Gray wants to Stay?

[wabene]

Per an article by Dan Hayes of the Athletic titled, "Sonny Gray is open to a reunion, says money isn't the only factor". Dan goes on, "Gray’s comments may come as a surprise to many who believe he and Rocco Baldelli are at odds because of the perception the Twins manager doesn’t allow starters to pitch deep into games — a belief proven incorrect this season when Twins starters finished fourth in baseball in innings pitched with 895 innings".  

Gray has said he wanted to test free agency, but now sees how the Twins, their culture and future prospects for wins checks so many boxes for him. He likes the family friendly culture. Having pitched under the bright lights of NY and in the band box in Cincy, Target Field doesn't seem so shabby, lol.

He does want to be paid fairly, but what makes me think this may not get done is while saying he has no desire for retirement, he mentions 3-4 years. That is the part I'm not sure the Twins would be on board with. 

 

For your dining pleasure, lol. 

[Doctor Wu]

It's only a guess, but I think after some initial frustration, Gray ended up liking his time with the Twins. If he's saying that he's open to signing with us again, that doesn't shock me, but then again, money can be a huge factor and if someone else offers him a multi-year with big dollars, I can see him going elsewhere. Frankly, his age and injury history (nothing major, but he always had IL stints in the past) won't help his bargaining power, but after the terrific year he just had, he's in the driver's seat. 

[LonelyseatinMOA]

I honestly don't want him unless its a one year deal 

[DJL44]

It would be beyond stupid to remove a bidder before free agency even begins.

[Riverbrian]

Whatever deal Sonny gets next year and whatever team he signs with... One thing is for sure. Sonny has earned whatever he gets and he has especially earned the right to choose. 

He was fantastic last year and he has also been really good over his career with 3.47 ERA over 1,571 innings. Wherever he lands... I'll be happy for him. I'd love to see Sonny back in a Minnesota uniform but will hold no ill will if he goes elsewhere. 

As for the narrative that Sonny and Rocco were at odds over his short starts in 2022. Let's go back to July 2, 2018.

On that day... The Twins front office sent Byron Buxton down to the minor leagues for the rest of the season leaving Byron 12 days short of service time and delaying his free agency eligibility by a full year.

Many in the Twinsdaily crowd were angry claiming that Byron was screwed by the Twins and that Byron was sure to be gone when the opportunity to leave presented itself.  

On November 28, 2021... Byron Buxton signed 7 year extension to remain in Minnesota. 

Just another attempt to climb into the heads of others without a decent sized earhole to make it through. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

What this shows is the Twins run a solid organization.  The pitchers specifically improved and there are more arms coming.  Also yes he vented some frustration last year, but it seems the Twins listened.  Having a 2 way conversation always makes the player feel better.   Gray really seems to do well in a small or smaller mid market organization.  I believe he knows this.  Its fairly obvious those comments from earlier in the year about retiring are thing of the past.  So we have 1 side willing it appears.  

There is still significant hurdles to make a deal come to fruition.  First the Twins also have to be interested.  Secondly once money starts getting thrown around he would have to take a reasonable deal with the Twins,  I have a feeling a few teams will throw out some high numbers.  

If we are signing we have to know that this is likely his high water mark and this year will be incredibly difficult to replicate.  I think his average year are usually a 1 to 2 WAR.  

Next thing you have to calculate is what is the value of the pick if he were to sign for more else where if you gave him the Qualifying Offer,  there is a possibility but unlikely that he would accept.   I think Sonny wants to cash in on this year though and mentioned 3-4 more years.   I said yesterday I felt his chance of resigning were better than 0 but still low.  

[farmerguychris]

I don't think this changes our plans.  Make him the qualifying offer, he'll decline said qualifying offer.  If he gets interest and signed, we get a comp draft pick, if he doesn't get offers, then I think we have a possibility of resigning him - but I would doubt they want to offer him anything longer than 2 years with a team option for the 3rd.  He was a bulldog for us and I'd be happy to have him back, but at a reasonable price for a 2nd tier starter.

[IndianaTwin]

I read the article as well.

Put me in the camp that was saying, "This means nothing," when he was supposedly complaining earlier and talking of retirement. If anything, I registered his "complaints" as a net positive. It told me he was a competitive player who is confident in his ability and wants to take on the challenge. I want a guy on my team who wants the ball when the game's on the line. I'd be more concerned if he was saying, "I was hoping Rocco would come out and pull me." 

Like others, I think length will be the bigger obstacle than AAV and think it's relatively likely that at least one team out of 30 will be willing to go four years. I don't think the Twins will be one of those, however.

RB used the Buxton example as another where folks read more into a situation than was there. Like RB, I think these are both examples of the intangible "culture" the Twins have developed. Ultimately, dollars are going to speak pretty loud, but I think the FO has reached the point where players and agents are going to pick up the phone* when they see Falvey's name on caller ID.

 

*Pick up the phone"? How old is IT? Probably still has rotary dial.  

[Dman]

I will say I was mildly surprised that he sounded genuine about wanting to be back.  Still most every player likes to stay in the same place as long as possible to keep their family in the same place and so they pretty much always say they would like to stay until a better offer comes around,.

I think he will be highly sought after this offseason and I don't see a ton of financial flexibility for the club with Pablo's contract taking hold and Correa and Buxton's Salaries things are getting tighter on the payroll end.  He should easily get 25M to 30M per year and I think he can get three years with maybe an option for four.  That seems high for the Twins.  For me I don't see a deal getting done but then I didn't see the Correa deal working out either so it could happen but it is a long shot IMO.

FWIW I would like to have Sonny back.  Really good leadership, not afraid to speak his mind and tireless worker toward perfection he is an asset that will be sorely missed if he leaves.  Those are big shoes to fill if he isn't here next year, but hopefully this team takes it up another notch regardless of what happens with Sonny.

[Riverbrian]

I've heard people say that Joe Ryan is gone now because he is so out of his mind angry that Rocco pulled him after two innings. 

The winter of 2028 is gonna suck.   

 

 

[Vanimal46]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It would be beyond stupid to remove a bidder before free agency even begins.

Correct. What else would Sonny Gray say at this time? Of course he should consider returning to the organization where he’s played his best stretch of baseball in his career. 

[Squirrel]

I might do 2-3 yrs (I said might) for Gray. More than that? I'd be leery. I think he's a good mentor and would like to see him be solidify the starting staff. People like to over-dramatize things. I don't think Sonny ever had an issue with Rocco specifically ... he's just really competitive and always wants the ball and I think that's all that was, imo. But folks here and elsewhere need their conspiracies. I think how he was handled in MN helped him to be successful and I think he knows and appreciates that. But ... who knows. Players are always going to speak positively, or at worst, neutrally, about teams they've been with when seeking a new deal. Whatever happens, in a Twins uni or another, I wish him well ... unless he's with another team in the AL central. 😉

[Linus]

“Sonny what do you think about returning to the Twins?  Um doubtful. It was nice but this is my only crack at free agency so I’m going to take the best deal I can get and I don’t think that offer will be from the Twins “. 
 

what the hell is the guy supposed to say?

[Dave Borton]

24 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

but at a reasonable price for a 2nd tier starter.

"Reasonable price" and "2nd tier starter" is an oxymoron. Pitchers are in such short supply, prices are going to be driven madly up. Everyone needs arms.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Correct. What else would Sonny Gray say at this time? Of course he should consider returning to the organization where he’s played his best stretch of baseball in his career. 

I wonder if it would help or hurt negotiations if he publicly said:

There's no ****ing way I'm returning to Minnesota. The People smell like lutefisk, they think putting the cheese inside a burger is genius. If they combine the beef with tator tots and cream of mushroom soup, they pretend it's not a casserole... it magically becomes hot dish. They take 30 minutes to say goodbye to someone even if they are just running to the Hy-Vee, they drill holes in the ice to catch fish small enough to fit through the hole, and let me just say that anyone who has to scrape ice off a car window in order to see where you are going is an idiot.    

I wonder how that would fly? 

 

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

I wonder if it would help or hurt negotiations if he publicly said:

There's no ****ing way I'm returning to Minnesota. The People smell like lutefisk, they think putting the cheese inside a burger is genius, now if they combine the beef with tator tots and cream of mushroom soup, they pretend it's not a casserole... it magically becomes hot dish. They take 30 minutes to say goodbye to someone even if they are just running to the Hy-Vee, they drill holes in the ice to catch fish small enough to fit through the hole, and let me just say that anyone who has to scrape ice off a car window in order to see where you are going is an idiot.    

I wonder how that would fly? 

 

His wife had an incident in a Target parking lot where she waved for the other car to go, and the other driver insisted she should go instead. Long story short, they’re still insisting that the other one should go 28 hours later. 

And that’s why they need to explore other areas in the country. 

[Squirrel]

12 minutes ago, Linus said:

“Sonny what do you think about returning to the Twins?  Um doubtful. It was nice but this is my only crack at free agency so I’m going to take the best deal I can get and I don’t think that offer will be from the Twins “. 
 

what the hell is the guy supposed to say?

Or ... 'Have loved it here and would love to return, but, this is my shot, and for me and my family I need to take the best offer, regardless who makes it.'

I mean, people think there is no truth behind what he says? That he hates it here and can't wait to leave, but is saying otherwise? He's being diplomatic but he could also be genuine at the same time. All he's saying, really, is, he liked it here, is open to staying, but will seek the best deal. And no one faults him for that, especially the Twins org. And of course there's more to it than money, but, money will be a huge factor. He's pitched well enough to get a really good offer, and he knows it. We know it, the Twins know it, and it's not likely we will win, and everyone knows it.

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

His wife had an incident in a Target parking lot where she waved for the other car to go, and the other driver insisted she should go instead. Long story short, they’re still insisting that the other one should go 28 hours later. 

And that’s why they need to explore other areas in the country. 

At 28 hours and one minute. She finally pulls into the parking space, walks into Target only to find that they don't sell Alcohol on Sundays. 

And she needs it bad... just to put up with everything. 

[USAFChief]

Make the qualifying offer.

But I'd let someone else give him 3 or 4 years. 

 

[chpettit19]

It is fascinating to see that people were convinced Sonny was leaving (was probably demanding a trade behind the scenes!) because he had 2 games in 2 seasons where he was visibly, and publicly, upset with being taken out when he was taken out, but then he says he's willing to stay and people say there's no way you can read into that and believe him. I'm not saying those groups of people are the same, but it's fascinating.

I don't think these statements should change the Twins plans with Sonny. Make the QO, and offer him 2 years with a 3rd year team option. I think that was likely always their plan, and still should be. If he takes your deal, great, if not enjoy your #35ish draft pick.

[CRF]

He's saying what he's expected to say...what any FA would say. Whether or not it's 100% truth doesn't even matter right now. He had a good season, and I wouldn't be surprised if he likes it here and wants to come back. The money/years will determine everything. I sure wouldn't over pay for him. 

[gil4]

25 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I wonder if it would help or hurt negotiations if he publicly said:

There's no ****ing way I'm returning to Minnesota. The People smell like lutefisk, they think putting the cheese inside a burger is genius. If they combine the beef with tator tots and cream of mushroom soup, they pretend it's not a casserole... it magically becomes hot dish. They take 30 minutes to say goodbye to someone even if they are just running to the Hy-Vee, they drill holes in the ice to catch fish small enough to fit through the hole, and let me just say that anyone who has to scrape ice off a car window in order to see where you are going is an idiot.    

I wonder how that would fly? 

 

Cheese inside a burger is genius. 

The rest of the stuff isn't too far off the mark. If he signs elsewhere we might half heartedly try to act like we hold it against him. If he stays the beef/tots/soup combo would become a bestseller at Target Field next year. They'd probably make him the face of the marketing campaign for it. 

[laloesch]

I'd keep him.  Sign him to 2-3 years.

A rotation of 

Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, Gray, Varland / Ober.  Is pretty darn good on paper.  Now all they need is more offensive pieces.

[Craig Arko]

41 minutes ago, Linus said:

“Sonny what do you think about returning to the Twins?  Um doubtful. It was nice but this is my only crack at free agency so I’m going to take the best deal I can get and I don’t think that offer will be from the Twins “. 
 

what the hell is the guy supposed to say?

‘Herschel’s gotta do what’s best for Herschel.’ Or maybe, ‘Straight cash, Homie.’

[Squirrel]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think these statements should change the Twins plans with Sonny. Make the QO, and offer him 2 years with a 3rd year team option. I think that was likely always their plan, and still should be. If he takes your deal, great, if not enjoy your #35ish draft pick.

I wonder, considering how some of these longer pitcher deals have worked, if others might be leery of going longer than three yrs with Gray. I mean, it might be 50-50 that we are able to work out a deal with him for the 2-3 yrs you mentioned. But pitching always goes higher because it's pitching.

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, gil4 said:

Cheese inside a burger is genius. 

The rest of the stuff isn't too far off the mark. If he signs elsewhere we might half heartedly try to act like we hold it against him. If he stays the beef/tots/soup combo would become a bestseller at Target Field next year. They'd probably make him the face of the marketing campaign for it. 

Gray Hot Dish is perfect. 

Everybody knows that the cream of mushroom soup... looks Gray after cooking.  

[2wins87]

Coming back on the QO would be great, though I doubt he takes it, it just doesn't make sense to limit himself.

After that, I don't really think the Twins will end up with a competitive offer, unless they agree to something more front-loaded in consideration of their payroll increases in 2025 and his potential drop-off as he ages.

[terrydactyls]

Just now, 2wins87 said:

Coming back on the QO would be great, though I doubt he takes it, it just doesn't make sense to limit himself.

After that, I don't really think the Twins will end up with a competitive offer, unless they agree to something more front-loaded in consideration of their payroll increases in 2025 and his potential drop-off as he ages.

Exactly!  A lot of people are saying that they would go for a 2-3 year contract with a team option after year 2.  I would offer him a front loaded 5 year deal with team options after years 2 through 4.  That would make the deal look better but wouldn't add any more risk than a 3 year contract with a team option after year 2.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I wonder, considering how some of these longer pitcher deals have worked, if others might be leery of going longer than three yrs with Gray. I mean, it might be 50-50 that we are able to work out a deal with him for the 2-3 yrs you mentioned. But pitching always goes higher because it's pitching.

I don't think there's going to be many, if any, teams willing to offer him 4 years guaranteed. I think his most reasonable ask is to try to get a 3rd guaranteed year with the 4th year option. I think he can get 3 years, 60ish mil from someone. Maybe a 12 mil option year for a 4th year tacked on. I don't expect him back with MN next year because I don't expect them to guarantee a 3rd year. Just not their style.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Gray and the Twins would both be stupid not to explore another contract.

Twins - You can never have too much quality pitchers (this year should prove that).  He is a known quantity and his pitching style should (theoretically) not drop off a cliff.

Gray - Pitched two of his best seasons in MN.  The Twins should be playoff contenders for the next few years.

Twins will offer him a QO, Gray will refuse and test the market.  I think the Twins should offer a market-value 2 year deal with 1-2 team options that become guaranteed with reasonable goals (140 IP, 20 starts, etc.).  If some other team overpays to get him... good luck for both.