This Yankees Starter Could Be the Next Success Story in the Twins' Rotation

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins traded for Pablo López when he had two years of club control remaining. Then they helped propel him to the next level. If they can make some tweaks to his breaking pitches, could Nestor Cortes fit that same mold?

Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports (Nestor Cortes)

Facing spending limitations, the Twins should turn their attention to trading for a promising starter that they can propel to the next level, just as they did with Pablo López. That means seeking out a somewhat expendable arm in a good starting rotation, who can be elevated with a tweak or two. This pitcher should be under team control for at least two seasons, and this hypothetical target should be young enough that an extension becomes part of the conversation if all goes well. 

That’s a tall order, and there’s no assurance that there is a López to be had this time around. But one pitcher might carry that kind of upside, even if it comes with a significant question mark. It’s Nestor Cortes of the New York Yankees. While he may not be able to match López’s elite production from this season, he could be at that perfect balance point of being realistically attainable while having a recent track record of success. 

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Heading into the 2024 season, Cortes currently finds himself grasping to the last spot in New York’s rotation, a group that is headlined by Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole and also includes Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt and Michael King. The Yankees are also known to be gearing up in pursuit of some of the top arms in the free agent market, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga. If they land one of those pitchers, or acquire one at their level via trade, it makes Cortes all the more expendable. 

That’s where it would behoove the Twins to keep in contact with Brian Cashman and the decision-makers in the Bronx. The 29-year-old southpaw struggled for much of the 2023 season as he was hampered by a nagging injury. It kept him out of action for all but a dozen starts, and the results in those games were far from desirable. Cortes finished with a 4.97 ERA in 63 innings pitched, and allowed 11 home runs in that brief time. 

Yes, that shoulder injury is certainly concerning, but it shouldn’t be a disqualifier in terms of pursuing him in a trade. If anything, it could drop his price tag to a point where it becomes realistic for the Twins to make a move. Look no further than López’s situation while with the Marlins. He always had intriguing raw stuff, but he failed to pitch more than 111 innings until his final season with the club, and that was due in large part to an injured rotator cuff in both the 2019 and 2021 seasons. 

That’s the same injury that kept Cortes off the field and ineffective last year. While his velocity remained surprisingly consistent through his injury (91.8 MPH average fastball velocity in 2022, 91.6 MPH in 2023), his main secondary offerings were nailed pretty hard. Both his cutter and sweeper allowed a slugging percentage over .500, with eight of his 11 homers allowed coming on these offerings. But these pitches were real tools for him in the first two years of his Yankee tenure. They each had expected slugging percentages that were more than 100 points lower than his most recent figures, and they led to a to plenty of strikeouts and fewer hits. 

So if the Twins can get their hands on Cortes and rework these once-great secondary pitches as they did with López and his sweeper (which is admittedly a major 'if'), the reward could be worth the substantial risk.

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Cortes is just a year removed from a really promising stretch with the Yankees where he had a 2.61 ERA (0.98 WHIP) in 251 ⅓ innings pitched across 42 starts. That span started with a handful of opportunities out of the bullpen, but he soon graduated into the starting five after holding opponents to a brilliant .197/.278/.282 clip in relief. Once he secured his spot in the rotation, Cortes carried a strong 9.5 K/9 while holding opponents to a comfortable 6.4% walk rate. 

 

 

Care to guess what those same peripherals looked like for López in the two seasons leading up to his trade? They were eerily similar, with the young right-hander averaging 9.2 K/9 with a 6.9% walk rate. Does that mean Cortes would be destined to hit that same breakout if the Twins were to acquire him? Of course not, but you can see the appeal at the very least. 

The other side of this equation would be the potential cost to acquire such a player. The Yankees have had interest in Max Kepler in the past, and his one-year $10 million salary might look enticing to them after he had the best half-season of his career. Cortes would surely cost additional pieces to pair with Kepler, but it’s hard to imagine any of the top-tier youngsters being included in this deal.

Could some combination of back-end prospects from the Twins Daily Top Prospect rankings be enough? Would the Yankees be interested in near-MLB ready minor leaguers such as Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 17) or Yunior Severino (No. 12)? Or maybe they’d prefer a higher-ceiling player that is still a few years away from making an impact in the major leagues such as Marco Raya (No. 4), Charlee Soto (No. 6), or Brandon Winokur (No. 8).

The benefit of having a diverse pool of prospect types to choose from could come into play here, and Cortes might just be worth the investment if the price is right.

What do you think? Would you like to see Nestor Cortes in the Twins’ rotation for the next two seasons? What do you think the return package would have to look like? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. 
  

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This sounds good to me :)

[Trov]

The concern I have with Cortez is that he really has had about 240 good innings in his career.  He is coming off injury.  Is he the guy that was near cy young guy, or was that an outlier season?  Of course that is why he could be had and he could bounce back. 

[Linus]

He’s fun to watch. Shoulder injuries scare me. That’s about all I know 

[Karbo]

It would all depend on the price. Don't think I would give up a high prospect in addition to Kepler, but a mid ranger might be worth it. Big gamble on the shoulder issue though. The FO can get his medical records though and I'm sure they will. Interesting idea, real possibility's.

[tony&rodney]

Well, you sure did a strong job of presenting Cortes as a possibility worth a conversation with the Yankees.

I would think that the Yanks will be listening for a sweet deal on the one hand but holding him on the other hand. New York has Cole and are hopeful that Rodon rebounds effectively and that is about it. Both King and Schmidt are best as #5/6 starting pitchers, with King mostly having been used in relief. If Cortes has fully healed, the Yankees need him. If the Yanks are putting his name out there, it seems odd considering how desperate they are for pitching. 

The writeup is fine as is the idea of finding a hidden gem. Maybe we can trade Dobnak for Cortes. 

A common practice, seemingly, is to link the success of pitchers to a pitching coach or team philosophy. I'm more inclined to credit the athlete for 96% of their success. Pablo Lopez has always been a huge talent. His consistency, pitch selection, maturation, and weight were challenges. Lopez began to put that all together several years ago and the Twins benefited from having a guy that Miami coveted (Luis Arraez). Bingo, Miami is happy and the Twins get a guy they needed. Talent has to develop and injuries to pitchers are a constant. If Cortes has those skills the Yankees will not trade him for less than a robbery. 

I appreciate the work and effort that is put into writing these posts. Some good conversations develop in the string and all opinions and thoughts are worth reading and thinking about. Domingo German pitched a perfect game last summer and was released in early November. So many names out there.

[DJL44]

I do like using Charlee Soto as trade bait just like they did with Chase Petty.

[specialiststeve]

Hard pass. Arm issues are one thing... shoulder issues seem to be another and too may pitchers don't recover with quality results. Too many other possible options to settle for a worn out lefty with shoulder issues. 

[Swimbo]

If the Twins can get him at a very low price, sure, but I wouldn't want them to even pay the market value for a left-handed starter. Cortes has had some great innings, but part of his game is the odd and changing timing of his delivery. He doesn't have great actual pitches but just how he throws them. 

[old nurse]

King has also been their closer. Even if the do sign pitchers it would probably be ab overpay rather than a bargain to get Cortez

[TopGunn#22]

A Kepler (8.8) straight up for Cortes (8.4) would be more than enough.  In fact, the Twins could actually ask the Yankees to throw in a player to even it out.  Nowadays, there really isn't a pitcher out there who hasn't had SOMETHING go wrong.  You just don't find those Jim Palmer, Don Sutton, and Bert Blyleven types out there.  

Since Kepler is sure to be pushed out in the future (within one season at the most) a deal for Cortes makes sense.  But I agree with tony&rodney, the Yankees may like Max Kepler, but their rotation is far from settled, even if they sign a couple SP  I don't think the Yanks would do it.

And to repeat, almost every pitcher has something in their history that could be a red flag.  Look at some of the "affordable" free agent guys we are considering:  Frankie Montas. Lucas Giolito, Luis Severino.  Those are guys that could be signed for $12-$14 million annually and would be worth the gamble.  Ending up with a potential rotation of Lopez, Montas, Cortez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack (gotta list 6 because you need that many at the minimum) would be pretty decent for 2024.  Especially if we have Varland in the bullpen.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

The more I think on reading this, this feels like it has quite a few parallels to where Sonny Gray was prior to the Twins acquiring him. Just saying. I'd be open to the idea if his shoulder looks healthy.

[darin617]

The Yankees aren't just going to give away a left handed starter with 3 years left of team control. 

He could be a nice target if his medical records look good.  You just never know what affect pitching in NY has for some pitchers. He could really blossom without the added pressure.

Another former NYY now a free agent I might be interested in would be Frankie Montas if he is healthy.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, you sure did a strong job of presenting Cortes as a possibility worth a conversation with the Yankees.

I would think that the Yanks will be listening for a sweet deal on the one hand but holding him on the other hand. New York has Cole and are hopeful that Rodon rebounds effectively and that is about it. Both King and Schmidt are best as #5/6 starting pitchers, with King mostly having been used in relief. If Cortes has fully healed, the Yankees need him. If the Yanks are putting his name out there, it seems odd considering how desperate they are for pitching. 

The writeup is fine as is the idea of finding a hidden gem. Maybe we can trade Dobnak for Cortes. 

A common practice, seemingly, is to link the success of pitchers to a pitching coach or team philosophy. I'm more inclined to credit the athlete for 96% of their success. Pablo Lopez has always been a huge talent. His consistency, pitch selection, maturation, and weight were challenges. Lopez began to put that all together several years ago and the Twins benefited from having a guy that Miami coveted (Luis Arraez). Bingo, Miami is happy and the Twins get a guy they needed. Talent has to develop and injuries to pitchers are a constant. If Cortes has those skills the Yankees will not trade him for less than a robbery. 

I appreciate the work and effort that is put into writing these posts. Some good conversations develop in the string and all opinions and thoughts are worth reading and thinking about. Domingo German pitched a perfect game last summer and was released in early November. So many names out there.

Thanks Tony and Rodney for an extremely  nice post. I don't know if you are "Minnesota nice" or whether you have "Southern Hospitality", but your posts are almost always well thought out and are always polite. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

17 minutes ago, darin617 said:

The Yankees aren't just going to give away a left handed starter with 3 years left of team control. 

He could be a nice target if his medical records look good.  You just never know what affect pitching in NY has for some pitchers. He could really blossom without the added pressure.

Another former NYY now a free agent I might be interested in would be Frankie Montas if he is healthy.  

2 years, he is team controlled via arbitration through 2025. 

[AdoreAdorno]

Yankees need Cortez more than they need a position player. SP is a need for the Yankees this offseason and, unlike the Guardians and Rays, they don't care about selling pitchers before their arbitration salary spikes in the last years. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, AdoreAdorno said:

Yankees need Cortez more than they need a position player. SP is a need for the Yankees this offseason and, unlike the Guardians and Rays, they don't care about selling pitchers before their arbitration salary spikes in the last years. 

Just like they did with Jordan Montgomery?

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Swimbo said:

If the Twins can get him at a very low price, sure, but I wouldn't want them to even pay the market value for a left-handed starter. Cortes has had some great innings, but part of his game is the odd and changing timing of his delivery. He doesn't have great actual pitches but just how he throws them. 

When I saw this article my gut said no. Then I read Swimbo's comment, then I knew it was his delivery. 

Welcome Swimbo to TD.

[roger]

No idea whether the Twins should do any deal for this guy. 

My concern is trading Kepler.  Who do they play in right field?  Larnach?  Wallner?  Will either be a solid player next year?  Sure seems to me there are lots of questions regarding having to play both of those guys. 

You refer to Kepler being pushed out of a position in the future.  If he goes, you may have three outfield spots to fill if Buxton is again unable to play center.  Thats a lot of spots for a couple young studs to fill.  And none of those guys, ERod, the kid taken #1 last year, or Rosario are that close or definite players. 

With everyone on the trade Kepler bandwagon, kind of reminds me of a couple years ago when everyone wanted the team to get rid of Eddie.  The Twins did and haven't had a solid every day left fielder since.  Meanwhile, Eddie has a ring and wasn't he the MVP of one of those series?

[dex8425]

I don't really see Cortes being any better or durable than Maeda in 2024. Maeda only requires money, and not a ton compared to other FA starters. Cortes doesn't have good stuff. 

[joefish]

I don't see Cortez being more valuable than Max. 

[nicksaviking]

I would be interested at a reasonable price, but I suspect the trade speculation around Cortes is coming more from pundits than the Yankee front office. Clark Schmidt's move to the rotation didn't go as well as planned, and Michael King is already 28 and has pretty much been a swing man his entire career. That team has a history of sticking with their inconsistent and injury prone starters like Severino, German and Taillon through the end of their contracts. 

Even if the Yankees did land a top free agent, Cortes still probably has more potential than Schmidt, King and even Rodon; I just don't see them dealing from the middle of their rotation over the back of their rotation. Or likely from their rotation at all, I think King and/or Schmidt heading back to the pen is more likely. They did deal Jordan Montgomery in 2022, but at that time they actually DID have a mid-season rotation crunch. Their rotation wasn't good last year though and I don't see a similar crunch now.

[PatPfund]

I'm mystified as to why a guy who couldn't make our rotation last year would be worth more than our everyday RF coming off his best half-season in years (and who would be pulling balls into that short porch all year in the Bronx). Almost as mystified as how "backend" prospect toss-in possibilities include our 4th, 6th, 8th, 12th, or 18th prospects. I'd rather just re-sign Maeda who will likely be better than Nestor next year. Or try SWR who will probably be better than Nestor next year.

(Cortes would be walking back down the Mahle/Matty Shoe/Dylan Bundy/Chris Archer trail. Please, no.)

[arby58]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

It would all depend on the price. Don't think I would give up a high prospect in addition to Kepler, but a mid ranger might be worth it. Big gamble on the shoulder issue though. The FO can get his medical records though and I'm sure they will. Interesting idea, real possibility's.

The Yankees might have some interest in Kepler, given the short right field porch at Yankee stadium. A lot of long fly outs at Target Field would be in the bleachers there.

[Finlander]

Nice read and interesting proposal. My gut reaction is a "no" for a few reasons, some admittedly not very scientific:

1. Shoulder injuries are scary.

2. We've had a history of great (or at least scary) lefty starters (Kaat, Viola, Johan, Liriano), but that tradition has been broken by the likes of Diamond, Smeltzer, etc. If we look for another lefty, I'd rather not see a broken funky trick pitcher that we have to fix. At least not in exchange for our starting lefty hitting and elite defender rightfielder.

3. Expanding on above, I hate to give that much help to the Yankees lineup. I'm not sure I'd even do Kepler for Cortes straight up. Maybe Larnach instead.

4. I'd rather see Polanco moved in a package for a Seattle or Marlins pitcher and hold on to Kepler until we think the young outfielders are ready to take over. We could net something for him at the deadline. My reasoning for this is the IF depth seems more MLB ready than the OF depth so far. Of course, that could change by February with signings, trades, etc.

Yes, Nestor had one nice stretch. But if we take on a fix-it, I'd like to see more dominant pitching upside.

 

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Thanks Tony and Rodney for an extremely  nice post. I don't know if you are "Minnesota nice" or whether you have "Southern Hospitality", but your posts are almost always well thought out and are always polite. 

Thank you. That was nice of you. Happy Thanksgiving.

After coaching and playing for three plus decades, I believe that the players drive the game of baseball. In basketball, a coach has far more effect on the play.

I really do appreciate the posts. They take thought, research, and time. About twenty years ago i wrote sometimes for a friend's blog (Phillies). The comments on Twins Daily are mostly decent. We all have opinions and sometimes I think people see differences as an attack on their knowledge.

In this post (Cortes) as in others, my initial thoughts are to look at both sides of a deal. Still, there are countless times my thinking is jumbled and way off base. It is easier to make judgments when one can see a player on numerous occasions live. Watching fielding drills, one can discern weaknesses and strengths. Lastly, sometimes we are too hard on athletes. Yes, they get paid well ,,,, now. I can remember when Dave Boswell painted garages to make a little money. There are a pile of guys waiting to take away your job in baseball and the preparation to remain relevant is tough. Skill, luck, and excellence are elusive. Young guys get bowled over on occasions and are unprepared for reactions from the public. MLB does a pretty good job of educating today. 

[KBJ1]

He throws 91mph & has shoulder issues?

Doesn't sound like an Ace in waiting at all.

No thanks. 

We need 3 things : a real #2 SP, a Right handed power hitting LF (who hits way better than 200) & another solid Bullpen arm.

Lewis, Ŵallner, Julien, Lee & Martin (CF) with Miranda backing up 1B and we are set. Will there be growing pains? Maybe, but it's our best chance. Go with the youth movement and spend on thise 3 positions.

Trade Kepler & Polanco & maybe Vasquez if we get a catcher in return.

[Blyleven2011]

If , maybe,  perhaps  ...

I do like the thought of getting a left handed pitcher in the rotation ...

I just don't see it happening with the Yankees and Cortez , but the FO could surprise us ... 

Nothing has leaked out or mentioned from the media or FO of any rumors on who the Twins are pursuing yet   ...

[DocBauer]

On the surface, this idea makes a lot of sense. But when you look deeper, I just don't like it.

1] I was on the bandwagon to move on from Kepler last season, despite being an immense fan, after a good 2 1/2 seasons of mediocre to poor performance. But SOMETHING changed in Max's approach last season, and it wasn't due to the shift. He suddenly began to "see" the ball better and hit the damn thing hard. The results were line drives all over the field...sometimes over the wall...instead of weak contact and the occasional HR. Mentally...and perhaps a physical adjustment took place...it's as if he FINALLY realized he had enough power to do damage without simply trying to hit HR. And while I really like Wallner, and believe in his potential/future, I'm not ready to have him "replace" Kepler just yet offensively or defensively. The lineup has potential, but was a problem at times in 2023, and I'm not ready to risk losing offense at this point.

2] While it's very possible Cortez's shoulder injury is mild, and similar to Lopez's previous issues, I'm a bit more concerned about shoulders than I am elbows. (Which is kind of a crazy thing to say). Lopez found greater velocity with the Twins, and a new breaking ball, but he ALWAYS threw harder than Cortez. He also had more time as a SP, more IP, and was/is a couple years younger. 

Straight up for Larnach maybe? I'd be interested. NOT as a Gray replacement, but rather, a "prospect" with talent and potential that might fit in the Yankees lineup as a LH power option and the Twins get a #4 rotation option with some upside. That's about it for me.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, Trov said:

The concern I have with Cortez is that he really has had about 240 good innings in his career.  He is coming off injury.  Is he the guy that was near cy young guy, or was that an outlier season?  Of course that is why he could be had and he could bounce back. 

Why not sign a known character guy with similar floor and ceiling - Kenta Maeda. This allows for trades for prospects or lumping a group together to get someone of value.