Concerns That Starting Pitcher Trade Market Has Stalled

[Brock Beauchamp]

All quiet on the pitcher front.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote this excellent write-up about both the reliever and starting pitcher winter markets. While the reliever free agent market seems to have stalled on Josh Hader, Feinsand goes on to point out that the starting pitching market hasn't fared much better with several high-profile free agents still on the market, headlined by Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

In a cascading effect, this has caused the starting pitcher trade market to be equally slow, so much so that one NL executive is quoted saying "I don’t think the trade market will be very hot in the next month". That's terrible news for the Twins, who appear unable to compete on the free agent market and will need to pull off a trade to improve the 2024 squad.

Read the piece linked above, just try not to get too depressed while doing so.

View full rumor

[nicksaviking]

Even if they could compete on the free agent market, I don't want those guys. I want the young guys in their primes on other teams!

[DJL44]

At this point teams are going to wait and see what their scouts think of the prospects after an offseason of training.

[sweetmusicviola16]

42 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Even if they could compete on the free agent market, I don't want those guys. I want the young guys in their primes on other teams!

I'd love to have Snell. We won't be in on him however. He has already turned down 5/150 from NYY. I don't want him for a price in excess of that.

With that said I would like to see us grab Ryu and get the few healthy innings he'd muster.

As for a trade for an SP I'm far less certain of it happening than in the past and from when the off season began. I think the price is high in both prospect cost and salary, so I'm guessing the Duo will come up empty this time.

[cmoss84]

Would anyone give Woodruff something like 5/75? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

It’s hard to get worked up now when the offseason is nowhere close to over though right?

[Fatbat]

Just in sheer numbers of mediocre past results pitchers, the Twins have plenty of options and chances to get 1or2 guys to change results in ‘24.  We are thin in SP depth and that will best be solved closer to the trade deadline. The FO will have a spreadsheet of possible trade candidates to target by august. They will get a guy. Hopefully the right guy. 

[Blyleven2011]

How I look at it , the starting pitching trade market has stalled for all the other 29 teams ...

Our front office hasn't even started to replace our strengths from last years lost starters ( this should be their priority  ) ...

subtract,  subtract  and subtract to save a buck ...

Starting pitchers won the season last year for us with the lineup helping in  the last half of the season  ...

Everyone needs pitching and teams are signing alot of depth arms to minor league contracts  , but no significant trades have been  made recently  ...

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Would anyone give Woodruff something like 5/75? 

No, he's not going to pitch in 2024. If/when he signs a deal, it will likely be a two-year deal with the expectation he won't pitch the first year.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I'd love to have Snell. We won't be in on him however. He has already turned down 5/150 from NYY. I don't want him for a price in excess of that.

With that said I would like to see us grab Ryu and get the few healthy innings he'd muster.

As for a trade for an SP I'm far less certain of it happening than in the past and from when the off season began. I think the price is high in both prospect cost and salary, so I'm guessing the Duo will come up empty this time.

I don't want Snell though, I want someone more reliable without control issues. I want the younger guys on other teams.

And an oompa loompa.

[Jocko87]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

At this point teams are going to wait and see what their scouts think of the prospects after an offseason of training.

I posited that as possibly the correct strategy for the Twins this year in another post.  I think it has merit, especially considering the way the market is looking.  Get more info on our prospects and young pitchers, more pitchers come available as teams fall out of contention and prices are cheaper, in dollars certainly but prospects as well.  They have enough to win the division now.

As for the market as a whole, we should probably stop looking at it as a guy here and a guy there holding up the market.  The elephant in the room is standing on our chests.  League payroll is trending to at best break even if not be down year over year.  We are dead in the middle of a standoff, maybe even a full reset of the economics of the sport and people want to talk about Josh Hader holding up the market?  Crazytown. 

I keep seeing "self-imposed" used with payroll limitations and it drives me nuts.  "Hey lil Johnny, your dad got a 25% paycut at work with no short term way to pick up any more shifts so we are "self-imposing" a limit on our baseball this season.  We can still play in the yard but no travel ball, OK?"  "But mom, what about your cigarettes and vodka?"  "This is about future spend, not contracted spend, Johnny, it's different."

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Would anyone give Woodruff something like 5/75? 

Probably.  Would he take it?  Probably not.

[wabene]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I posited that as possibly the correct strategy for the Twins this year in another post.  I think it has merit, especially considering the way the market is looking.  Get more info on our prospects and young pitchers, more pitchers come available as teams fall out of contention and prices are cheaper, in dollars certainly but prospects as well.  They have enough to win the division now.

As for the market as a whole, we should probably stop looking at it as a guy here and a guy there holding up the market.  The elephant in the room is standing on our chests.  League payroll is trending to at best break even if not be down year over year.  We are dead in the middle of a standoff, maybe even a full reset of the economics of the sport and people want to talk about Josh Hader holding up the market?  Crazytown. 

I keep seeing "self-imposed" used with payroll limitations and it drives me nuts.  "Hey lil Johnny, your dad got a 25% paycut at work with no short term way to pick up any more shifts so we are "self-imposing" a limit on our baseball this season.  We can still play in the yard but no travel ball, OK?"  "But mom, what about your cigarettes and vodka?"  "This is about future spend, not contracted spend, Johnny, it's different."

In an effort to keep you from going nuts consider the DECADES of low payrolls, of not spending to our market share. If this was accompanied with years of out spending our market share to help prop a winning window open, then the complaints would be hollow. 

[Eris]

A stalled market is what happens when the price of obtaining pitching becomes insanely expensive. At some point teams can’t justify the cost either in terms of $$ or trade capital. 

[Parfigliano]

14 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Would anyone give Woodruff something like 5/75? 

No he isnt even playing in '24.  I would not bet on 4 additional years for a guy coming off surgery.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Even if they could compete on the free agent market, I don't want those guys. I want the young guys in their primes on other teams!

So do the other teams….

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Would anyone give Woodruff something like 5/75? 

Doubt he would sign for that, even though he’s sitting a year……..that’s areal reach for a club without knowing he can throw. Seems most of the re-hab deals are 2 years - maybe 3 years. $$ & timing don’t seem to fit Twins but maybe a team would offer that to him?

[JD-TWINS]

I saw a pitching list (link) here a couple days ago that was related to Starting Pitching Value for Fantasy leagues. Anyway, Lopez was 11th & Ryan & Ober were 30 & 31. I think Paddack was 82? Anyway, I don’t think we’re getting a pitcher in trade much better than our current #2/#3 guys. Luzardo was valued at 26th.

While I think pursuing a trade for an arm makes sense, even through to the Deadline in July, it makes sense to sign a FA to help with effective depth soon. We could sign Clevinger and spend $14-$15M. We could then continue to pursue a trade & if successful we could trade at the deadline to fill offensive hole if needed. If Varland “gets pushed” into the Pen that would be a bonus!

Pitching $$ can come from moving Polanco, which needs to happen anyway with the current roster and 2B capabilities from Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Martin - Castro …………..Lee/Lewis at some point.

I don’t see a need for only one path to pitching depth. 

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, Gray was lucky to get his contract. I have been saying this for the last few years, teams aren't going to pay 20+ million (or whatever top dollar is) to a starting pitchers that isn't going to consistently be pitching in the 7th inning. Why pay a pitcher 25 million to pitch 5 innings and go the cheap route for the last 4, it doesn't make business or baseball sense.

 

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

In an effort to keep you from going nuts consider the DECADES of low payrolls, of not spending to our market share. If this was accompanied with years of out spending our market share to help prop a winning window open, then the complaints would be hollow. 

Meh, that's about as nuts as I get.  I realize I'm one of but a few voices of reason and I'm cool with that.  I'm pretty confident that even had they spent money in the bad years it would have been spent badly so its kinda a wash.  This is a new front office who seems more than happy to spend the last penny allocated and ask for more.

You can look at it any way you want.  I say the spend for this year happened last year in Correa and Lopez.  I remember making Kirby Puckett the highest paid player in the game (for a few weeks), Joe Mauer the highest paid catcher ever (for ten years) and 2 of the top 15 all time AAV contracts in baseball history in the last two years.  All of that spend was critiqued widely so in a no win situation what would you do?  Hold the line.  They are doing the right thing.

[Cris E]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

A stalled market is what happens when the price of obtaining pitching becomes insanely expensive. At some point teams can’t justify the cost either in terms of $$ or trade capital. 

It's more than that, because that was true last year and they were still throwing cash around like drunken sailors.  The difference this year is the uncertainty around so many teams' revenues.  MLB has to get a broadcast plan out there in the next few weeks, or at least route the bones of what the plan will be to the owners, so that they can nail down their budgets and start making some plans. There are too many good players on the sidelines, and too many holes on teams that should be spending money to have things stagnate much longer. Moves will be made.

[August J Gloop]

The main reason the Trade market has stalled is because at least 11 teams don't really know how much money they will have for next year. The Fish don't know if they really need to trade Luzardo now or if they can wait until the deadline. The Ms don't know if they actually need to find a way to get two infielders for a net price of $0 or not. 

Literally nobody has what the Twins have: Two reliable MLB vets on great one year deals. Quality bats with limited risk. Small enough contracts that if you offer up 1 good cost controlled MLB pitcher, you could get them for actual 0.  Blake Snell isn't holding that up. The Yankees don't have Polo and Max, No Phils, Atlanta, nobody. Teams that miss out on Snell can't pivot to offering up a 3 win player for free and the Twins have two players who fit that bill. 

[Doctor Gast]

Many teams are in the same boat as the Twins, no $. Maybe a few who are in a little bit better situation will wait out for a great FA deal. But with trades, there's no $ involved you just have to match our strength to their weakness & their strength to our weakness. Find a way.

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I saw a pitching list (link) here a couple days ago that was related to Starting Pitching Value for Fantasy leagues. Anyway, Lopez was 11th & Ryan & Ober were 30 & 31. I think Paddack was 82? Anyway, I don’t think we’re getting a pitcher in trade much better than our current #2/#3 guys. Luzardo was valued at 26th.

Those are fantasy ranking and can be summarily ignored.  No one on the planet thinks Ryan and Ober would be #1 starters on a different team.  The Twins certainly don't; they didn't trust Ryan to start game 1 of the ALDS on full rest.  That is much more meaningful in terms of how the Twins value him than fantasy baseball ratings.

[howeda7]

At this point just sign Clevinger, Michael A Taylor and Carlos Santana (net of about $20 million) and trade Kepler. That leaves a payroll of ~$130 million which isn't unreasonable no matter the exact TV $$. Platoon Buxton/Kiriloff in RF or play Buxton in CF if by some miracle they're both healthy all year.

[Heistyman]

The agents are waiting on the TV deals.  Increased cash flow will make the markets more competitive.

[TopGunn#22]

I think Jocko is on to something when he says "we're in the middle of a standoff."  At first you could have said it was kind of subtle.  Heck, when the Dodgers were spending at the rate they were, that was just one of the "haves" in baseball's economics doing what they always do.  You can include the Yankees in this example because they traded for Juan Soto with the plan that they would spend what it would take to keep him beyond this season. 

But there IS something going on below the surface that is more than just the odd "why haven't Snell and Montgomery signed yet" speculation.  Hader finally signed with the Astros just last night and while he's a tremendous closer the money was yet again insane for a team that already had a pretty good closer.  

I for one won't just disdainfully discard what JD-Twins had to say about the Fantasy Baseball rankings of starting pitchers either.  It isn't a perfect comparison, but I'm glad he took the time to share it.  It's an interesting note that shows one particular valuation of something.  In this case starting pitchers.  More information is always better than NO information.  I took that for what it was..."interesting."  Not that I would use that as my "be all, end all" evaluation of the value or market for starting pitchers.

I'm beginning to agree that we might not see a trade by the Twins anytime soon.  We certainly aren't going to see them sign Snell, Montgomery or Bellinger.  However...with the Blue Jays just signing the Cuban pitcher, Rodriguez, this COULD open the door to an Alex Manoah deal.  Was the Rodriguez signing just for depth or to open up a possible deal?  We'll see.

In a deal like that, Polanco seems much more likely to go than Kepler.  The Blue Jays already have an OF of Kiermeier, flanked by George Springer and Dalton Varsho.  They don't have much at 2B.  Polanco and something else for Manoah is still a possibility.  

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Those are fantasy ranking and can be summarily ignored.  No one on the planet thinks Ryan and Ober would be #1 starters on a different team.  The Twins certainly don't; they didn't trust Ryan to start game 1 of the ALDS on full rest.  That is much more meaningful in terms of how the Twins value him than fantasy baseball ratings.

At the time it was known across the Country in the media, & to anyone paying attention, that Ryan’s record at home was much better than his road record, hence the Ober start in Houston……..nobody thinks either of these guys is an ACE or that they are #1’s. However, their performances from ‘22 forward are pretty good & the fans should quit whining/pining for some savior because the current rotation is so poor or is in disarray. Could use more depth, that’s a given! These guys don’t suck or they wouldn’t be listed this high by guys that pay lots of attention to stats & results.

[dxpavelka]

On 1/19/2024 at 8:56 AM, JD-TWINS said:

I saw a pitching list (link) here a couple days ago that was related to Starting Pitching Value for Fantasy leagues. Anyway, Lopez was 11th & Ryan & Ober were 30 & 31. I think Paddack was 82? Anyway, I don’t think we’re getting a pitcher in trade much better than our current #2/#3 guys. Luzardo was valued at 26th.

While I think pursuing a trade for an arm makes sense, even through to the Deadline in July, it makes sense to sign a FA to help with effective depth soon. We could sign Clevinger and spend $14-$15M. We could then continue to pursue a trade & if successful we could trade at the deadline to fill offensive hole if needed. If Varland “gets pushed” into the Pen that would be a bonus!

Pitching $$ can come from moving Polanco, which needs to happen anyway with the current roster and 2B capabilities from Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Martin - Castro …………..Lee/Lewis at some point.

I don’t see a need for only one path to pitching depth. 

It's less about getting a guy much better than our current projected 2 and 3 and more about getting more guys who can be 2 and 3 and 4 and hoping that one of them approaches number one.  Nobody saw Gray or Lopez more than number twos but having both of them gave us more chances of one of them blossoming.

 

[old nurse]

On 1/18/2024 at 5:54 PM, Cory Engelhardt said:

It’s hard to get worked up now when the offseason is nowhere close to over though right?

The fist line he sings is the problem