Extension Tied to Bailey Ober in More Than One Way

Why would Ober sign a deal like Ashby? wouldn't he get more in the next three years of Arb? Why would the Twins do a 5 year deal when they have him for 4 more?

Also will be 26 shortly and Ober will be 29, not sure they are the best comparisons, there has to be better doesn't there? 

But if the twins can buy out 1 year of free agency and though age 32 season for cheap I guess why not. If I was running the Twins I wouldn't do it and would be looking more into trading him prior to 26 and Ryan prior to 27, because Festa, SWR, Raya and others better be there to replace them.

First of all,forget about 200 IP Bailey. Give us 165 solid IP again and that is plenty enough. Get us to the WS and you'll add another 25 or so on top of that.

As for Ashby that is a very poor comp imo. Bailey has actually been good an has pitched. Ashby has not. I would venture to say that Ober will reach 20 million in his 3 years of arb alone. As for buying out 2-4 years of FA, he knows that meh SP are getting 12-14 mil per season, like Ashby. I doubt that he would sell those off too cheaply though. 7/75

Bailey has been good for the most part since making his debut. He added volume last year, and believes in himself. I think an extension would take a lot more money than your talking.

30 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

First of all,forget about 200 IP Bailey. Give us 165 solid IP again and that is plenty enough. Get us to the WS and you'll add another 25 or so on top of that.

As for Ashby that is a very poor comp imo. Bailey has actually been good an has pitched. Ashby has not. I would venture to say that Ober will reach 20 million in his 3 years of arb alone. As for buying out 2-4 years of FA, he knows that meh SP are getting 12-14 mil per season, like Ashby. I doubt that he would sell those off too cheaply though. 7/75

My thoughts too. 200 IP is very ambitious. But having a pitcher that's hungry to go more is good. Not wasting his bullets in AAA this year should help his #s. 165+ of even higher-quality innings is what I expect. At Ober's age I don't know how big of an extension really matters.

The little thing that separates Ober from most other pitchers is size; he is big. Taller pitchers take more time, on average, to reach their potential and then are able to sustain their effectiveness for a longer period of time, if they are able to refine those long levers. Ober is a big dude. He can pitch 200 innings as easily as any pitcher in baseball now that he seems to have managed those limbs. Like he said, physically he doesn't get tired or worn out. It has taken a couple of years for Ober to function comfortably with the mental side of the game, but if you watched him pitch physically tired wasn't a part of the equation. 

One cannot place Bailey Ober at the front of a rotation because he does not possess the type of velocity and stuff to blow hitters away like a Gerrit Cole or even Pablo Lopez. What Ober can do is take the ball every fifth day for an entire season and give the team 5-8 innings of solid pitching. 

The Twins are unlikely to be locking up middle rotation pitchers to long term high value contracts for now. Bailey will make a ton of money by the time his career is completed.

This is pretty straightforward, the twins can't generate enough surplus value by extending Ober because he's an injury risk already under team control. The numbers just don't work.

56 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

First, signing an extension to calm fans upset by having an affordable contender isn't really a thing. 

As for an Ober extension, or a Ryan deal for that matter, they are roughly the same age as Pablo.  I had to double check because it wasn't front of mind, Paddack is the same age as well.  I just don't see this team spending anything on pitchers in their 32-33's as they believe in their development abilities and they will be valuable assets for 4 years plus either trade or QO possibilities.  32/33 is probably around the general cut off age for position players as well.

Its also an artifact of their general pitching philosophy and I wouldn't be surprised if it was a conscious decision to control costs.  I believe they are set up to only extend a pitcher in the most, most, most ideal of circumstances.  By focusing on college pitchers they can develop it also sets those careers up to hit the major league window at the optimum ages so they run out of control at an age they wouldn't be interested in signing them anyway.  Taking Pablo to age 31 is about the most optimal situation. 

Ober, Ryan, Varland, Canterino, Prhilepp etc will likely never see an extension with the Twins, no matter how good they are.  It just doesn't fit their model.  A Raya or Soto might have a chance but everything would have to go perfectly to make sense.  Any college pitcher has to move very quickly though the minors and have immediate success to work out but working in the middle rounds with moldable clay makes that unlikely as well.

Cost control doesn't matter much in this model either.  If a player is good enough to break the arbitration bank it will be worth it in on-field performance and trade/QO value.  In the more likely scenario that they are just solid pitchers the money might be less than a contract signed.  

This is a good summary of what the Twins are attempting to accomplish. The talk of development is still a work in progress though with only Ober among the starting five right now as a player drafted and developed by the Twins.

I still want Varland, another guy drafted and developed, to be the #4 starting pitcher despite the presence of DeSclafani and the 97% of Twins Daily opposed to Varland.

I do believe that if the Twins were to make another gamble trade for a top starting pitcher in the next year there would be an openness to signing that guy to a long term deal.

2 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

They don't have to be drafted to be developed.  Another source for pitchers that fit this model is high schoolers drafted by others that they can trade for cheap.

Sure, agree. I can't think of any teenagers that the Twins have traded for, but SWR was young and is being developed.

Just now, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The evidence says otherwise… he was really good last year. Front of a mediocre rotation good, at very minimum.

Sorry if I made it sound as if Ober was not a really good pitcher. I would not label him an ace though and there is always opportunities to trade for an ace if a team is willing to make a big gamble. I do think Ober is outstanding and base my opinions on exactly that chart which I had looked at recently. 

Thanks for putting that up for people to see.