantage regarding long-term team control, but Dobnak is due another $6.25 million over the next three years. While this amount (hopefully) won’t hold the Twins back financially in the coming years, Dobnak getting an opportunity and making a resurgence of any kind is in the best interest of all involved. What does Dobnak need to do to earn another shot?
It’s hard to argue that Dobnak’s ability to limit homers will translate well to MLB, but his most significant issue in 2023 was issuing free passes. His walk rate over 10% was the worst he’s posted for any sustained period of his career. He’ll never be one to post strong strikeout rates, but if he can get back to the 5.5% career rate he put up before the injury to pair with his home run suppression, those two skills would likely be enough to find some success at the MLB level once again. To that end, the absence of any walks in his line is more important than the presence of six strikeouts Saturday.
We know what a successful Dobnak looks like. Even if the run he went on to begin his career was unsustainable, his skills were enough for the Twins to invest a bit in his ability to contribute at the major-league level. His health in 2023 was probably the most essential part of his performance, and if he can build off of the adjustments he made last season, there will be plenty of opportunity for him at Target Field in 2024.
It would be difficult to find a single Twins fan not rooting for Dobnak to earn another shot. One of the best stories in MLB in recent years, the former independent-ball pitcher and Uber driver still holds a place in the hearts of many in Twins Territory. Should he get another shot?
Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis
- DannySD, Dman, The Mad King and 5 others
-
8







Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now