The Case for the Strategic Platoon Disadvantage

Impressive article. Thank you for laying the data out like this.

Don't let the pitcher get too comfortable. Makes sense, but I had never thought of it. 

Very interesting. 

Well done, it absolutely makes sense but I don't know that it will generally permeate lineup creation as a primary factor.  The only LH on the bench in that game that would have been a tough decision to start was Josh Lowe.  He was benched for Issac Parades at 3B and Harold Ramirez at DH.  Both good hitters on good years.  I bet the Rays would do the same thing again.

The factor of the 9th best RH hitter vs a decent lefty is the most likely culprit in the dataset.  Rosters just don't have that kind of makeup to get a real test of the theory.  In the Twins case that would be Vazquez.  Most managers would chose the Kepler defense and flexibility of the 2nd catcher on the bench.  

Against a lesser lefty, that Rays lineup rakes over time.  Good pitching still beats good hitting the majority of the time.  In the regular season, they probably have done something like that several times with success. Against a lefty having the playoffs of his life, who knows what might work.  Looking at the game log, maybe they could have pinch hit someone to change his groove.  It might have confused him enough to get him off track.  Leave it to the Rays to be the first to pinch hit backwards. 

Spring training is a good reminder with all the lineups and pitching moves that different factors are important at different times in the season.  Regular season lineups are created far differently from postseason.  This is your regularly scheduled reminder that analytics is not simply the use of data, it's knowing which data is important at the proper time.

The Rays now have another data point.

7 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

Which one of the Twins left handed options do you think present a defensive upgrade to a hypothetical right handed hitting platoon option?  There is a reason why the Twins did what they did last year.  

I could easily see a Castro, Buxton, Margot outfield this year but more likely Kepler stays in the field and Buck DHs for the partial rest. In a playoff lineup Kepler plays and Wallner sits. They will chose Kepler and Margot over Margot and Castro or Martin. 

Is there a statistical bias built into this analysis?  The selection of LH batters to face LH pitchers isn't random or uniform - the manager chooses who does and who does not play in that game.  You displayed in your table the four young lefty hitters whose results against lefty pitchers were abysmal, but you didn't show the numbers for Kepler and (gasp!) Gallo, who were weaker against lefties but not so horrible as to seem like black holes in the lineup.  More skillful, or at least more experienced, batters would make a difference in these outcomes (for the Twins, and for any team), wouldn't it?

Part of who is playing on a given day is health, part of it is matchups. None of the Twins left handed hitters had reverse platoon splits, but they faced several left handed pitchers who were weaker against left handed hitters. If you dig deeper, it may be that the all-right handed lineups were up against guys who were elite in 2023 and hence the Twins chances would be worse than facing a run-of-the-mill guy. I think there are too many variables to just say that a left handed bat or two should be inserted.