Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Overall evaluation isn't based only on last season. The most significant stats posted (IMHO) were what Miranda put up in 2022 in a pennant race when he was probably the team's best hitter is July and August. 

Future projections weight the previous season the most, then 2 years ago, then 3. Anything outside of the last 3 seasons is mostly irrelevant for projecting the upcoming season.

A guide to the projection systems - Beyond the Box Score

If you want to talk about what Miranda put up during the pennant race you have to include his August and September where he posted an OPS of .705 and .715 (June/July were his best months). I wouldn't recommend cherry-picking just the best two months of anyone's career and using that as an expectation going forward but if you're going to do that you need to be fair and do that for Kirilloff and Santana as well.

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Honest question, what makes him elite with the glove? I know there is more than errors, but he committed 8 last year and 9 teams last year committed more than that.  (The Twins as a team only committed 6 at 1B last year.)

My thought is that an elite first baseman is the player who saves others an error more often than not, not how many errors he is charged with himself.  Errors are assigned by the official scorer, and it is purely subjective at times.  I want the guy who the other players trust with their errors.  My question is how is Santana in that area? 

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Kiriloff's bat is elite.

It isn't. An 800 OPS is not elite and his platoon split is horrendous.

[bighat]

36 minutes ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

I really enjoyed the play of Solano last year. Does anyone know if he's signed with another team?

Currently still a free agent, believe it or not. The guy hit .282 last year in 400 ABs, and is super flexible and can play multiple positions. Kind of surprising he hasn't been signed. 

[stringer bell]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Future projections weight the previous season the most, then 2 years ago, then 3. Anything outside of the last 3 seasons is mostly irrelevant for projecting the upcoming season.

A guide to the projection systems - Beyond the Box Score

If you want to talk about what Miranda put up during the pennant race you have to include his August and September where he posted an OPS of .705 and .715 (June/July were his best months). I wouldn't recommend cherry-picking just the best two months of anyone's career and using that as an expectation going forward but if you're going to do that you need to be fair and do that for Kirilloff and Santana as well.

I guess I got the months wrong. I know Miranda wore down late in the 2022 season. I was responding to a post that said that Severino was ahead of Miranda, the point being that hitting well in the majors is pretty significant compared to what a player put up in AA/AAA, especially when offense went pretty crazy in Triple A last year. 

[Mike Sixel]

Yuck. Santana is likely either at first or DH vs RH pitching. Not a fan at all. 

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Based on last season's results Miranda is behind Severino on the depth chart.

Miranda was so bad last season, it is hard to forget.

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

Miranda was so bad last season, it is hard to forget.

Yet his strikeout rate was only 15% and had a BABIP of .235.

If his shoulder was the cause for the decrease in his exit velocity and he puts that behind him, he could be the bat they needed to find but couldn't afford in free agency.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but this is not a dream I have. My dream is to find starters that don't need to be platooned, then stacking the bench with the best players you can fill it with. 

I get why the Twins are platooning right now, but it's highly inefficient to roster construction. Get these guys to hit either handed pitchers, and if they can't, keep looking.

Lefties who hit lefties pretty much don't exist. If you want an RH masher at the position, it's best to have a platoon partner on hand. I see your point about the roster restrictiveness but with Kirilloff being able to play OF, Miranda being able to play some 3B and both being able to DH, I don't see it as too cumbersome in this case. 

[TwinsDr2021]

43 minutes ago, Mark G said:

My thought is that an elite first baseman is the player who saves others an error more often than not, not how many errors he is charged with himself.  Errors are assigned by the official scorer, and it is purely subjective at times.  I want the guy who the other players trust with their errors.  My question is how is Santana in that area? 

I agree elite first baseman need to need to save others, but they also need to not commit errors.

Freeman has 10 errors in the last 537 games, Goldschmidt 11 in lat 625 games, Walker 13 in the last 409. Santana has committed 17 in the 313, and I think those guys are elite, I have always thought Santana was good, maybe pretty good but never thought he was elite. It just feels like Twin players or when players get to Minnesota all of sudden they are thought of better than they actually are.

[D.C Twins]

Sabato a prospect?  Ahhhh.....nooooooo.....

[nicksaviking]

19 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Lefties who hit lefties pretty much don't exist. If you want an RH masher at the position, it's best to have a platoon partner on hand. I see your point about the roster restrictiveness but with Kirilloff being able to play OF, Miranda being able to play some 3B and both being able to DH, I don't see it as too cumbersome in this case. 

The cumbersome part is the team feeling the need to get a Carlos Santana or a Manuel Margot. They can't be optioned and their ceilings are extremely low. Santana isn't a RH masher, last year was the first year in four seasons that he had an OPS over .800 vs lefties.

There's only ever going to be four bench spots at most. If this team thinks every lefty needs to be platooned, than they shouldn't have more than one or two in their starting lineup, it's just not an efficient roster otherwise.

But I don't think they all need to be platooned. Just let Julien and Wallner and Kirilloff keep facing left handers until they start doing it passably or prove that they can't. And if the team isn't willing to do that, these three players' value will NEVER be higher than it is now and they should be trading them for a top end starting pitcher.

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

 

It has been pointed out widely that Kirilloff was not a good defender at first base last year. I've said it a few times and I'll say it again that there is no reason why he can't be at least average at first base and probably much better than that. There were no red flags about his first base defense as he ascended to the majors and he looked good there in cameos in '21 and '22. Maybe it was something to do with injuries that he was playing with, maybe it was random, I don't know. I'll also state that I have a bias about first basemen being over six feet tall and prefer them to be left handed. 

 

We've discussed this before. And I just want to ask why you feel that way? Kiriloff on pop-ups.  Whew. But not just that. He goes after balls to his right hand side that he shouldn't and gets caught in that no man's land where it gets fielded by the 2nd baseman and he's caught out with the pitcher racing to cover 1st. His range is OK. But good 1st baseman seem to have that natural instinct. I said he's pretty good with the scoop. I agree he can get better. But I don't think he'll ever be considered above avg. Hey I hope you're right. 👍 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I guess I got the months wrong. I know Miranda wore down late in the 2022 season. I was responding to a post that said that Severino was ahead of Miranda, the point being that hitting well in the majors is pretty significant compared to what a player put up in AA/AAA, especially when offense went pretty crazy in Triple A last year. 

Except Miranda was worse than Severino last season while playing for the same team. Miranda had a 686 OPS in AAA and Severino had an 832 OPS at the same level. They will be competing to see who gets called up first this year and I don't think Miranda's two months in 2022 will matter.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If you have 5 guys with equally mediocre bats to choose from, pick the one who gives you the best defense that day and put him in the field. Most days that's Willi Castro.

Expanding on that comment, here is your list:

Quote

Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez

All of those guys can defend better than the starting position player they would replace. Against RHP you'll see them rotating through the field with Wallner, Julien, Kirilloff and Kepler sharing the DH spot. Against LHP we could see Jeffers DH.

[stringer bell]

23 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

We've discussed this before. And I just want to ask why you feel that way? Kiriloff on pop-ups.  Whew. But not just that. He goes after balls to his right hand side that he shouldn't and gets caught in that no man's land where it gets fielded by the 2nd baseman and he's caught out with the pitcher racing to cover 1st. His range is OK. But good 1st baseman seem to have that natural instinct. I said he's pretty good with the scoop. I agree he can get better. But I don't think he'll ever be considered above avg. Hey I hope you're right. 👍 

Pop ups--I know you mentioned it earlier, but he caught them didn't he? I think a guy like Alex, who has a lot of experience in the outfield as well, should be able to handle infield flies with more work on how they often come back towards the field. As far as some of the nuanced plays, yes some guys always seem to struggle, but that wasn't Kirilloff's rep at all, so maybe it's a bit of an outlier. To be honest, I remember Solano chasing more balls he shouldn't than Kirilloff. 

I watched AK pretty intently in  spring training of 2020 before COVID hit, mostly doing drills. He looked more than comfortable to my eyes and did make the scoops and fielded grounders routinely. Actually the only game action I saw of him that spring was in Clearwater. He ran down a pop fly that day and scooped a couple of throws. I don't know if any balls were hit on the ground to him.

In limited time at first base in '21 and '22, Kirilloff posted satisfactory defensive metrics. Last year, for whatever reason, they were very much subpar. Why would a 25-year old suddenly get that much worse at his position? I think if it is more than an outlier, it could well be his recuperation from two surgeries and the rehab the went with it and perhaps the should was a direct reason late in the 2023 season, I don't know. 

I've also stated that left handed throwers have advantages at first base. They can stretch a little further on the outfield side and throws to second and third are easier, as are cutoffs.

Bringing in Santana should send AK a message that he needs to work on his defense. I really don't like seeing youngish guys relegated to DHing if there isn't a limiting injury. I hope he claims the first base job full time and I think he's capable of that, if healthy.   

 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

The cumbersome part is the team feeling the need to get a Carlos Santana or a Manuel Margot. They can't be optioned and their ceilings are extremely low. Santana isn't a RH masher, last year was the first year in four seasons that he had an OPS over .800 vs lefties.

There's only ever going to be four bench spots at most. If this team thinks every lefty needs to be platooned, than they shouldn't have more than one or two in their starting lineup, it's just not an efficient roster otherwise.

But I don't think they all need to be platooned. Just let Julien and Wallner and Kirilloff keep facing left handers until they start doing it passably or prove that they can't. And if the team isn't willing to do that, these three players' value will NEVER be higher than it is now and they should be trading them for a top end starting pitcher.

Sure, but the point in question wasn't platooning everyone, it was about platooning Kirilloff and Miranda at first. I do think if both players rebound into form that'd be quite an effective setup. Santana was brought in because unfortunately it's not a setup the team can currently trust.

In general lefty hitters like Julien and Wallner and Kirilloff are never going to be good against LHP no matter how many reps they get. Platooning is a smart strategy to maximize offensive production. Although I did really like John Foley's piece the other day on the limitations of overdoing it, which might tie to your point.

[stringer bell]

44 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Except Miranda was worse than Severino last season while playing for the same team. Miranda had a 686 OPS in AAA and Severino had an 832 OPS at the same level. They will be competing to see who gets called up first this year and I don't think Miranda's two months in 2022 will matter.

Miranda was shut down from a shoulder problem that first surfaced in Spring Training. It was said when he was shut down for the year that he never really got through the pain and stiffness. While his poor hitting can't be 100% excused, the injury should also be considered when looking at his 2023 season. A year earlier, he had burned through AAA hitting better than anyone in the Twins' system IIRC. 

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Sure, but the point in question wasn't platooning everyone, it was about platooning Kirilloff and Miranda at first. I do think if both players rebound into form that'd be quite an effective setup. Santana was brought in because unfortunately it's not a setup the team can currently trust.

In general lefty hitters like Julien and Wallner and Kirilloff are never going to be good against LHP no matter how many reps they get. Platooning is a smart strategy to maximize offensive production. Although I did really like John Foley's piece the other day on the limitations of overdoing it, which might tie to your point.

We've had variations of this discussion for a while. The Twins had three young left handed hitting guys that hammered right handed pitching. All three were dramatically less effective against left handers. Resting LH hitters against the occasional southpaw makes sense, but automatically benching them no matter how they've been going might be an overreaction. Probably the thing that bothered many of us most was early pinch hitting for Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner--often out of the game by the fifth inning. If the Twins are going to have four left handed hitting regulars, maybe two and sometimes three could/should be on the bench versus a lefty, but I would hope that all would get more shots than they were given in 2023.

Kepler's usage is what I would hope the other guys get in the coming year. He wasn't strictly platooned, but he wasn't in the lineup frequently with a left handed starter on the mound. Max had close to 500 plate appearances and 80% were against right handers. 

I can excuse Baldelli for going to right handed options last year because, by and large, the right handed hitters did their job, especially compared to what the left handed hitters produced. Secondly, Farmer, Solano and Willi Castro were superior defensive options to Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner respectively. Going with the better defender in the late innings when you have a lead is solid strategy.                                         

[Schmoeman5]

30 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Pop ups--I know you mentioned it earlier, but he caught them didn't he? I think a guy like Alex, who has a lot of experience in the outfield as well, should be able to handle infield flies with more work on how they often come back towards the field. As far as some of the nuanced plays, yes some guys always seem to struggle, but that wasn't Kirilloff's rep at all, so maybe it's a bit of an outlier. To be honest, I remember Solano chasing more balls he shouldn't than Kirilloff. 

I watched AK pretty intently in  spring training of 2020 before COVID hit, mostly doing drills. He looked more than comfortable to my eyes and did make the scoops and fielded grounders routinely. Actually the only game action I saw of him that spring was in Clearwater. He ran down a pop fly that day and scooped a couple of throws. I don't know if any balls were hit on the ground to him.

In limited time at first base in '21 and '22, Kirilloff posted satisfactory defensive metrics. Last year, for whatever reason, they were very much subpar. Why would a 25-year old suddenly get that much worse at his position? I think if it is more than an outlier, it could well be his recuperation from two surgeries and the rehab the went with it and perhaps the should was a direct reason late in the 2023 season, I don't know. 

I've also stated that left handed throwers have advantages at first base. They can stretch a little further on the outfield side and throws to second and third are easier, as are cutoffs.

Bringing in Santana should send AK a message that he needs to work on his defense. I really don't like seeing youngish guys relegated to DHing if there isn't a limiting injury. I hope he claims the first base job full time and I think he's capable of that, if healthy.   

 

OK. I only mentioned Kirilloff and not Solano because Solano is no longer there. But yes I remember that too. Like I said. I hope you're right. I don't think he's terrible. I just don't think he  can be above avg. I'd be very happy if he were. Stable lineups are more comfortable than musical chairs. From what I've heard he's 100% ready to go physically as opposed to last year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It isn't. An 800 OPS is not elite and his platoon split is horrendous.

True, but the inverse is also has a ton of value, considering there are way more Right handed pitchers than left…

At 250 plate appearances 

maybe not “Elite” but I’ll take an .858 OPS on the strong side of a platoon.

those are some damn good hitters just ahead of him!

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Miranda was shut down from a shoulder problem that first surfaced in Spring Training. It was said when he was shut down for the year that he never really got through the pain and stiffness. While his poor hitting can't be 100% excused, the injury should also be considered when looking at his 2023 season. A year earlier, he had burned through AAA hitting better than anyone in the Twins' system IIRC. 

He is still rehabbing the same shoulder injury post-surgery. Even healthy in 2022 his end result was a 750 OPS. That's a reasonable expectation for Miranda and it isn't anything special for a 1B.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Those are some damn good hitters just ahead of him!

Agree. Brandon Belt is still looking for a team.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Agree. Brandon Belt is still looking for a team.

Sign him up!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

oh wait…. We root for the Twins

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

He is still rehabbing the same shoulder injury post-surgery. Even healthy in 2022 his end result was a 750 OPS. That's a reasonable expectation for Miranda and it isn't anything special for a 1B.

So then why would we care about Santana? That's like his best case scenario, and he can't be optioned or play any other position. If he goes in the tank again, the Twins are wasting one of their few bench spots on a guy who isn't hitting and can only play 1B. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

So then why would we care about Santana? That's like his best case scenario, and he can't be optioned or play any other position. If he goes in the tank again, the Twins are wasting one of their few bench spots on a guy who isn't hitting and can only play 1B. 

Because the alternative is Miranda who wasn't hitting OR playing defense worth a damn last year. There is a lot better chance Santana can provide a 750 OPS than Miranda, especially when Miranda is still rehabbing after shoulder surgery at the start of training camp. Plus, Santana can actually play 1B.

I don't know why people are concerned about optioning the bench players. They're all veterans who should be able to produce if they're not injured. If they are injured they'll go on the injured list.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Sure, but the point in question wasn't platooning everyone, it was about platooning Kirilloff and Miranda at first. I do think if both players rebound into form that'd be quite an effective setup. Santana was brought in because unfortunately it's not a setup the team can currently trust.

In general lefty hitters like Julien and Wallner and Kirilloff are never going to be good against LHP no matter how many reps they get. Platooning is a smart strategy to maximize offensive production. Although I did really like John Foley's piece the other day on the limitations of overdoing it, which might tie to your point.

What's the definition of "good against LHP?" Is there something specific about those 3 that make them unlikely to be good, or is it just lefties in general? Kepler has been pretty hit or miss against lefties, but had a 108 wRC+ against them last year.

I agree there's very few lefties he can mash lefties (Freddie Freeman, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Corey Seager, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper types being outliers), but there's certainly a number of lefties out there who can hold their own against same-side armed pitchers. Much of it is small sample size noise. To maximize offensive production you need to get your lefties to at least serviceable against lefties. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, bighat said:

Same. Just hard to bank on it or even expect it. Pulling for the guy for sure. 

This is why I understand and accept the Santana signing. I don’t love it, but I get it.

i still gotta bet on AK because he’s the strong side of the platoon and younger, he’s the most likely, and has the most upside.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

28 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because the alternative is Miranda who wasn't hitting OR playing defense worth a damn last year. There is a lot better chance Santana can provide a 750 OPS than Miranda, especially when Miranda is still rehabbing after shoulder surgery at the start of training camp. Plus, Santana can actually play 1B.

I don't know why people are concerned about optioning the bench players. They're all veterans who should be able to produce if they're not injured. If they are injured they'll go on the injured list.

That worked so well with Gallo

[DocBauer]

I guess the place to start is the signing of Santana. Tons of respect for the guy and his career. I don't see his signing this season  as a mistake, even if it's not exciting. There are questions about Miranda's shoulder still, Santana can hit LHP well, is a solid defensive 1B, and might even provide a little leadership/experience/know how to the younger players on the roster. All very salient positives about him.

He's also a career .227 hitter against RHP and .276 against RHP. And I know AVERAGE on it's own isn't an ideal indicator of production. And while he's  by no means incompetent against RHP, he still has a career OPS split of 46 points between his batting  sides. From 2020 through 2022 he batted a composite .180 against RHP. Now, he did see a rebound in 2023 to .231, which is actually above his career norm. But can he maintain that...not even improve...at age 38 in 2024? 

I am NOT bagging on the guy. I hope he really helps this year, and I respect him. But I think we just have to examine who he is and what he does at this point in his career. His best usage this season would be as a RH hitting 1B/DH/PH who get's a few games here and there as a LH batter when the matchups make sense. 

How I HOPE this all turns out in 2024:

KIRILLOFF:

He's a very talented hitter with good power and an improved eye and approach at the plate. He had no problems with his wrist last year, which has been the issue that held him back. He produced a 117 OPS+ and has legitimate 20 HR, 30+ Dbl power and the ability to hit and get OB a little. If things break right, his defense improves, he's healthy for the season, gets 450-500 AB, and produces the way he can, and the way he did in 2023, but for longer this season.

SANTANA: 

Guess I already said all that needs to be said. But I'll add, if he's getting 450-500 AB's this year, something has either gone unexpectedly good or bad. That just shouldn't be his role.

MIRANDA:

He gets his shoulder right. He plays 1B/DH and some 3B at St Paul and looks like his 201 milb and 2022 ML self and by July we're asking ourselves how to make room for him on the roster. He re-establishes himself as potentially being part of the future, or a nice trade piece.

JULIEN:

Lee will be up eventually. Hopefully not because someone has a massive injury that wipes out their season. He'll continue to work on his defense at 2B, he'll get DH time, and he'll continue to work on 1B and get in a few games here and there and show competency. It increases roster flexibility for the future, at the least.

SEVERINO:

Not going to really touch on him at the moment except to say he just needs to keep doing what he's been doing that. If he can, then the AVG and decent OB% and big time power will play at AAA the same way they did at AA. And if that happens, he'll put himself in to the running for playing time in 2025.