Two Reasons Why Sonny Gray Could Accept the Qualifying Offer

Personally, I think it is very likely he will accept the qualifying offer and ultimately sign elsewhere. But I'm not as convinced as everyone that it's a total lock.

I don't think that's how it works...

You wrote "Personally, I think it is very likely he will accept the qualifying offer and ultimately sign elsewhere."

I believe you mean reject.

I enjoy your writing Nick a lot but the parallel to Pavano is misplaced. Carl had issues both on the field (innumerable IL stints) and off (best unspoken) that limited his suitors. Sonny is a much better pitcher and has the bulldog mentality that is always coveted. 

Gray will get a 3 year/$60 million offer (at least) from somebody. The pressure to take it will come from multiple sources (the union, his agent, his relatives if they are anything like mine).

I hope the Twins can find it in their budget to keep him. He has the mentality of a champion.

100% Gray will reject the offer.  That being said, there is still a decent chance he is pitching in a Twins uniform next year.  At this stage in his career, a 3/$45 contract is better than a 1/$20.
 

Over the last decade, the only significant predictive variable in winning a World Series is having Bruce Bochy as your manager. Absent that, the Twins are as well placed as anyone to make a title run. I don't think that is enough for Sonny Gray to remain, but he's surely considering that factor.

Hard for me not to see him in a Braves uniform next year. They have pitching holes, an awful farm (can't trade for a starter), and Georgia is very close to Tennessee. Plus, Atlanta was the best regular-season team last year, so if it's about being competitive, it's hard not to choose Atlanta.

The Twins have two very big holes in their lineup currently.  The first is in CF.  Reasonable options (stand alone or in combination with one another - Buxton, Martin, Castro, Gordon, Taylor) at little or not much extra cost exist to fill that hole.

The second is a dependable, innings eating #2 starter.  Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack have the other four spots.  Filling that hole is going to cost us - either in cash or trade capital. Gray is a perfect fit for that slot. Just go ahead and offer him a two year deal with a slight overpay to get him to stay.  Two years at $45MM and each side can call it a day.

BTW, our third biggest hole is probably one additional starter - a reliable #4 type who could also do pen work if necessary.  Maeda fits that role perfectly - but is probably too expensive.  This is where our trade capital could come in handy.   Just no more Mahle’s…..

Sure, this could happen. Athletes bet on themselves all the time. The unknown is how long Sonny Gray sees himself as an effective starting pitcher. There is an enormous time commitment put into the conditioning work and mental preparation for the season, not to mention the physical and mental grind of the actual season itself. Gray has suggested that he is still improving as a pitcher. Another unknown is how other teams view Gray. His age may seem like a barrier for some but a few guys have shown that experience and knowing how to pitch remains more predictive of success that youth or power. I like the "Hey, we're just riffing here" comment. Sonny returns -nice.

The only reason Gray accepts is if he's planning to retire in 1 year. Which you kinda-sorta said in the "cares more about winning" section.

It's a good problem for the Twins to have. 

1) They gain a draft choice. (which could entice them to sign another top free agent and 'swap picks')

or

2) They keep a reliable top of the rotation arm on a short-term deal. 

I for one would not be surprised if he accepts the Twins QO because it sounds like retirement is rearing its head for more family time and where else is he going to get that kind of money on a one year deal.

and 50 million reasons he won't which is the rough amount of addition salary he will get in a multi year deal.  If there we a line on this in Vegas it would be a 20:1 payout.

Sometimes it is time to move on to a different job or to a new location. I'm thinking Costa Rica or Panama. Moving and switching jobs is a pain in the ass. The nervousness and excitement can be a good thing too. 

There are as everyone knows, so many unknowns. Maybe Sonny Gray is tired of that routine. Perhaps Gray would like to repeat another year with the same basic collection of teammates, trainers, manager, and location. 

If Sonny feels like he wants to pitch one more year, someone will offer more than $20.5 million for the year and if he thinks he is just hitting a groove he should seek 4/$90 million. Gray gets to determine where he goes .... finally. The money is not an issue because he will get paid in any event.

The "expert" talking heads have Gray pegged around 3yr $20-24M/year.

So that's the baseline in the talks with Gray.

If it's not about the money, then he should at least listen to any 2-3yr offers the Twins have.

Actually, I am comfortable with Gray get paid this baseline by the Twins.

But the crap shoot is what is Gray thinking about his longevity of staying in the game.

Let's say it's 2 more years, then I would up the annual to him and add some bonuses.  He has been nothing but a class act and I think the work ethic that Pablo and SonnyG exhibit will go a long way in helping our younger pitchers develop a good WE too.

42 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

The only reason Gray accepts is if he's planning to retire in 1 year. Which you kinda-sorta said in the "cares more about winning" section.

Even then I think he can do better than $20M on a 1 year deal.

38 minutes ago, jjswol said:

where else is he going to get that kind of money on a one year deal.

Literally anywhere else. He's a no-brainer for every team in baseball at 1 year $20M.

Would a 2 year - $45MM guaranteed deal get him to stay?  

Year 1 - $24MM - Signing bonus of $10MM

Year 2 - $11MM - bonus reduces year 2 guarantee

25 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I agree with the logic, but him signing somewhere else at that value would be a disappointment, because I believe the draft pick associated with the rejected QO will be lower if the player signs below a certain threshold.  $50M or so?  IMO the Twins should make him a serious offer that is at least as high as this threshold, and if he comes back to the team then great, and if he moves on then they get compensated at about the level of a Chase Petty, assuming they draft well.

My comment was more on the will he/won't he accept the QO.

I 100% agree with your comments.  They should make a threshold or market value run at him.  I think a 2/$45 with a 3rd year team option that guarantees with very attainable goals (20 starts or 120 innings in 2nd year) would work for both.  If another team wants to overpay for him, there is not much the Twins can do except take the draft pick.

I have said this elsewhere:  Gray has been extremely successful in Minnesota, the Twins will be in the playoff mix for the next 3-5 years, Minnesota is less stressful than NY, Boston, et al.  It is in both parties best interest to see if there is a common ground deal here.

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If another team wants to overpay for him, there is not much the Twins can do except take the draft pick.

But what is an overpay? The last 3 seasons he's been worth $42M, $19M and $20M. If you like pitcher wins he's 2nd among active pitchers his age (to Gerrit Cole). I know he's getting older but the simplest projections would have him at least $30M projected value for 2024. If you knock 20% off for age every year that makes it a 3 year $73M contract. Someone will probably offer him 4 years $80M and that seems fair.

Yu Darvish got a 6 year $108M contract and he was older than Gray is now. I'd agree that anything over $108M is an overpay for Sonny Gray.

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

But what is an overpay? The last 3 seasons he's been worth $42M, $19M and $20M. If you like pitcher wins he's 2nd among active pitchers his age (to Gerrit Cole). I know he's getting older but the simplest projections would have him at least $30M projected value for 2024. If you knock 80% off for age every year that makes it a 3 year $73M contract. Someone will probably offer him 4 years $80M and that seems fair.

Yu Darvish got a 6 year $108M contract and he was older than Gray is now. I'd agree that anything over $108M is an overpay for Sonny Gray.

In checking around:

NBC Sports is predicting 3/$90m
Bleacher Reports is predicting 3/$65m
Athletic is predicting 3/$64m
Spotrac is predicting 3/$66m

Take these with a grain of salt, but I would be ok with a 3/60ish contract.

Just my personal opinion:  I don't like anything over 3-4 years for ANY pitcher.  I think the risk is too high for anything longer and they are almost guaranteed to be an albatross at the end.

 

2 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Hard for me not to see him in a Braves uniform next year. They have pitching holes, an awful farm (can't trade for a starter), and Georgia is very close to Tennessee. Plus, Atlanta was the best regular-season team last year, so if it's about being competitive, it's hard not to choose Atlanta.

Have you driven in Atlanta traffic?  He could drive back to Tennessee from Minneapolis in the same amount of time due to the traffic there.  
 

Gray has several options Atlanta if they have it in their budget, St Louis,  Cincinnati, Cubs, and Philadelphia.

 I like continuity so I hope he stays,  but I know lots of money is involved.  Of free agents you gamble on I would have thought Bassit last offseason and Gray this one would be likely to be worth their values of their contract. 

Question: If he rejects the QO but then signs here as a free agent do we still get the compensatory draft pick? My assumption is that we do.

4 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Question: If he rejects the QO but then signs here as a free agent do we still get the compensatory draft pick? My assumption is that we do.

No.