Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base

[Nick Nelson]

On paper, first base looks like the biggest positional weakness for the Minnesota Twins heading into 2024. 

The likely Opening Day starter may leave much to be desired as a regular, but this position is teeming with matchup-based potential and sleeper upside. It could easily end up as one of the team's most productive sources of offense.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Over nearly a two-decade stretch, first base was a position of steady continuity (and alliteration) for the Twins franchise, with Mientkiewicz giving way to Morneau and then Mauer. Miguel tried to carry the torch, but Sanó's tenure at first ended in 2022 after three seasons, and last year, the position felt a bit rudderless in the absence of all these Ms. 

No player started more than 64 games at first base in 2023, and we can probably expect a similarly wide distribution in the coming season. In fact, for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins, smartly rotating players through the position may hold the key to unlocking its potential.

TWINS FIRST BASEMEN AT A GLANCE

Starter: Carlos Santana
Backup: Alex Kirilloff
Depth: José Miranda, Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer
Prospects: Yunior Severino, Aaron Sabato

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 12th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 26th out of 30

THE GOOD
The Twins have three primary players slotted into their first base mix heading into 2024: Santana, Kirilloff and Miranda. There's a nice balance to this blend: Experience and youth. Aggressiveness and patience. A lefty, a righty, and a switch-hitter. 

The addition of Santana was deemed necessary due to question marks surrounding the other two; he's a good fit in that he provides a stable floor without standing as a major barrier for Kirilloff or Miranda to break through. That is a possibility Minnesota's front office clearly wants to keep open, and for valid reason. 

Kirilloff can feature as the focal point in the lineup against righties when healthy and on his game. This is not so much theoretical as proven, albeit never in sustained fashion. The 26-year-old had his most productive burst yet last year, posting a 117 OPS+ in 88 games, but his campaign was once again derailed by injury and ended with surgery. This time it's a shoulder operation that he's looking to bounce back from while also still dealing with a twice-repaired wrist. 

 

Likewise, Miranda is coming back from his own shoulder procedure (scar tissue removal) that was deemed relatively minor. Unlike Kirilloff, Miranda experienced no success whatsoever in a lost 2023 season, slashing just .211/.263/.303 in 40 games with the Twins and failing to elevate his game much in the hitter-friendly confines of St. Paul.

It was a hugely discouraging season, but not enough to fully dismiss all the promise he showed previously. Miranda starred in the minors during a breakthrough 2021 campaign and looked the part for much of his rookie year in '22. With Royce Lewis now entrenched at third, first base is Miranda's best opportunity to rebuild his value. If healthy and on the big-league roster he'd be favorably set up to do so, drawing at-bats against left-handed pitching in a platoon with the lefty-swinging Kirilloff. But the arrival of Santana likely means Miranda, still only 25, will need to wait his turn in the minors.

 

Kirilloff and Miranda both feel like major wild-cards for the Twins and their offensive outlook this year. But it's nice that the club isn't entirely dependent on either, having acquired Santana as a veteran stopgap and contingency plan. While his bat is much diminished from its prime, Santana was still above-average last year at age 37 and his disciplined approach at the plate limits the chances of a total aging-related collapse. He also brings a high-quality glove, which the Twins have lacked at first base. 

THE BAD
Although Santana remains a solid and slightly above-average hitter overall, his offense no longer stands out at his position the way it did during his prime in Cleveland. Last year his .323 wOBA ranked 17th out of 24 qualified first basemen, and unsurprisingly, projection systems are envisioning further decline from Santana, who turns 38 in April. ZiPS forecasts a .302 wOBA, which would've ranked third-worst at the positon last year.

The hope is that Santana's role can be reduced and optimized, rotating strategically against left-handed pitching and maybe stepping aside at one point to make room for a fully-formed combo of Kirilloff and Miranda. But then, that was also the hope last year with Donovan Solano, and he wound up getting the third-most plate appearances on the team.

As tantalizing it as it is to dream on Kirilloff and Miranda forming a mega-platoon, it's tough to trust either heading into this season. The uncertainty around both potential difference-makers puts the Twins in a bind, wanting to keep the gate open but at the same time needing to install a dependable short-term holding wall. With a limited budget, they landed on the aging Santana as their best bet.

We'll see how it goes. Projections are not rosy; FanGraphs projects the Twins to rank second-worst in the American League at first base. 

THE BOTTOM LINE
It's a big year for Kirilloff and Miranda. If either one can prove healthy and seize their potential over a sustained stretch, they are going have a shot at taking over this job. Santana is not a big impediment, which also speaks to his quality as a fill-in. 

I'll be curious to see how many appearances guys like Julien and Severino make at first this year. Giving prospect Brooks Lee a shot here would also be a possibility if things are clicking elsewhere in the infield. The roster is not exactly robust with reliable options but the Twins do have depth.

Heading into the 2024 season, the future at first base still feels rudderless in many ways. The Twins are hoping one of their former top hitting prospects can re-emerge and establish himself as the next long-term solution. "M" alliteration accepted, but not required.

Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:

• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher

View full article

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Hi Nick

why is the small side of the platoon labeled the starter?

I’d think Kirilloff (or Miranda) holds the keys to success here.

[danielp19653]

6 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Hi Nick

why is the small side of the platoon labeled the starter?

I’d think Kirilloff (or Miranda) holds the keys to success here.

My guess is that at least early in the season when fewer guys are rotating through the DH Kirilloff will probably be there more than first due to Santana having the better glove. After the first month I could see that changing when they want to get Correa, Lewis, and Buxton heavier DH usage to keep them fresh. Complete guess on my part 

[Joe A. Preusser]

7 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Hi Nick

why is the small side of the platoon labeled the starter?

I’d think Kirilloff (or Miranda) holds the keys to success here.

Starter at 1st.  I've been reading Kirrillof will get lots of ABs at DH to start.  He could also be in the LF mix.  Santana has the best 1B glove of the three.  

[Mark G]

3 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Starter at 1st.  I've been reading Kirrillof will get lots of ABs at DH to start.  He could also be in the LF mix.  Santana has the best 1B glove of the three.  

Do we know (I don't) just how good Santana's glove is?  The one thing Mauer proved, not that long ago, is that having a first baseman that can eat up errant throws like a vacuum cleaner is something we take for granted when we have it, and blame the other fielders when we don't.  I have said for a while now that we need a bona fide first baseman, and not use the position as a rotation to get a bat into the lineup on certain occasions.  We clearly haven't developed one in the minors recently; the position is as important as any on the field, and we would be wise to make it a priority in our system.  

[Fatbat]

1B will probably end up a major strength of the team. A healthy AK and Miranda can really rip the cover off the ball. 

[big dog]

I know Santana is declining, but last year he still made me nervous when he batted against the Twins with men on base. There are deep scars there.

I really hope he has a little something left in the tank, and I'm betting he does. Whether he does or doesn't, I really hope Kirilloff can stay healthy and become the primary first baseman.

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Do we know (I don't) just how good Santana's glove is?  The one thing Mauer proved, not that long ago, is that having a first baseman that can eat up errant throws like a vacuum cleaner is something we take for granted when we have it, and blame the other fielders when we don't.  I have said for a while now that we need a bona fide first baseman, and not use the position as a rotation to get a bat into the lineup on certain occasions.  We clearly haven't developed one in the minors recently; the position is as important as any on the field, and we would be wise to make it a priority in our system.  

He’s near elite with his glove……overall play at 1B!

I still think that if Buxton is in CF & a RH pitcher is throwing, Kirilloff will see most starts at 1B.

Castro can DH some as well from left side.

 

[JD-TWINS]

I think the Kirilloff/Santana platoon at 1B could be a 25-30HR combo with OPS in the .825 range……….this is just Santana from the right side & obviously, Kirilloff from the left side.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I think the Kirilloff/Santana platoon at 1B could be a 25-30HR combo with OPS in the .825 range……….this is just Santana from the right side & obviously, Kirilloff from the left side.

I hope you are right JD...but I have my doubts.

[miracleb]

I would love to see Santana only starting against lefties......that means Kirilloff is healthy and hitting....... and will get 2/3rd of the at bats!

[TwinsDr2021]

19 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s near elite with his glove……overall play at 1B!

 

Honest question, what makes him elite with the glove? I know there is more than errors, but he committed 8 last year and 9 teams last year committed more than that.  (The Twins as a team only committed 6 at 1B last year.)

[bighat]

If someone offered you a million dollars to correctly predict which player had the better season (Santana or Kirilloff)....let's be honest we'd all pick Santana. 

Kirilloff's got a nagging injury that hasn't gone away. That doesn't make him a bad guy, or a bad baseball player, but it does mean that we should keep our expectations realistic. 

I predict Santana to get more innings at 1B, more hits, HRs, RBI and plate appearances than Kirilloff this year. And that's fine! I think he's a perfectly capable player. It's unfortunate to not be able to put a true power hitter at this corner IF spot, but that's where we are.  

[Fatbat]

11 minutes ago, bighat said:

If someone offered you a million dollars to correctly predict which player had the better season (Santana or Kirilloff)....let's be honest we'd all pick Santana. 

Kirilloff's got a nagging injury that hasn't gone away. That doesn't make him a bad guy, or a bad baseball player, but it does mean that we should keep our expectations realistic. 

I predict Santana to get more innings at 1B, more hits, HRs, RBI and plate appearances than Kirilloff this year. And that's fine! I think he's a perfectly capable player. It's unfortunate to not be able to put a true power hitter at this corner IF spot, but that's where we are.  

Its a long season. I’d bet on AK. 
 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, bighat said:

If someone offered you a million dollars to correctly predict which player had the better season (Santana or Kirilloff)....let's be honest we'd all pick Santana. 

Kirilloff's got a nagging injury that hasn't gone away. That doesn't make him a bad guy, or a bad baseball player, but it does mean that we should keep our expectations realistic. 

I predict Santana to get more innings at 1B, more hits, HRs, RBI and plate appearances than Kirilloff this year. And that's fine! I think he's a perfectly capable player. It's unfortunate to not be able to put a true power hitter at this corner IF spot, but that's where we are.  

Honestly, Santana is not where I’d place my bet. If Kirilloff and Miranda are so lost/injured that they are entirely ineffective, my bet would Ed Julien moves to 1 and Lee comes up to play second.

id put my money on Kirilloff too

[stringer bell]

21 minutes ago, bighat said:

If someone offered you a million dollars to correctly predict which player had the better season (Santana or Kirilloff)....let's be honest we'd all pick Santana. 

Kirilloff's got a nagging injury that hasn't gone away. That doesn't make him a bad guy, or a bad baseball player, but it does mean that we should keep our expectations realistic. 

I predict Santana to get more innings at 1B, more hits, HRs, RBI and plate appearances than Kirilloff this year. And that's fine! I think he's a perfectly capable player. It's unfortunate to not be able to put a true power hitter at this corner IF spot, but that's where we are.  

What nagging injury are you speaking of? According to reports from Fort Myers, Kirilloff is a full-go now at the start of spring training. Santana will be 38 on Eclipse Day and a lot of sand has gone through the hourglass. 

If Kirilloff isn't healthy again for some or all of the season, it well may be that Santana gets the bulk of the playing time at first base. After all, Kirilloff is twelve years younger than Santana, but does have a significantly longer injury history. 

I'd love, love, love to see AK get 450-500 at-bats this year and post numbers good enough to plan for him to be the primary first baseman for the next five years. 

[stringer bell]

56 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Castro can DH some as well from left side.

 

Well no. Willi is the Twins best returning defender from 2023 according to runs saved (and my eyeball test). He can take center for Buxton to DH, left for Wallner or Kepler to DH, second for Julien to DH or third for Lewis to DH. Same idea, but I doubt Willi is the DH more than once in a blue moon. 

[bighat]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'd love, love, love to see AK get 450-500 at-bats this year and post numbers good enough to plan for him to be the primary first baseman for the next five years. 

Same. Just hard to bank on it or even expect it. Pulling for the guy for sure. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I think the Kirilloff/Santana platoon at 1B could be a 25-30HR combo with OPS in the .825 range……….this is just Santana from the right side & obviously, Kirilloff from the left side.

This is possible. That would still only be adequate offensive production at 1B. Combine with Santana's glove and it could be a plus.

[stringer bell]

It is pretty certain that to start the season Santana will be the first baseman most of the time. If the Twins are facing a right hander in March/April, it looks like Kirilloff will DH most of the time and Smooth will be at first base.

As the season wears on, I'm hopeful things will change. First of all, I'm sure Rocco will rotate several through the DH role, in which case I presume AK starts at first and Santana rides the pine. Secondly, I'm hopeful that Kirilloff hits well enough that he's a must in the lineup versus right handers and he's good enough versus lefties that he isn't pinch hit for automatically and maybe starts some games against southpaws.

It has been pointed out widely that Kirilloff was not a good defender at first base last year. I've said it a few times and I'll say it again that there is no reason why he can't be at least average at first base and probably much better than that. There were no red flags about his first base defense as he ascended to the majors and he looked good there in cameos in '21 and '22. Maybe it was something to do with injuries that he was playing with, maybe it was random, I don't know. I'll also state that I have a bias about first basemen being over six feet tall and prefer them to be left handed. 

Carlos Santana's defensive numbers spiked positively in 2023 according to FanGraphs. Why would a guy suddenly become elite at age 37 when his numbers previously were merely above average? I think a big part of that might be randomness, as well. That said, if Kirilloff really is limited with the glove at first base, it is nice to have somebody who has been solid at first base for a decade available.

[DJL44]

Based on last season's results Miranda is behind Severino on the depth chart.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The hope is that Santana's role can be reduced and optimized, rotating strategically against left-handed pitching and maybe stepping aside at one point to make room for a fully-formed combo of Kirilloff and Miranda.

The roster construction with three short side platoon players makes it difficult to hope. Someone of Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez needs to start against right handed pitching. All are projected to be below average against right handed pitching in what is essentially a DH opening. The only one with options is Castro so I guess they could send him out for a good bat against right handed pitching in order to realize that hope. The only other way to realize that hope is to hope for one of the other short side platoon players to get injured.

[Karbo]

If the Twins are hoping for Santana to be a regular at 1B they are probably in trouble. IMO if AK go's down the best option is moving Julian to 1st and Lee up at 2nd. Santana against lefties almost exclusively seems the safer bet.

[stringer bell]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Based on last season's results Miranda is behind Severino on the depth chart.

Overall evaluation isn't based only on last season. The most significant stats posted (IMHO) were what Miranda put up in 2022 in a pennant race when he was probably the team's best hitter is July and August. 

[Gamblerssoftball]

I really enjoyed the play of Solano last year. Does anyone know if he's signed with another team?

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The roster construction with three short side platoon players makes it difficult to hope. Someone of Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez needs to start against right handed pitching. All are projected to be below average against right handed pitching in what is essentially a DH opening. The only one with options is Castro so I guess they could send him out for a good bat against right handed pitching in order to realize that hope. The only other way to realize that hope is to hope for one of the other short side platoon players to get injured.

If you have 5 guys with equally mediocre bats to choose from, pick the one who gives you the best defense that day and put him in the field. Most days that's Willi Castro.

[tony&rodney]

The article includes it all and the comments correctly reflect the questions, angst, and hopes for first base.

Alex Kirilloff can still have a good career if he doesn't work out this year, but it is a very big year for AK as a Twin. How the season unfolds will determine whether Kirilloff remains as a player for the Twins.

Santana will be a professional player who performs to whatever capabilities remain in his body. Depth is the hope.

Miranda is in a tough spot and will need to force his way back from AAA with a consistent blast of line drives down the lines, in the gaps, and over the fences. Jose will return to the lineup in some capacity if he produces.

The big bet is on AK though. Already the comments show some betting on him and some betting against him. 2018 was a long time ago and Alex was in A ball. That season and two stretches in St. Paul (2022 & 2023) show what Kirilloff can do. AK has also had brief stretches for the Twins where he crushed the ball.. I'm thinking Kirilloff comes up big this year with over 500 PA and Santana then serves as an excellent depth player when called on.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

 

As tantalizing it as it is to dream on Kirilloff and Miranda forming a mega-platoon, it's tough to trust either heading into this season. The uncertainty around both potential difference-makers puts the Twins in a bind, wanting to keep the gate open but at the same time needing to install a dependable short-term holding wall. With a limited budget, they landed on the aging Santana as their best bet.

 

 

Sorry, but this is not a dream I have. My dream is to find starters that don't need to be platooned, then stacking the bench with the best players you can fill it with. 

I get why the Twins are platooning right now, but it's highly inefficient to roster construction. Get these guys to hit either handed pitchers, and if they can't, keep looking.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Kiriloff's bat is elite. Of course when healthy. However, he hasn't yet proven himself to be "injury prone." I want to see that bat in the lineup as much as possible in 2024. We will be a better team because of that. My bet also is that he will prove to be at least league average with the glove. Maybe even better.

Santana can play a role on the team. But if its a starring one my bet is that means the team will be a worse one. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

59 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

It is pretty certain that to start the season Santana will be the first baseman most of the time. If the Twins are facing a right hander in March/April, it looks like Kirilloff will DH most of the time and Smooth will be at first base.

As the season wears on, I'm hopeful things will change. First of all, I'm sure Rocco will rotate several through the DH role, in which case I presume AK starts at first and Santana rides the pine. Secondly, I'm hopeful that Kirilloff hits well enough that he's a must in the lineup versus right handers and he's good enough versus lefties that he isn't pinch hit for automatically and maybe starts some games against southpaws.

It has been pointed out widely that Kirilloff was not a good defender at first base last year. I've said it a few times and I'll say it again that there is no reason why he can't be at least average at first base and probably much better than that. There were no red flags about his first base defense as he ascended to the majors and he looked good there in cameos in '21 and '22. Maybe it was something to do with injuries that he was playing with, maybe it was random, I don't know. I'll also state that I have a bias about first basemen being over six feet tall and prefer them to be left handed. 

Carlos Santana's defensive numbers spiked positively in 2023 according to FanGraphs. Why would a guy suddenly become elite at age 37 when his numbers previously were merely above average? I think a big part of that might be randomness, as well. That said, if Kirilloff really is limited with the glove at first base, it is nice to have somebody who has been solid at first base for a decade available.

I agree. I also think it's very important for the Twins to make sure that Kirilloff gets 450-500 ABs this year and at least 75 games at 1B. This is the most unsettled position we have other than the #2 starter.  Santana is at most a 1 year stop gap. We need to find out this year, not next year this year, whether we can whether we have a long term 1B in AK, or whether we need to work on Miranda or get a FA to cover the position going forward. We look pretty set most everywhere else to have a contending team for the next 5 years or so. We need to set this spot with who we have or get someone else for next season and beyond. We need to figure out by July if the right side of the IF is AK and Julien. If it's not, we need to pivot to Julien and Lee, Miranda and Julien, or some other combination that we can trot out there from 2025-28 (after which we lose control over Lewis, Ryan, and Ober). 

We're close. Let's finish the building job. 500 plus ABs this year for AK, Julien, Wallner, and Lewis and 400 plus for Jeffers, unless they completely bomb. 25-30 starts for Ryan and Ober. 20 plus starts for Varland and Paddack. 200-250 ABs for Martin, same for Miranda if we can find a spot. Find out if Larnach can hit MLB pitching or find a way to keep Kepler around for 2-3 more years. Get in the playoffs and win at least a series or two. Figure out who of this group is in your core going forward with Correa, Lopez, and Buxton, augment as necessary over the winter, and compete for a title in 2025 if we can't get there this year. Get to the ALDS or better this year if you can but be sure to be in a position to have a real shot at getting to the ALCS or better in 2025-2028 by establishing your core.