The Case for the Strategic Platoon Disadvantage - Caretaker Exclusive

[John Foley]

Should the Twins stack their lineup with right-handed hitters against left-handed pitching? Maybe not. Let’s investigate what happens when they deploy a few left-handed bats.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Tell me if this has ever been your reaction to a Twins lineup. Let’s say they are about to play a game against a probable left-handed starting pitcher — maybe like last June 19 against Boston, or last Sept. 22 against the Angels — and their starting lineup contains multiple left-handed-hitting position players.

What on Earth are they doing? Don’t they understand the platoon advantage? Don’t they realize their lefty hitters stink against lefty pitching?

Often, it's Max Kepler and his career .284 wOBA and 77 wRC+ marks against left-handed pitching taking up prime lineup real estate. (Those are 53 points and 36 points worse than his performance against right-handed pitching, respectively.) 

Other times, it’s Kepler and another (or two) of the younger left-handed hitters, like Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, or Trevor Larnach. They all theoretically could benefit long-term from reps against southpaws, but have demonstrated little to suggest they can hold their own against them in the present:

Sometimes last season, it was even Joey Gallo and his greater than 40% career whiff rate against left-handed pitching. In prior seasons, it had been Jake Cave, Nick Gordon, and Luis Arráez. No matter the configuration, the results haven’t been very good. Over the past three seasons, the Twins rank 20th in overall team production (.312 wOBA) against left-handed pitching, and 17th (.323) against left-handed starting pitching.

In a vacuum, including some left-handed hitters against left-handed pitching puts the Twins at a disadvantage. At the league level, the data is clear that there is a disadvantage for hitters when they are facing same-handed pitching. Since 2008, left-handed batters have performed 28 points of wOBA worse against left-handed pitching than they have against righties.

But daily lineup decisions aren’t made in a vacuum. Many different variables and considerations come into play. Kepler’s valuable defense in right field is one. The injury and availability status and current composition of the rest of the roster is another. The long-term development needs of young players might be another, among many others.

As ideal as it might appear to be in theory, rarely is it possible to stack the lineup with only right-handed hitters against left-handed pitching (or vice versa with left-handed hitters against right-handed pitching).

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[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

This is a very interesting analysis!

While I agree that the more granular data of by-pitch and by-batter shows a more beneficial result with 2 or more LHB, there's not much of a difference but actually a slight increase in team production with 1 LHB in the lineup. For example, if you start with with 7 RHB and 1 LHP in the lineup and compare that last spot I would choose a 0.336 wOBA righty over a 0.262 wOBA lefty even if the rest of the lineup gets a little stronger. A 0.336 wOBA is still around 10% better than league average and 0.262 is basically 2023 Javy Baez - I'd prefer to have fewer essentially guaranteed outs.

I also agree that conceptually the theory makes sense as to why this is effective - forcing a starter to use more of their arsenal would prevent them from dialing in on the gameplan for opposite-handed hitters. Which makes me think that if you're going to start a LHB for the Strategic Platoon Disadvantage™, I'd imagine you would ideally choose a batter with good contact skills who can work a count. In the Twins' case, that batter is seemingly Alex Kirilloff. 

This also makes me think that a LHB with minimal platoon splits might be an area of market inefficiency that the Twins could then target - if you can find that rare lefty who doesn't drop off the table against left-handed pitching you're propping up the rest of the lineup by playing them. Kepler does fit this bill to an extent - since 2018 he's got a wRC+ of 92 vs LHP which is #51 out of 150 LHB batters with 150 or more plate appearances against LHP. Just behind guys like Arraez (96), Devers (95) and Mullins (94). Joey Gallo up at #23 in that list with a wRC+ of 105 might make some people gag, though!

[Oldgoat_MN]

Impressive article. Thank you for laying the data out like this.

Don't let the pitcher get too comfortable. Makes sense, but I had never thought of it. 

Very interesting. 

[LyleCole]

And all of that is true, but then, what are the right handed hitting outfield alternatives?

 

In 2023 they had the following right handed hitters on the roster;

Michael Taylor, Byron Buxton, Jordan Lupelow, and Kyle Garlick.  They even played Kyle Farmer in the OF for a handful of games.  Obviouosly if healthy Buxton would be the main right handed hitter but he was unavailable in 2023.  

It is assumed the entire reason to trade for Manuel Margot is that he is a right handed hitter that can reasonably backup Buxton in CF.  He has a solid platoon split  with a .760 OPS against LHP vs. .664 vs RHP, but since he hits from same side as Buxton would only work as a platoon partner for Wallner or Kepler.  

One thing I think the Twins should try this spring training and then to start the minor league season is putting Jose Miranda in RF.  Of course, in 731 career professional baseball games he has played the OF exactly 3 games so it might be a defensive stretch.  He is a big guy, but reasonably athletic once he gets moving.  Adding some corner outfield and being a right handed hitter might give him the value he needs to make the major league roster in the future.

 

[Jocko87]

Well done, it absolutely makes sense but I don't know that it will generally permeate lineup creation as a primary factor.  The only LH on the bench in that game that would have been a tough decision to start was Josh Lowe.  He was benched for Issac Parades at 3B and Harold Ramirez at DH.  Both good hitters on good years.  I bet the Rays would do the same thing again.

The factor of the 9th best RH hitter vs a decent lefty is the most likely culprit in the dataset.  Rosters just don't have that kind of makeup to get a real test of the theory.  In the Twins case that would be Vazquez.  Most managers would chose the Kepler defense and flexibility of the 2nd catcher on the bench.  

Against a lesser lefty, that Rays lineup rakes over time.  Good pitching still beats good hitting the majority of the time.  In the regular season, they probably have done something like that several times with success. Against a lefty having the playoffs of his life, who knows what might work.  Looking at the game log, maybe they could have pinch hit someone to change his groove.  It might have confused him enough to get him off track.  Leave it to the Rays to be the first to pinch hit backwards. 

Spring training is a good reminder with all the lineups and pitching moves that different factors are important at different times in the season.  Regular season lineups are created far differently from postseason.  This is your regularly scheduled reminder that analytics is not simply the use of data, it's knowing which data is important at the proper time.

The Rays now have another data point.

[jkcarew]

I mean you do have to factor in the defense. Also need to factor the offensive alternative. If a lefty can OPS+ 90 against LHP, and the RH platoon option is a 102…but the LH starter is better defensively…why bother. It’s different math, is we’re taking 70 OPS+ vs 102. That type of math forces your hand.

With the advent of load management, it’s kind of moot. The RH bats will play. But I have no problem leaving LH bats in the lineup…especially as the young LH bats are still learning what adjustments might work.

[Parker Hageman]

Love this and welcome to the Caretaker team!

[LyleCole]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

I mean you do have to factor in the defense. Also need to factor the offensive alternative. If a lefty can OPS+ 90 against LHP, and the RH platoon option is a 102…but the LH starter is better defensively…why bother. It’s different math, is we’re taking 70 OPS+ vs 102. That type of math forces your hand.

With the advent of load management, it’s kind of moot. The RH bats will play. But I have no problem leaving LH bats in the lineup…especially as the young LH bats are still learning what adjustments might work.

Which one of the Twins left handed options do you think present a defensive upgrade to a hypothetical right handed hitting platoon option?  There is a reason why the Twins did what they did last year.  

[Jocko87]

7 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

Which one of the Twins left handed options do you think present a defensive upgrade to a hypothetical right handed hitting platoon option?  There is a reason why the Twins did what they did last year.  

I could easily see a Castro, Buxton, Margot outfield this year but more likely Kepler stays in the field and Buck DHs for the partial rest. In a playoff lineup Kepler plays and Wallner sits. They will chose Kepler and Margot over Margot and Castro or Martin. 

[JD-TWINS]

Castro - Buxton - Santana - Lewis - Kepler - Correa - Farmer - Catcher - Margot

Castro & Satana can flip with pitching changes to RH. Buxton has good reverse splits v. RH as well.

I think this is our typical initial line-up v. LH pitching. Order may be moved around considerably but these 9 guys make sense.

[ashbury]

Is there a statistical bias built into this analysis?  The selection of LH batters to face LH pitchers isn't random or uniform - the manager chooses who does and who does not play in that game.  You displayed in your table the four young lefty hitters whose results against lefty pitchers were abysmal, but you didn't show the numbers for Kepler and (gasp!) Gallo, who were weaker against lefties but not so horrible as to seem like black holes in the lineup.  More skillful, or at least more experienced, batters would make a difference in these outcomes (for the Twins, and for any team), wouldn't it?

[John Foley]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Is there a statistical bias built into this analysis?  The selection of LH batters to face LH pitchers isn't random or uniform - the manager chooses who does and who does not play in that game.  You displayed in your table the four young lefty hitters whose results against lefty pitchers were abysmal, but you didn't show the numbers for Kepler and (gasp!) Gallo, who were weaker against lefties but not so horrible as to seem like black holes in the lineup.  More skillful, or at least more experienced, batters would make a difference in these outcomes (for the Twins, and for any team), wouldn't it?

Kepler's split numbers are in the 3rd paragraph and the rest of the data throughout includes all Twins left-handed batters 2021-2023. 

[tony&rodney]

Always enjoyed reading your stuff over on Twinkietown John. 

Hope Julien has over 600 PA appearances this year.

On a separate note, as a left-handed pitcher it was always much easier to face a lineup of all right handed batters. 

[stringer bell]

Part of who is playing on a given day is health, part of it is matchups. None of the Twins left handed hitters had reverse platoon splits, but they faced several left handed pitchers who were weaker against left handed hitters. If you dig deeper, it may be that the all-right handed lineups were up against guys who were elite in 2023 and hence the Twins chances would be worse than facing a run-of-the-mill guy. I think there are too many variables to just say that a left handed bat or two should be inserted. 

[John Foley]

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Part of who is playing on a given day is health, part of it is matchups. None of the Twins left handed hitters had reverse platoon splits, but they faced several left handed pitchers who were weaker against left handed hitters. If you dig deeper, it may be that the all-right handed lineups were up against guys who were elite in 2023 and hence the Twins chances would be worse than facing a run-of-the-mill guy. I think there are too many variables to just say that a left handed bat or two should be inserted. 

That's an interesting thought. I went back and checked. The opposing starters on the all-right lineup days were:

• MIL Aaron Ashby in 3rd career start (29 pts of wOBA better vs. RHB career)
• CHC Justin Steele (no career split difference, .300 wOBA against both sides)
• CLE Logan Allen (two times --- 43 pts of wOBA better vs. LHB career)
• TOR Yusei Kikuchi (75 pts of wOBA better vs. LHB career)
• COL Brent Suter (as 1 IP opener --- 5 pts of wOBA better vs. RHB career)