Embarrassment of Pitches: Twins Have Arms to Carry Them in October

[Nick Nelson]

The quality and depth of Minnesota's rotation this year gives them an advantage heading into the playoffs that few teams have ever enjoyed. And I'm not just talking about Twins teams. 

Rarely will you ever see a playoff-bound club this loaded with high-end starting pitching.

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone, Ken Blaze, Matt Blewett, Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

 

It's a common trope that pitching wins in the MLB playoffs. (Much like in football, defense wins champions.)

The truth is that pitching helps, of course, but it's only half the battle. You've got to score runs to have a chance, as the Twins have learned the hard way numerous times – including their most recent postseason trip, in which they scored one run in each of their two losses against Houston.

The Twins have reason to feel good about their playoff offense this year, especially if they can get Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis back. They've got even more reason to feel good about their pitching, thanks to a four-deep stable of high-quality starters who've all pitched at an All-Star level when healthy.

Much has rightfully been made of the leading duo, Pablo López and Sonny Gray, who were on actual All-Stars in July and have both been pitching like bona fide aces ever since. No matter what stat or metric you want to use, these two have both been among the league's best starting pitchers this season. For example, Gray leads the AL in fWAR and López ranks sixth. Both are among the top 10 in ERA.

These are elite, ace-caliber pitchers, and whichever team faces the Twins will need to win a game started by at least one of them. A tall order. 

There are some other playoff teams with impressive two-headed monsters in the rotation, though. Seattle has Luis Castillo and George Kirby. Toronto has Kevin Gausman and José Berríos. 

What really differentiates the Twins is their rotation prowess beyond their top two. Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda might look on the surface like fairly standard No. 3 and No. 4 starter types on a playoff team, based on their aggregate numbers. However, I think we can fairly say their aggregate numbers do not tell the full story. 

On the season, Ryan is 11-10 with a 4.31 ERA in 28 starts. Nothing special, pretty much the epitome of an average starter.

However, as fans who've been following the team all year know, Ryan revealed in early August that he'd been pitching through a groin injury, which he says first flared up weeks earlier ahead of a (brutal) start in Atlanta. He went on the injured list for about three weeks and returned near the end of August.

Prior to the Atlanta start, Ryan was 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA and eight homers allowed in 15 starts. Since returning from the IL, he's 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and four homers allowed in six starts. In between, while ostensibly being bothered by the injury, he was 1-4 with an 8.63 ERA and 17 home runs allowed in seven starts.

Now I recognize it is often convenient for players to pin their struggles on a supposed injury in hindsight. But here, the explanation really checks out. Ryan was a radically different pitcher during the time he admittedly hid a physical issue from the team, and it shows clearly in the numbers. The home run totals are most conspicuous; Ryan gave up multiple homers five times during that seven-game span, and has done so only twice in his other 21 starts.

If the real Joe Ryan is the one we saw during his 21 healthy starts – during which he posted a 3.16 ERA, 10.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 with 12 home runs allowed in 124 innings – that's a legitimate frontline starter, and easily the best No. 3 any team could hope to boast this October, statistically.

Despite all this, Ryan has hardly been viewed as a lock as Minnesota's third playoff starter ... because Maeda has been making such a strong case.

Maeda was, of course, Minnesota's Game 1 starter last time they reached the playoffs, fresh off a Cy Young runner-up season. He came through brilliantly on that occasion, tossing five shutout innings against the Astros. 

It's been a long road since then. Maeda battled elbow soreness in 2021, underwent Tommy John surgery, missed all of 2022, and returned this year with a rough landing in April. Coming off an 18-month hiatus, Maeda's arm clearly wasn't quite ready for the rigors of live action. The Twins shut him down for a few weeks, brought him back in late June, and he's been a different pitcher ever since.

In 16 starts since coming off the IL, Maeda is 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Again, that's frontline starter material, and not dissimilar to the type of performance we saw from the veteran right-hander in 2020. Any other year in history the Twins would be thrilled to start a guy like this in almost any playoff game – now the rotation is so strong one-through-three that Maeda is being prepped as a reliever, ready to provide multiple quality innings on call. (At least in the first round.)

It's easy to feel confident in him for that role, given that Maeda has fulfilled it effectively in several postseasons past with the Dodgers. But it'd also be easy to feel confident in him as a third or fourth starter, and the Twins might need Maeda in that capacity if they advance.

That's what is really exciting about the opportunity in front of this team. The Twins have a favorable situation in the ALWC round, where they can deploy those four – in front of a bullpen that's growing more formidable through season-ending additions – across three games at home. Once you get past the first round (novel concept, I know), Minnesota's rotation depth becomes a much more decisive competitive edge. If they want to, they can even add Bailey Ober, whose 3.66 ERA in 132 innings would make him a clear-cut No. 3 or even No. 2 starter on most playoff staffs.

Starting pitching is without question the signature strength that propelled Minnesota to the playoffs this year, leading the American League in fWAR and ranking second in ERA. This strength offers the best reason to think they can not only snap their losing streak but make a fairly deep run. 

You just don't find playoff teams with this many starting pitching weapons very often. As the playoffs arrive, they're all clicking.

 

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[Trov]

If we do not win at least 1 of the first 2 games, the starting pitching depth will mean nothing.  As pointed out, we will be facing most likely a strong duo as well, against guys that could match our top 2 pitch for pitch.  It is unlikely we will face Toronto, so one of either Texas, Houston, or Seattle.  I hope we can win 2 and worry about who starts games 1 and 2 in round, but anything can happen in a single baseball game, and we have shown our offense turtles when in the playoffs.  

[Karbo]

Unfortunately the games are not played on paper. I like the Twins chances to at least break "the streak" and possibly win the series. The key to me is if Lewis can play. I'm pretty sure Correa will but how well he can will depend on his feet.

[Linus]

This rotation is historically strong. It likely means we will be in every game and might even steal one of Lopez twirls a gem. We will see if we can score some runs. I also think it will be interesting to watch our new bullpen and how guys like Varland and Paddack are used compared to Jax and Pagan. 

[Nine of twelve]

40 minutes ago, Trov said:

It is unlikely we will face Toronto, so one of either Texas, Houston, or Seattle.

As of right now Toronto is more likely than Texas. If Toronto hits a snag this week they could easily be our first round opponent.

[Unwinder]

Got some real downers in the comment section already. We're just guessing what's going to happen, it's fine to be wrong.

[roger]

Have no interest in speculating who the Twins will be playing.  The good news is that they will be playing and at home for all two or three games.

With all the talk about starters, I will be eagerly waiting to see how Paddack does this week.  Understand they want to get him into Tueday's game.  Then expect he will come back on the weekend.  Was impressed with his interview during the rain delay yesterday.  Sure seems like a sharp young man who will be a big part of this staff the rest of 2023 and the coming years.

I know this piece Nick was about the playoffs.  But I really want to see the Twins figure out how to bring Gray and/or Maeda back in 2024.  Let's keep the gang together.

[rv78]

Starters are only 1/3 of the picture. Gray and Lopez can match up with anyone if they are on their game. The hitters must come through and that means the youngsters that fueled the offense the 2nd half of the season must be allowed to play and not choke due to the pressure.The bullpen also must perform at its highest level and they have been hit or miss at best. All 3 need to click if they want to advance to round 2.

[JD-TWINS]

Have 5 good arms……Maeda’s experience makes me want to lean toward him for game 3. Good note from someone yesterday showing Ryan’s very positive splits at home & Maeda’s success on the road. Sure sounds like organization has made the decision & Maeda is in the Pen.

Paddack worries me - he needs to get on the mound soon to see where he’s at with his head & command.

I like keeping Funderburk in Pen for spot uses v. lefty batters.

Kuechel will probably get a start on the weekend in Colorado but I think he’s done after that point.

Looks like Twins are leaning toward a Pen consisting of these guys:

Jax - Pagan - Paddack - Duran - Thielbar - Maeda - Varland - (Funderburk &/or Stewart)

Could only roster 3 starters for WC & carry 11 or 12 pitchers……..14 or 15 bats?

How the guys pitch remains to be seen & it could be good or bad………however, I don’t think anybody in the Post-Season has a better 8 or 9 guys in their Pen!

CC - Lewis - Castro - Buxton need to get healthy this week.

[Woof Bronzer]

an advantage heading into the playoffs that few teams have ever enjoyed. And I'm not just talking about Twins teams. 

The only team the Twins will have a clear starting pitching advantage over is Texas, and they're so hot it's looking increasingly unlikely that we face them.  Implying that the Twins top 2 is one of the biggest advantages in the 120 year history of the playoffs is just hilarious.  Hawt take culture is alive and well!

Here on planet earth, starting pitching is definitely the Twins strength.  Bullpen is one of, if not the primary, weakness. However, no Twins starter has ever gone more than 5 IP in a playoff start under the Falvine regime.  I'm already seeing articles on TD on how long the pitchers are going to pitch.  If the Twins are going to yank their starters after 4 or 5 irrespective of actual performance, they are neutralizing their strength in order to lean into their weakness, and they will lose both games just like they lost G1 in 2019 when they yanked Berrios after 4 in order to pitch legendary reliever Zach Littel.  If the Twins actually want to win a series they are going to need their starters to go deep.  Otherwise any "advantage" we have will be meaningless.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Before the season started, I was very excited about the potential of the Twins starting pitching.  However, as a long-time Twins fan, I figured something would come along to mess it up.  Surely injuries and unexplainable ineffectiveness would plague the team.  Injuries came along and took out Tyler Mahle, but Ober stepped right in.  Ineffectiveness came along and messed with Maeda’s season, but somehow, that storm was weathered as well.  Then, we had Joe Ryan’s injury, but they found a way through this also.  All of this is to say, the usual bad stuff didn’t really happen to the Twins (collectively) and the pitching came through the season as it seems like that should have on paper before the season started.  

Having five pitchers of this caliber is totally unheard of for the Twins.  Joe Ryan and Kenya Maeda’s stats aren’t sexy on paper, but as noted, if you look at what they have been capable of when pitching well, the staff is impressive compared to the league, and in fact unheard of for a Twins team.  I’m not predicting that they are an unstoppable force, but in 1991 the WS championship team basically had three good pitchers — Kevin Tapani, who was outstanding and probably had the best season; Jack Morris, who was more solid than awesome during the season but definitely had the bulldog mentality; and Scott Erickson, who was unhittable early in the season and won 20 games but was decidedly gassed by the time the playoffs hit.  The others got the job done but were nothing amazing.  Lopez and Gray easily measure up to Tapani and Morris, while Erickson’s end of the year potential is probably matched or exceeded by Ober.  That leaves two pitchers who have pitched like all-stars at times in Maeda and Ryan.  To say they clear the bar set by Allan Anderson and David West would be quite the understatement.  @Nick Nelson, an embarrassment of riches indeed!

I don’t know where this leads, but for the first time in a long time, I feel like we can really be competitive in the playoffs.  Let’s end the losing streak, win a series, and see where this all can lead. 

[Yawn Gardenhose]

Counterpoint: The 2018 Guardians made history by having 4 starters with 200+ strikeouts. Only team to have ever done that.

They didn't win a game in the playoffs and pitched to a 7.20 ERA in those three playoff games.

[Road trip]

Agree with Woof Bronzer.  Great starters, but arguably the least reliable bullpen north of Arlington.  Maybe Maeda will strengthen the pen.  Maybe Varland will be great in his new role.  But I can't head into the postseason confident that the Twins bullpen can consistently pitch 4 good innings, especially if it is the Pagan & Jax show for a good hunk of it.  If starters are going to be pulled after 5 innings...  well, hopefully the Twins offense continues to score..

[mikelink45]

Let me take an optimistic view.  With the multiple rounds in the playoffs they might need five starters if they are going all the way.  Pitching an Ace three times in the WS has worked for decades, but now we add the wildcards and division series and we do not want to burn out the SP.  Which one do we hold in reserve?

[jmlease1]

Really good year for Twins starting pitching and a fantastic change from previous years where we were throwing out a lot of guys to cover innings that were really contingent on them doing things they hadn't done before to be successful. Unsurprisingly, a lot of times they weren't. 

Health-wise the starters have been pretty good, with the exception of losing Mahle early. Ryan and Maeda missed some time, Ober was shut down to save his arm, but there's generally been good health and that's really great. Only 22 starts this season were made by pitchers not named Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober...and 10 of those 22 were given to Louis Varland, a quality prospect, and 5 went to Mahle who pitched as hoped before his elbow exploded. they have 5 starters this season who have at least 20 starts and all of them have an ERA+ of 100 or more.

Compare that to last season when the Twins gave 65 starts to the law firm of Bundy, Archer, and Winder and none of them had an ERA+ over 90. They gave 45 starts to pitchers outside of their top 5 starters. It really matters when you don't give innings to poor pitchers.

Starting depth doesn't guarantee wins in the playoffs, but at the same time we're also not hoping Randy Dobnak can start game one of playoff series any longer either. We can move arms like Varland and possibly Maeda into the bullpen to give us more strength there and Varland's late season move has paid dividends: in 10 1/3 IP as a reliever he's got 14 Ks, the WHIP is great, and he's been efficient, averaging less than 15 pitches per innings.

Twins will need some health from the lineup to win in the playoffs, but starting pitching should give anyone hope, and the depth reinforcing the bullpen absolutely makes a difference.

[Blyleven2011]

23 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

 I'd hate to be Gray or Lopez (whichever does not start game 1) IF we lose game 1 because the pressure to not at least get the playoff loss monkey off of our backs will be enormous.

Lopez will start game 1 and gray will follow , I like Gray as the competitor he is to start game 2  ...

It hasn't been the best ride for us Twins fans especially in the first half , the starters have definitely been solid and kept us in the games all year ( pitching wins , exce  ....

Lineup Getting better in the second half and playing good ball before the playoffs is a good recipe for success  ...

[D.C Twins]

Kudos Nick.... my vote for Best Article Title of the Year!

[D.C Twins]

Agree with analysis. BUT....

One need look no further than Gray's 8-8 record and most recent 1-0 loss (TO THE ANGLES) to understand how much the Twins line up can sabotage great pitching.

The health and productivity of Lewis will determine how far we go in the playoffs and is the biggest wildcard. 

(an article breaking down Twins offensive numbers and record with Lewis in and out of the lineup would be VERY interesting)

Fingers crossed! 

[Blyleven2011]

17 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Really good year for Twins starting pitching   . 

 Only 22 starts this season were made by pitchers not named Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober...and 10 of those 22 were given to Louis Varland, a quality prospect, and 5 to mahle  .

they have 5 starters this season who have at least 20 starts and all of them have an ERA+ of 100 or more.

Compare that to last season when the Twins gave 65 starts to the law firm of Bundy, Archer, and Winder .

I concur our starting pitchers have been our key to our success  ...

I might need a lawyer some day , do you have the number of the law firm , Bundy  - Archer  and Winder  you mentioned ...

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, Yawn Gardenhose said:

Counterpoint: The 2018 Guardians made history by having 4 starters with 200+ strikeouts. Only team to have ever done that.

They didn't win a game in the playoffs and pitched to a 7.20 ERA in those three playoff games.

[Linus]

As noted above it will be very interesting to see how far they let the starters go. The rotation is this team’s greatest strength and the bullpen its biggest weakness. I hope they have faith in the starters. 

[Karbo]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Have no interest in speculating who the Twins will be playing.  The good news is that they will be playing and at home for all two or three games.

With all the talk about starters, I will be eagerly waiting to see how Paddack does this week.  Understand they want to get him into Tueday's game.  Then expect he will come back on the weekend.  Was impressed with his interview during the rain delay yesterday.  Sure seems like a sharp young man who will be a big part of this staff the rest of 2023 and the coming years.

I know this piece Nick was about the playoffs.  But I really want to see the Twins figure out how to bring Gray and/or Maeda back in 2024.  Let's keep the gang together.

I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see them able to keep both. I feel there is a decent chance we keep Maeda, but I think they lose Gray. I hope they give him the qualifying offer, but I think he'd like to be somewhere else.

[jimbo92107]

Chris Paddack's first few relief appearances could be both quite revealing and quite useful. At a minimum, his innings will let worn-down Griffin Jax rest up for the playoffs. At best, Paddack will show us some of the great arm that made him a star early in his career. 

As for Emilio Pagan...eh. I know he's been pitching great for a while now. But...eh. Emotional scars from the Pagan Sacrifice...eh. Will TD fans ever really trust him? One way to find out - use him a lot in the last few regular games! Let him close for Duran. Pitch him multiple innings. Use  him!

[jimbo92107]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see them able to keep both. I feel there is a decent chance we keep Maeda, but I think they lose Gray. I hope they give him the qualifying offer, but I think he'd like to be somewhere else.

This depends heavily on what the team does in the playoffs. If they get killed in the first series, Gray will want to bail. If they fight through a couple rounds, he might want to stay. 

[jorgenswest]

Just now, jimbo92107 said:

This depends heavily on what the team does in the playoffs. If they get killed in the first series, Gray will want to bail. If they fight through a couple rounds, he might want to stay. 

His family is a priority to him. This is his last big contract. The balance of dollars and family will guide the decision much more so than a few games in October.

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see them able to keep both. I feel there is a decent chance we keep Maeda, but I think they lose Gray. I hope they give him the qualifying offer, but I think he'd like to be somewhere else.

They are 100% going to make Sonny Gray the QO, and will be thrilled if he takes it. (spoiler alert: he's not going to take it)

I'm also baffled by the presumption that Gray wants to leave. If it's because he's complained about being pulled from a game and/or said he wants to pitch deeper into games, I'll wager you all the money in my pockets against all the money in yours that if he goes somewhere else he'll say something very very similar to what he's been saying the past 2 seasons with the Twins. 

Sonny Gray basically never wants to come out, will almost always think he can go one more inning, get one more hitter, whatever. (and I like that about him! it's not a knock) He's also never been, basically his whole career, a guy who goes 7+ innings all the time. He hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season since he was 25. he's got some tough numbers that 3rd time through the order.

He has had one of his best seasons as a professional this year, and set himself up for a very nice free agent contract. If he doesn't come back for the Twins it's going to be because he's getting a deal for more years and/or more money than the Twins are willing to go on him, not because he doesn't "like it" here.

I expect Gray to get at least one 4-year contract offer for an AAV of $20M per season. Twins would bring him back on a 1 year deal, a 2 year deal, and maybe even a 3 (though I'm sure they'll start to get itchy about paying a pitcher $20M in year 3 at 36...), but they seem very unlikely to go 4 or 5. And someone who needs pitching will probably throw a 4+ year deal at him. Maybe he wouldn't be interested in going back to NYC (though being a Met is different than being with the Yankees), but they're not the only team that could toss that kind of money at Gray.

[Nick Nelson]

8 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

 Implying that the Twins top 2 is one of the biggest advantages in the 120 year history of the playoffs is just hilarious.  Hawt take culture is alive and well!

I didn't say or imply that? I said that the sum total of the Twins' rotation – 5 different pitchers who are healthy, and have essentially pitched like frontline starters all season when healthy – is a rare asset for the playoffs. I find the rotation's quality beyond the top 2 to be what differentiates them and literally said exactly those words in the article. 

[DocBauer]

10 hours ago, roger said:

Have no interest in speculating who the Twins will be playing.  The good news is that they will be playing and at home for all two or three games.

With all the talk about starters, I will be eagerly waiting to see how Paddack does this week.  Understand they want to get him into Tueday's game.  Then expect he will come back on the weekend.  Was impressed with his interview during the rain delay yesterday.  Sure seems like a sharp young man who will be a big part of this staff the rest of 2023 and the coming years.

I know this piece Nick was about the playoffs.  But I really want to see the Twins figure out how to bring Gray and/or Maeda back in 2024.  Let's keep the gang together.

 

Roger, I appreciate your thoughts as I too balance the NOW, while also looking at the future. Guess most of us have that amateur GM in our heads that doesn't turn off, LOL.

Gray will get the QO, we all know that. Is it possible he accepts it? Doubtful, but we have no idea how this offseason is going to go for the market as a whole. As good as Gray is, and has been, even coming off one of his best seasons, he's usually never been a 180 IP, 30 GS guy. And he'll be 34yo in November. Still, I just can't see him not getting at least a 2yr offer, if not 3yr, from SOMEONE, for around $20M per. I think the Twins would be ecstatic if he accepted the 1yr QO, but I don't see it. They MIGHT be interested in a 2yr or 1+1, but I can't see them wanting to pay him for an age 36 season.

On the other hand, Maeda is already 35yo and will be 36 come April. And he's a notch below Gray I think we can all agree. But with his rebuilt elbow, and time to get stronger after a rough start to this season, he's been very good. And he's super smart, throwing as hard as he has pre-surgery, and his game as never been about pure velocity. And the cost to bring him back shouldn't be that high. It could be a 1yr, or 1+1, or a straight 2yr for around $12-14M per, possibly with some incentives as part of any said deal. I'd take that kind of a deal for him, and I think the Twins will look hard at something like that. 

Maeda doesn't replace Gray at the top of the rotation. But maybe Ryan does with growth? Ober may have tired a bit at the end of the season...blowing past his previous IP high...but has still been good and has room to grow as well. Varland has shown how good he can be, is still pretty young, and has some nice potential. And, oh yeah, we get Paddack back next year as well, seemingly 100% and read to go, though he might have an IP concern his first year post surgery.

The system is deep enough, talented enough...especially with no assets sent out at the deadline this year...that I can see the Twins moving on and looking for another Gray or Lopez kind of deal for 2024. And I think they could do so without major repercussions to the roster or milb depth.

I do believe they need to add an arm. The question is keeping Gray or Maeda, or looking for a trade target they really like. I don't think they'll look for a major FA addition, but who knows. They've surprised us before.

[DocBauer]

I have to object to the idea the Twins are approaching the playoffs with a poor pen. Right now, they are probably going with 8 arms which would include: Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, Pagan, Maeda, Varland, and one of Paddack or Funderburk. That looks pretty good to me. 

They are deep enough to place a #3 SP like Maeda in their pen for now. Varland, their #6 SP, and part of next season's probable rotation, and Paddack, looking strong and also part of 2024, are filing temporary roles with great stuff. Jax had a bizarre start to his season, has looked a bit tired and over used as of late....but not terrible...and was borderline outstanding for the middle months/bulk of the year. Stewart looks to be back. Forget 2022 PTSD, other than a couple of blow ups, Pagan has simply been a different pitcher this year. My goodness, they are probably keeping the best #5 SP in all of MLB off the 1st round roster in Ober. 

And with an extra arm currently, the Twins are trying to rest everyone as much as possible to keep the pen arms rested but ready.

Can this rotation, or bullpen, simply implode? Yep. Absolutely. But so can be said for every other team in the playoffs. It's a new, different, and shorter season. You report to me that any FO/team reports that they KNOW that their offense won't sputter, and all of their arms are just going to dominate, I'd show you a liar with false bravado.

No clue what's going to happen. Nobody does. But the arms the Twins are carrying in to the playoffs is damn talented with the potential to be very good. And that includes the re-worked pen.

 

[Fatbat]

Great article. We got some nice pitchers (finally) after years of having less than anything close a complete roster of decent hurlers. The real question is the oddity of how hitting a round object with another round object seemed so much easier after the allstar break vs. before it.