Two Reasons Why Sonny Gray Could Accept the Qualifying Offer

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins would love it if their reigning MVP would return to run it back on a one-year deal. Most assume he won't. But, are we totally positive?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Major League Baseball's current free agency model enables teams to extend a qualifying offer to free agents who are looking at big offseason paydays. As MLB explains:

"In the qualifying offer system, clubs wishing to receive compensatory Draft picks for the loss of a free agent can make a one-year 'qualifying offer,' worth the mean salary of MLB's 125 highest-paid players, to their impending free agents prior to the onset of free agency." 

This year, that equates to a one-year, $20.3 million deal. Given their payroll outlay circumstances, such a short-term pact to bring back the co-ace of of their 2023 rotation would be ideal for the Twins. That's why offering the QO to Gray is a total no-brainer. 

It's widely expected he will decline the offer and test free agency, which would yield a silver lining in the form of highly-valuable 2024 draft compensation. But then, the Twins front office is left to try and replace a Sonny Gray-sized hole in their rotation. 

The dominoes will soon begin to fall. Once the World Series concludes, teams have five days to decide whether to extend the QO, a mere formality on the Twins' part. From that point, Gray will have 10 days to accept or reject the offer. 

In other words: we're closing in on a three-week window that will decide Gray's future (or lack of one) with the Twins. 

Personally, I think it is very likely he will reject the qualifying offer and ultimately sign elsewhere. But I'm not as convinced as everyone that it's a total lock. 

Here are a few factors that lead me to believe it's at least possible Gray could shock the world and accept the qualifying offer to return and run it back with the Twins for one more year.

He cares more about winning than money.

"I'll say it because it's honest: Money is not the ultimate factor for me," Gray said after the Twins were eliminated from the playoffs. "Never has been. Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately.”

Granted, this was uttered in the same breath as Gray acknowledged he was "going to become a free agent,” but hey, people can change their minds over time. And maybe, as he reflects on the season that was, and the landscape ahead, the veteran starter will come to realize he'll have a tough time finding any situation as prime as Minnesota if he wants to confidently make it back the playoffs.

With a young emergent core powering a star-led team in a horrible division, the Twins are well positioned for success in 2024 and beyond. Meanwhile, an oft-mentioned destination for Gray in the offseason is St. Louis. I get that it's a storied franchise but the Cardinals finished in last place with 71 wins this year. They got dusted by the Pirates.

Gray wants to be valued appropriately, which is very much his right. Twenty million bucks is a pretty appropriate value, though it wouldn't come with any additional years of guaranteed money, and that is obviously the trade-off he must weigh. Then again, this is a guy who openly contemplated retirement in July. 

"It's not about the money," Gray echoed at the time. "It's whether you still enjoy it, and does your family still enjoy it.”

Sounds like someone who might see value in keeping his options open. A one-year contract that pays almost twice the highest salary he's ever earned would accomplish that. And it might be even more appealing when considering this: a realistic assessment of his situation suggests Gray might not be able to command quite the contract he hopes to land.

Several factors may limit Gray's market as a free agent.

Would Gray make more in a total free agency deal than the $20 million he would be guaranteed from accepting the QO? Undoubtedly. Will he make enough to render that decision completely moot? I'm not so sure.

Don't get me wrong, Gray is definitely hitting the market at a favorable time. He's coming off one of the best seasons of his career, in which he was one of the league's best pitchers. And this free agent class is fairly light on high-end starters. He'll have plenty of interest.

But front offices are fully aware that Gray is now 34, and that his performance in 2023 bore marks of unsustainability (ERA: 2.79, xERA: 3.69). They know he's historically had durability issues, and that his results owed partially to a manager who protected him from running up pitch counts or facing lineups too many times. (Ironic, eh?)

I am not by any means trying to downplay what Gray did this year, nor the impact he brought to the Twins. He was very deservingly team MVP. All I'm saying is, it's easy to see how the right-hander might view his "appropriate value" differently from an analytics-minded executive trying to project his production over the next three or four years. Especially when you account for that pesky draft pick compensation.

The qualifying offer is, ostensibly, beneficial for MLB's competitive balance. But it has a tendency to screw over free agents by limiting their market through no fault of their own. This is a path that's been traveled by many players over the years, including a former Twin who stands out as a pertinent example.

Carl Pavano joined the Twins in 2009 as a veteran trade acquisition, 33 years old at the time, and pitched some of his better late-career ball in Minnesota. After co-leading the 2010 rotation, he came up short in a postseason start, leaving a sour taste as he looked ahead to free agency. Sound familiar?

The Twins offered Pavano the 2010 version of a qualifying offer. (Remember Type-A and Type-B free agents??) He declined, and was thus saddled with a tag meaning the team signing him would need to forfeit a high draft pick in addition to winning the salary bid. 

Unsurprisingly, Pavano found a depressed market and ultimately ended up returning to the Twins, who got him at a discount (2 years, $16.5 million) specifically because they didn't need to give up a draft pick.

To be clear, Gray is a much better pitcher than Pavano, who astonishingly won 17 games with a 4.8 K/9 rate in 2010 – ah, what a different era of baseball – but examples like this are not uncommon. Unfortunately for Gray, his perceived weaknesses will only be magnified through the scope of his elevated cost, and that's a reality he needs to reckon with.

So, you look at this from Gray's perspective. He values winning above all, and just came close to making a deep postseason run. He isn't exactly sure how much longer he wants to keep playing. He has an opportunity to return for one year and $20 million, starring on a very likely playoff contender, in a situation where he's acclimated and comfortable. 

And then, however that plays out, he can finally hit free agency for the first time, with no risk of running into another qualifying offer. He'll be fully in control. Maybe with a World Series title under his belt? Hey, we're just riffing here.

Ultimately, Gray will probably decide the upside of testing the open market over the comfort and assurances of staying in Minnesota for one more year. No one could blame him. All I'm saying is, I'm holding out hope until I officially hear otherwise.

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[chpettit19]

@Nick Nelson I believe the Twins have 5 days to extend the offer after the WS then the player has 10 to decide on it.

[mnfireman]

Personally, I think it is very likely he will accept the qualifying offer and ultimately sign elsewhere. But I'm not as convinced as everyone that it's a total lock.

I don't think that's how it works...

[Johnny Ringo]

You wrote "Personally, I think it is very likely he will accept the qualifying offer and ultimately sign elsewhere."

I believe you mean reject.

I enjoy your writing Nick a lot but the parallel to Pavano is misplaced. Carl had issues both on the field (innumerable IL stints) and off (best unspoken) that limited his suitors. Sonny is a much better pitcher and has the bulldog mentality that is always coveted. 

Gray will get a 3 year/$60 million offer (at least) from somebody. The pressure to take it will come from multiple sources (the union, his agent, his relatives if they are anything like mine).

I hope the Twins can find it in their budget to keep him. He has the mentality of a champion.

 

[Karbo]

I'm thinking he will get at least a 3 year offer, which may be hard to match. However, the Twins could maybe offer a 2 year with higher annual value that maybe they would feel comfortable with. It all comes down to where does Gray want to play out the rest of his career.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

100% Gray will reject the offer.  That being said, there is still a decent chance he is pitching in a Twins uniform next year.  At this stage in his career, a 3/$45 contract is better than a 1/$20.
 

[LewFordLives]

[BH67]

Over the last decade, the only significant predictive variable in winning a World Series is having Bruce Bochy as your manager. Absent that, the Twins are as well placed as anyone to make a title run. I don't think that is enough for Sonny Gray to remain, but he's surely considering that factor.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Hard for me not to see him in a Braves uniform next year. They have pitching holes, an awful farm (can't trade for a starter), and Georgia is very close to Tennessee. Plus, Atlanta was the best regular-season team last year, so if it's about being competitive, it's hard not to choose Atlanta.

[Nashvilletwin]

The Twins have two very big holes in their lineup currently.  The first is in CF.  Reasonable options (stand alone or in combination with one another - Buxton, Martin, Castro, Gordon, Taylor) at little or not much extra cost exist to fill that hole.

The second is a dependable, innings eating #2 starter.  Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack have the other four spots.  Filling that hole is going to cost us - either in cash or trade capital. Gray is a perfect fit for that slot. Just go ahead and offer him a two year deal with a slight overpay to get him to stay.  Two years at $45MM and each side can call it a day.

BTW, our third biggest hole is probably one additional starter - a reliable #4 type who could also do pen work if necessary.  Maeda fits that role perfectly - but is probably too expensive.  This is where our trade capital could come in handy.   Just no more Mahle’s…..

[LewFordLives]

I don't think 3/$60 million is going to get it done. That's basically what Bassitt got last year, and Sonny Gray is coming off a better season.  It's probably gonna be at least 3/$75 million. I don't think I would go there given his age, but I don't think that will fit into the Twins payroll anyway, so it's a moot point.  

This is Gray's last and best shot at a big deal. He will hit the market. Good for him, bad for the Twins. 

[tony&rodney]

Sure, this could happen. Athletes bet on themselves all the time. The unknown is how long Sonny Gray sees himself as an effective starting pitcher. There is an enormous time commitment put into the conditioning work and mental preparation for the season, not to mention the physical and mental grind of the actual season itself. Gray has suggested that he is still improving as a pitcher. Another unknown is how other teams view Gray. His age may seem like a barrier for some but a few guys have shown that experience and knowing how to pitch remains more predictive of success that youth or power. I like the "Hey, we're just riffing here" comment. Sonny returns -nice.

[Dman]

I just can't see a scenario where a 34 year old pitcher coming off one of the best years of his career would accept a QO. If he got injured or was less effective than this year his market value could plummet and being a year older he might have to go year to year after that hard to say.  That is an enormous amount of risk to take on in fact I would argue a foolish amount of risk.

He literally is in the drivers seat pitching a full season and in the running for the Cy Young.  If ever there was a time to strike a multi year deal this is it.  He worked his ass off to get to this spot to take yet another one year chance just to remove the QO doesn't make any sense IMO.  

[Shaitan]

The only reason Gray accepts is if he's planning to retire in 1 year. Which you kinda-sorta said in the "cares more about winning" section.

[Shaitan]

It's a good problem for the Twins to have. 

1) They gain a draft choice. (which could entice them to sign another top free agent and 'swap picks')

or

2) They keep a reliable top of the rotation arm on a short-term deal. 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

I enjoy your writing Nick a lot but the parallel to Pavano is misplaced. Carl had issues both on the field (innumerable IL stints) and off (best unspoken) that limited his suitors. Sonny is a much better pitcher and has the bulldog mentality that is always coveted. 

Pavano had been incredibly healthy and durable when he hit the market, 55 starts and 420 total innings over the previous two years. I don't think durability was the on-field factor holding him back. Honestly not sure what off-field issues you are alluding to but I don't remember that being talked about during his free agency journey. The draft pick compensation was a really big issue in my recollection. 

[jjswol]

I for one would not be surprised if he accepts the Twins QO because it sounds like retirement is rearing its head for more family time and where else is he going to get that kind of money on a one year deal.

[Major League Ready]

and 50 million reasons he won't which is the rough amount of addition salary he will get in a multi year deal.  If there we a line on this in Vegas it would be a 20:1 payout.

[tony&rodney]

Sometimes it is time to move on to a different job or to a new location. I'm thinking Costa Rica or Panama. Moving and switching jobs is a pain in the ass. The nervousness and excitement can be a good thing too. 

There are as everyone knows, so many unknowns. Maybe Sonny Gray is tired of that routine. Perhaps Gray would like to repeat another year with the same basic collection of teammates, trainers, manager, and location. 

If Sonny feels like he wants to pitch one more year, someone will offer more than $20.5 million for the year and if he thinks he is just hitting a groove he should seek 4/$90 million. Gray gets to determine where he goes .... finally. The money is not an issue because he will get paid in any event.

[EGFTShaw]

The "expert" talking heads have Gray pegged around 3yr $20-24M/year.

So that's the baseline in the talks with Gray.

If it's not about the money, then he should at least listen to any 2-3yr offers the Twins have.

Actually, I am comfortable with Gray get paid this baseline by the Twins.

But the crap shoot is what is Gray thinking about his longevity of staying in the game.

Let's say it's 2 more years, then I would up the annual to him and add some bonuses.  He has been nothing but a class act and I think the work ethic that Pablo and SonnyG exhibit will go a long way in helping our younger pitchers develop a good WE too.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

100% Gray will reject the offer.  That being said, there is still a decent chance he is pitching in a Twins uniform next year.  At this stage in his career, a 3/$45 contract is better than a 1/$20.
 

I agree with the logic, but him signing somewhere else at that value would be a disappointment, because I believe the draft pick associated with the rejected QO will be lower if the player signs below a certain threshold.  $50M or so?  IMO the Twins should make him a serious offer that is at least as high as this threshold, and if he comes back to the team then great, and if he moves on then they get compensated at about the level of a Chase Petty, assuming they draft well.

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

The only reason Gray accepts is if he's planning to retire in 1 year. Which you kinda-sorta said in the "cares more about winning" section.

Even then I think he can do better than $20M on a 1 year deal.

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, jjswol said:

where else is he going to get that kind of money on a one year deal.

Literally anywhere else. He's a no-brainer for every team in baseball at 1 year $20M.

[umterp23]

Would a 2 year - $45MM guaranteed deal get him to stay?  

Year 1 - $24MM - Signing bonus of $10MM

Year 2 - $11MM - bonus reduces year 2 guarantee

 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

25 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I agree with the logic, but him signing somewhere else at that value would be a disappointment, because I believe the draft pick associated with the rejected QO will be lower if the player signs below a certain threshold.  $50M or so?  IMO the Twins should make him a serious offer that is at least as high as this threshold, and if he comes back to the team then great, and if he moves on then they get compensated at about the level of a Chase Petty, assuming they draft well.

My comment was more on the will he/won't he accept the QO.

I 100% agree with your comments.  They should make a threshold or market value run at him.  I think a 2/$45 with a 3rd year team option that guarantees with very attainable goals (20 starts or 120 innings in 2nd year) would work for both.  If another team wants to overpay for him, there is not much the Twins can do except take the draft pick.

I have said this elsewhere:  Gray has been extremely successful in Minnesota, the Twins will be in the playoff mix for the next 3-5 years, Minnesota is less stressful than NY, Boston, et al.  It is in both parties best interest to see if there is a common ground deal here.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If another team wants to overpay for him, there is not much the Twins can do except take the draft pick.

But what is an overpay? The last 3 seasons he's been worth $42M, $19M and $20M. If you like pitcher wins he's 2nd among active pitchers his age (to Gerrit Cole). I know he's getting older but the simplest projections would have him at least $30M projected value for 2024. If you knock 20% off for age every year that makes it a 3 year $73M contract. Someone will probably offer him 4 years $80M and that seems fair.

Yu Darvish got a 6 year $108M contract and he was older than Gray is now. I'd agree that anything over $108M is an overpay for Sonny Gray.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

But what is an overpay? The last 3 seasons he's been worth $42M, $19M and $20M. If you like pitcher wins he's 2nd among active pitchers his age (to Gerrit Cole). I know he's getting older but the simplest projections would have him at least $30M projected value for 2024. If you knock 80% off for age every year that makes it a 3 year $73M contract. Someone will probably offer him 4 years $80M and that seems fair.

Yu Darvish got a 6 year $108M contract and he was older than Gray is now. I'd agree that anything over $108M is an overpay for Sonny Gray.

In checking around:

NBC Sports is predicting 3/$90m
Bleacher Reports is predicting 3/$65m
Athletic is predicting 3/$64m
Spotrac is predicting 3/$66m

Take these with a grain of salt, but I would be ok with a 3/60ish contract.

Just my personal opinion:  I don't like anything over 3-4 years for ANY pitcher.  I think the risk is too high for anything longer and they are almost guaranteed to be an albatross at the end.

 

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Hard for me not to see him in a Braves uniform next year. They have pitching holes, an awful farm (can't trade for a starter), and Georgia is very close to Tennessee. Plus, Atlanta was the best regular-season team last year, so if it's about being competitive, it's hard not to choose Atlanta.

Have you driven in Atlanta traffic?  He could drive back to Tennessee from Minneapolis in the same amount of time due to the traffic there.  
 

Gray has several options Atlanta if they have it in their budget, St Louis,  Cincinnati, Cubs, and Philadelphia.

 I like continuity so I hope he stays,  but I know lots of money is involved.  Of free agents you gamble on I would have thought Bassit last offseason and Gray this one would be likely to be worth their values of their contract. 

[Nine of twelve]

Question: If he rejects the QO but then signs here as a free agent do we still get the compensatory draft pick? My assumption is that we do.

[FlyingFinn]

4 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Question: If he rejects the QO but then signs here as a free agent do we still get the compensatory draft pick? My assumption is that we do.

No.