The Wild Card Series Should End the "Quick Hook" Baldelli Myth

[Peter Labuza]

In Game 2 of the Wild Card series, Minnesota Twins fans saw the "quick hook" of pulling a pitcher too early that many have been criticized Rocco Baldelli for throughout the 2021 and 2022 post-Covid and post-lockout seasons. The only problem? It wasn’t Baldelli doing it.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

In what will be an infamous decision, Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider pulled his starter, former Twins right-hander José Berrios at only 47 pitches in the top of the fourth inning after walking Twins Legend Royce Lewis to lead off the inning. Berrios had been, in the words of many, dealing. He had allowed three hits, but also recorded five strikeouts.

The decision would prove fatal. Lefty Yusei Kikuchi came into the game and induced ground ball after ground ball, but Max Kepler, Donovan Solano, and Carlos Correa put enough pepper on each to get on base and eventually put across two runs. Those runs would be the only runs scored during the whole ball game.

Meanwhile, both Twins starters found themselves in trouble in the fifth Inning. Pablo López had a runner on second with only one out, while Sonny Gray had runners on second and third with two outs.

Baldelli stuck with his starters, and both got out of their jams. 

Only after genuinely losing his stuff in the sixth did Baldelli finally pull López when it was clear he was reaching the end, with Louie Varland (and a major assist from Michael A. Taylor) to finish the inning. Gray was clearly gassed after five, and happily took the win he promised to his kids.

In fact, there was only a single quick hook in the whole series. Varland came into the sixth in Game 2 and Baldelli pulled him when it was clear he could not find the strike zone and the go ahead run at the plate. Fireman Caleb Thielbar worked it out by inducing a transformative double play.

Whether Schneider made the right decision with Berrios will be a point of major contention for baseball pundits and the entire country of Canada all offseason. Schneider's own players were even quick to criticize the decision, blaming the boogey man of “analytics.”

But “analytics” are also what led Baldelli to keep his pitchers in. And however anyone wants to read why Baldelli makes the decisions he does and how much the front office is managing those decisions, one thing was clear: there were no quick hooks this series.

The truth is Baldelli keeps his pitchers in as long as their stuff looks good and they can get productive outs. For some pitchers, that means a shorter leash. (see Archer, Chris, or Bundy, Dylan in 2022)

Five innings and 5 2/3 innings could be considered a pretty short leash.  But the playoffs are different. And only one team is now advancing to the Division Series. (Well two teams are advancing to the ALDS, but just one of the two teams that played at Target Field.)

If the playoff curse can end, so can the myth of Baldelli’s quick hook.  

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[old nurse]

The myth of the quick nook will continue as long as pitcher nibble. It has seemed that unless totally ineffective Baldelli lets the pitcher go for 100 pitches. If it is unlikely to Baldelli the pitcher isn’t going to complete the inning in under 100 pitches total for the game, they don’t get to start the inning. Yes, you should be able to find exceptions to that as very few can be that consistent

[Beast]

There is more to it than a stupid decision by Toronto’s manager.  That really has nothing to with Baldelli.

There is more to it than Lopez and Gray’s starts in this series.

There is no “myth.”  Who is complaining about it right now?  We have seen Baldelli pull pitchers at questionable times.  He’s not made those types of decisions lately, that I can recall.

Not sure what the article is driving at.  That Baldelli has never made any questionable calls?  That people have issues with decisions he’s previously made were wrong?  That everyone else is doing it, so it’s OK?

I think we just saw what can happen when a manager overanalyzes.  I think we saw Baldelli do that that multiple times in the series with pinch hits.  It just happened that the decisions didn’t come back into question because of a loss.  But, I would’ve  questioned if, for example, we lost a game or the series because Willy Castro struck out and grounded into a double play with the bases juiced in late inning situations, when it could have been Matt Wallner at the plate.   Or, if Jax blew the game to Guerrero or Bichette in the 8th where he could’ve used Duran.  Or, if Polanco committed a fourth costly error or misplay because Baldelli kept running him out there. 

Baldelli has done plenty of questionable things in his career.  He made plenty of questionable calls in that series.  Let’s be careful in crowning him because Lewis, Lopez, Gray, Correa and a nails bullpen carried him to one wild card series win against a Blue Jays team that looked lost.  He needs to show me more.

[Karbo]

I haven't been a big fan of Rocco so far, but I will admit he's done a pretty good job, especially in the 2nd half this year. Now how much credit goes to Rocco, and how much to the FO for putting together this roster? I don't know. Most people improve by doing their job for a while, and perhaps that is what is going on with Rocco. Of course, I'm sure the job is a lot easier when you have the players perform at the level you expect. I really liked the comment Rocco made after the game. Showed me some fire. Winning makes things look so much better, so I'll just keep hoping for more wins. Houston, here they come!

[TwinsDr2021]

I have never been a fan of Rocco, the pulling of Berrios does in fact seem like something Rocco would (might have)have done in the past, but I have seen growth in Rocco and don't seem him making decisions like that anymore. There is still plenty of growth left for him.

I will say this if you pull a pitcher that had been pitching as well as Berrios after a walk in the 4th you deserve to lose (and get fired).

[Trov]

I agreed with the Timberwolves owner on the broadcast that it was terrible decision to pull Berrios and you could tell the manager was going to do the moment he felt it was the best call.  However, Berrios was dealing.  His slurve was nasty, and all three hits were weak contact hits nothing was being hit hard, outside the line drive of Wallner for an out.  However, Berrios has been known to give up hard contact quickly and is a high HR guy.  We do not know if the move was the wrong move just because the guy that came in gave up the lead, for all we know Kepler and/or AK get big hits and then the manager gets second guessed for not bringing the lefty sooner.  

I still feel Toronto should have left Berrios out there, but happy we got the win.  I do not worry Rocco will pull either Lopez or Gray too early, but I do worry he might Ryan if Ryan is doing fine.  However, our pen sure looks like it is going well. 

[jccracraft]

Pulling Varland  might have been the best move Rocco has ever made. Varland did not look good in the series. I completely disagree with pulling our lefty bats in the 4th inning. They are our better hitters, and you knew Toronto would put in righty relievers.

[Karbo]

5 minutes ago, jccracraft said:

Pulling Varland  might have been the best move Rocco has ever made. Varland did not look good in the series. I completely disagree with pulling our lefty bats in the 4th inning. They are our better hitters, and you knew Toronto would put in righty relievers.

I can understand subbing in Solano for AK as Ak hasn't looked good so far. 

[saviking]

All I know is that was ine hell of a gutsy performance by Gray. That guy is a true warrior..

[Blyleven2011]

I too have never been a Rocco follower and one reason is I see no fire in him ...

But his post game interview sure showed differently and his fire was encouraging  ...

He needs to always show that fire to inspire his players , I have to admit  I got goose bumps from his post game comment's  ...

[Blyleven2011]

2 minutes ago, saviking said:

All I know is that was ine hell of a gutsy performance by Gray. That guy is a true warrior..

Gutsy play of Gray and Correa on the pickoff  , that kept the momentum on the Twins side  ... 

It was awesome  ...

[HoskenPowell]

Pulling Berrios should cost someone their job......Whether the manager did it on his own or he's simply the puppet for the front office.

That was one of the WORST decisions I've ever seen in playoff baseball......Buck Martinez had it nailed dead center.   Berrios was pitching very , VERY well.  

But I guess as a Twins fan it worked out well !!!!!!     

Hoping for the best for the Twins.....Polanco could not be any worse in the field and should be better at the plate.   Jeffers really didn't contribute nor did Kepler or Wallner.  Let's hope they get with it.

Taylors out played Buxton all year basically and his defense should entitle him to a gold glove award.

Go Twins.

[Brandon27]

Jose was thinking to himself I should have stayed 

[Linus]

Couple thoughts here. Managing now is not like before analytics. Don’t think for a second that plan wasn’t developed by the FO. Schneider just executed the plan (which I disagree with). 
I like Rocco. One reason why I don’t mind him is because most of the stuff he gets criticized for is dictated by the FO or his players. For example Sonny wants to pitch deeper in games and makes that clear which kicks off another round of criticism of Rocco. Here is the most important point: Sonny usually needs close to 90 pitches to get through the fifth. That’s the issue not Rocco. Pinch hitting: the FO has developed this strategy so whether any of us including Rocco like it, it’s gonna happen. Rocco seems like a smart guy who is learning and his players like playing for him. I’m good with that partially because I don’t believe in the fire in the belly BS. 

[Twins GFP]

Twins pitchers as a team in all of MLB:
6th best ERA
3rd best ERA+
Lead all of MLB in team SO 
3rd best FIP
4th best in walks allowed
6th best in hits allowed

Yet people still look for ways to complain about how he (Rocco) handled his pitching staff this year. 

Amazing.
 

[farmerguychris]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I too have never been a Rocco follower and one reason is I see no fire in him ...

But his post game interview sure showed differently and his fire was encouraging  ...

He needs to always show that fire to inspire his players , I have to admit  I got goose bumps from his post game comment's  ...

I have a feeling that 'fire' is shown to his team on a regular basis.  We in the fan section just don't get to see it.

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I haven't been a big fan of Rocco so far, but I will admit he's done a pretty good job, especially in the 2nd half this year. Now how much credit goes to Rocco, and how much to the FO for putting together this roster? I don't know. Most people improve by doing their job for a while, and perhaps that is what is going on with Rocco. Of course, I'm sure the job is a lot easier when you have the players perform at the level you expect. I really liked the comment Rocco made after the game. Showed me some fire. Winning makes things look so much better, so I'll just keep hoping for more wins. Houston, here they come!

I like your comments about Rocco.  My add on is this.  First, it was MORONIC pulling Berrios.  Pure and simple.  I appreciate the advanced statistics, etc.; but managers and front offices can not go 100% with their brains.  They have to trust their eyes and inject their heart into the equation.  The players are humans, not robots.  Their performances can vary wildly.  In this case, Berrios looked nearly unhittable.  Someone in Toronto should lose their job for that decision.

[Kevin H]

My theory is it is less about Jose and more about they wanted Twins to pinch hit for Wallner, kirilloff, Julien early in the game so they aren't available against righties in late innings. Basically trying to take advantage of Rocco's penchant for platooning. Platooning only works once then you have an empty bench.

[BsuNemo]

I'll talk out of both side of my mouth here - first, pulling Berrios was wrong.  It is the prime example of having an analytics driven machine run the game for a team without the ability to read the situation and adapt.  Berrios was on fire and you play the hot hand but.....that move did not cost them the game and it put the Twins in situations later in the game that very well might have cost us more runs.  The thought was the Twins would lose bench options and their best lineup early in the game if they brought in Kikuchi and that is EXACTLY and PREDICTABLY what happened.  The Twins score 2 runs and struggled to make any hard contact all night and had Castro up in big situations that Wallner would've been better suited for.  Toronto fans can arguably point to two other situations that cost them the game just as much as pulling Berrios...the pickoff at 2nd and the bases loaded double play off a pitcher that didn't have any all season.  I'm not even sure what I'm saying but I do know...I hate analytics driven baseball that doesn't have any space for the feel of the game.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, jccracraft said:

 I completely disagree with pulling our lefty bats in the 4th inning. They are our better hitters, and you knew Toronto would put in righty relievers.

Yet both players brought in contributed to scoring the two runs. I think the moves proved to be correct this time.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Don’t think for a second that plan wasn’t developed by the FO. Schneider just executed the plan (which I disagree with). 

This could very well be, but no matter what the plan was or how it was agreed on Schneider was more than just a pawn. A manager has veto power. He could have left Berrios in there if he thought it was the way to go in that situation. I suppose the FO could have fired him for insubordination right after the game (or I suppose even during the game) but it's still ultimately the manager's call.

[Nine of twelve]

This demonstrates that the "quick hook" phenomenon permeates MLB. It may not be the philosophy of every team but it's certainly not just the Twins or Baldelli. Dave Cash of the Rays got a lot of heat in a recent postseason for doing the exact same thing, making a relatively early pull of a starter who was pitching well. My opinion is that this is probably the correct philosophy over the course of a regular season, and that by doing things this way it will average out to be beneficial provided that a reliable bullpen is available. But in the postseason a manager has to have much more of a "here and now" viewpoint and go with what is working at that moment.

[shabbos1]

Pulling Berrios was a tactless front office strategy where they were trying to play 3d chess by goading Rocco into emptying the bench in the 4th.  You could almost tell by Schneider's body language that he didn't want to do it, but that was the plan set out days before the game was even played.  

[Minny505]

In all of sports, anytime you make the decision that the opposing team wants you to make you are setting yourself up for failure.

As a Twins fan, all I want is for Berrios's day to be over so we can get some runs on the board.

The craziest part is that if Schneider doesn't pull Berrios there, he probably gets fired for giving the FO the finger. By pulling Berrios the Blue Birds lose and he keeps his job. 

I love the analytics side of baseball. It's part of why I love this sport more than any of the others. And it should be every team's guiding light for most decisions. You end up like the Royals or the Rockies if you ignore it. 

But when a pitcher is dealing, the uniformed manager has to be given some autonomy to change that plan. Until then, that manager will continue to be the media shield for bad and inflexible, authoritarian FO decision-making.

[Daniel Anderson]

I think the Rocco quick hook narrative is probably from the 2020 playoffs. In game one Maeda gave up 2 hits and no runs through 5 innings, had thrown 91 pitches and was pulled; Romo ended up with the loss. In game 2 Berrios gave up 1 run on 2 hits through 5 innings and was pulled after 75 pitches; Stashak ended up getting the loss. Neither of those moves seems anywhere near as outrageous as yesterday's BJ debacle, but I remember both of those guys really throwing well and that the Twins bullpen was running on fumes at the end of the year.

[Sjoski]

I had to step away from the game in the top of the 4th, Came back to see Berrios pitching left-handed!!!!! What?

Could not believe it, I just assume he was injured. Everything going Twins way, hope this trend continues.

 

[Road trip]

The decision to pull Berrios was a very poor one, but didn't cost Toronto the game.  If you had told Schneider before the game "Do this and you will hold the Twins to 2 total runs", I suspect he would take that bargain.  I certainly wouldn't have felt good about the Twins chances if I had known they were only going to score 2.

Hitting and base running (and a little bad luck in terms of where their hard-hit balls went) cost Toronto any chance to win.  When you score zero you will lose every single time.  Jays players can understandably grumble about the decision, but the offense scored 1 run the entire series.  That won't work.

 

 

[Schmoeman5]

Still not a big Rocco fan or the use analytics 100% of the time. Most of the moves he made in the playoffs were similar to moves he made during the regular season. The difference is instead of calling on guys like Floro, Winder, Lopez, Headricks Sands and Morans. He now has Stewart Maeda Jax Duran or is it dooo rahn? Varland Pagan Thielbar Paddock and Fundeburk. If Rocco has all these guys all year. The Twins might've won 100 games. Where he was praying before with fingers crossed and rubbing rabbits feet he now has weapons WAY MORE reliable. I guess they had a plan all along by standing pat as to the bullpen needs.

[Riverbrian]

Rocco's management style while unique isn't that far off in how the other 29 managers do it. 

The Blue Jays pulling Berrios was pre-planned and also somewhat predictable. 

[Johnny Ringo]

As far as we fans know, it is difficult to understand the context under which Rocco manages. How much is dictated from the FO? Let's face it. We don't know.  I love Paul Molitor. Amongst other things, I would give a month's pay for him to replace Gladden on the radio. But he is a cautionary tale of ignoring the bosses.  

These two games were managed perfectly.

Let's just enjoy it.