Twins Name Bailey Ober Game 1 Starter for ALDS

[Matthew Taylor]

After two days of speculation of who would start game one of the American League Division Series, the Minnesota Twins made it official: Bailey Ober will be taking the mound in Houston on Saturday afternoon.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off of the Wild Card round sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays earlier this week, there was no clear answer on who would be the game one starter for the divisional round. Joe Ryan made the most logical sense at first, as he was the one slated to start a game three, should that have been necessary earlier this week. There was a growing sense, though, that due to Joe Ryan’s style, he might not be the best fit to pitch in Houston.

Joe Ryan is notably a fly ball pitcher, allowing nearly 50% of all batted balls to be launched into the air. As a result, Ryan was very home run prone this season, allowing 32 home runs in 29 appearances in 2023. In a ballpark like Houston, with the power alley to left field, a homer-prone pitcher like Ryan is a recipe for disaster.

Additionally, Joe Ryan has struggled mightily since his groin strain in Atlanta at the end of June. Since June 27, Ryan has a 6.62 ERA with 24 allowed home runs in 14 games. 

Going away from Ryan in Game 1 made a lot of sense.

Taking Joe Ryan out of the picture, Baldelli’s choices really came down to Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober. With Maeda now positioned into a hybrid-bullpen role, Ober just made the most sense.

Though he didn’t make the Opening Day roster, Bailey Ober has been a steady force for the Twins all season, tossing a 3.43 ERA. While Ober also allows his fair share of fly balls (49%), he has done a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark, allowing less than a home run per nine innings.

Ober is coming into game one on a bit of a roll, as he posted a 2.08 ERA in the month of September with 26 strikeouts compared to just three walks.

Game 1 will be Ober’s first ever postseason appearance, but he does have some experience against the Houston Astros, with a 4.50 ERA in 10 innings back in 2021.

How do you feel about Bailey Ober being named the Game 1 starter? Leave a comment below and start the conversation.

 

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[CRF]

I like this a lot better than having Ryan start. Hope Ober is up to the task. 

[chinmusic]

It's been quite the whirlwind season for Mr. Ober.

Pretty cool.  This could be the start of something big (and tall)!

[AlwaysinModeration]

100% behind this move.  I think it’s the right move.  Takes some cajones to pull the trigger on making the decision to do it, though.  He was  behind Ryan and Maeda in the pecking order to start the season.

[Puckett34]

Love Ryan, but this is the correct move I think.

[minman1982]

What a luxury to be able to pick between Ober, Maeda, and Ryan! The question is now does Ryan pitch Game 2 with Lopez/Gray doing Games 3 and 4? In my opinion, if they win Game 1, Ryan gets the nod for Game 2. If they lose Game 1, Lopez gets Game 2. 

[dex8425]

2 minutes ago, minman1982 said:

What a luxury to be able to pick between Ober, Maeda, and Ryan! The question is now does Ryan pitch Game 2 with Lopez/Gray doing Games 3 and 4? In my opinion, if they win Game 1, Ryan gets the nod for Game 2. If they lose Game 1, Lopez gets Game 2. 

No, Pablo can pitch game 2 and Sonny game 3 on regular rest. Then Pablo could throw a couple innings in game 5 if necessary. 

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

No, Pablo can pitch game 2 and Sonny game 3 on regular rest. Then Pablo could throw a couple innings in game 5 if necessary. 

Lopez can go on full rest in both games 2 (Sunday) and 5 (Friday).

[Trov]

I am all for this.  He makes so much sense over Ryan.  I talk about how Ryan should be game 3 in wild card round because of how well he pitched at home compared to the road.  Ober has earned this and I was worried about Ryan on road in a hitter park. Not that Ober will not give up a HR, but my guess they will have a quick hook for him and go to Maeda if need be. 

[MMMordabito]

Good for Ober! 

Love the move. Ryan should be pitching at Target Field as long as it's possible to line it up that way. I think he was #3 in WC for that reason and will be #4 in the ALDS for that reason.

[Patzky]

I like this and the failure to announce Game 2 starter means it's dependent upon our success with game 1. 

 

It could be Pablo if we lose.. but it could be Maeda if we win. 

[Unwinder]

Obviously doesn't tell the whole story, but Ober's ERA for the season is still 2nd best among Twins starters. I think he's earned this.

[Jocko87]

This was decided a week or more ago.  With the benefit of hindsight it makes perfect sense and Ober has been working on the Astros game plan for a week. 

Depth makes plans like this possible.

[Muppet]

I like this. He always seems to rise to the occasion and do his best when the pressure’s on. Probably fairly well rested after the slog of the first 70% of the season too. 

[JesusisLord7]

I like the decision but I would not let the Astros lineup see him more than once. Maybe two or three innings and then move onto Paddock or Maeda. We have a lot of depth with those extra starters and I'd keep them guessing and not get locked in. In fact I would say two innings and onto the next guy. 

[JesusisLord7]

Pablo Lopez will then be pitching on his normal four days rest for game 2

 

[USAFChief]

13 minutes ago, Patzky said:

I like this and the failure to announce Game 2 starter means it's dependent upon our success with game 1. 

 

It could be Pablo if we lose.. but it could be Maeda if we win. 

No. Crazy talk.

Why wouldn't you start Lopez?

[JD-TWINS]

29 minutes ago, minman1982 said:

What a luxury to be able to pick between Ober, Maeda, and Ryan! The question is now does Ryan pitch Game 2 with Lopez/Gray doing Games 3 and 4? In my opinion, if they win Game 1, Ryan gets the nod for Game 2. If they lose Game 1, Lopez gets Game 2. 

Gotta throw best guys on regular rest & not be concerned with first game outcome. This sets up for López for Game 2 & then to be available on regular rest for a potential Game 5.

Ryan’s spilts at home v. on the road are considerably different. Ryan will throw Game 4 in Minneapolis.

[Jocko87]

Lopez and Ryan announced as well.  First 3 are set. 

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, USAFChief said:

No. Crazy talk.

Why wouldn't you start Lopez?

Gotta start López in Game 2 so if necessary he’s available on regular rest for a Game 5.

There’s no game playing with holding guys back - not in a 5 game Series………step on their throat!!

[Patzky]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

No. Crazy talk.

Why wouldn't you start Lopez?

Additional day of rest. Of course if Maeda or Ryan comes in to relieve Ober things change. Paddack would be a good change of pace from Ober if Rocco was feeling feisty. 

[Patzky]

4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Lopez and Ryan announced as well.  First 3 are set. 

Guess the guesswork is done! 

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, Patzky said:

Guess the guesswork is done! 

Speculation is fun ... until there's no more to speculate about 🙂

[Patzky]

Let's do this!

[Shaitan]

7 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Lopez and Ryan announced as well.  First 3 are set. 

No Gray?

[Squirrel]

Just now, Shaitan said:

No Gray?

My guess is game 4 ... if needed 🙂

[ashbury]

I was hoping for Randy Dobnak in Game 1, Les Straker for Game 2, and then assuming we're up 2-0 in the series we close 'em out with a bullpen game.

[Shaitan]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I was hoping for Randy Dobnak in Game 1, Les Straker for Game 2, and then assuming we're up 2-0 in the series we close 'em out with a bullpen game.

What about Boof?

[IaBeanCounter]

16 minutes ago, JesusisLord7 said:

I like the decision but I would not let the Astros lineup see him more than once. Maybe two or three innings and then move onto Paddock or Maeda. We have a lot of depth with those extra starters and I'd keep them guessing and not get locked in. In fact I would say two innings and onto the next guy. 

This sounds what Toronto decided before game 2.  I am for this move in that Baily has performed well on the road against playoff teams:

LAD  6 IP, 1 ER

TB    5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 HR

Bal   7 IP, 0 ER

Milw 5 IP, 2 ER. 1 HR

 

 

[IaBeanCounter]

11 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

No Gray?

On the Twins/mlb site Gray is listed as the game 3 starter.