Does the Twins FO know the off-season started?

[CoastiePilot08]

Way to kill all the momentum and good feelings from last season.

sigh. 

[Nine of twelve]

As for me, I'm not unhappy or angry. It's much better to decline to make a trade or signing offer than to make a bad one just for the sake of making it look like they are doing something.

[BiggestRoccoFan]

6 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

As for me, I'm not unhappy or angry. It's much better to decline to make a trade or signing offer than to make a bad one just for the sake of making it look like they are doing something.

Well our front office has no pulse right now.

We end the season winning a playoff series and we do nothing to improve the club.

I don't want to here anymore about the TV revenue $.

That is just an excuse.

The Royals are in the same boat and are being aggressive.

I thought it was incredibly stupid of the front office to come out and say they were slashing payroll. 

If you are going to slash payroll just do it and most of this fan base would not even notice.

[wabene]

10 minutes ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

If you are going to slash payroll just do it and most of this fan base would not even notice.

While this makes some sense and the timing of the announcement was a buzz kill, they would get roasted for not being transparent. When your job requires a tough task, it is prudent not to hesitate. 

[gunnarthor]

Hey, after eight seasons and a billion dollars in payroll, they won a playoff series. How can you question them? Plus, they let go a lot of longtime scouts and staff and announced they'd slash payroll. Be more optimistic.

[Craig Arko]

Seems to be pretty true to form to me.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think they are aware that the world series has been completed, and that today is 12/18/2023. 

[Mike Sixel]

which player you realistically wanted is off the board? MAYBE Wacha, maybe. 

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

which player you realistically wanted is off the board? MAYBE Wacha, maybe. 

Id go with the young guys they presently have over Wacha.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Id go with the young guys they presently have over Wacha.

Agreed. Not sure everyone else does

[nicksaviking]

I'm quite certain we've seen this exact headline every offseason for the past five years.

[Riverbrian]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm quite certain we've seen this exact headline every offseason for the past five years.

It shows up in December consistently without fail like Egg Nog suddenly appears at the supermarket in December.  

 

 

[stringer bell]

I'm hearing rumblings that there might be some movement on TV rights. I suspect that clarity about revenue will make it easier to make personnel decisions. 

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'm hearing rumblings that there might be some movement on TV rights. I suspect that clarity about revenue will make it easier to make personnel decisions. 

Yeah Amazon might be buying Diamond:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/amazon-diamond-sports-discussing-potential-streaming-deal.html

If the Twins get screwed out of being on Amazon because their contract expired, I'm going to be heart broken. This would be a fantastic scenario. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 12/17/2023 at 9:35 PM, CoastiePilot08 said:

Way to kill all the momentum and good feelings from last season.

sigh. 

Its kind of like tax time,  it doesn't matter the time frame of when income or expense or withholding occurs,  at the end of the day,  the final picture will always be the same at 12/31.  So the question is who cares about momentum in December on signing? And why would you.  This is the time frame of massive overpays.  We have a really well balanced team already with relatively few holes.  I hope for some upgrades, but am happy with where we are currently.  The major way this team will improve is through a trade, which is obviously subtracting someone from the team.   

[Trov]

There are too many top FA left to sign to shake out the lower level deals.  With Bellenger still out there, no team will trade for Kepler, should that be our rout until he is off board. There is still a lot of FA to shake out before teams really see what they need going forward.  Being we are unlikely to go out and sign a top FA, the expected biggest moves will be via trade.  

Really, you could make this comment about most teams, being most are just talking to players.  Yes, some teams made some moves so far, but there are much more pending FA and trades to come than have been done. 

[DJL44]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

which player you realistically wanted is off the board?

Gray or Maeda

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Gray or Maeda

Well not getting Gray gets us a 1st round draft pick.  Which may allow us to trade the comp B pick for something or a prospect like Soto for something of quality.  If we can pull off another Gray trade, I think everyone would be pretty happy.  

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Gray or Maeda

Gray, sure, I see the draw. But I want younger and cheaper pitchers and use any free agent money on bats. 

Maeda, no. Paddock is already replacing him. We need a better pitcher than he.

I'm not a fan of the 'putting the band back together' approach. Maybe spend money and go that route if the team wins is all, otherwise, keep bringing in new blood.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

My expectations are 1 decent FA addition and 1 pitcher traded for (thinking a #3 type pitcher with upside).   I am still have a gut feel we go after and get Hoskins.  Minimal smoke there other than the Cubs and we have some interest.  If Cubs want him,  they will get him,  but will just have to wait and see.    

[tony&rodney]

A continuing question remains ...... Where will the roster budget rest ? There is quite a divide on TD on that front, apparent from those who propose free agent signings to contracts that may or may not fit, all depending on the final dollar settings. When the offseason began, there were optimistic projections of near $170 million and then the online TD budget tool figure of $150 million. A vague rather flip comment from Falvey suggested that the budget was out of alignment, or some such words to that effect, and that a natural correction to the roster expenditures would occur reflecting several years of overspending. Thereafter, a general range of $125-140 million was put into numerous articles and became the new obscure reality. The bottom figure seemed to indicate the number where a much reduced media deal might push the new roster numbers. Meanwhile, the Twins have passed on just about everything, which has been in any event the usual norm, meaning really nothing or no reason to worry yet. So we wait .... and hope that Falvey has lost Joey Gallo's contacts.

[Fatbat]

I’m inclined to believe that Falvey has had several offers and he has ongoing discussions. I like the fact that deals haven’t been done because that simply means he is working better deals instead of just making a deal. Keep saying “not good enough yet” Mr. Falvey. 

[DocBauer]

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'm hearing rumblings that there might be some movement on TV rights. I suspect that clarity about revenue will make it easier to make personnel decisions. 

So I'm a big fan of Gleeman and the Geek and am a Patreon subscriber for their show, in addition to listening to their free broadcast. (Just as personal endorsement, if you're a deep, dyed in red/white/blue Twins fan, why aren't you a subscriber? Great perspective, and the humor and guests alone are worth $8 a month). They just did a WONDERFUL show with Cory Provus Monday in which he confirmed that yes, he has a job, LOL, and yes, the Twins will be on TV for 2024, and without blackouts.

The details are still being worked out, but essentially, if I understood correctly, Bally will still be responsible for running the actual broadcasts, seemingly as part of the whole bankruptcy ordeal and probably due to any pending possible purchase by Amazon, as nicksaviking alluded to, though that part wasn't mentioned, if I recall correctly. There was nothing mentioned...and possibly unknown...by Provus as to the $ involved, but the consensus seemed to be it wouldn't be for the same $55M the Twins had been receiving. 

So right now, it's anyone's guess/speculation. Even on the Twins side, possibly, at this time. But it's not hard to do simple math and simply make an educated guess. Say it's $35M? Well, roughly half of the lost $ would be $20M. An accepted 52 ish % of $20M would be a loss of about $10M from the $155M the Twins had in 2023. IF that actually happens...and I'm NOT apologizing for ANY sort of reduction...a $140-$145M payroll for 2024 shouldn't destroy any optimism for the Twins next season. There's still room to work the roster, and add, and there is PROBABLY going to be some added wiggle room financially when you realize/accept, that at least one of Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, MAYBE Vazquez is moved via trade.

As far as inactivity goes, well, we all hate just waiting around in December wanting something to happen to break up the winter monotony of waiting for ST to arrive. But that's how this FO works. They are patient and deliberate.

This is a mostly young team, with some additional youth coming, that doesn't have major holes. It just needs to be tweaked here and there. We haven't been able to say that a lot of offseasons.

I honestly can't recall a single big move made by this FO in December previously. Maybe Castro at catcher? If I'm not mistaken...and feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken...Cruz, Gonzalez, Gray, Lopez, were all added in January. The Paddack/Pagan deal was right before opening day. (We might still end up with a win on that one). And last season, the surprisingly productive Solano was added after ST started. 

The quiet from the FO is just normal right now. It gives us time to offer up all kinds of speculation that seldom occurs, but let's us have some fun to fill the time.

Barring a surprise that I think is 30/70 against right now to leap forward, I'm betting on a $140-145M payroll. Again, room to work with. And with some contracts gone, and the general youth and low cost of the majority of the roster, there is a rather natural lowering of the payroll. To a DEGREE.

There is room to work. There are trade options and not overly expensive FA options to add. I disagree whole heartedly with ANY notion that ownership should be "hurt" by earning $10-15M less from Twins income in 2024. But I see a team that is right on the cusp of legitimate contention that really just needs a couple adds, a fraction of better health to a couple of guys, and just further development of all the young talent on hand.

[Doctor Wu]

As others have said, this seems to be the standard strategy for the Twins front office in recent years. And yet, other teams are out there signing players and making trades, so why not us? I understand the strategy of waiting until the bigger free agents have signed and the market "settles", or whatever it is that happens, but it also seems to me that the longer we wait we risk losing the better players to other teams. Luzardo is available (maybe?). Well, we won't be the only team trying to acquire him. Not much on the free agent market that either fits our apparently limited budget or really "moves the needle" overall, so it looks like a trade, or two or three, is our best hope to improve the team for this coming season, I only hope the front office actually does have a plan, and a plan B, and are ready to impress us with their patience and ingenuity. But man, get it done soon!

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I’m inclined to believe that Falvey has had several offers and he has ongoing discussions. I like the fact that deals haven’t been done because that simply means he is working better deals instead of just making a deal. Keep saying “not good enough yet” Mr. Falvey. 

There's risk in that strategy, though. He's not the only guy with pieces to move. Eventually other teams move on and you're left holding the bag you started with. He, and you, could be ok with that, but "not good enough yet" sometimes leads to a "we'll just move on then" and that's not always ideal either. The inaction to this point isn't in itself a bad thing, but it's not necessarily a good thing either.

[wabene]

Whaddya think? The over/under on the Twins first big move at 29.5 days from today.... 

[CoastiePilot08]

18 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Typical off season.  No different than prior off seasons.  They always somehow come out OK.

R-E-L-A-X and enjoy the holidays.

Yeah you’re right. Getting beaten soundly by Houston in the first round is super. 
 

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Whaddya think? The over/under on the Twins first big move at 29.5 days from today.... 

Under. But not by much.

[2wins87]

I was curious if there were still any other teams left that had been just as quiet as the Twins.

From the Fangraphs free agent tracker, 22 of 30 teams have signed at least one player to an MLB contract.  Of those that haven't, the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, and Mariners have all been involved in fairly significant trades.

The other 3 remaining teams besides the Twins: The Cubs, Marlins, and Blue Jays.

The Cubs have signed Jorge Alfaro to a minor league deal; the Marlins have acquired Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Brujan through minor trades.  You can decide whether any of those moves really count as doing anything.

The Blue Jays are probably still the Twins closest rival for the title of last to act, having acquired no one who played in the majors last year so far, as far as I can tell.

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

Whaddya think? The over/under on the Twins first big move at 29.5 days from today.... 

I think something happens in the first two weeks of January, so I'll say under by a bit, but I wouldn't be shocked if it's the over.