The Twins Payroll Meltdown: Six Crummy Ways It Affects Their Future

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, saviking said:

So he will hold us hostage .. 

I know, It sucks having a really good player on our team.

[weitz41]

This was extremely disappointing news...I think I heard the price is right's Ween Went Wah Weah...After I read that...There's a team here with a shot at a deep playoff run with a few quality reinforcement's...Winning the division should not be the ONLY goal...

[ashbury]

9 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This isn't a video game. He has a full no trade clause. 

OOTP is a video game, and even they won't let me try to trade Correa. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

I’m hearing an awful lot about lower revenues, operating losses, etc.

The numbers on the income statement mean nothing for an MLB baseball team in terms of available resources.  There is so much non-cash crap running through there (depreciation, amortization, deferred, and unrealized items).

The items I want to see on their financials that will tell me what they can really afford:  Balance sheet, Cash Flow Statement and Statement of Retained Earnings.

People make it sound like they have to decrease payroll or risk some sort of insolvency.  That’s absolutely absurd.  They could run a payroll much larger they are and still be making money hand over fist.  They use numbers accounted for on a different basis to fit the “affordability” narrative.  I see the defenders switch from cash basis, to accrual basis, to whatever meaningless pile of numbers they can to paint a picture.  It’s disingenuous financial analysis.

In reality, the average MLB team value went up 12% in 2022.  They bought the team for $44 million.  They’ve earned nearly $1.5 billion in unrealized gains sitting in retained earnings.  That number doesn’t get factored into what they can afford, and the argument is “noncash.”  In the same breath, people will say, “they’re not cheap they had an operating loss last year.”  That includes all sorts of noncash stuff.  You need to the full picture, which nobody has.  What’s the EBIDTA?  Bet it’s nowhere near a loss.  What’s the owners draw from the company every year?  Bet it’s pretty healthy.

People like to talk like they’re so sure of the financial situation of this team, but have no idea what these numbers mean and how businesses actually accumulate value.  Freaking Amazon operates at a loss every year while Jeff Bezos has created a net worth of $150 Billion.  Would you buy it if they told you they had to cut salaries next year because they might lost a little bit of revenue that’s relatively insignificant to the companies actual value?

It’s insulting for them to come out and say “we can’t afford this or that, but everyone come spend absurd percentages if you disposable income on $12 cans of beer and tickets to watch us lose every GD year.”  All while they increased the cost of buying anything in Hennepin County by .15% to pay for their stadium, which increased their personal net worth by hundreds of millions.

Just a little perspective from my career experience.  I don’t blame them for making money and being frugal, good for them.  That’s how you make money in business.  But, all of the “they’re not cheap - look at the operating loss” I’ve been hearing lately is based on a false premise.

But they aren't publicly traded company, which means a comparison to Amazon business models has no merit.  If you want to see the good numbers, feel free to buy in.  It's a big check.

Don't tell others not to make disingenuous financial analysis so you can make your own disingenuous financial analysis.  You don't know how many retained earnings they've dipped into already for example.  Nobody has said we can't afford this and that.  You are correct that nobody knows any really good numbers, even in this case there numbers didn't come from Falvey but a "source". 

You are being just as hyperbolic as anyone here.

[jmlease1]

It's really disappointing to see the early "we're cutting payroll" move from the franchise, because they have the resources and ability to hold the line, even with the TV contract in limbo, and now is exactly the time where they should be holding the line on payroll and trying to give themselves the opportunity to make waves in the playoffs. It's going to bring back all of the old "cheap Pohlads" conversation that's been so tiresome (especially over the last couple of seasons when it hasn't been true, especially when you look at the Twins in comparison to say Cleveland, whose fans would kill to have our level of payroll).

Bad look, bad announcement, and very disappointing.

We'll see where the final number lands; if it drops all the way down to the $125M range, then there's going to be a lot of scorn heaps upon the front office and the ownership...and they'll deserve every last bit of it. Twins fans packed their playoffs games and made this a loud and difficult place to play, and to revert down to $125M would be a pretty big insult and almost certainly be a signal that ownership wanted to pocket some additional money this season.

If they land closer to $140M...it'll still be a little disappointing, but far less egregious. At that level they can address all the team needs and position themselves to be a contender and not fire-sale guys like Farmer, Polanco, and Kepler. I think that's one of the spots to watch: if any of those three get dealt and the return isn't for MLB players or prospects above A-ball...I think we'll have our answer.

I actually think Bonnes is wrong about waving good-bye to prospects; I think a big slash to payroll makes it more likely we roll the dice on our high minor league depth. Which based on how our rookies did last year in comparison to our free agent signings, might not be the worst result for Twins fans, even if it is about money. Our most prominent FA signings last season were Vazquez, Gallo, and Solano. While Vazquez may have been good for the pitching staff and defense...he had one of his worst years as a pro. No one here needs to re-litigate Gallo. Solano was easily the best of the 3 and he was also the cheapest and most replaceable. Wallner, Julien, and Lewis on the other hand...

All that said: not happy about this at all. hate to see anything that brings back the "typical Twins" cries and "Cheap Pohlads" days.

[Jocko87]

The proper way to look at this is that after two years of ownership opening their pockets very wide, late in the offseason they are resetting a bit.  It seems everyone has forgotten what ownership had to agree to in the Correa saga.  Old Twins would have said, aww shucks we spent that money on Gallo.  The timing is good with all the kids on the way.

Nothing Falvey actually said is a surprise and frankly its not a negative.  They are running a good business.  Don't equate spending with success. 

Half the fanbase would complain the signing was blocking a prospect anyway.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The payroll is $104M without Polanco and $98M without Polanco and Farmer. 

Total: $119.67M from the blueprint. Take away Polanco = $109.17M. Take away Farmer and we are under $103M.

It isn't a big deal and I agree that there is potentially still money to add someone if the payroll goes to $140M. 

The money may be closer to $125M. We just don't know. TheTwins have not been active in adding FA SP for money.

Wacha? A return of Maeda? Something tells me that trades will happen.

[RpR]

32 minutes ago, saviking said:

So he will hold us hostage .. 

Nobody knows the trouble I've seen
Nobody knows my sorrow
Nobody knows the trouble I've seen
Glory, Hallelujah

[Jeff K]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Regarding #1; they like to trade for starting pitching instead of buying it in free agency. I'm happy that Sonny will probably get a 4 year deal elsewhere (he earned it) but I don't know that I can personally bank on him replicating his 2023 again.

Regarding #2, it'll be good to have insurance again for Buxton. IF he can play some, great. That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see them start to move him to a corner at some point, even given health. Bringing in a Kiermaier to platoon with Martin (or even Keirsey, and Castro) is fine for depth. But it still all really depends on if Buxton's knee is healthy for 2024. If it is, then having a lower payroll truly won't matter. That is a big if it seems.

Regarding #3, Brooks Lee. And if Kepler can bring back a good reliever for example, this isn't really truly a problem for production in 2024.

Regarding #4 Farmer is a good utility player. So is Willi Castro and presumably Austin Martin. If you can get a B prospect for Farmer's last year on his current contract/team control, that is a big win.

Regarding #5, my favorite current Twins prospects are Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins. Those two aren't going anywhere.

Regarding #6, this is the first one I truly agree with, at least for bottom line. Winning will solve this though. 

 

I can't imagine Gray getting a 4 year deal.  While you focused on Farmer, I think the more likely victim is Jorge Polanco.  The Twins have a surplus of infielders at the major league and in the high minors.  If Polanco is moved, that saves $10 Million and could bring a decent reliever (offset some of the $10 Million).  I agree that picking up an outfield bat is unlikely which tells me, the Twins will keep Kepler since this is NOT an area of strength.  

If the Twins are closer to $140 Million in payroll and make a couple of moves, they still could sign Gray.  I think the bigger problem is going to be having to pay our young stars what they are worth in the coming years.

[Nashvilletwin]

The doom and gloom and owner bashing today is pathetic.  We have very solid owners compared to most MLB franchises.  Yes, they are less ego driven than others, but they are very solid in terms of how they run this organization.  Overall, and relative to the rest of the league, the Twins are a well managed.

Re the team, everyone should just take a deep breath.  ‘24 is a transition year (albeit one in which will should still win the division and be competitive for the AL crown) to a fantastic young, cheap core coming in ‘25 and ‘26.  Let’s just keep our young talented depth and develop them so they reach their full potential.  Let them play.  We should 100% not move Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Martin, Wallner, the young catcher, etc.  Our outfield in ‘25, including platoon/DH types, very well could be Jenkins, Wallner, Rodriguez Martin, and Rosario - with all of them on league minimum. With Lewis, Lee, Kiriloff, and Julien, the infield is in a similar strong position. Correa and Buxton (hopefully) provide senior leadership. Arms are on the way as well.

Move Polanco (and Farmer if comfortable with Lee and Castro) and dumpster dive on a starter or two (Giolito, Bauer, etc.), Keep Kepler until at least the deadline.  Buxton, Martin, Castro and Gordon play center.  Win 90 games, have some playoff fun, and get ready for a huge open window for the second half of the 2020s!

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not buying it.  Everyone is acting like the TV contract is gone and it will not be replaced.  That is a load of hooey.  It make take some time to replace, but there will be a new contract in place somewhere with probably more money than they made last year.  Considering how close they are to being a WS team, it makes zero sense not to be financially competitive knowing that the money will be coming in at some point.

Do you have information we are not aware of?  Has something with substantive information been published that illustrates how that revenue will be replaced or are you just making an assumption with nothing to support it?   

[nicksaviking]

I kind of think this is much ado about nothing. Hayes didn't say anything concrete about the reasoning for the lower payroll, but since everyone has been talking about the TV deal, that's an obvious conclusion to draw, but even if they had MORE revenue, a step back in payroll seems like it was the logical thing anyway. Not to save money, but just how the roster is shaping up.

They NEVER sign top end pitching, and it's always because of the years it takes to get a deal done more so than the money. So signing a free agent to be the #2 was likely never going to happen unless a reunion with Gray was in the cards. Another trade is way more likely, and whomever they get is likely to be younger and more controllable, therefore cheaper than Gray's 12M salary last year.

Also, it's clearly time to move on from Polanco. Moving him would have next to nothing to do with salary anyway, there's just other players who've taken his job. Kepler is more likely to stay, but it might be time to move on from him as well, especially if there's a team that believes in his last three months of 2023 and forgets about the prior 3.5 years.

But most importantly, the young players have shown there's no need to sign the Joey Gallo/Christian Vazquez type free agents this year. There's no need to trade for a Kyle Farmer who'll eat up some of that budget. They don't need to bring in 3 or 4 or a half dozen new faces this year, and instead if they want one Rhys Hoskins or Teoscar Hernandez or Mitch Garver, there would still be room to do so.

Bottom line, with the lack of free agent bats available, this team's reluctance to give the extended years to top free agent pitchers, and the numerous young players who are ready for MLB action, I think payroll was going to be down regardless of any TV deal.  Though the TV deal may provide a bit of shade for the optics as it turns out.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

This is not surprising news, but still disappointing to hear. The successful playoff run should easily cover the losses from the previous TV contract and the new one. I get it though... The Pohlads have always ran the Twins as a year over year business, so the playoff money means nothing to them when planning for 2024. 

As far as your 6 points John, I mentally said good bye to Sonny Gray the second the season ended. It felt like a 1% chance he was coming back before the payroll reduction was announced. I still think they need to keep one of Polanco and Farmer. Farmer has more versatility in the IF at this point in their careers... I think we may need to prepare to say goodbye to Polanco, not Farmer. 

Your final paragraph in point #6 can't be emphasized enough. 

 

I agree - availability & flexibility makes Farmer the right pick between him and Polanco on our roster. As a guy with some Pop - switch hitter - Polanco makes better trade material. Win-win!

With Polanco gone we’re around $114M……room for an arm…… or least costly option of 2 arms.

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The doom and gloom and owner bashing today is pathetic.  We have very solid owners compared to most MLB franchises.  Yes, they are less ego driven than others, but they are very solid in terms of how they run this organization.  Overall, and relative to the rest of the league, the Twins are a well managed.

Re the team, everyone should just take a deep breath.  ‘24 is a transition year (albeit one in which will should still win the division and be competitive for the AL crown) to a fantastic young, cheap core coming in ‘25 and ‘26.  Let’s just keep our young talented depth and develop them so they reach their full potential.  Let them play.  We should 100% not move Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Martin, Wallner, the young catcher, etc.  Our outfield in ‘25, including platoon/DH types, very well could be Jenkins, Wallner, Rodriguez Martin, and Rosario - with all of them on league minimum. With Lewis, Lee, Kiriloff, and Julien, the infield is in a similar strong position. Correa and Buxton (hopefully) provide senior leadership. Arms are on the way as well.

Move Polanco (and Farmer if comfortable with Lee and Castro) and dumpster dive on a starter or two (Giolito, Bauer, etc.), Keep Kepler until at least the deadline.  Buxton, Martin, Castro and Gordon play center.  Win 90 games, have some playoff fun, and get ready for a huge open window for the second half of the 2020s!

Yep, nothing like waiting another ten years before playing in, much less winning, a post season game.

[Jeff K]

7 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The doom and gloom and owner bashing today is pathetic.  We have very solid owners compared to most MLB franchises.  Yes, they are less ego driven than others, but they are very solid in terms of how they run this organization.  Overall, and relative to the rest of the league, the Twins are a well managed.

Re the team, everyone should just take a deep breath.  ‘24 is a transition year (albeit one in which will should still win the division and be competitive for the AL crown) to a fantastic young, cheap core coming in ‘25 and ‘26.  Let’s just keep our young talented depth and develop them so they reach their full potential.  Let them play.  We should 100% not move Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Martin, Wallner, the young catcher, etc.  Our outfield in ‘25, including platoon/DH types, very well could be Jenkins, Wallner, Rodriguez Martin, and Rosario - with all of them on league minimum. With Lewis, Lee, Kiriloff, and Julien, the infield is in a similar strong position. Correa and Buxton (hopefully) provide senior leadership. Arms are on the way as well.

Move Polanco (and Farmer if comfortable with Lee and Castro) and dumpster dive on a starter or two (Giolito, Bauer, etc.), Keep Kepler until at least the deadline.  Buxton, Martin, Castro and Gordon play center.  Win 90 games, have some playoff fun, and get ready for a huge open window for the second half of the 2020s!

I agree with so much of this!  I'm not sure the Twins need to dumpster dive for their 5th starter.  If they move Polanco and Farmer, they ought to have financial room to bring in a quality starter; possibly Gray.  But the future for the Twins is their excellent, and still developing, young core which they should protect!

[Major League Ready]

6 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I can't imagine Gray getting a 4 year deal.  While you focused on Farmer, I think the more likely victim is Jorge Polanco.  The Twins have a surplus of infielders at the major league and in the high minors.  If Polanco is moved, that saves $10 Million and could bring a decent reliever (offset some of the $10 Million).  I agree that picking up an outfield bat is unlikely which tells me, the Twins will keep Kepler since this is NOT an area of strength.  

If the Twins are closer to $140 Million in payroll and make a couple of moves, they still could sign Gray.  I think the bigger problem is going to be having to pay our young stars what they are worth in the coming years.

In the next two years, assuming Polanco is traded and the others are retained, they still have $30M coming off between Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer, and Thielbar.  That will cover the arbitration increases.  I think it's also reasonable to believe that the TV revenue will get back to the previous level or perhaps even higher in 2-3 years as the new distribution model takes shape.  I also would not be surprised if someone like Amazon or Apple steps in relatively soon.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The doom and gloom and owner bashing today is pathetic.  We have very solid owners compared to most MLB franchises.  Yes, they are less ego driven than others, but they are very solid in terms of how they run this organization.  Overall, and relative to the rest of the league, the Twins are a well managed.

Re the team, everyone should just take a deep breath.  ‘24 is a transition year (albeit one in which will should still win the division and be competitive for the AL crown) to a fantastic young, cheap core coming in ‘25 and ‘26.  Let’s just keep our young talented depth and develop them so they reach their full potential.  Let them play.  We should 100% not move Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Martin, Wallner, the young catcher, etc.  Our outfield in ‘25, including platoon/DH types, very well could be Jenkins, Wallner, Rodriguez Martin, and Rosario - with all of them on league minimum. With Lewis, Lee, Kiriloff, and Julien, the infield is in a similar strong position. Correa and Buxton (hopefully) provide senior leadership. Arms are on the way as well.

Move Polanco (and Farmer if comfortable with Lee and Castro) and dumpster dive on a starter or two (Giolito, Bauer, etc.), Keep Kepler until at least the deadline.  Buxton, Martin, Castro and Gordon play center.  Win 90 games, have some playoff fun, and get ready for a huge open window for the second half of the 2020s!

They just won the division and a playoff series, and you think this is a transition year? Lopez is here and healthy.....why would you NOT try to get better next year? I don't understand this part of your post.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The doom and gloom and owner bashing today is pathetic.  We have very solid owners compared to most MLB franchises.  Yes, they are less ego driven than others, but they are very solid in terms of how they run this organization.  Overall, and relative to the rest of the league, the Twins are a well managed.

Re the team, everyone should just take a deep breath.  ‘24 is a transition year (albeit one in which will should still win the division and be competitive for the AL crown) to a fantastic young, cheap core coming in ‘25 and ‘26.  Let’s just keep our young talented depth and develop them so they reach their full potential.  Let them play.  We should 100% not move Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Martin, Wallner, the young catcher, etc.  Our outfield in ‘25, including platoon/DH types, very well could be Jenkins, Wallner, Rodriguez Martin, and Rosario - with all of them on league minimum. With Lewis, Lee, Kiriloff, and Julien, the infield is in a similar strong position. Correa and Buxton (hopefully) provide senior leadership. Arms are on the way as well.

Move Polanco (and Farmer if comfortable with Lee and Castro) and dumpster dive on a starter or two (Giolito, Bauer, etc.), Keep Kepler until at least the deadline.  Buxton, Martin, Castro and Gordon play center.  Win 90 games, have some playoff fun, and get ready for a huge open window for the second half of the 2020s!

The Twins were just in the ALDS for the first time in some poster's lifetime and you want people to accept that '24 is a "transition year?" Transition from what? You don't transition after a trip to the ALDS and having won your first playoff game in 19 years. 2023 was the transition year, and the next few are supposed to be the building on top years.

[jorgenswest]

I appreciate they shed light on their plans. They could have kept it in house.

[Jeff K]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

In the next two years, assuming Polanco is traded and the others are retained, they still have $30M coming off between Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer, and Thielbar.  That will cover the arbitration increases.  I think it's also reasonable to believe that the TV revenue will get back to the previous level or perhaps even higher in 2-3 years as the new distribution model takes shape.  I also would not be surprised if someone like Amazon or Apple steps in relatively soon.

I'd like to see Royce Lewis signed to a long term contract quickly rather than going through his arbitration years.  They ought to be able to lock him in for a longer contract and create some value.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Jeff K said:

I'd like to see Royce Lewis signed to a long term contract quickly rather than going through his arbitration years.  They ought to be able to lock him in for a longer contract and create some value.

 

He's been less healthy than Buxton.....I get the idea, I really do, but he literally spent two years not playing and only played (less than) half of this last year. Are we really sure he'll be healthy? I don't know....It's a pretty big risk. 

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The doom and gloom and owner bashing today is pathetic.  We have very solid owners compared to most MLB franchises.  Yes, they are less ego driven than others, but they are very solid in terms of how they run this organization.  Overall, the Twins are a well managed business.

Re the team, everyone should just take a deep breath.  ‘24 is a transition year (albeit one in which will should still win the division and be competitive for the AL crown) to a fantastic young, cheap core coming in ‘25 and ‘26.  Let’s just keep our young talented depth and develop them so they reach their full potential.  Let them play.  We should 100% not move Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Martin, Wallner, the young catcher, etc.  Our outfield in ‘25, including platoon/DH types very well could be Jenkins, Wallner, Rodriguez Martin, and Rosario - with all of them on league minimum. With Lewis, Lee, Kiriloff, and Julien, the infield is in a similar strong position. Arms are on the way as well.

Move Polanco (and Farmer if comfortable with Lee and Castro) and dumpster dive on a starter or two (Giolito, Bauer, etc.), Keep Kepler until at least the deadline.  Buxton, Martin, Castro and Gordon play center.  Win 90 games, have some playoff fun, and get ready for a huge open window for the second half of the 2020s!

Agree with the doom and gloom being pathetic.  However, I think you are going to lose people with it being a "transition" year because people are going to take that as stepping back when it sounds to me like you are talking about the young (cheap) guys taking roster spots which of course happened over the course of 23 and Lee/Severino are also on the door step.  It's also simply time to move on from Polanco.   I see the all of this as taking a step forward with the exception of the loss of Gray.  They are going to have to find a way to replace him and that probably was never going to be by signing Blake Snell or similar FAs.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think this also guarantees varland stays a starter. They aren't spending huge money on a free agent, marking the guy they get is higher risk to be great, meaning they need the depth. That's my theory anyway.

Typical Twins to throw cold water on the fans immediately after success. Sigh. 

Mike I am not so sure.  It really comes down to their opinion of him as a starter vs a reliever.  Honestly I think plays much better as a reliever than starter like many here.  If that is the case, they may think some of the other pitchers in the minors are similar (so redundant) and or they may be planning to trade for a #2.  I think this really comes down to their strategy and do they want a top heavy starting pitching staff again, at the expense of some prospects or young players.  I think we will really be increasing the minors depth significantly with last years draft class, add in this upcoming draft which should have 4 picks in the top 80 picks and it again should be a deep draft,  without the elite ceiling of Jenkins.   I think they trade for a #2 personally and possibly with some ammo from a Polanco or Kepler trade or just purely from prospects.   Someone who is likely viewed as a low #2 or #3 that they think they can improve with some tweaking or an added pitch.  Or they go heavy and go for a low #1, #2 pitcher in Logan Gilbert from Seattle who has been dangled for a while.   

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I kind of think this is much ado about nothing. Hayes didn't say anything concrete about the reasoning for the lower payroll, but since everyone has been talking about the TV deal, that's an obvious conclusion to draw, but even if they had MORE revenue, a step back in payroll seems like it was the logical thing anyway. Not to save money, but just how the roster is shaping up.

They NEVER sign top end pitching, and it's always because of the years it takes to get a deal done more so than the money. So signing a free agent to be the #2 was likely never going to happen unless a reunion with Gray was in the cards. Another trade is way more likely, and whomever they get is likely to be younger and more controllable, therefore cheaper than Gray's 12M salary last year.

Also, it's clearly time to move on from Polanco. Moving him would have next to nothing to do with salary anyway, there's just other players who've taken his job. Kepler is more likely to stay, but it might be time to move on from him as well, especially if there's a team that believes in his last three months of 2023 and forgets about the prior 3.5 years.

But most importantly, the young players have shown there's no need to sign the Joey Gallo/Christian Vazquez type free agents this year. There's no need to trade for a Kyle Farmer who'll eat up some of that budget. They don't need to bring in 3 or 4 or a half dozen new faces this year, and instead if they want one Rhys Hoskins or Teoscar Hernandez or Mitch Garver, there would still be room to do so.

Bottom line, with the lack of free agent bats available, this team's reluctance to give the extended years to top free agent pitchers, and the numerous young players who are ready for MLB action, I think payroll was going to be down regardless of any TV deal.  Though the TV deal may provide a bit of shade for the optics as it turns out.

I'd argue all this cheap talent makes this the absolute best time to go after a larger FA deal and not cut payroll. They NEVER signed top end hitting until the Donaldson and Correa deals. The reports were that they tried just as hard to sign Darvish and Wheeler, but just didn't get it done. I don't buy that they would never spend on FA pitching, they just won't go over their number on any player. If they find a pitcher they think is worth the money they'd absolutely spend just like they did on Donaldson and Correa, and (reportedly) tried to with Darvish and Wheeler.

Some of these young guys are going to fail. I know people don't like to hear it, but it's the truth. Lewis, Julien, and Wallner aren't even sure things to maintain their production over full seasons. The youth wave is not an excuse I think fans should accept either as a reason for cutting payroll. Simply maintaining this more than reasonable payroll mark opens way more doors than banking on multiple prospects turning into above average major leaguers. And I'm a prospect lover. But going from the ALDS to "we sure hope all these young guys succeed!" is a massive drop off and a huge risk. I don't buy that it's anything other than the TV deal/revenue driven.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Mike I am not so sure.  It really comes down to their opinion of him as a starter vs a reliever.  Honestly I think plays much better as a reliever than starter like many here.  If that is the case, they may think some of the other pitchers in the minors are similar (so redundant) and or they may be planning to trade for a #2.  I think this really comes down to their strategy and do they want a top heavy starting pitching staff again, at the expense of some prospects or young players.  I think we will really be increasing the minors depth significantly with last years draft class, add in this upcoming draft which should have 4 picks in the top 80 picks and it again should be a deep draft,  without the elite ceiling of Jenkins.   I think they trade for a #2 personally and possibly with some ammo from a Polanco or Kepler trade or just purely from prospects.   Someone who is likely viewed as a low #2 or #3 that they think they can improve with some tweaking or an added pitch.  Or they go heavy and go for a low #1, #2 pitcher in Logan Gilbert from Seattle who has been dangled for a while.   

I get that......but who is ready in AAA in case someone gets hurt, if not Varland?

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd argue all this cheap talent makes this the absolute best time to go after a larger FA deal and not cut payroll. They NEVER signed top end hitting until the Donaldson and Correa deals. The reports were that they tried just as hard to sign Darvish and Wheeler, but just didn't get it done. I don't buy that they would never spend on FA pitching, they just won't go over their number on any player. If they find a pitcher they think is worth the money they'd absolutely spend just like they did on Donaldson and Correa, and (reportedly) tried to with Darvish and Wheeler.

Some of these young guys are going to fail. I know people don't like to hear it, but it's the truth. Lewis, Julien, and Wallner aren't even sure things to maintain their production over full seasons. The youth wave is not an excuse I think fans should accept either as a reason for cutting payroll. Simply maintaining this more than reasonable payroll mark opens way more doors than banking on multiple prospects turning into above average major leaguers. And I'm a prospect lover. But going from the ALDS to "we sure hope all these young guys succeed!" is a massive drop off and a huge risk. I don't buy that it's anything other than the TV deal/revenue driven.

Some of the young guys will fail, but they all seem to fail much less frequently than the free agents they sign. 

I don't want them to spend money just to spend money, that's the exact reason Joey Gallo was on this club last year. If they move on from two of Polanco/Kepler/Farmer, which was probably the plan all along, they can still get a free agent of a caliber we're more hopeful for. One impact player, don't need to spend a bunch of money on bench filler this year.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

48 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Do you have information we are not aware of?  Has something with substantive information been published that illustrates how that revenue will be replaced or are you just making an assumption with nothing to support it?   

Not a lot of in depth knowledge needed here...  there will be a new television contract coming at some point.  That is just common sense as it benefits both the Twins and whatever broadcasting entity they sign with.  For everybody to act like those funds have been blown into the wind makes little sense.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

Number 8 .. trading Correa recoups that money and note, ads a couple top 50 minor league prospects to our farm system while giving a path for Lewus and Lee to take over the left side of our infield. 

 

Correa is not a necessity he'd a luxury we can't afford. 

It is important to understand that in consideration of the contract that he signed with us. He no longer has the type of trade value that will return "a couple of top 50 minor league prospects. 

When a free agent like Correa signs a large contract like he did with us. He is (typically) signing for more money than other teams are willing to pay him. That fact... immediately takes his trade value to zero because nobody else is willing to pay that contract... that's why we got him in the first place. 

Once you consider the contract... you need to consider the medical reports (Mets/Giants) which will further decrease long term contract interest. After you consider both of those things... you need to consider that Correa had a really really down year offensively so now you have to drop your trade value down even further below zero. 

The only way the Twins can get "a couple of top 50 prospects" in exchange for Carlos Correa is if the Twins were willing to EAT a large portion of the contract. In other words... send money to the acquiring team to bring his financial obligations down to a level that the acquiring team is comfortable with and therefore willing to give up two top 50 prospects. I have no idea how much money that would take but I assume... A LOT. 

So your next consideration is this: If the Twins need to commit a lot of money to make a trade happen. The club will be without a SS with dead money taking up payroll needed for other areas of improvement. This is not going to happen. 

I hope this helps.

A trade of Carlos Correa is not going to happen and when making plans you can write down Carlos Correa at SS. Lock it and throw away the key.    

[Jocko87]

31 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I appreciate they shed light on their plans. They could have kept it in house.

If anything, that's their mistake here, at least the timing of it.  I appreciate the transparency as well but with the fanbase prancing like a puppy for news this was going to get jumped on like crazy. 

Lots of stuff will happen in the next few months.  If they show up at spring training with another legit pitcher and a solid CF option who cares what the payroll is?  They could have a press conference in Ft Myers and be like duh, the payroll was always going to go down.  Do you like what we did?

And for the spend in the window crowd, that money is rarely actually spent in what you think is the window.  In business and sports, the smart money is spent before the window of success.  The Rangers example being used is backwards, they invested when they were terrible, they didn't load up this year.  Their big money guy pitched all of 30.1 innings this year.  If the Twins end up with a DeGrom situation everyone would lose their minds. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I get that......but who is ready in AAA in case someone gets hurt, if not Varland?

Ok so you have the following

Lopez, Traded pitcher, Ryan, Paddack, Ober

backups, Winder,  a likely AAA signee with a little more oomph than a Keuchel or Aaron Sanchez.  Someone who can pitch some innings early on if needed.  (Twins gain some respect with the Keuchel more in MLB is my guess).  Festa, Dobnak.   Maybe SWR surprises.  I guess I feel like there are enough options.  Not the level of Varland but close.  Honestly if we came to a break glass situation, you could just begin to lengthen Varland back out.