What Does the Rotation Depth Chart Look Like After Louie Varland?

[1985Fan]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The lack of news on Clevinger is odd. The Mets had a starter go down and they are supposedly talking with Julio Teheran.  No one is reported to be negotiating or talking to Clevinger at all.  He turned down a $12m option if memory serves. Maybe he just wants too much money? 

That must be the reason. He should be ready to accept less now that the season has started. Given that Falvine negotiated  a raise for Gallo last year after he was DFA’d twice the year before, it’s likely Twins offer would be in the $15M/year range 😀 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Blaming the ownership for Falvey's spending habits is cruel. It's like giving a college kid $100 for groceries and stuff for the week only for them to spend $95 on a vintage mushroom lamp that looks cool in the dorm room.

I hope this is sarcasm, considering Pohlad's comments over the winter.  The Polanco trade was more of a statement on ownership than the FO.

[by jiminy]

What about Sands and Winder? They have to be rotation candidates ahead of Cory Lewis.

[CoachDW]

Mike Clevinger is going to re-sign with the White Sox on a one-year deal, according to MLB Trade Rumors. That would have been a nice additon for starting pitching depth for the Twins. It will be interesting to find out how much he is signing for. 

[nicksaviking]

I'd guess Headrick than SWR in that order. If/when they go beyond the 40-man, my dark horse is Pierson Ohl. Obviously he doesn't have the upside of Festa, but he appears to have great command which most of the other names struggle with to some degree. I could see him jumping the other guys in AAA if he continues to avoid giving away free passes while Festa still struggles with them. And he threw 127 innings last year so he should be ready for a good sized workload.

Fewer strikeouts, but based on the other numbers, his age, his progression and his lack of prospect regard, he looks pretty similar to Bailey Ober, minus Ober's lost COVID year.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

That must be the reason. He should be ready to accept less now that the season has started. Given that Falvine negotiated  a raise for Gallo last year after he was DFA’d twice the year before, it’s likely Twins offer would be in the $15M/year range 😀 

Well, news just broke that Clevinger signed wiht the White Sox of all teams. The terms were not disclosed. Why he would go to a bottom dweller is a bit of a mystery. We may find out when we find out the terms. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I hope this is sarcasm, considering Pohlad's comments over the winter.  The Polanco trade was more of a statement on ownership than the FO.

Polanco was totally redundant, almost 15x more expensive than his replacement, and keeping him on the roster would have been beyond incompetent.  It was universally surprising to analysts Farmer remained on the Twins as well. It was 100% expected Farmer would be signed/traded or non-tendered as he's viewed as a utility infielder. Kepler was also expected to be highly likely to be traded if the Twins needed the payroll capacity, which certainly COULD have been done had the Twins moved Wallner to RF and pushed Kirilloff to LF instead of declaring Kirilloff a lost cause in the outfield.

Vazquez $10MM (Camargo)
Farmer $6MM (Severino, Martin, Castro, Miranda)
Santana $5MM (Kirilloff, Severino, Miranda) 
Desclafani $4MM (Varland, Woods-Richardson, Headrick)
Margot $4MM (Castro, Martin)
That's $29MM spent when existing 40 man options at $3.5MM could replace 100% of the expected production directly.

Management's job is to work efficiently within a budget. Falvey squandered his budget adding middling value depth for $20MM.

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/joe-pohlad-says-twins-wont-splash-cash-on-big-free-agent

Quote

"What I will say about some flexibility is, when Derek (Falvey) and his team think there is the right opportunity in front of us, we don't live hard and fast by a specific number," Pohlad added. "That said, we're not going to spend $30 million on a player right now."

 

[Major League Ready]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Polanco was totally redundant, almost 15x more expensive than his replacement, and keeping him on the roster would have been beyond incompetent.  It was universally surprising to analysts Farmer remained on the Twins as well. It was 100% expected Farmer would be signed/traded or non-tendered as he's viewed as a utility infielder. Kepler was also expected to be highly likely to be traded if the Twins needed the payroll capacity, which certainly COULD have been done had the Twins moved Wallner to RF and pushed Kirilloff to LF instead of declaring Kirilloff a lost cause in the outfield.

Vazquez $10MM (Camargo)
Farmer $6MM (Severino, Martin, Castro, Miranda)
Santana $5MM (Kirilloff, Severino, Miranda) 
Desclafani $4MM (Varland, Woods-Richardson, Headrick)
Margot $4MM (Castro, Martin)
That's $29MM spent when existing 40 man options at $3.5MM could replace 100% of the expected production directly.

Management's job is to work efficiently within a budget. Falvey squandered his budget adding middling value depth for $20MM.

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/joe-pohlad-says-twins-wont-splash-cash-on-big-free-agent

 

I agree with you on Polanco and I was of that frame of mind since the end of last season.  However, I don't think it makes sense to include Vazquez in this discussion.  He was needed at the time and the signing what pretty much universally supported here.  So, we are really talking about a total of $19M for depth.  That's not exactly big money.  Those players are not just depth, they are all good as short side platoon players. 

I am not sure what to think about DeSclafani.  It's just nearly so clear as people like to make it,  We don't know how he was progressing.  They mighty of thought he was a long-short or he might have been looking fully recovered.  Either way, I think we had to take him in that deal and they obviously did not have better offers for Polanco.  That said, I would have been OK rolling with the guys you listed and signed Lorenzen or similar.  My guess is the twins might have done that had thought they could get these guys on a 1 year deal.  I bet they were holding out for multi-year deals.   I would not wanted them use up budget for next year and clog up the rotation with back-end guys.  They can always pivot at the deadline if the many other question marks of this team or answered in as positive light.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

...So, we are really talking about a total of $19M for depth.  That's not exactly big money.  Those players are not just depth, they are all good as short side platoon players...

It's not that depth is bad or spending $20MM on depth is bad. Lots of quality depth was a luxury this year. Those depth guys would have been replaced directly by options on the 40 man or in AAA for $760k a year.
2024 Salaries for some free agents
$2.5MM J.D. Martinez
$10MM Sonny Gray
$16MM Matt Chapman
$25MM Jordan Montgomery
$32MM Blake Snell

In terms of 2024 salary (when the salary crunch is on) the Twins brought in Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot instead of Sonny Gray and J.D. Martinez as an hypothetical example. That's where my issue lays.

[USAFChief]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

(A) Polanco was totally redundant...

 

(B) It was 100% expected Farmer would be signed/traded or non-tendered as he's viewed as a utility infielder.

 

A) we had Manny Margot at DH in a game already, yet Polanco was totally redundant??

 

(B) 100 percent? Stop it. 

 

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's not that depth is bad or spending $20MM on depth is bad. Lots of quality depth was a luxury this year. Those depth guys would have been replaced directly by options on the 40 man or in AAA for $760k a year.
2024 Salaries for some free agents
$2.5MM J.D. Martinez
$10MM Sonny Gray
$16MM Matt Chapman
$25MM Jordan Montgomery
$32MM Blake Snell

In terms of 2024 salary (when the salary crunch is on) the Twins brought in Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot instead of Sonny Gray and J.D. Martinez as an hypothetical example. That's where my issue lays.

Had they known Montgomery or Snell could be signed on the deal he got, they might have gone that route but you can't blame them for not anticipating what happened.  Same holds true for Martinez.  He was looking for much more.  They could have done nothing and hoped but we would have crucified them had things played out as expected.  You also can't just look at this year for Gray.  His salary is $35M in 2026 right when all of our young talent should be entering their prime.   They have a lot of pitching prospects and if none of them pan out we have bigger issues than not signing Gray.  Champman makes less than zero sense.

[Hashim]

Cross Dobnak off that list he’s too old and not good enough. 

[1985Fan]

Have to view the current pitching depth chart in comparison to previous years, not last year. Last year was fortunate from an injury and depth standpoint. It’s not that long ago (2021) that JA Happ (19 starts @6.77 era), Matt Shoemaker (11 starts@8.06era) and Andrew Albers (4 starts@7.58era) were the #4, 5, and 6-8 starters. From that perspective, Headrick, SWR, Festa, and Dobnak are a quantum leap forward! Let’s see if the pitching development pipeline is going to finally pay off. Looks better now, I hope it is better when the dust settles. 

[DocBauer]

I think there's a difference related to the depth based on someone coming up TOMORROW, vs the Twins rotation actually having some "lucky" good health for a couple of months. (Goodness knows they're overdue right now to have some health luck after the past 2 weeks!)

BTW, do we take ANYTHING away from Festa starting game 1 for the Saints? Or is that just how things laid out coming off their ST? 

I think SWR and Headrick are #1A and 1B as of NOW. It's easy to say EVERYONE really needs a month to get in a groove, but it's true. These guys have thrown at the ML level at least. I'm completely torn as to SWR's potential based on youth, weird handling of his career, and up and down results. BUT, if the increased velocity is for real, with his change, and SUPPOSEDLY good "STUFF +", you have to be encouraged about back end starter potential at worst. I don't think his going to milb camp early is a negative. He needed to get ramped up, continue to work on his stuff, and he wasn't going to break camp barring a major injury.

I, and I think most of us, forget Headrick is "young" experience wise. I believe he had about a half season of AA ball in 2022 before being added to the 40 man. From there it was ST, and a jump to MLB and AAA and riding the shuttle all of 2023. It feels like he never got a chance to just settle in last year. What I saw in 2023 was a tall LH arm that threw some solid stuff, but was very inconsistent. Not surprising considering lack of experience. My gut feeling says he ends up in the pen eventually, but that doesn't mean now, or that he can't be a solid ML SP. A good start to 2024 is good for his trajectory. 

To me, NOW, the #3 guy is probably Dobnak. And I really don't understand the push back on him. He wasn't just a "good story". He actually threw decently, kept the Twins in games, won some games, and seemed like a fairly decent #5 starter with #4 potential if he could just put guys away quicker in counts. He didn't have to turn in to a K machine type of arm, just find a way to put guys away sooner. He was nothing special, to be sure. But through 19 games and 15 starts between 2019 and the abbreviated 2020 seasons he was 8-5 with an OK ERA and modest 6K per 9 and about a 1.30 WHIP. Then the finger injury happened as his career nosedived for the 3 seasons or so, with a bit of promise showing through in 2023. He's reportedly working on a new change to add to his repertoire. At 29yo and supposedly healthy again, is it that hard to see him as a 5 IP 5th starter call up if injuries hit?

Festa is the best of the bunch based on talent and potential and results, especially if the reports of him working hard to just gain a little more strength and endurance are to be believed. Hopefully, continued hard work and natural maturity will continue to add strength and endurance to his tall and long frame. Because the STUFF is there! But I'd bet the Festa come June 1st is different than the Festa who had an OK debut a few days ago. No question he's the #1 GUY, but he probably isn't the #1 promotion guy for now, beyond the 40 man.

BUT, if you want to take a moment to look at the 2nd half of the season...if not earlier...then pay attention to Pierson Ohl, who've I've commented on previously and @nicksaviking commented on.

Drafted in the much discussed 2021 class, in the 14th round, he's been borderline outstanding. He was solid as a rookie in 2022 at Ft Myers. He began 2023 in Cedar Rapids and was pretty solid again. And then he was jumped to AA Wichita for about 2/3 of a season. Once there, his ERA and WHIP both dropped. It's been reported that he's been throwing in the mid 90's now. He's supposed to have a good change along with good control. I was slightly surprised he wasn't included as an invite to SP. Maybe not wanting to ask too much too soon? Again, as I've said before, don't sleep on him. With all due reference to other prospects, I see a mid year jump, if not soon sooner, to St Paul. I wouldn't be shocked if he and Festa weren't the top SP options come August.

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Well, news just broke that Clevinger signed wiht the White Sox of all teams. The terms were not disclosed. Why he would go to a bottom dweller is a bit of a mystery. We may find out when we find out the terms. 

I am absolutely NOT throwing shade on anyone, including Clevinger. Nor anyone else. I am ONLY saying that as a sports fan of decades, one thing I've seen is that if you have the talent to PLAY, you usually get a "pass" of anything that's happened in your life. And while I think it's changed dramatically in the past few years, I think the NFL was more recently  accepting of "we'll let it pass if you can play", versus other leagues.

Again, I'm just projecting and spitballing here, but for ML teams to pass on Clevinger...and Bauer...just tells me there ARE personality issues if nothing else in play. And I'm going to leave it at that.

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The lack of news on Clevinger is odd. The Mets had a starter go down and they are supposedly talking with Julio Teheran.  No one is reported to be negotiating or talking to Clevinger at all.  He turned down a $12m option if memory serves. Maybe he just wants too much money? 

It was one of those "mutual" options, and those almost never suit both parties involved, a year later.  Sort of like declaring being BFFs in middle school. 😀

His contract was for $8M last year, and the option carried a $4M buyout by the team.  In effect he was paid $12M for 2023, and had no say in continuing the contract for 2024.  That said, apparently no bridges were burned, carrying out the business side of the deal, and they were able to reach agreement on $3M (plus an equal amount of incentive pay) for 2024.

2023:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/white-sox-in-agreement-with-mike-clevinger.html

2024:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/white-sox-to-re-sign-mike-clevinger.html

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

A) we had Manny Margot at DH in a game already, yet Polanco was totally redundant??

 

(B) 100 percent? Stop it. 

 

You make this sound like a travesty but you fail to mention that the starter was a LHP and Polanco's career wRC+ against LHP is 96 and Margot's is 109.  No doubt Polanco would be the far superior choice if a RHP was on the mound but that was not the case.  

[Fatbat]

Its actually a nice list and other than Dobnak, they are young and each has huge potential. Most MLB SP have been in the same boat, young guys developing their craft, getting experience and gaining confidence. 
WHEN we need someone to step up, we have more than one guy to take the reins.  As the season goes on, the possibilities increase for more prospects to be on this list.  Cory Lewis and Raya are definitely a possible fireman type call up in the 2nd half. 
There is no reason to think that we don't have someone waiting in the weeds to be the next Ober/Varland development guy. I would like to see Headrick take it just because he is LH. Everyone of the guys on the list and more will definitely be making at least 1 start this season. We just need one of them to take a huge step. No reason to even be worried because one of them will take that step. Thats why they are getting paid. 

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

A) we had Manny Margot at DH in a game already, yet Polanco was totally redundant??

 

(B) 100 percent? Stop it. 

 

A) I don't fill out the lineup card. I certainly wouldn't have put Margot in as DH.
B) Yes. 100%. As in every single analyst expected the Twins to shed Farmer's contract.
 

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Had they known Montgomery or Snell could be signed on the deal he got, they might have gone that route but you can't blame them for not anticipating what happened.  Same holds true for Martinez.  He was looking for much more.  They could have done nothing and hoped but we would have crucified them had things played out as expected.  You also can't just look at this year for Gray.  His salary is $35M in 2026 right when all of our young talent should be entering their prime.   They have a lot of pitching prospects and if none of them pan out we have bigger issues than not signing Gray.  Champman makes less than zero sense.

Did the Twins need the guys they signed? In my opinion, no. The players signed will likely add literally no value over existing options.
Would the Twins have had money to pursue better guys they didn't sign?
There were plenty of options left on the market. There was no emergency to bring in the guys the Twins brought in.

As far as Gray, I think it's totally reasonable to consider his salary this year. This is when we're in the salary crunch where the Twins needed flexibility before a new TV contract so it's just demonstrative there were ways around the crunch with superior talent on a team which is already expected to win a division. There were ways to sign high caliber players with the resources Falvey had, but Falvey spent his money on players who add depth, but likely no value over existing players/depth options.

[USAFChief]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

A) I don't fill out the lineup card. I certainly wouldn't have put Margot in as DH.
B) Yes. 100%. As in every single analyst expected the Twins to shed Farmer's contract.
 

A) you seem under the impression that because you don't think something is an option, nobody thinks it's an option 

B) you seem under the impression because you don't think it's an option, nobody thinks it's an option 

 

BTW, what's your DH solution? Margot in CF and Buxton at DH?

Give that some thought, see if you can find the flaw, and get back to us. 

[Otaknam]

It looks like the Twins think Festa has the highest ceiling. But who gets the first call up will depend on where they are in the AAA rotation. SWR needs to show some progress this year. Dobnak always seemed like a long reliever, not a starter. And his $9 million contract was alway a head scratcher because he didn’t really accomplish that much IMO. It is disappointing that the wealthy ownership didn’t step up to acquire another starter free agent, given the strong young core of this team. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 4/1/2024 at 10:07 AM, jorgenswest said:

The next pitcher in line is likely the pitcher is rested when there is a need. Last year Ober appeared to be next in line but Varland got the earlier opportunity since he was rested.

The Twins would be wise to sync the player they perceive most ready with the starter more likely to need replacement. I think that is Paddack or Varland so I would line up that pitcher so that they are in sync with those two or maybe a day earlier. 

Am through 3 innings of Varland’s first start & he’s not sharp. Up around 70 pitches through 3 innings. Going to 3-2 with probably 10 of the first 16 batters.

Really good stuff!! Nice change-up …. good fastball …….Milwaukee announcers complementing his cutter/slider.

Just out there THROWING. Does not look like a pitcher at all. His thoughts on location either aren’t there or he lacks command. I think he’s throwing it where he wants most of the time - I don’t think he has a very good plan. Looks like an athlete that’s never been coached. I like Louie but he’s not giving himself nor the Team a chance.

Hope these 3-4 guys behind him have a better approach. A lot to expect with youth!

[harmony55]

On 4/1/2024 at 8:17 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

Last year was Ober, Varland, De Leon, Dobnak, SWR, Sanchez, and they had to go get Keuchel because after Varland it really was terrible.

This year it is Dobnak, SWR, Festa and prospects, and this year at any level is better, I am not buying it.

Remember last year the starters were pretty healthy and the Twins started 43 games from depth in 22 they started around 60 from depth.

FWIW Dallas Keuchel is off the board after reportedly signing a minor league contract with the Seattle Mariners:

https://twitter.com/DKramer_/status/1775311169148031235?s=20

Keuchel could provide depth behind righthander Emerson Hancock, the Bryan Woo replacement who looked solid Monday in his first start.