Is Christian Vazquez Too Expensive for the 2024 Twins Roster?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins signed Christian Vazquez last winter to add depth at the catcher position. However, he just finished one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, and Minnesota might need to shed some veteran salary.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

One year ago, the Twins wondered what to do about the catcher position. Gary Sanchez had led the team in appearances during the 2022 season but was heading to free agency. Minnesota wanted a veteran player to pair with Ryan Jeffers behind the plate. Early in the offseason, the Twins identified Vazquez as their top free agent target and quickly signed him to a three-year, $30 million deal. The team brought him in to provide solid defense, hoping he could provide some offense at the back end of the lineup.

Vazquez struggled offensively during his first season with the Twins. In 102 games, he hit .223/.280/.318 (.598) with 19 extra-base hits and 82 strikeouts. His 65 OPS+ was his lowest total since 2018. According to FanGraphs, Vazquez provided the Twins with $7.6 million worth of value during the 2023 season. Over the last five seasons, Vazquez has been worth anywhere from $28.1 million (2019) to $2.7 million (2021). There have been good and bad seasons throughout his career, so the Twins can hope he bounces back in 2024. 

Even with poor offensive totals, Vazquez remains a strong defensive catcher. He ranked fifth among AL catchers in SABR’s Defensive Index when the totals were last updated. Baseball Savant ranked him in the 70th percentile or higher in Blocks Above Average and Framing while also being above average in Pop Time. His Caught Stealing Above Average moved from the 34th percentile last season to the 61st percentile in 2023. His defensive numbers and how he handles a pitching staff are the main reasons the Twins continued to split time between their two catchers. 

Minnesota’s evolving payroll situation is in flux entering the offseason. The Twins are unsure of their television home for 2024 and beyond after their contract with Bally Sports expired at the season’s end. As John wrote over the weekend, the team’s TV rights were worth $54.8 million in 2023, and that revenue is in question for next season. Last year, the Twins' payroll was a team record $154 million on Opening Day, and the Twins have roughly $124 million committed for next season if they bring everyone back besides free agents. The Twins can trade away higher-priced veterans to open some spending, but the team will likely have to pay some of Vazquez’s contract to get anything back.

The Twins have an intriguing catching prospect that played the entire 2023 season at Triple-A. Jair Camargo was acquired along with Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers leading into the 2020 season. At the time, he was a 20-year-old catcher who had yet to play a game above the High-A level. In 2023, he played 90 games at Triple-A and hit .259/.323/.503 (.826) with 16 doubles and 21 home runs. Camargo became a minor-league free agent last year but quickly signed to stay with the Twins. He is a logical candidate for the Twins to add to the 40-man roster, and they will need to do so before he again becomes a free agent at the completion of the World Series. Would the front office trust him enough to take over a backup role to Jeffers?

The free-agent catcher market is sparse this winter, which might make teams more interested in trading for Vazquez. Former Twins Mitch Garver and Gary Sanchez are some of the best options, and both players have flaws in their game. Garver is seen more as a DH option, with the Rangers giving him fewer than 30 starts behind the plate. In addition to Garver's forearm surgery that cut his 2022 season in half, Jonah Heim has become an All Star backstop for the Rangers. Sanchez struggled to find an organization last season before finding a home in San Diego and posting a 116 OPS+ in 72 games. Neither player is considered strong behind the plate, and that’s why organizations might start looking for trade options. 

The Twins still like Vazquez, and they likely believe he can return to his previous offensive production. He previously had poor seasons and bounced back nicely the following year. However, Vazquez is 33 years old, and he’s caught over 6,200 innings at the big-league level. That’s a lot of wear and tear on a player’s legs, which can impact offensive performance toward the end of a career. Minnesota must decide which version of Vazquez will enter spring training next season. 

Depth became a theme for the 2023 Twins, and it’s likely one reason the team won the AL Central. Minnesota was lucky to make it through the season by only needing two catchers for the entire season. That won’t happen again next year, so the Twins will likely keep Vazquez and find other spots on the roster to make cuts. 

Will the Twins keep Vazquez or try to trade him? What kind of value does he have on the trade market? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

I would keep him. Got lucky this year with no catcher getting hurt. Big gamble on 2 years with no injury to a catcher.

[LewFordLives]

As you stated, the Twins were very fortunate on the injury front with regards to their catchers this past season. I suspect one of the reasons they signed Vasquez was because they didn't want to end up in a position like they were in 2022, when Sandy Leon was having to get a fair number of at bats down the stretch. For that reason, I don't see Vasquez going anywhere.

[kenneth frank]

Don't turn a strength at this position into a weakness, nor do you want to do to Jeffers what they did to Mauer. Keep Vazquez and see how the season rolls and his true value might come at the trade deadline.

[JoeCool]

Keep him for sure. I expect he can bounce back offensively and defensively he brings a lot to help get more out of our pitchers as well.  His price tag is a bit steep, but good catchers are hard to come by and he brings upside with his bat that we have yet to see but he has proven it over his career.  

I expect a bounce back season for him just as I expect Correa to perform better as well in 2024.

[DJL44]

Vazquez is still a plus defensive catcher. His batting line wasn't great but was pulled down by an especially bad May. 

I completely reject that the new TV contract means the Twins need to start cutting payroll. They already receive more money in revenue sharing than they pay out in payroll. That means payroll is covered before they sell one ticket or one hot dog. They could afford to spend like San Diego but choose not to.

[HrbieFan]

Twins would be stupid not to listen to offers, though I would not sell low. We have needs in the OF, SP and pitching prospects.  If I can get a starting RH OF and a pitching prospect, I'm moving him 

[miracleb]

There is no trade value......he isn't going anywhere.  How are Carmargo's defense skills viewed (anyone have any insight?)

[Mike h]

A  recent thread discussed why the pitching staff was so darn good this year, but it didn't mention Vasquez.  So it made me wonder, do the pitchers like throwing to him? Do they give him any credit for their success?  I wonder if they pitched well because of him or in spite of him.  I know there are pitchers around the league who love their catcher so much that they won't throw to anyone else. Any Twins pitchers feel that way about Vasquez?  I may not have paid close enough attention, but I don't recall any pitchers' comments  about him, good or bad. In any case, I believe the adage that a teamust be strong defensively up the middle, starting with the catcher.  A good BA is a bonus. So, to keep him or trade him? I couldn't decide until I know the answers to the above questions.

[Mike h]

Sorry for the underlining. I didn't realize it was on.

[specialiststeve]

Having a TOP defensive catcher is every "good" teams priority. Having 2 Very good catchers is a VERY good thing. Offense is a bonus. How was our pitching staff this year? That is DIRECTLY mirrored by our catching.... they go together. (See St. Louis if doubt) 

With the possible loss of Maeta and Gray means we need to have great catching to direct our staff.. as the saying goes. 

"If it ain't broken... don't fix it" 

[Fatbat]

13 minutes ago, miracleb said:

There is no trade value......he isn't going anywhere.  How are Carmargo's defense skills viewed (anyone have any insight?)

Carmargo is still bat first but defensive skills are coming strong. Once Vasquez moves on, we will have an awesome catcher tandem! Vasquez will likely only catch 50-65 games in 2024 so his bat should rebound when he is in the lineup. Is $10M to expensive? Heck no!!! His experience is well worth that contract!! If Carmargo makes big strides in 2024 and we are rolling to a deep playoff run in 2024, we could trade Vasquez next offseason but this year? No way!!!

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Vazquez is still a plus defensive catcher. His batting line wasn't great but was pulled down by an especially bad May. 

I completely reject that the new TV contract means the Twins need to start cutting payroll. They already receive more money in revenue sharing than they pay out in payroll. That means payroll is covered before they sell one ticket or one hot dog. They could afford to spend like San Diego but choose not to.

The other 300 employees still need to be paid.  Travel / Equipment / office space / and Target field operations still need to be paid. Revenue goes down and spending goes down just like every other for-profit business in America.  I am not hoping they do something differently than every other business.  I am hoping they find a profitable distribution channel.

[Johnny Ringo]

Lets put it this way. I am sure the FO would gladly shred this contract if they could. But hey, you make omelets and you are going to break eggs. 

I am not sure how Fan Graphs derives $7.6 worth of 2023 value from him as he had negative WAR for the season.

I agree with Miracleb; moving Vasquez is an academic question. No one will take that contract unless the Twins eat all or most of it which defeats the purpose.   

Sanchez played for $1 million last year. Would I rather have Sanchez and $9 million for the next two years to sign Gray? Yes, I would. 

 

[jmlease1]

Moving Vazquez would be a poor choice. Because of his contract coming off a poor offensive season, he's not going to bring anything significant back, so all it would be is a salary dump...and even then the Twins would have to eat a decent portion of the contract to get someone else to take him off their hands, so how much do you really save? And then you need to get a backup in place, because even if you want to ride Jeffers a little more heavily you just can't count on a catcher going more than 120 games these days. If they go with Carmago for that role, they have no options if he's not ready to handle it, and pretty screwed if Jeffers goes down with injury.

Might they look to move Vazquez after next season, if Carmago looks ready/continues to show things? Sure. And hopefully at that point he's rebounded a little more value on the offensive side and on an expiring deal would be much easier to move: not much risk in a 1-year deal. The defense is still good from Vazquez, and he can be a quality backup for Jeffers next season that can add more value than this season.

If they really need to save payroll, Farmer or Polanco are more likely options to be dealt: both would bring back a better return and could be moved without having to retain any of their salary, and both are in positions of better depth from the team.

[Whitey333]

They can afford Vasquez

  If they can throw 11 million on Gallo that produced mostly strikeouts and contributed very little, they can afford to keep Vasquez.  At least he had some proven value in prior years.  Gallo with his .199 lifetime average and a strikeout rate approaching 40% was rewarded with an 11 million contract last year.  I know Gallo isn't a catcher.  Just using the financial example.  Keep Vazques.  He's bound to get better.  Plus maybe he can teach Jeffers how to play defense.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I would keep him. Got lucky this year with no catcher getting hurt. Big gamble on 2 years with no injury to a catcher.

If you consider the entire financial outlay for the catcher position (both Jeffers and Vazquez) in 2023 the Twins did very well.. as the writers themselves note, with only two warm bodies. Honestly it shouldn't be the only factor, but they should ask Pablo for his input.

[Doctor Gast]

The intangible of how Vazquez handles pitchers is invaluable. One of the main reasons why our pitchers were very successful and Jeffers's improvement is because of him. Which he doesn't get enough credit for. His addition took us from last year's bottom-of-the-barrel to upper average.

It's a shame we don't have a high-ceiling-catching prospect to take advantage of Vazquez's mentoring. Our highest-catching prospect is Cosetti,  which is 466th on Roto's list & high A. Carmargo could be OK for MLB 3rd catcher but I don't see him as backup. 

Twins don't put enough importance on athletic/good-hitting catchers. A slow, low-average catcher that can hit an occasional homer is good enough for them. Catching is a premium position, the Twins catching depth is very shallow they should put importance on it in last year's draft. Cole Carrigg which IMO was the 2nd best college catcher, was available to us in the 2nd round. Instead, they picked up an inferior prospect at 2B where we have a large glut.

Should we trade Vazquez? I don't think so. We still lack depth & we'd get nobody in return because of his contract.

[tony&rodney]

No, Christian Vazquez is not too expensive for 2024. Starting pitching is critical to any winning team and then it is necessary to have someone to catch the ball. Until the Twins have someone better in their system to promote and another guy as a backup in case of an injury, Vazquez stays. Camargo is the backup now. Perhaps after next season Noah Cardenas rises to become a worthwhile MLB catcher. No more Sanchez or Garver guys behind the plate says every pitcher ever.

[mikelink45]

It depends on the payroll and the TV contract - if they have the money they keep him, if they are tight they trade him.

[Guest]

Buy high, sell low.  Seen it before and it never seems to get old....

[Fatbat]

@Doctor Gast I still a bit salty about Carigg not being drafted by the FO.

 

[arby58]

3 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

Twins would be stupid not to listen to offers, though I would not sell low. We have needs in the OF, SP and pitching prospects.  If I can get a starting RH OF and a pitching prospect, I'm moving him 

It's difficult to think they would get either of these, let alone both, for him, unless they assume most of his salary.

[DocBauer]

1] Having 2 quality catchers is HUGE, even if one is obviously the better offensively. (The one who is becoming the primary backstop).

2] COMBINED cost of Vazquez and Jeffers next season is around $13M I believe. Of, slightly more than Gallo this last year, or Kepler or Polanco this upcoming season. This is easily affordable.

3] While nothing backstops are solid as a brick wall, it's hard to expect another full season from both with not a single game missed. Camargo is a good looking #3 who is going to get his shot at some point.

4] Coming off a down year offensively, the Twins would almost certainly have to eat a little of Vazquez's deal, unless some team were really desperate and willing to take it all on. But what's he worth on the return side? And is saving even $6-7M worth it while shortening  the position for a kid who hasn't seen a ML pitch yet and then having virtually nothing for the #3 spot?

Vazquez is more than worth keeping, is not a financial burden, and should be on the 2024 roster unless someone comes knocking with a hell of an offer.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 hours ago, Mike h said:

Sorry for the underlining. I didn't realize it was on.

I thought you were just excited about your post. :)

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Buy high, sell low.  Seen it before and it never seems to get old....

My favorite ploy for handling stocks. Always worth it because my wife gets excited by the sameness of my financial acumen.

[rv78]

Vazquez hit .223 this year. Now all of the sudden he's not worth $10M per year and people think he should be traded. Evidently his defense and dugout presence isn't worth anything. Correa hit .230 this year. He made $33.3M and almost everyone here thinks he's worth every cent he gets regardless of how bad he was offensively because he also plays great defense and is a leader in the clubhouse. I don't get it. Maybe my Kool-Aid didn't come from a Dior store.

[JD-TWINS]

Nobody is going to pick up his salary in a trade - that’s the reality of whether or not Twins can afford him in ‘24. He has a contract. ‘25 as well.

Only trade chance would be to trade him with another guy that can play and doesn’t make any money yet.

It sounds to me like he was the 5th best defensive catcher in the AL……..he’ll be our back up in ‘24 and still start 40% of the games to keep Jeffers healthy & fresh.

My assumption is Jeffers makes $2M or less at this point in his career - so, $12M total for 2 catchers that are very competent is not too much money. Basically, since they signed Vazquez the offensive stats between the two guys flipped.

Not a big problem for the organization.

Keeping the Kid at triple A under control & keeping him interested is the challenge. Next year (‘25) - if desired, they may negotiate his $ owed to $5M and let him be a FA - doubtful he doesn’t get all $20M owed from the Twins.

[DJL44]

On 10/21/2023 at 8:47 AM, Major League Ready said:

The other 300 employees still need to be paid.  Travel / Equipment / office space / and Target field operations still need to be paid. Revenue goes down and spending goes down just like every other for-profit business in America.  I am not hoping they do something differently than every other business.  I am hoping they find a profitable distribution channel.

None of those expenses make the Twins any different than the Padres. The Twins are probably 8 figures ($100M+) in profit.

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

None of those expenses make the Twins any different than the Padres. The Twins are probably 8 figures ($100M+) in profit.

They have been around 270-300M revenue.  A 153M payroll also has roughly $17M is payroll taxes and player benefits.  That’s $170M.  Therefore, they would have to have operating costs of nest to nothing to arrive at the number you have come up with.  The articles I have seen on operating expenses suggested they run 30-35% revenue which is roughly $90M leaving a profit of $10-$40M which is consistent with the estimates we have all seen.  Just throwing a number out there is not credible.  Show us some foundation or any other publication that has arrived at the same conclusion.