Embarrassment of Pitches: Twins Have Arms to Carry Them in October

[wabene]

12 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

They are 100% going to make Sonny Gray the QO, and will be thrilled if he takes it. (spoiler alert: he's not going to take it)

I'm also baffled by the presumption that Gray wants to leave. If it's because he's complained about being pulled from a game and/or said he wants to pitch deeper into games, I'll wager you all the money in my pockets against all the money in yours that if he goes somewhere else he'll say something very very similar to what he's been saying the past 2 seasons with the Twins. 

Sonny Gray basically never wants to come out, will almost always think he can go one more inning, get one more hitter, whatever. (and I like that about him! it's not a knock) He's also never been, basically his whole career, a guy who goes 7+ innings all the time. He hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season since he was 25. he's got some tough numbers that 3rd time through the order.

He has had one of his best seasons as a professional this year, and set himself up for a very nice free agent contract. If he doesn't come back for the Twins it's going to be because he's getting a deal for more years and/or more money than the Twins are willing to go on him, not because he doesn't "like it" here.

I expect Gray to get at least one 4-year contract offer for an AAV of $20M per season. Twins would bring him back on a 1 year deal, a 2 year deal, and maybe even a 3 (though I'm sure they'll start to get itchy about paying a pitcher $20M in year 3 at 36...), but they seem very unlikely to go 4 or 5. And someone who needs pitching will probably throw a 4+ year deal at him. Maybe he wouldn't be interested in going back to NYC (though being a Met is different than being with the Yankees), but they're not the only team that could toss that kind of money at Gray.

I agree with almost all of this. The narrative that Gray wants to leave is unfounded and something I've been pushing back against since the beginning. I would, and have, argued that he is very happy with and appreciative of the Twins for guiding him to such a good year. His agent will thank them too, it being a contract year. 

However I'd be surprised if he got a 4 year deal. My guess is 3 max, but it is a small quibble. 

[Woof Bronzer]

14 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I didn't say or imply that? I said that the sum total of the Twins' rotation – 5 different pitchers who are healthy, and have essentially pitched like frontline starters all season when healthy – is a rare asset for the playoffs. I find the rotation's quality beyond the top 2 to be what differentiates them and literally said exactly those words in the article. 

Direct quote:  The quality and depth of Minnesota's rotation this year gives them an advantage heading into the playoffs that few teams have ever enjoyed. And I'm not just talking about Twins teams. 

Rarely will you ever see a playoff-bound club this loaded with high-end starting pitching.

Unless we have different definitions of the words "ever", "rarely", and "I'm not just talking about Twins teams", that's exactly what you said.  

[Nine of twelve]

In the olden days (before 1995) having two top-flight starters could get you a World Series win. (The 1987 Twins are exhibit A.) Those days are gone. In today's era having two top-flight starters is obviously good but that's no longer enough. To get 11 or 13 wins a team needs at least 3 and probably 4 starters capable of holding down the other team. That's why it doesn't mean much to compare the rotation on a 2023 team to the rotation on a team from the distant past. I know very little about starting pitching depth on the other postseason-bound teams but I would hazard a guess that we are as well-situated as anyone.