Will the Twins Regret Leaving DaShawn Keirsey Unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft?

[Cody Christie]

Teams make questionable protection decisions every year leading into the Rule 5 Draft. Will the Twins regret leaving a Triple-A outfielder off their 40-man roster?

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

The Twins selected DaShawn Keirsey in the fourth round of the 2018 MLB Draft, from the University of Utah. In three collegiate seasons, he hit .334/.391/.473 (.865) with 42 doubles, 11 triples, and eight home runs. He played center field in college and showed an ability to steal bases. This skill set was enough to catch the attention of Twins scouts, and they used a relatively high pick (and an above-slot bonus) on him. 

In his pro debut, Keirsey posted a .798 OPS in 26 games for the Elizabethton Twins. It was a solid start to his career, but his college experience helped him succeed in a league where he was older than the average age of the competition. In 2019, Keirsey was limited to 36 games due to injury and struggled to find consistency at the plate. Minnesota hoped he could bounce back in 2020, but the pandemic canceled the minor league season. 

His 2021 season was also limited to fewer than 50 games because of multiple injuries. Most of his time that season was spent at High-A, where the 24-year-old was old for the level. He hit .199/.297/.433 (.730) with 15 extra-base hits in 45 games. Keirsey wouldn’t appear on any top Twins prospect lists because he hadn’t been able to put together a healthy season and showcase his true potential. 

In 2022, Keirsey finally played over 100 games for the first time in his professional career. He hit .271/.329/.395 (.724) with 26 doubles, 3 triples, and 7 home runs. The Wind Surge coaching staff let him loose on the bases, as he stole 42 of them in 49 attempts. Keirsey was slightly older than the average age of the competition in the Texas League, but he showed that he could stay healthy and produce.

The Twins sent Keirsey back to Double-A to begin the 2023 campaign because the Triple-A outfield had other options. In 91 games, he hit .305/.363/.488 (.850) with 17 doubles, 5 triples, and 13 home runs. He was promoted to Triple A at the beginning of August and posted a .739 OPS in the season’s final 39 games. On the bases, he went 39-for-44 in stolen base attempts, including a perfect 8-for-8 at Triple A. Keirsey stayed healthy again and played in a career-high 130 games.

Minnesota has a clear need in center field for next season, so it was interesting that they didn’t add Keirsey to the 40-man roster. When he reached Triple A this season, it was the first time he was younger than the average age of the competition. He’s already 26 years old, and the Twins know him better than anyone. Perhaps the team doesn’t feel like he’s a viable option to play regularly in center field, and that’s why they were willing to leave him unprotected.

If that skepticism is real, it's not unwarranted. Keirsey's already well into what would typically be a big-league player's prime, so we can't expect much more development from him. That's not the same as saying that such development is impossible, but it's unlikely, by definition. In his decent-sized sample of Triple-A playing time, his underlying data also betrayed some weaknesses that might confine him to a bench role. A lefty swinger, he whiffed on over 29 percent of swings against right-handed pitchers. The average whiff rate for lefty hitters facing righties in MLB in 2023 was 24.8 percent. His average exit velocity was under 88 miles per hour, and 47.5 percent of his batted balls were grounders. That's not a recipe for productivity at the plate, even accounting for his good plate discipline.

A non-contending team can draft Keirsey without worrying about some of his flaws. He can play all three outfield spots, and he’s shown a strong ability to steal bases. His swing continued to improve in the upper minors, and another organization can stash him for a year as a fourth outfielder with some upside. Back in June, Seth called Keirsey the Twins' most underrated prospect, and it seems likely that a team might take a chance on his talent level in the Rule 5 Draft. Being a left-handed hitter helps widen his path to playing time elsewhere, but might have worked against him on the Twins' depth chart.

Will the Twins regret losing Keirsey if he’s taken in the Rule 5 Draft? Should the Twins have protected him since they have four open spots on the 40-man roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[FlyingFinn]

No. Prato is younger and thus more likely to be picked. But teams like to stash pitchers, not hitters with Rule 5 picks. I say neither gets picked. Regi Grace is more likely than either one to be selected. He is at about the same level as Tyler Wells when the Orioles selected him. But I'm predicting none of our players get selected.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I can see a scenario where he is picked yes. That said, hard to say if they will regret it or not without seeing the finished 40 man roster for this offseason.

If he does get a chance with another organization, wish him well :)

[nicksaviking]

I also think Anthony Prato is more likely to get picked. He plays just about every position and has nearly put up a .400 OBP the last two years combined. I could see the Twins losing both, but I don't know that Keirsey's CF position will be an overriding factor in the decision. Rule V picks are typically the last player on the choosing team's bench and I'd suspect that most teams wouldn't be willing to hand their back up CF job to such a player. A jack-of-all trades kind of player seems more likely for the spot.

[Doctor Gast]

As a LH hittng CFer with good #s, there's a good chance he could be taken. Right now we are pretty deep in CFers (Buxton, Castro, Gordon & Martin at some point) & they are thinking about adding from outside. Unfortunately, we don't need him which is a good problem. Uncertain how he'll respond to MLB his 1st year but hope he'll develop into a MLBer & does well. Even if he does well I doubt that the Twins will regret it.

[tony&rodney]

I would hope the Twins could sign Keirsey Jr., Prato, and Helman to minor league contracts similar to the one that Garlick has last year.

[4twinsJA]

Kiersay's analytics don't project well to the MLB level. I hope he is not selected in Rule V draft, so Twins have depth at CF position this year. Kiersay maybe project as 4th OF who plays good defense and steals some bases. But can see why Twins did not protect him, they have plenty of projected 4th OF already.

[old nurse]

The article pretty much laid out why a club wouldn’t take him.

[DJL44]

Will DaShawn Kiersey ever make his MLB debut or will he head overseas as a minor league free agent?

I don't see any upside taking him. Teams can get someone like Kiersey for the league minimum as a free agent so it doesn't save any money. In Rule 5 a team is looking to grab someone who can be a backup now but could be more than just a backup later. Kiersey has very little projectable future value.

[Greglw3]

I think it was a big mistake. Keirsey is busting with talent and has a really sweet swing.

Keirseys 2023 Stats

8 triples, 15 HR, 39 SB .294 BA .366 OBP .455 SLG

Start at 1:28 for DaShawn Kiersey hitting highlights

 

[tony&rodney]

I'm wondering how many people who do not think very highly of Keirsey Jr. (or anyone for that matter) have seen him play a couple dozen times. From my perspective he has talent but lacks time and experience, which given his age makes him less of a prospect. Nevertheless, the guy can still develop. Does anyone remember Maury Wills? He played nine (9) years in the minor leagues before his first MLB opportunity. I'm not comparing the two but ..... all I'm saying is that there is a chance for Keirsey Jr.  to play MLB.

[Vanimal46]

 

[Althebum82]

I just don't see him as being high-profile enough to even register on the radar for other franchises.  If he is for some reason, I agree with others who say I don't see the Twins regretting it.  I agree with the "protection" moves that they did make.  I also agree that Prato is more likely to be taken, but even his loss can be absorbed if he is viewed primarily as an infielder where the franchise has had good depth now for several seasons.

[Fat Calvin]

I think they will regret it.  They need a backup center fielder.  I think they should have protected him.  They added 4 players to the 40 man roster.  I think they could have and should have added a 5th in Keirsey.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm wondering how many people who do not think very highly of Keirsey Jr. (or anyone for that matter) have seen him play a couple dozen times. From my perspective he has talent but lacks time and experience, which given his age makes him less of a prospect. Nevertheless, the guy can still develop. Does anyone remember Maury Wills? He played nine (9) years in the minor leagues before his first MLB opportunity. I'm not comparing the two but ..... all I'm saying is that there is a chance for Keirsey Jr.  to play MLB.

As someone who has seen him play several dozen times I'm pulling for him but would not be gutted if he got picked.

I have seen him in Wichita a bunch of times and being in tune with the Twins I watch the prospects. I've been trying to remember to not knock the older guys just for being older at the level but it still seeps in. For the record, I was not impressed with Julien at AA either and that may cloud my desire to trade him over others.

I wasn't terribly impressed with Kiersey when I watched him either. Personal reflection makes me wonder if I am placing too much weight on age. He can probably be a solid major leaguer but I feel the ceiling is capped. There is probably some considerable research that says old AA players can have a good couple years but it's pretty rare they become studs.

I'm not going to be incredibly sad if he gets picked but I wouldn't mind having him as depth to draw from. Perfect guy to leave unprotected.

[tony&rodney]

34 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

As someone who has seen him play several dozen times I'm pulling for him but would not be gutted if he got picked.

More or less, this is my thought. I would choose him over Gordon though. We all know that Keirsey Jr. is late to the game and his age and weaknesses get amplified more than if he were 22, naturally.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Fat Calvin said:

I think they will regret it.  They need a backup center fielder.  I think they should have protected him.  They added 4 players to the 40 man roster.  I think they could have and should have added a 5th in Keirsey.

Nah, I’ll take a CF with MLB experience. Just like MAT. 

[Jocko87]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

More or less, this is my thought. I would choose him over Gordon though. We all know that Keirsey Jr. is late to the game and his age and weaknesses get amplified more than if he were 22, naturally.

Over Gordon ten of ten times.  The option is enough for me in this role but I think we could also see more from Kiersey in spurts.

[PatPfund]

Last year, it appears there were 13 pitchers taken, and two position players. Two. Not shocking when you consider how everyone has a short bench now; position players have to play. Most the experts believe this year's Rule will again be pitcher heavy.

Keirsey isn't a pitcher. He isn't particularly young any more. He isn't a 40 HR guy. He isn't listed on anyone's Top Rule 5 prospect list that I've seen (Prato is, but at the bottom of MLB.com's). Nobody is going to draft him, and give him a locked-up spot on their 2024 roster, so there won't be anything to regret. But if someone does, and he is good enough to make it, then good for him.

[rv78]

I wonder if he couldn't be someone's Jarrod Dyson or Terrance Gore like the Royals used ala... pinch runner/stolen base option off the bench. Maybe that's a luxury not worth having in todays swing for the fences approach instead of get on base and manufacture a run. Yeah, that's too complicated.

[Mike Sixel]

No. 

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

As a LH hittng CFer with good #s, there's a good chance he could be taken. Right now we are pretty deep in CFers (Buxton, Castro, Gordon & Martin at some point) & they are thinking about adding from outside. Unfortunately, we don't need him which is a good problem. Uncertain how he'll respond to MLB his 1st year but hope he'll develop into a MLBer & does well. Even if he does well I doubt that the Twins will regret it.

If he does well , the Twins fans will let the FO  know about it  ...

The past 2 healthy seasons he's had decent number's ,  average and stealing bases ...

Yes he's older,  but I think because of his early career  injuries  and loss of 2020 season and injuries again in 2021   , his numbers are finally  showing when healthy  that he could be capable of improving  more as he gets more game experience  , he's got talent  and I'm sure teams scouts have noticed  , will he get selected  in rule 5 draft , I think on Thursday we will find out ...

[Vanimal46]

39 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I wonder if he couldn't be someone's Jarrod Dyson or Terrance Gore like the Royals used ala... pinch runner/stolen base option off the bench. Maybe that's a luxury not worth having in todays swing for the fences approach instead of get on base and manufacture a run. Yeah, that's too complicated.

Are you legitimately worried about losing that role on the 40 man roster? Do you think some team will dedicate a 26 man MLB roster spot on that specific role all season? 

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

will he get selected  in rule 5 draft , I think on Thursday we will find out ...

Bold prediction there, or maybe a hawt taek, since I think the draft is being held on Wednesday.

[Blyleven2011]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Bold prediction there, or maybe a hawt taek, since I think the draft is being held on Wednesday.

It could be , I always thought it was the last day of meetings   ... 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

I wonder if he couldn't be someone's Jarrod Dyson or Terrance Gore like the Royals used ala... pinch runner/stolen base option off the bench. Maybe that's a luxury not worth having in todays swing for the fences approach instead of get on base and manufacture a run. Yeah, that's too complicated.

With today's 13-man pitching staffs, having a running specialist really isn't feasible long-term. Further, Keirsey is fast, but not that fast.

[arby58]

I'm trying to find the team that is (a) looking for a back-up centerfielder, and (b) willing to take a flier on a guy who has never had breakout numbers in the minors, and (c) going to keep him on the MLB roster for an entire season.

Haven't found one. I guess we'll find out - I highly doubt it.

[rv78]

9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Are you legitimately worried about losing that role on the 40 man roster? Do you think some team will dedicate a 26 man MLB roster spot on that specific role all season? 

The current Twins way is more likely to come in the form of a guy that will be like Joey Gallo. I needn't say no more. 

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, rv78 said:

The current Twins way is more likely to come in the form of a guy that will be like Joey Gallo. I needn't say no more. 

Or Willi Castro.

[TwinsDr2021]

He will be 27 May 13th and has played 39 games in AAA. You never regret not protecting a player like this. If you have regrets you should have brought him up at the end of last year and figured out what you have. But I am sure the Twins know what they have, an old minor league player., who very likely will play in the majors for minute. (I wish him well)