2024 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster Projections: Finally Final

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have been hunting for a right-handed bat to add to the outfield mix. Earlier this week, the club traded for Manuel Margot, and the Opening Day roster is one step closer to being finalized.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Minnesota has been in the market for a specific player type throughout the offseason. Last season, the Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide insurance behind Byron Buxton in center field. Taylor’s role became critical when Buxton was relegated to the designated hitter role. The Twins believe Buxton will return to center field in 2024, but it’s critical to have depth behind him with his injury history. On Monday, the club traded for Manuel Margot, in what seems to be the team’s last external move before Opening Day. Here’s how the team’s 26-man roster projects if the season started today.

Catchers (2): Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers
Vázquez and Jeffers have the potential to be one of the best catching duos in baseball. Last season, Vázquez was one of the AL’s best defenders behind the plate, but struggled offensively with a 65 OPS+. Jeffers revamped his swing and finished among the AL’s top offensive catchers with a 134 OPS+. Unfortunately, he had his worst defensive season, with a Fielding Run Value in the 7th percentile. The Twins added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster earlier in the offseason, so he’d be the next man up if one of the starters was injured. 

Infielders (6): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Carlos Santana
This unit, too, could be one of MLB's best. Correa suffered through a plantar fasciitis injury that impacted him on both sides of the ball in 2023. His health seems to be back to 100%, and he retooled his swing to get back to his previous offensive performance. There are high expectations surrounding Lewis after a breakout season in 2023, including some big moments in the playoffs. Julien will begin the year as the team’s primary second baseman after the club traded long-time infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners. Before that trade, Farmer was a candidate to be non-tendered or traded, and now he has a critical bench role. Santana was the team’s biggest free agent acquisition, and he will get the majority of the reps at first base. Kirilloff will see some time at first, but is likely to see more at DH after fighting injuries in recent seasons. Top prospect Brooks Lee is also waiting in the wings at Triple-A to take over a starting role when the opportunity arises. 

Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner, Manuel Margot
Minnesota’s front office targeted Margot throughout the offseason, before finally landing him in a three-player trade with the Dodgers. The Twins were rumored to be in the market for a right-handed outfield bat, and Margot can provide insurance behind Buxton in center field. Buxton, Kepler, and Wallner are scheduled to be the team’s regular trio of starting outfielders, with Castro stepping in when the team is facing a solid left-handed starter. The Twins have been talking highly about Austin Martin this offseason, and he’s already on the 40-man roster. The team needs to focus on the skills Martin has shown during his professional career to get the most from him at the big-league level.

Rotation (5): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani 
López is garnering plenty of hype this winter, after ending the 2023 season on a high note. There is even conversation about him being a Cy Young candidate. Ober is looking to build off a strong 2023 season and has his eyes set on pitching 200 innings this year. Ryan is searching for more consistency after pitching through a groin injury last season and seeing his home run rate rise. Desclafani’s addition in the Polanco trade pushes Louie Varland to Triple-A to begin the year. The Twins have been working with Desclafani on his sinker, hoping he can return to his previous form as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Joining Varland at Triple-A are other young options like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Brent Headrick. Starting pitching depth is critical for contending teams, especially over the course of 162 games. 

Bullpen (8): Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumount, Steven Okert
On paper, the Twins project to have the American League’s best bullpen, but relievers can be fickle. Durán is one of the game’s best closers, which gives the Twins an advantage in late-inning situations. Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar will all be used in set-up roles, depending on who has the hot hand. Jorge Alcalá and Kody Funderburk are also in the bullpen mix, but other veteran options make the Opening Day roster in this forecast, since these players have options remaining. Cole Sands is a long-relief option, if the team feels the need to add someone for that role. Former top pitching prospect Matt Canterino is an intriguing name to monitor for a bullpen role in the season’s second half. He is returning from Tommy John surgery and is on an innings limit, so he will begin the year as a starter and can shift to reliever for the stretch run. 

---

How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? What will change with the 26-man roster before Opening Day? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

View full article

[Nashvilletwin]

Yep, that’s it and, unless there are injuries or someone way underperforms, there are really no position battles left.

Let’s hope for a boring, predictable spring training breaking camp with that roster and everyone healthy and playing well.

[Cory Engelhardt]

This is PROBABLY the opening day roster (and it will change by game 5, as always) but I have a hard time saying the offseason is DONE every with this front office.

Should be a great season ahead!

[Karbo]

Can someone explain how so many writers on this site have Santana pegged as the main 1st baseman? I was under the impression he was signed to platoon with AK at 1st. If the Twins are hoping for more than that, it seems they will have a big hole in the lineup against RHP.

[RpR]

23 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Can someone explain how so many writers on this site have Santana pegged as the main 1st baseman? I was under the impression he was signed to platoon with AK at 1st. If the Twins are hoping for more than that, it seems they will have a big hole in the lineup against RHP.

Because he is better all-around than Kirilloff.

[Joe A. Preusser]

27 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Can someone explain how so many writers on this site have Santana pegged as the main 1st baseman? I was under the impression he was signed to platoon with AK at 1st. If the Twins are hoping for more than that, it seems they will have a big hole in the lineup against RHP.

Because he is the best defensive 1B on the team by a fair margin.  Between Santana off days, DH spot, and some LF possibly, there will be plenty of ABs for AK.  

[Karbo]

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

Because he is better all-around than Kirilloff.

defensively yes, But he hasn't hit much against RHP for the last few years. Can he save enough runs to make up for his negative hitting?

[Jocko87]

Looks about right.  After much consternation over the offseason we can start to compare with last years opening day roster.  https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-2023-opening-day-roster

My summation 2023 > 2024

Gallo > AK

Solano > Santana

Gordon > Julien

Miranda > Lewis

MAT > Margot

Larnach > Wallner

Gray > Ober

Mahle > Paddack

Maeda > Disco

Lopez, Pagan, Alcala, Moran, Sands > Stewart, Topa, Jackson, Staumont, Okert

Some possible downgrades but a lot of this looks better to me.  There is significant reason they believe in the group they have.  LFG!

Edited February 28, 2024 by Jocko87

[Karbo]

Just now, Joe A. Preusser said:

Because he is the best defensive 1B on the team by a fair margin.  Between Santana off days, DH spot, and some LF possibly, there will be plenty of ABs for AK.  

It looks like a black hole in the lineup on the days he faces RHP

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yep, that’s it and, unless there are injuries or someone way underperforms, there are really no position battles left.

No roster battles but the pecking order in the bullpen is far from set and we don't know who will play the most at 1B.

[Parfigliano]

How is a maxed and stacked team like the LAD projected as fWAR 41.5 and the TC 41.3?

[Parfigliano]

9 minutes ago, Karbo said:

defensively yes, But he hasn't hit much against RHP for the last few years. Can he save enough runs to make up for his negative hitting?

I say an emphatic no.

[BobAzar]

8 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Looks about right.  After much consternation over the offseason we can start to compare with last years opening day roster.  https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-2023-opening-day-roster

My summation

Gallo > AK

Solano > Santana

Gordon > Julien

Miranda > Lewis

MAT > Margot

Larnach > Wallner

Gray > Ober

Mahle > Paddack

Maeda > Disco

Lopez, Pagan, Alcala, Moran, Sands > Stewart, Topa, Jackson, Staumont, Okert

Some possible downgrades but a lot of this looks better to me.  There is significant reason they believe in the group they have.  LFG!

I mistook the ">" as greater than rather than an arrow from 2023 to 2024. and I was very confused about some of them...

[Joe A. Preusser]

21 minutes ago, Karbo said:

It looks like a black hole in the lineup on the days he faces RHP

Santana might not be his 27 year old self, but he's not a black hole.  He'll hit enough to go with his defense to justify a fairly regular spot in the lineup.  And if not, there are great backup options in AK, Miranda, even EJ or Brooks Lee.  I'm not worried too much about this team.  It has a really high floor and room to grow.  Trade deadline will possibly be very interesting.

O/U for wins 90.5.

 

 

[Fatbat]

How’d that Gallo and Mahle fWAR in ‘23 work out?

[Brandon]

25 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

How is a maxed and stacked team like the LAD projected as fWAR 41.5 and the TC 41.3?

The Dodgers are strong with their all stars and we are stronger with depth. 

[HerbieFan]

So St.Paul has Lee, Miranda, Martin, Larnach, Severino, Camargo in its lineup.  Varland, SWR, Festa, Headrick, Canterino (??) in its rotation.  Funderburk, Alcala, Sands, Canterino (??), etc in the bullen.  On the surface that seems like a pretty good group of depth options across town.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO the fWAR made very little if any difference by the off-season transactions, The new additions just replace our capable in-house players Varland, Alcala, Funderburk, and Sands; took playing time from Kiriloff; took away essential evaluation & testing of players like Miranda & Larnach to see if they have what it takes to belong in the MLB and delayed the promotions of Martin, Cantarino, SWR, Festa etc.

200 innings by Ober, 150 innings by Paddack & any substantial innings by DeSclafani are absurd. I hope management isn't taking any of this seriously & plan accordingly.

[Jocko87]

44 minutes ago, BobAzar said:

I mistook the ">" as greater than rather than an arrow from 2023 to 2024. and I was very confused about some of them...

I thought about that after typing but just left it. Not a rating, just who is in the similar roster spot.  Several of them are a clear greater than though. 

Added a clarification.

[Jocko87]

23 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

How’d that Gallo and Mahle fWAR in ‘23 work out?

The opposite of Solano and Stewart.  🤷‍♂️

[jorgenswest]

Of the position players I would like to see a bat emerge that can join the line up against right handed pitching. I would hope Larnach could win that job likely at the expense of Farmer. If they think Larnach can approach an 800 OPS+ against right handed pitching they need that bat. Even in his inconsistent start to his career his career OPS+ against right handed pitching is 741 and better than we should expect from Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez.

Losing Farmer does hurt the line up against left handed pitching and depth behind Correa. I think the short side platoon loss can be minimized. Even in games started by a lefty that probably means two plate appearances. I don’t think the drop in the game takes a hit with Julien at the bottom of the order seeing that lefty at most twice and then likely right handed relievers. Castro is also an option to start some at 2B as well as being a defensive sub. Castro is also my short term option if Correa needs a day or two of rest. If he needs an IL stay then Lee gets his feet wet or they bring up Helman.

I hope that Larnach has an opportunity to win a job. I also hope Lee has an opportunity to win a job.

 

[Brandon]

25 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

So St.Paul has Lee, Miranda, Martin, Larnach, Severino, Camargo in its lineup.  Varland, SWR, Festa, Headrick, Canterino (??) in its rotation.  Funderburk, Alcala, Sands, Canterino (??), etc in the bullen.  On the surface that seems like a pretty good group of depth options across town.

AAA World Series here we come!

[Nashvilletwin]

29 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

So St.Paul has Lee, Miranda, Martin, Larnach, Severino, Camargo in its lineup.  Varland, SWR, Festa, Headrick, Canterino (??) in its rotation.  Funderburk, Alcala, Sands, Canterino (??), etc in the bullen.  On the surface that seems like a pretty good group of depth options across town.

Don’t forget Helman and Goodrum too. 
ERod starts at AA maybe, but he should be banging on the door too. 

This depth means a Mahle - Steer/CES trade would be very possible at the deadline.  Hopefully, with more success.  

[Major League Ready]

I sure hope they don't pull Kirilloff from 1B against RHP on a regular basis to replace him with someone that has had a wRC+ of 75-94 for the last 3 years, especially when that guy is 38 years old.  The odds of a degradation in performance are far higher than an improvement.  Kirilloff's wRC+ last year against RHP was 138.  The defensive improvement does not make up for a 40-50 point difference in wRC+.

[cmoss84]

I like Funderburk...hope he makes opening day roster. Will be interesting to watch him and Canterino...if he can stay healthy at all. 

[Fatbat]

40 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

The opposite of Solano and Stewart.  🤷‍♂️

Expert projections are always spot on 🕺🎊💃

[IaBeanCounter]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yep, that’s it and, unless there are injuries or someone way underperforms, there are really no position battles left.

 

I would say that there is one position battle left; Wallner vs Larnach.  While I expect Wallner to make the opening day roster, if he has a poor spring training and Larnach is crushing the ball I could see Larnach getting the nod.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Of the position players I would like to see a bat emerge that can join the line up against right handed pitching. I would hope Larnach could win that job likely at the expense of Farmer. If they think Larnach can approach an 800 OPS+ against right handed pitching they need that bat. Even in his inconsistent start to his career his career OPS+ against right handed pitching is 741 and better than we should expect from Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez.

Losing Farmer does hurt the line up against left handed pitching and depth behind Correa. I think the short side platoon loss can be minimized. Even in games started by a lefty that probably means two plate appearances. I don’t think the drop in the game takes a hit with Julien at the bottom of the order seeing that lefty at most twice and then likely right handed relievers. Castro is also an option to start some at 2B as well as being a defensive sub. Castro is also my short term option if Correa needs a day or two of rest. If he needs an IL stay then Lee gets his feet wet or they bring up Helman.

I hope that Larnach has an opportunity to win a job. I also hope Lee has an opportunity to win a job.

 

Farmer is as secure to this roster as Kepler. Certainly not at risk from any outfielder.

[CRF]

Looks about right to me, barring any last minute deals by Falvey. 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Farmer is as secure to this roster as Kepler. Certainly not at risk from any outfielder.

I am not trying to predict what the Twins will do. These are my thoughts on where I think they need to be better against right handed pitching and how I would make room for that need.

Do you think it is a need? How would you fill that need?