Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base

[nicksaviking]

36 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because the alternative is Miranda who wasn't hitting OR playing defense worth a damn last year. There is a lot better chance Santana can provide a 750 OPS than Miranda, especially when Miranda is still rehabbing after shoulder surgery at the start of training camp. Plus, Santana can actually play 1B.

I don't know why people are concerned about optioning the bench players. They're all veterans who should be able to produce if they're not injured. If they are injured they'll go on the injured list.

It's not just Miranda though because he has options. It's Santana vs the field. Miranda, Lee, Severino, Camargo, Martin, Prato, Keiresy, Isola, Helman, Williams. One or more of those guys is almost certainly going to be better than Santana and you don't have to stick with ANY of them all year. Not only do those guys all have position flexibility, but they won't be wasting a bench spot if they don't hit, they'll be in St. Paul.

And Santana hasn't produced three out of the last four years. Why would we think he's going to beat those 25% at best odds this year? He had a sub .700 OPS every year from 2020-22 and that's supposed to be Plan A for the starting 1B on a team that thinks it's contending for a World Series? 

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

That worked so well with Gallo

Gallo had a terrible track record from the previous year and they signed him to be a starter, not a backup. Not the same.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It's Santana vs the field. Miranda, Lee, Severino, Camargo, Martin, Prato, Keirsey, Isola, Helman, Williams. One or more of those guys is almost certainly going to be better than Santana and you don't have to stick with ANY of them all year. Not only do those guys all have position flexibility, but they won't be wasting a bench spot if they don't hit, they'll be in St. Paul.

None of them individually is more likely to be a contributor than Santana. By the time you figure out which one of them has taken a step forward in production it will be June or July.

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Honestly, Santana is not where I’d place my bet. If Kirilloff and Miranda are so lost/injured that they are entirely ineffective, my bet would Ed Julien moves to 1 and Lee comes up to play second.

id put my money on Kirilloff too

I don't understand why the Twins tried to force Julien at 2B during his years in the minors & his rookie year when it was easy to see that Julien's future & ability was at 1B. And have those years to master that position. 1B was the Twins' worst position last season & I couldn't understand why the Twins didn't bring Julien up right away if they had we'd fare much better there & we wouldn't have to sign anyone outside the organization.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

None of them individually is more likely to be a contributor than Santana. By the time you figure out which one of them has taken a step forward in production it will be June or July.

I clearly said that wasn't the point. It's not an individual matchup. The odds that it would take until June to find a match are no higher than the odds that Santana will be bad during that period.

Let me put it this way, what happens if Santana stinks again and now two of your bench spots are filled with a catcher only and a 1B only? That's awful roster management. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Let me put it this way, what happens if Santana stinks again?

The same thing that happens if Kirilloff stinks again, they lose some games. It's only a bad move if the Twins fail to react to reality and adjust. Yes, it took them forever to adjust to Gallo's disappointing offense last year but they also didn't have many other options to try instead - Miranda was awful, Larnach was bad and Buxton was injured.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I couldn't understand why the Twins didn't bring Julien up right away

He only played 38 games at AAA. He started the season on the roster and hit .222 before getting sent down. After a month he was back, hit .229 in May and got sent back for all of a week. Then he was back to stay. This statement is just revisionist history.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Well no. Willi is the Twins best returning defender from 2023 according to runs saved (and my eyeball test). He can take center for Buxton to DH, left for Wallner or Kepler to DH, second for Julien to DH or third for Lewis to DH. Same idea, but I doubt Willi is the DH more than once in a blue moon. 

If they are facing a RH pitcher & Buxton starts in CF………I like the other guys playing their positions (Wallner-Kepler-Julien) with Castro as the DH.

Do I think he’ll have opportunities (lots) to play CF & Buxton  could be the DH, sure!

It will be interesting to see the Santana/Kirilloff split at 1B.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

It's not just Miranda though because he has options. It's Santana vs the field. Miranda, Lee, Severino, Camargo, Martin, Prato, Keiresy, Isola, Helman, Williams. One or more of those guys is almost certainly going to be better than Santana and you don't have to stick with ANY of them all year. Not only do those guys all have position flexibility, but they won't be wasting a bench spot if they don't hit, they'll be in St. Paul.

And Santana hasn't produced three out of the last four years. Why would we think he's going to beat those 25% at best odds this year? He had a sub .700 OPS every year from 2020-22 and that's supposed to be Plan A for the starting 1B on a team that thinks it's contending for a World Series? 

 

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

None of them individually is more likely to be a contributor than Santana. By the time you figure out which one of them has taken a step forward in production it will be June or July.

I think there is merit in both positions here.  Santana's last 4 years definitely do not instill a great deal of confidence for me and there is always the threat of further decline at 38.  The potential for greater ceiling and a long-term contributor is also a consideration.  On the other hand, the safest path is to start with the veteran and replace him when one of those options mentioned demonstrates they are ready.  Of course, we know they will likely give the veteran a longer leash than most of us would.  Perhaps the silver lining is that all of this should be worked out in time to construct the best team for October.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Gallo had a terrible track record from the previous year and they signed him to be a starter, not a backup. Not the same.

The Op has Santana as the starter, as do several posters, and Santana has been mediocre to bad for 4 years… I fail to see the difference other than the dollars.

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If they are facing a RH pitcher & Buxton starts in CF………I like the other guys playing their positions (Wallner-Kepler-Julien) with Castro as the DH.

If Castro is in the lineup he should probably be in the field. Most of his value is his ability to play above average defense at many positions. Good time to give a different player a rest day at DH.

[John Belinski]

I always assumed that 1st base was easy to play so have the best player who can hit playing 1st base. Most teams have a good hitter play 1st base and that should decide who the Twins play at 1st base.

[KirbyDome89]

17 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He only played 38 games at AAA. He started the season on the roster and hit .222 before getting sent down. After a month he was back, hit .229 in May and got sent back for all of a week. Then he was back to stay. This statement is just revisionist history.

He didn't start the season on the active roster. 

He (Julien) also had a .762 OPS in April/May for an offensively challenged team. That isn't exactly amazing, but it's not like the Twins were so loaded they couldn't carve out ABs for the guy. 

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He didn't start the season on the active roster. 

He (Julien) also had a .762 OPS in April/May for an offensively challenged team. That isn't exactly amazing, but it's not like the Twins were so loaded they couldn't carve out ABs for the guy. 

He was also horrible defensively in April and May. They sent him back to AAA for a month and he got better. Buxton was the full-time DH so he had to play a position or go back to AAA.

[stringer bell]

On 2/28/2024 at 8:44 AM, stringer bell said:

It has been pointed out widely that Kirilloff was not a good defender at first base last year. I've said it a few times and I'll say it again that there is no reason why he can't be at least average at first base and probably much better than that. There were no red flags about his first base defense as he ascended to the majors and he looked good there in cameos in '21 and '22. Maybe it was something to do with injuries that he was playing with, maybe it was random, I don't know. I'll also state that I have a bias about first basemen being over six feet tall and prefer them to be left handed. 

 

Just to show I'm not blind to it, AK was charged with two errors today in the game against Atlanta, one a throw and the other a missed pickoff throw. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

He was also horrible defensively in April and May. They sent him back to AAA for a month and he got better. Buxton was the full-time DH so he had to play a position or go back to AAA.

Solano was playing 1B basically full time until mid May with an OPS 100 points below what Julien posted. Yeah Julien was a butcher at 2B, but it's not like the Twins were trotting out anybody elite, or even close to it at 1B. He didn't get better because he was up and down 2x, he started to put up some impressive numbers because the team decided to feed him some consistent playing time from June onward. 

 

[PseudoSABR]

On 2/28/2024 at 7:51 AM, jorgenswest said:

The roster construction with three short side platoon players makes it difficult to hope. Someone of Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez needs to start against right handed pitching. All are projected to be below average against right handed pitching in what is essentially a DH opening. The only one with options is Castro so I guess they could send him out for a good bat against right handed pitching in order to realize that hope. The only other way to realize that hope is to hope for one of the other short side platoon players to get injured.

Castro will sub in the field, allowing them to rest a regular at DH against RHers.  This probably Rocco's preferred outcome, rather than a dedicated DH.  Though I imagine we will see a lot of Santana/AK combo at 1b/DH against RH early on, but as the season wears on, we'll see players rotate through the DH, and Castro get plenty at bats against RHers which he's just fine at.

[jorgenswest]

13 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Castro will sub in the field, allowing them to rest a regular at DH against RHers.  This probably Rocco's preferred outcome, rather than a dedicated DH.  Though I imagine we will see a lot of Santana/AK combo at 1b/DH against RH early on, but as the season wears on, we'll see players rotate through the DH, and Castro get plenty at bats against RHers which he's just fine at.

Wouldn’t this assume in the time when everyone is healthy? If they lose Lewis or Correa or Buxton for some time Castro can plug in any of those places. It would really have helped to retain or acquire one more everyday bat. I would have kept Polanco and not tendered Farmer. Farmer and the portion they are paying DeSclafani is virtually the same as Polanco’s salary. I would prefer Polanco and Varland and Alcala (for Topa). They also could have combined the Farmer/Santana/Margot dollars and signed an everyday bat like Turner or even Martinez. 

[PseudoSABR]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Wouldn’t this assume in the time when everyone is healthy? If they lose Lewis or Correa or Buxton for some time Castro can plug in any of those places. It would really have helped to retain or acquire one more everyday bat. I would have kept Polanco and not tendered Farmer. Farmer and the portion they are paying DeSclafani is virtually the same as Polanco’s salary. I would prefer Polanco and Varland and Alcala (for Topa). They also could have combined the Farmer/Santana/Margot dollars and signed an everyday bat like Turner or even Martinez. 

I love Polanco, but there's literally no one to back up SS without Farmer. I guess Castro or Lewis, but those days are goneby.  If regulars are injured, we can draw from the Lanarchs, Martins, Mirandas, and Lees in AAA, and the calculus changes some but not much.

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Wouldn’t this assume in the time when everyone is healthy? If they lose Lewis or Correa or Buxton for some time Castro can plug in any of those places. It would really have helped to retain or acquire one more everyday bat. I would have kept Polanco and not tendered Farmer. Farmer and the portion they are paying DeSclafani is virtually the same as Polanco’s salary. I would prefer Polanco and Varland and Alcala (for Topa). They also could have combined the Farmer/Santana/Margot dollars and signed an everyday bat like Turner or even Martinez. 

 

11 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

I love Polanco, but there's literally no one to back up SS without Farmer. I guess Castro or Lewis, but those days are goneby.  If regulars are injured, we can draw from the Lanarchs, Martins, Mirandas, and Lees in AAA, and the calculus changes some but not much.

Polanco was going to be a bench player.   While he is a better overall player, Farmer is simply a much better fit for this roster.   The primary role is platooning with Julien and Farmer has a career wRC+ against LHP 26 points higher than Polanco and Farmer is a viable back-up at SS.  We also would not have gotten nearly as much in trade for Farmer.  This was a no-brainer.

[Schmoeman5]

On 2/29/2024 at 2:11 PM, stringer bell said:

Just to show I'm not blind to it, AK was charged with two errors today in the game against Atlanta, one a throw and the other a missed pickoff throw. 

He didn't look much better today vs Phillies